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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Cutting it real close..

Screenshot 2022-06-30 at 17.58.11.png

 
macro
I think the Fed is playing a dangerous game. Raising rates into a weakening economy can cause deflation rather quickly. As these inflation data points keeping coming back, we are seeing them starting to turn prior to the last aggressive increase... with another likely to follow.
 
Interesting number of shares. 4B. That allows for the proposed 3 for 1 split, but will need another increase for next time.

The proposal is to ADD 4 billion common shares to the number currently authorized in Tesla's bylaws. That'll bring the total number of authorized shares up to 6 billion. Additionally, the BoD is granted the authority in the bylaws to issue up to 20% of shares beyond the authorized number.

TL;dr Tesla will be able to do a 3:1 split and an addtional 2:1 split at some future time after this motion passes the shareholder vote.
 
Everyone should read that article.
How many Dr. Doom articles should we read? Dr. Doom Roubini has been predicting economic collapse since around the time I graduated from high school. Had I listened to his dire predictions, I never would have invested a penny of real money. Instead, I trusted my own instincts, that people innovate, economies grow, technology is valuable, money deflates in value, and people work to make better lives for themselves and their families. So I invested and became rich, never paying serious attention to Dr. Doom.

This site puts his net worth at a shockingly low $1-$5 million. He should be worth a lot more if he knew his subject matter! Why does he not have any economic power?


As a worker, I've never made but a small fraction of his salary as a professor of economic knowledge, and I retired over 20 years ago with more than he has now by utilizing first principles thinking, so I'm laughing all the way to the bank!

Why would you want us to pay attention to him? Thankfully, I have paid no heed to his dire predictions my entire life. Do you hate it when people like me become wealthy beyond their wildest dreams by believing we should invest in the future of humanity?
 
Its called Democracy. The system that is imperfect, yet is better than anything else. Humans are also imperfect.

In this case, the court said that Congress must explicitly either legislate a change in energy policy, or explicitly delegate an agency to craft such. They didn’t like that the EPA could de facto change US energy policy based on an unrelated statute, Ie. Clean air rules. So, up to Congress to hammer out a compromise, and/or the electorate to vote based on this issue.
So somebody half the country doesn’t support puts together a committee to talk about putting together an agency less than 10% of the country supports to talk about it. That sounds like an awesome solution. Not that I think the EPA is doing a bang up job. It’s just, well, we’re doomed.

Oh, would you look at that. WallStreet has decided it’s time to let the SP rise to tickle the green. Oh, never mind.
 
I havent seen anyone discuss the huge news that Supreme court limits EPA authority to set pollution limit.

This will set back any goal that the Biden administration tries to do.
 
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I havent seen anyone discuss the huge news that Supreme court limits EPA authority to set pollution limit.

This will set back any goal that the Biden administration tries to do.
That’s because the fossil fuel industry is doing all the leg work all by themselves in terms of making sure the US population switches to EV’s in mass by being greedy and driving gas/energy prices through the roof.

As much as oil/energy prices have and will hurt the economy, the honest truth is the oil industry is speeding up the transition to renewables exponentially faster than the government ever could. Thankfully there’s this small company out there that came up with amazing idea to produce EV’s and battery storage in mass that can take advantage of this exact situation 🤔
 
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How many Dr. Doom articles should we read? Dr. Doom Roubini has been predicting economic collapse since around the time I graduated from high school. Had I listened to his dire predictions, I never would have invested a penny of real money. Instead, I trusted my own instincts, that people innovate, economies grow, technology is valuable, money deflates in value, and people work to make better lives for themselves and their families. So I invested and became rich, never paying serious attention to Dr. Doom.

This site puts his net worth at a shockingly low $1-$5 million. He should be worth a lot more if he knew his subject matter! Why does he not have any economic power?


As a worker, I've never made but a small fraction of his salary as a professor of economic knowledge, and I retired over 20 years ago with more than he has now by utilizing first principles thinking, so I'm laughing all the way to the bank!

Why would you want us to pay attention to him? Thankfully, I have paid no heed to his dire predictions my entire life. Do you hate it when people like me become wealthy beyond their wildest dreams by believing we should invest in the future of humanity?
Reminds me of this gem

kiyosaki_crash_calls_2021-2048x967-1200x567.jpg
 
Well the analysis in that article is quite the downer.

