Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I definitely didn’t get out unscathed. Even though I made a good gain on all the leaps I bought all throughout early/mid 2021, my portfolio is still down 60% from the highs of Nov (when those leaps were extremely valuable)

I was super smart and cashed about 20% of my holdings out when we hit $1200. (hurray me!)

Unfortunately, I invested that money elsewhere and did not do as well as Tesla has done. (boo me!)

 

[GOVA]

FYI/OT:

Lucid factory build video - Notice the solar roofed parking/charging spots. I wish this was mandated from now on.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Might just be my trips, but I can't recall a time where I've had to go more than 10 minutes off route. Most of the time it is just a stoplight or two. And I almost never actually charge 30 minutes (15-20 is common). Are you riding the charging curve or going to set percentages?

Ya 10 mins is easy stuff compared to boating on Lake Powell. I used to burn 10 gal going out of our way just to get 25 gal at Dangling Rope Marina at 2x the prices. Then try heading up to Leap Frog, we could only visit about 3-4 canyons before fuel again was the issue. We all accepted this as boaters. It was 10 time as challenging on waters vs the road, but somehow an extra 10 min for EVs is unacceptable, go figure.

in-post Off-Topic Mod edit: I believe that’s Bullfrog, not Leap Frog.

 

[Bladerskb]

If you understand Chinese, this is the customer version of the car which only does EAP stuff. We are comparing apples to apples right? Or are we comparing some car you can't buy vs a car you can buy.

I'm confused. What in the world are you saying? There are no consumer version of the car. ITS THE SAME CAR.
There's the regular version without any of the Huawei hardware (360 cameras, 360 radars and front lidars). And then the HI version (stands for Huawei Inside) With the hardware and software from Huawei.

Its called -

ARCFOX Alpha S Huawei HI​

ARCFOX Alpha S Huawei HI Version to Be Delivered in July - Pandaily

ARCFOX, a brand owned by BAIC BluePark New Energy, announced the new HI version of its Alpha S model will be delivered to those who had paid in full or had made substantial deposits later in July.

pandaily.com

Its been available for purchase and delivery starts in 2 days (july).

 

[Singuy]

I'm confused. What in the world are you saying? There are no consumer version of the car. ITS THE SAME CAR.
There's the regular version without any of the Huawei hardware (360 cameras, 360 radars and front lidars). And then the HI version (stands for Huawei Inside) With the hardware and software from Huawei.

Its called -

ARCFOX Alpha S Huawei HI​

ARCFOX Alpha S Huawei HI Version to Be Delivered in July - Pandaily

ARCFOX, a brand owned by BAIC BluePark New Energy, announced the new HI version of its Alpha S model will be delivered to those who had paid in full or had made substantial deposits later in July.

pandaily.com

Its been available for purchase and delivery starts in 2 days (july).

I don't know, it's what the host said. "This is the consumer version of the car" in chinese.

 

[Krugerrand]

Thank you for your concern, but I am a cockroach financially. I've been living in one of the most expensive cities in the world for $25k per year. The most expensive thing I own is my barbell equipment. I could go work at my neighborhood Chipotle and save 20-30% of the income easily.

I can also get another engineering job as @Krugerrand pointed out. My knowledge and skills have increased in retirement because I've been using the time to learn.

Tesla has positive cashflow now, and it's growing fast. I can't generate a realistic pessimistic scenario where Tesla earns less than $25 per share next year. How low can the current P/E ratio get? Even at 20x, that's a $500 share price, more than enough to enable me to pay off the margin debt and eat losses on all of the calls.

The crash and burn scenario for my TSLA investment still leaves me with net assets that exceed those of the majority of Americans in my age bracket. These are 1st World problems. I have comfortable shelter, I'm well-fed, I'm healthy and no one is trying to kill me. Everything beyond that is a bonus. That's fundamentally why I'm remaining calm in this market crash. What I'm actually worried about is global ecological collapse, so I'm aggressively applying almost all my economic power to help mitigate that risk and encouraging others richer than I am to do the same. Hence why I'm posting here in this forum with apparently at least $1 billion in total assets.

See, everyone. Zero chance this dude ever has a wife (or partner) and kids to worry about. He’s our very own Antman, but when he was younger.

 

[SOULPEDL]

FYI/OT:

Lucid factory build video - Notice the solar roofed parking/charging spots. I wish this was mandated from now on.

Funny joke, my Turo Model X rental last month to LA had "LUCID 3" for Az plates! I'd got looks at superchargers, lol.

