Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

TSLA will be lucky to hold its beta. Already reaching nearing 2X Nasdaq, well on its way to 3X. It’ll get spoofed hard on any further macro rally and sent further down if/when the macros take another dive.

I find it hilarious that some posters try to act like this stock hasn’t been a dog since May 4th. We’re clearly back in the same trading patterns we saw all throughout 2021. Yes the stock eventually broke out, but Tesla crushed earnings and earnings for three fourths of the year and wall st was easily able to take the knees out of the stock every time. Yes this will break out in due time but until then, it’s rinse and repeat

You're simply ignoring data.

May 4th to 24th... absolute dog. Nasdaq -11.3% Tesla -28.45%

May 24th to present... much better than the market. Nasdaq -3.12% Tesla +4.72%

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You're simply ignoring data.

May 4th to 24th... absolute dog. Nasdaq -11.3% Tesla -28.45%

May 24th to present... better than the market. Nasdaq -3.12% Tesla +4.72%

Talk about cherry picking dates lol. May 4th was when the underperformance started. It also coincided with actual news around TSLA which was the Twitter buyout and Elon selling shares. You can’t just magically cut out the worst performing 2 weeks and then say “Look TSLA is outperforming the market!”

And you also can’t just magically leave out actual company performance where Tesla beat both delivery expectations in Q4 and massively beat earnings expectations in Q1. It just makes the underperformance even worse

I’d love to be wrong and TSLA actually gets back to fair valuation no matter what the macros do. But every 2-3 days of outperformance since May 4th has had a following bear raid and underperformance. Rinse and repeat

 

[henchman24]

Talk about cherry picking dates lol. May 4th was when the underperformance started. You can’t just magically cut out the worst performing 2 weeks and then say “Look TSLA is outperforming the market!”

The underpeformance started April 4th. I was using May 4th since that was the date you stated.

May 24 date is important. It was a relative low in May where a dead cat bounce started... to where market has re-tested that low and went lower in June. While Tesla has yet to re-break the low of May 24th. Closest was at the Nasdaq low day of June 16th where Tesla was 1% above the low of May 24th.

 

[Favguy]

True, but hopefully they didn't commit to the trade with a 1-year target for great returns. If they started investing one year ago they most likely don't have huge amounts of money in the marked and should be glad to get the opportunity buy in more at better prices than before. Yes, it's not the same for everyone, but i find it very weird that i can't find anyone who's glad to see the lower prices for their own sake (despite net worth dropping 40% from the top). Again, price target has only gone up for tesla 2025 the last year (due to ASP's increasing faster than cost prices), so both better fundamentals and lower prices should really be something to celebrate at least for the majority of people who's still buying into the marked.

I'm aware of quite a few, including my brother who are delighted with the current lower valuation. Most of the old lags on here who got in early are probably pretty ambivalent over the short term. Personally I did put couple of large "all in" sums in, the first many years ago, and I am now retired from paid work as a result. As I have no earned income to add, I just watch with interest but with a bias we go up sooner rather than later so I can effect some ambitious lifetime plans before I get too decrepit lol!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The underpeformance started April 4th. I was using May 4th since that was the date you stated.

May 24 date is important. It was a relative low in May where a dead cat bounce started... to where market has re-tested that low and went lower in June. While Tesla has yet to re-break the low of May 24th. Closest was at the Nasdaq low day of June 16th where Tesla was 1% above the low of May 24th.

Yeah my bad, meant to say April 4th

 

[ZachF]

The spread between WTI and Brent is now $8…


Oil barrel costs more in euros than dollars in their local markets for the first time since 2000-2001, when the dollar was worth more than the euro while WTI was trading at a premium.

NG is trading at the equivalent of $200+/barrel in energy terms in

 

[Cosmacelf]

The data overall is quite worrying globally. And if Europe catches a nasty virus the effects will be global. This analysis is generic, not country-specific:

Stagflationary global debt crisis looms – and things will get much worse | Nouriel Roubini

There is ample reason to fear big economies such as the US face recession and financial turmoil

www.theguardian.com

(Personally I am in many ways indifferent to this. I have a mild preference for TSLA to stay low for at least 6-months.)

Well the analysis in that article is quite the downer. Key bit:

“The next crisis will not be like its predecessors. In the 1970s, we had stagflation but no massive debt crises because debt levels were low. After 2008, we had a debt crisis followed by low inflation or deflation because the credit crunch had generated a negative demand shock. Today, we face supply shocks in a context of much higher debt levels, implying that we are heading for a combination of 1970s-style stagflation and 2008-style debt crises – that is, a stagflationary debt crisis.”