They don't call him "Dr. Doom" without good reason. It's who he is. He is incapable of seeing anything as a positive. If you gave him a Tesla for his birthday he would say "Oh, great, just what I need! Have you seen how high my electric bills already are? How am I going to afford this?"
 
I am maxed out on margin. I got margin called again this week. I've lost count of how many times it's happened this year. Probably around 30 times. Margin calls are a reversible process, although the buying and selling comes with tax consequences. When the share price rises, I get more margin credit and can buy more shares. The risk is that the share price never rises, which is extremely unlikely for TSLA in my estimation.

I also quit my job in January. Investments are my only source of cash right now. TSLA is down 40%. My portfolio is down 75% because I've stayed fully margined and steadily bought calls all the way down.

If this were happening because of Tesla performing badly, that would be concerning. Instead, it has resulted in a chance to sell off large portions of my share stash to purchase 2023 and 2024 calls at obscenely low prices. The longer this goes on, the cheaper the calls become. I wasn't even playing with options before this happened, but the prices became so compelling I couldn't ignore options any longer.

If my expectations for profit growth and share price appreciation are accurate at all, then this opportunity is very beneficial and I will make millions or potentially tens of millions that I wouldn't have dreamed of six months ago. A Jan 20 2023 $1300 call is only $13 today. If TSLA hits $2000 by then, the call would return 52x. Deals like this can be found all across the call spread, especially for anything with strike prices above the all-time high for TSLA.

Do I feel happy about this? Sometimes yes, sometimes no, because emotions in investing don't make sense. The feelings deserve to be dismissed and reprogrammed, because they're optimized for survival and reproduction in a hunter-gatherer society out in the wild, not optimized for investing in 2022. Green feels concrete and immediate. Expectations of much bigger future green feel abstract and uncertain. On the other hand, I feel excitement about now having the prospect of hitting 8 figures before I'm 30 years old. I feel glad I'll most likely be able to accelerate my life plans for dreams I thought I'd have to wait decades to get started on. I think about gigantic charity donations, buying a house in Hawaii to fix up, and finally supplementing my muscle-powered two-wheeled aluminum chariot with a Tesla. The feeling depends on the focus.

Luckily, I'm an engineer and part robot, so I have some 420, throw on some music and look at the math again. Clear path to average gross profit per car around $23-27k by this time next year. 3 million delivery annualized run rate sometime in the next few quarters. OpEx growing slowly. Vegas Loop coming. FSD improving. Etc. Times look pretty good to me. We're not far off from our first quarter with $10 billion earnings.
 
I didn't want to mention it, but the other Black Swan event: the Chinese take over the US - they've already taken over most of Africa BTW, for the US it's be the unexpected variation of Lenin's famous words - "The (so-called) capitalists will sell us the rope by which we'll enslave them" - we already sold our tech to the Chinese in the 70's for short term profits (thanks GE leader of the trend genius not so genius after all Jack Welch).

They are well on their way to seriously challenging the USD, after having bought most of the (real) gold available. (We still don't know how much real gold is stored in Fort Knox BTW)

And we know our politicians can be bought for votes. The UAW currently. And (sorry to repeat for long time readers, but for newbies, always a good reminder): it's the Chinese gov who saved Tesla from the short term profit driven capitalists of the day, suicidal long term, but they truly don't care. They truly liberated Tesla from their dependence on the US capital markets.

The Third Black Swan event is more likely than both previous ones, curious to hear if anyone has any idea - message me privately.
I don't want to be difficult because after all Black Swan can cover many scenarios, however unlikely. To be fair, to appear to ascribe Chinese success to intellectual property theft is huge stretch. I do not want to have a political discussion because I don't think that belongs here.
Hopefully we all might avoid unneeded political hyperbole.

I apologize if my disagreement offends you. However, introducing politics here offends me.
 
I don’t agree that this is an advantage. What you’re capturing here is the relative convenience of ICE refueling vs EV charging. From that point of view, my Model S is much more convenient than an ICE car because it charges up completely as I sleep. The only time I have to charge on the road is during long trips where superchargers are a welcome 20 minute break.

Many people seem to think we need thousands of charging stations like gas stations but that’s not the best solution.
The most convenient outcome for drivers of the future will be charging points all over the place. Home, work, mall, grocery store, parking lots, light poles. It doesn’t matter how fast or slow the charging is if you’re off doing something else while it’s charging.