The owner sold his TSLA stocks and invested in LUCID. When asked what the margins were, he said "They're going to be through the roof because they're also going vertical and making everything mostly in-house."

Any truth to this? Is there an affordable version coming for some volume sales? Wrights law applies. Vertical is one thing, volume sales is mandatory.

 

[Nocturnal]

Funny joke, my Turo Model X rental last month to LA had "LUCID 3" for Az plates! I'd got looks at superchargers, lol.

The owner sold his TSLA stocks and invested in LUCID. When asked what the margins were, he said "They're going to be through the roof because they're also going vertical and making everything mostly in-house."

Any truth to this? Is there an affordable version coming for some volume sales? Wrights law applies. Vertical is one thing, volume sales is mandatory.

No, because they spend time/money on crap like this.

 

[henchman24]

I frankly don't see a thing about Lucid that makes me want to invest in them. Trade.. yeah I can see short term buys and sells or option plays. But invest... not a single thing. Rivian has some enticing parts, but the need to get control of their op ex in a big way.

 

[Artful Dodger]

if I had access to CCS chargers

So, get the Tesla S.Korea CCS1 adapter (and buy a damn folding bike!)

Tesla CCS Adapter: Everything you need to know! (USA) | Youtube May 29, 2022 (14:22)

Happy trails!

 

[Singuy]

Funny joke, my Turo Model X rental last month to LA had "LUCID 3" for Az plates! I'd got looks at superchargers, lol.

The owner sold his TSLA stocks and invested in LUCID. When asked what the margins were, he said "They're going to be through the roof because they're also going vertical and making everything mostly in-house."

Any truth to this? Is there an affordable version coming for some volume sales? Wrights law applies. Vertical is one thing, volume sales is mandatory.

Vertically integration is not the magic word at margin expansion. Relentless cost cutting or die is. Vertically integrating actually increase cost and reduce manufacturing efficiency. Tesla only Vertically integrate on things they can do better or cheaper in the long run. Lucid doesn't even know which way their underwear goes on because they are showered with cash. They may end up vertigrating something that is stupid.

 

[Matias]

I am maxed out on margin. I got margin called again this week. I've lost count of how many times it's happened this year. Probably around 30 times. Margin calls are a reversible process, although the buying and selling comes with tax consequences. When the share price rises, I get more margin credit and can buy more shares. The risk is that the share price never rises, which is extremely unlikely for TSLA in my estimation.

I also quit my job in January. Investments are my only source of cash right now. TSLA is down 40%. My portfolio is down 75% because I've stayed fully margined and steadily bought calls all the way down.

If this were happening because of Tesla performing badly, that would be concerning. Instead, it has resulted in a chance to sell off large portions of my share stash to purchase 2023 and 2024 calls at obscenely low prices. The longer this goes on, the cheaper the calls become. I wasn't even playing with options before this happened, but the prices became so compelling I couldn't ignore options any longer.

If my expectations for profit growth and share price appreciation are accurate at all, then this opportunity is very beneficial and I will make millions or potentially tens of millions that I wouldn't have dreamed of six months ago. A Jan 20 2023 $1300 call is only $13 today. If TSLA hits $2000 by then, the call would return 52x. Deals like this can be found all across the call spread, especially for anything with strike prices above the all-time high for TSLA.

Do I feel happy about this? Sometimes yes, sometimes no, because emotions in investing don't make sense. The feelings deserve to be dismissed and reprogrammed, because they're optimized for survival and reproduction in a hunter-gatherer society out in the wild, not optimized for investing in 2022. Green feels concrete and immediate. Expectations of much bigger future green feel abstract and uncertain. On the other hand, I feel excitement about now having the prospect of hitting 8 figures before I'm 30 years old. I feel glad I'll most likely be able to accelerate my life plans for dreams I thought I'd have to wait decades to get started on. I think about gigantic charity donations, buying a house in Hawaii to fix up, and finally supplementing my muscle-powered two-wheeled aluminum chariot with a Tesla. The feeling depends on the focus.

Luckily, I'm an engineer and part robot, so I have some 420, throw on some music and look at the math again. Clear path to average gross profit per car around $23-27k by this time next year. 3 million delivery annualized run rate sometime in the next few quarters. OpEx growing slowly. Vegas Loop coming. FSD improving. Etc. Times look pretty good to me. We're not far off from our first quarter with $10 billion earnings.