And because of this, the article predicts a long drawn out recession with a 50% equity market drop in the end. Now, part of the reasoning behind this is that inflation is being driven by supply shocks, not so much loose monetary policy. That’s the one part of the analysis I’m not sure about.

 

[PKEllefsen]

To your post: Timeline is irrelevant; at any future point, one is better off if their purchases were at a lower price than a higher. If one values purchasing at a low, then one must also view purchasing above a low (or not selling) as a negative. Your desire to buy at this price vs 2x is the same scenario as someone who bought and then had the stock price drop 50%. You would not be happy with the rise, so why wouldn't they have saddness about the fall? Regardless of the purchases they can now make, the previous ones were sub-optimal (from an omniscient point of view).

You don't have to be sad that you bought at a higher price despite being happy when the prices drop. Of course it's not a good thing that you could potentially have bought in at a lower price, but no one can predict the marked in the short term. Just because you bought at higher prices doesn't mean it's a bad thing to get a discount on new purchases. Personally I'm more than 100% invested in tesla (everything i have is invested + some margin), my net worth is directly linked with tesla's stock performance, and I'm already at a slight loss in total. Despite this I'd gladly see my net worth drop 50% if that means i will be 10% richer in total in a few years. Of course i feel bad for the people who bought last year and has to liquidate now, and the ones with lots of margin at the edge of getting margin called, and the ones with short term call options who are now below strike price, but I'm also very happy for the people who now has the chance to buy at these lower prices, no matter if they also bought in at higher prices or not. Also the people who bought in at the top last year can still expect great returns as long as their planning to hold their shares.

The general tacit agreement that has developed is to be happy internally if you're able to take advantage of it, but not to expect group joy for the color red, nor advocate for it.

I disagree. Instead of everyone shouting doom and gloom when the marked drops I think it should be very much encouraged to try to cheer people up by trying to make them see the bright side of the situation. I'm not sure why it's frowned upon to try to make the majority of shareholders who's not actually impacted by this (not planning to sell right now) see the positive in this.

I guess this might just be something that is not possible for me to understand on an emotional level. I don't have any negative feelings connected to the downfall in the share price as I'm only seeing my future net worth increase as share price goes down. Seems to me that this is way less normal than i thought.

 

[henchman24]

Yeah my bad, meant to say April 4th

Yup it underperformed for a solid 7-8 weeks. That came after a massive overperformance in March into April. It varies all the time. We are in a period of overperformance that isn't in a period of days, but in weeks. We have catalysts coming up that may spark over or underperformance.

 

[brantse]

Jordan, from the Limiting Factor, who goes very deep into technical things just posted a video about his 4680 cell tear down.

 

[Bladerskb]

Statement still stands that it's not cost effective. I have seen the Huawei demo with their 10s of thousands dollar of Nvidia/Lidar hardware. No better than EAP. Does not make turns, doesn't do unprotected stuff, only goes in a straight line with the ability to change lanes. Also that video had many many cuts. Wake me up when these companies actually make a profit on their cars with that much hardware. NIO may be cooking the books on their margins but more evidence needed.

Wait what? Nothing you said is even remotely true.

You clearly haven't seen the demos so i will give you the benefit of doubt that you are not just blatantly spreading misinformation on purpose because first:

1. The hardware/lidar doesn't cost tens of thousands of dollars
2. It is better than EAP because it does city driving.
3. It does make turns.
4. It does do unprotected turns.
5. It DOESN'T just go in straight line and does MORE than change lanes.
6. There are dozens of un-cut video of Huawei's ADS system and I just posted one.

 

[Big Time]

You don't have to be sad that you bought at a higher price despite being happy when the prices drop. Of course it's not a good thing that you could potentially have bought in at a lower price, but no one can predict the marked in the short term. Just because you bought at higher prices doesn't mean it's a bad thing to get a discount on new purchases. Personally I'm more than 100% invested in tesla (everything i have is invested + some margin), my net worth is directly linked with tesla's stock performance, and I'm already at a slight loss in total. Despite this I'd gladly see my net worth drop 50% if that means i will be 10% richer in total in a few years. Of course i feel bad for the people who bought last year and has to liquidate now, and the ones with lots of margin at the edge of getting margin called, and the ones with short term call options who are now below strike price, but I'm also very happy for the people who now has the chance to buy at these lower prices, no matter if they also bought in at higher prices or not. Also the people who bought in at the top last year can still expect great returns as long as their planning to hold their shares.



I disagree. Instead of everyone shouting doom and gloom when the marked drops I think it should be very much encouraged to try to cheer people up by trying to make them see the bright side of the situation. I'm not sure why it's frowned upon to try to make the majority of shareholders who's not actually impacted by this (not planning to sell right now) see the positive in this.