Get out, plug in, and forget about it. No special trips to charge or fill up.
Definitely agree on the local trips - had my Y for a year now, and love never visiting a station.
Now I'm on my second major road trip - 1000 miles so far. About half my charges have been no (or limited) hassle; they were convenient to my route and I wanted a break or have a meal anyway. A couple have been a real drag though - not near mealtimes, and 30+ minutes charging, or in one case a solid 15-20 minutes off my route, with the chargers in the back of a hotel (I like those a lot less than the ones at the travel/truck stops as I feel like I'm intruding on their 'real' business - maybe my issue, curious if anyone else feels that way).
The EV road trip experience is worse than ones in my old Prius at those times. It would be greatly enhanced by a few more chargers located at (IMHO) more appropriate businesses than hotels one is not staying at.
I love these road trips - look, I'm in an EV going cross country! - but I am an enthusiast. New EV owners, possibly new Model 3 Hertz renters, generally will not come from that same mindset. Having to divert 20 minutes off route, wait 30 minutes at the back of a parking lot, then return 20 minutes back on route is NOT fun for these folks. Not that much fun for me either. We need more chargers, and yes I have noticed a lot of new ones going up in the last 6 months. Hoping we keep it up.
 
I am maxed out on margin. I got margin called again this week. I've lost count of how many times it's happened this year. Probably around 30 times. Margin calls are a reversible process, although the buying and selling comes with tax consequences. When the share price rises, I get more margin credit and can buy more shares. The risk is that the share price never rises, which is extremely unlikely for TSLA in my estimation.

I also quit my job in January. Investments are my only source of cash right now. TSLA is down 40%. My portfolio is down 75% because I've stayed fully margined and steadily bought calls all the way down.

If this were happening because of Tesla performing badly, that would be concerning. Instead, it has resulted in a chance to sell off large portions of my share stash to purchase 2023 and 2024 calls at obscenely low prices. The longer this goes on, the cheaper the calls become. I wasn't even playing with options before this happened, but the prices became so compelling I couldn't ignore options any longer.

If my expectations for profit growth and share price appreciation are accurate at all, then this opportunity is very beneficial and I will make millions or potentially tens of millions that I wouldn't have dreamed of six months ago. A Jan 20 2023 $1300 call is only $13 today. If TSLA hits $2000 by then, the call would return 52x. Deals like this can be found all across the call spread, especially for anything with strike prices above the all-time high for TSLA.

Do I feel happy about this? Sometimes yes, sometimes no, because emotions in investing don't make sense. The feelings deserve to be dismissed and reprogrammed, because they're optimized for survival and reproduction in a hunter-gatherer society out in the wild, not optimized for investing in 2022. Green feels concrete and immediate. Expectations of much bigger future green feel abstract and uncertain. On the other hand, I feel excitement about now having the prospect of hitting 8 figures before I'm 30 years old. I feel glad I'll most likely be able to accelerate my life plans for dreams I thought I'd have to wait decades to get started on. I think about gigantic charity donations, buying a house in Hawaii to fix up, and finally supplementing my muscle-powered two-wheeled aluminum chariot with a Tesla. The feeling depends on the focus.

Luckily, I'm an engineer and part robot, so I have some 420, throw on some music and look at the math again. Clear path to average gross profit per car around $23-27k by this time next year. 3 million delivery annualized run rate sometime in the next few quarters. OpEx growing slowly. Vegas Loop coming. FSD improving. Etc. Times look pretty good to me. We're not far off from our first quarter with $10 billion earnings.
This post worries me. When steady losses lead to doubling down there is rarely a good solution. People who were investors through 2008 tend to know that. People who were investors in 1973 know it even better. We know have major global events that are close analogues for those two events, and others. There is no way for anyone to know how long this disarray will continue. The US Supreme Court decision regarding EPA powers presents higher risk to Renewable energy and BEV adoption. In this environment you might lose 100% or more. Please think about that while you still have net worth.

I admit it. This is advice, just not about any given security.
 
I was burned too hard on the drop so I'm sticking to 2024s still. Trying not to be greedy.

This is me also. My (comparatively small) non-IRA trading account was wiped out almost completely. My IRA is about 50-60% of peak.

I've got a lot of LEAPs out there, mostly 2024s because I got burned badly on short - mid term stuff.

Good news is at least some of the shares were bought with money from Netflix I sold at $550/ share (now $178). And I sold Amazon before it crashed to buy Tesla... before it crashed.