I hope this is a parody

 

[Electroman]

"Pro Tip" If you are on windy roads and you can move the speed/ follow distance wheel to get rid of/ avoid seeing the nag. I tend to do this on windy roads more than nudge the wheel so I don't disengage by mistake. Just tick cruise speed down one then back up every 20 seconds or when the warning pings.

(Or maybe no-so-pro tip)

Actually I scroll the volume wheel on the left.

 

[henchman24]

I have had to deviate quite far a few times.

There are corridors near me where I frequently out-and-back and Superchargers are quite scarce. If I pop over to the coast and spend a couple of days near Yachats, I'm in the middle of a charging desert and have to drive up to Lincoln City. (They are installing a charger closer soon!). Similarly, if I have a full day along Highway 58 or Highway 126, or huge swaths of eastern Oregon, Superchargers are few and far between. They work fine if you are passing through, but if you are doing an out and back or linger for a few days, you are kind of stuck going well off course.

All of this is exacerbated by the fact that I often have 2 bikes on the back of the car. If I didn't have bikes destroying my range; if I had my Cybertruck and could tuck the bikes inside; if I could use Electrify America chargers; or if there were just 3 more well placed Superchargers it wouldn't be an issue.

Really... if I had access to CCS chargers... that would add just enough extra fill-in locations to make most of this go away.

Rural areas are where I think things are really lacking and that is where I think Tesla has to really improve (and CCS since they are basically non existent in my area). My state (Wyoming) has massive voids where I can't really make a trip in my car. Not that I'd really want to given the terrain I'd be going to, but when I get the CT, I'll be wanting to go back there (Tesla, if you're reading... please get a Lander or Riverton station ASAP). If you're traveling on interstates, it'll be pretty rare to have to deviate a larger distance.

At least in Oregon you have low speed limits to help your efficiency!

 

[Ogre]

So, get the Tesla S.Korea CCS1 adapter (and buy a damn folding bike!)

Was planning on getting the adaptor. Just wanted to wait for the official supported in US one. My luck I'll go to the effort of getting the import one, pay too much and they'll put them up on Tesla.com for $50 the week after.

I've folded a bike before... wound up in the hospital. Hard pass.

 

[Ohmster]

Bias much?

Tesla's run of record deliveries may be reaching the end of the road

Tesla Inc is expected to end its nearly two-year-long run of record quarterly deliveries as a prolonged COVID-related shutdown in Shanghai hit its production and supply chain, and it slowly ramps up new factories.

www.reuters.com

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Bias much?

Tesla's run of record deliveries may be reaching the end of the road

Tesla Inc is expected to end its nearly two-year-long run of record quarterly deliveries as a prolonged COVID-related shutdown in Shanghai hit its production and supply chain, and it slowly ramps up new factories.

www.reuters.com

Give Reuter's a break......they're not going to be able to run that story for the next 8 straight quarters at minimum

You know they couldn't resist

 

[mongo]

Bias much?

Tesla's run of record deliveries may be reaching the end of the road

Tesla Inc is expected to end its nearly two-year-long run of record quarterly deliveries as a prolonged COVID-related shutdown in Shanghai hit its production and supply chain, and it slowly ramps up new factories.

www.reuters.com

Who knew overcoming seasonal Q1 weakness could be a bad thing...
At least the string of record yearly vehicle production will continue.

 

[henchman24]

Bias much?

Tesla's run of record deliveries may be reaching the end of the road

Tesla Inc is expected to end its nearly two-year-long run of record quarterly deliveries as a prolonged COVID-related shutdown in Shanghai hit its production and supply chain, and it slowly ramps up new factories.

www.reuters.com

Won't happen, but it would be hilarious if Tesla just squeaked by Q1.

 

[jerry33]

I often go to a set charge, and yes the 15-20 minutes off route has only happened once to me - but my point remains even in your admittedly rosier scenario. 10 minutes off track + 20 minute charge + 10 minutes back on route = 40 minutes, no bueno if it wasn't mealtime. An ICE vehicle on the same route probably fills in 2 minutes, and is a lot more likely to be close to a gas station to start with.
Again, I'm all in on this - made it a point to bring the Tesla on this trip, but I won't pretend we don't have a ways to go on things like road trips away from major highways.

I found that there was no difference in travel time between the Tesla and the Prius. A lot of difference between comfort and fatigue at the end of the day. About 80K trip miles in both (2004-present). (Assumes you use proper charging techniques in the Tesla and have a long range version).