I guess this might just be something that is not possible for me to understand on an emotional level. I don't have any negative feelings connected to the downfall in the share price as I'm only seeing my future net worth increase as share price goes down. Seems to me that this is way less normal than i thought.

Traits of Toxic Positivity.
i) Hiding/masking your true feelings
ii) Trying to just get on with a situation by dismissing emotions
iii) Feeling guilty for feeling what you feel
iv) Minimizing other people’s sad experiences with ‘feel good’ quotes or statements
v) Trying to give someone perspective instead of validating their emotional experience
vi) Shaming or chastising others for expressing frustration or anything other than positivity

 

[PKEllefsen]

Traits of Toxic Positivity.
i) Hiding/masking your true feelings
ii) Trying to just get on with a situation by dismissing emotions
iii) Feeling guilty for feeling what you feel
iv) Minimizing other people’s sad experiences with ‘feel good’ quotes or statements
v) Trying to give someone perspective instead of validating their emotional experience
vi) Shaming or chastising others for expressing frustration or anything other than positivity

Hahah. Alright then. I'll stick to the sideline for now

 

[Cosmacelf]

This is the dumbest ******** thing. Why are we as a society holding humanity back due to some system of "laws" that were put into place in this one country on this tiny planet. I just posted an article showing again that we could be living in a better world. Damn this pisses me off and shows a lack of clarity in our species ability to do the most efficient thing.

Its called Democracy. The system that is imperfect, yet is better than anything else. Humans are also imperfect.

In this case, the court said that Congress must explicitly either legislate a change in energy policy, or explicitly delegate an agency to craft such. They didn’t like that the EPA could de facto change US energy policy based on an unrelated statute, Ie. Clean air rules. So, up to Congress to hammer out a compromise, and/or the electorate to vote based on this issue.

 

[bkp_duke]

Jordan, from the Limiting Factor, who goes very deep into technical things just posted a video about his 4680 cell tear down.

Got a TL;DW summary?

I like that he did this, seriously. But an 75 minute video? Guy would get a LOT more views if he learned the Rob Maurer method of being information dense and succinct.

 

[StealthP3D]

Stock price is back to where it was in 2021. For some, that was a multimillion rise which evaporated in the last 3 months. Seems hard to expect joy joy feelings about that.

That's funny!

I don't feel joy about the low share price but I'm pretty ambivalent about it because I never treat the current trading price as anything but the price I could sell for right now, if I wanted to sell (or the price I could buy at, if I wanted to buy right now). If I don't want to buy or sell right now, it's pretty meaningless. The problem only arises if an investor looks at his/her investments as cash and, of course, investments are never cash, which is why they are called investments!

I know my holdings this time last year are actually worth considerably more now than they were then, even if the ticker tape is telling me they are worth 1% less. Big whoop-tee-do! Because we are one year closer to billions of batteries, one year closer to 100% EV's and one year closer to the end of the age of petroleum. Everything is progressing magnificently, COVID and supply chain issues as but a minor bump in the road. The ticker is a measure of what someone would pay you right now for your shares, not a measure of what someone would pay you for them when you are ready to sell.

If you want to run with the big dogs, you should be comfortable peeing in the tall grass...

I know with Elon having stopped tweeting many days ago, things are difficult for TSLA speculators looking for a convenient scapegoat, but time will fix this too.

 

[elasalle]

Oct calls anyone? If Q3 is gonna be a rebound, risk/reward might be good.

 

[LYTRIDR]

Got a TL;DW summary?

I like that he did this, seriously. But an 75 minute video? Guy would get a LOT more views if he learned the Rob Maurer method of being information dense and succinct.

I'm sure you are correct that he'd get more views, but likely less revenue. There are dozens of shallow dive Tesla podcasts and Youtube videos out there to choose from if one wants succinct and high value information and Rob's is probably the most valuable if that is what you want. I personally find The Limiting Factor to be the best in terms of deep dives into battery technology and am supporting him on Patreon for this exact reason.

TLF is must watch TSLA info for me and gives information in a digestible way. This info is often not available anywhere else, short of reading/slogging through published research reports and gaining a professional level understanding of the chemistry, processes, supply chain, etc.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Oct calls anyone? If Q3 is gonna be a rebound, risk/reward might be good.

My brain says yes……but 2021 showed me that no matter how right you are in terms of Tesla executing…..Wall st has an amazing ability to cap it over a long duration. So essentially you’re gambling on the timing of the breakout.

I didn’t sell my leaps/calls at the high point but mostly got out of them on that second rebound with some pretty good gains before April hit

 

[insaneoctane]

Nada dry powder and my couches are empty.

Hell I sold my couch on Craigslist for my last buy...