Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Tesla’s executives are helping vehicle deliveries as Q2 2022 comes to a close

With Tesla closing its second quarter, it is no surprise that some of the company's executives are helping deliver vehicles to customers.

www.teslarati.com

(Link was posted here already just context)

Not long ago there was a big underlying theme that Musk doesn't give a damn about SP.


I'd love to hear some theories about why Tesla management is pushing so hard at the moment if they don't care about SP. Just doesn't track with me.

 

[Todd Burch]

Just a fyi, the Suprme court EPA decision has zero bearing on Tesla. Zero.

It sucks for the planet since polluters won’t be held accountable. But renewables have already hit the inflection point of demand. There’s no turning back now. Especially that Tesla is at scale now

Most car companies produce their vehicles internationally though, so they'll probably already at the minimum meet the emission standards of other countries. If anything, this might put Tesla further ahead if some companies feel less compelled to drive forward on emission standards. Ultimately, they'll have to sell in EU or wherever, where there ARE standards that must be met.

Having said that, definitely a poor decision for the planet.

 

[2daMoon]

Not long ago there was a big underlying theme that Musk doesn't give a damn about SP.

I'd love to hear some theories about why Tesla management is pushing so hard at the moment if they don't care about SP. Just doesn't track with me.

Maybe they just want to keep rolling with maximizing the Y/Y production increases for bragging rights.

Let's be realistic. Has the release of (impossibly gigantic) Y/Y production and delivery numbers ever been consistently impactful to the SP?

 

[Singuy]

Tesla’s executives are helping vehicle deliveries as Q2 2022 comes to a close

With Tesla closing its second quarter, it is no surprise that some of the company's executives are helping deliver vehicles to customers.

www.teslarati.com

(Link was posted here already just context)

Not long ago there was a big underlying theme that Musk doesn't give a damn about SP.


I'd love to hear some theories about why Tesla management is pushing so hard at the moment if they don't care about SP. Just doesn't track with me.

A publicly traded company is graded quarterly. Musk cares about breaking records and showing naysayers Tesla can do the impossible. If you don't give everything you got, MSM will take a miss in _________ and runs with it. In fact even when they try their hardest, MSM still spins their efforts into a negative way. At least this mitigate lots of it.

 

[Singuy]

Is it me or today's macro price action seems bullish to me? Vix couldn't break 29. I ask myself why is a Vix of 30 such a strong resistance today in a bear market? We should cut through that like hot knife on butter....

 

[AudubonB]

This post worries me. When steady losses lead to doubling down there is rarely a good solution. People who were investors through 2008 tend to know that. People who were investors in 1973 know it even better. We know have major global events that are close analogues for those two events, and others. There is no way for anyone to know how long this disarray will continue. The US Supreme Court decision regarding EPA powers presents higher risk to Renewable energy and BEV adoption. In this environment you might lose 100% or more. Please think about that while you still have net worth.

I admit it. This is advice, just not about any given security.

It is terrific to have another long-in-the-tooth long-term investor join the discussion. Keep up the insights!

 

[Ogre]

Maybe they just want to keep rolling with maximizing the Y/Y production increases for bragging rights.

Let's be realistic. Has the release of (impossibly gigantic) Y/Y production and delivery numbers ever been consistently impactful to the SP?

Is this meant as sarcasm?

I mean... I assume it is but it sounds so much like the sort of thing which bears do say.

Well played.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Is it me or today's macro price action seems bullish to me? Vix couldn't break 29. I ask myself why is a Vix of 30 such a strong resistance today in a bear market? We should cut through that like hot knife on butter....

This entire bear market has been an orderly selloff. No one is panicking, they just took their profits from the last 2 years of insane pandemic fueled QE and filed calmly to the exits. It's the exact opposite of the panic that happened in early 2020.

 

[ZsoZso]

I am maxed out on margin. I got margin called again this week. I've lost count of how many times it's happened this year. Probably around 30 times. Margin calls are a reversible process, although the buying and selling comes with tax consequences. When the share price rises, I get more margin credit and can buy more shares. The risk is that the share price never rises, which is extremely unlikely for TSLA in my estimation.

I also quit my job in January. Investments are my only source of cash right now. TSLA is down 40%. My portfolio is down 75% because I've stayed fully margined and steadily bought calls all the way down.

I have started playing with options in January (prior to that I have been just HODLing TSLA since 2014).
Margin calls introduced themselves to me first at the end of February when Russia invaded Ukraine and the market had a big drop at the start of day (which recovered by the end of the day, but my broker got me into panic mode before that reversal), then got another at the end of April when Elon started selling TSLA to raise money for Twitter causing a sharp drop. In both cases, I had made some stupid trades quickly to "fix" my margin problem, that cost me significant losses on my portfolio -- and I mean actual realized losses, not paper-loss due to drop in portfolio value (which happens a lot to TSLA shares that we are HODLing but is temporary and immaterial as long as you keep HODLing and not panic-sell).

Subsequently to these disasters to my portfolio, I learned about a nice option-combo called Risk-Reversal. You can enter such combo at zero cost (sell covered calls on your TSLA shares and buy put options for the same amount of money) and it will significantly increase your margin cushion. The stock has dropped a lot more since my last margin call, but I never received another, because I monitor how much cushion I have left and just enter a risk-reversal combo if I am getting close to danger -- usually I just go a week out in expiry date, pick a call strike that feels safe (~20% OTM) and a put strike with roughly the same premium on that expiry date.

Not an advice, just a story of how I have been avoiding the dreaded Margin Call in this bear market.

 

[Krugerrand]

Bullish!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1542573284742553600

Damn it! There goes another few billion up in smoke. When will the insanity stop. This is going to require another round of layoffs at the minimum.

 

[Krugerrand]

I wonder if the Fed thinks comprehensively about rising energy prices.

On one hand, rising energy prices show up as inflation in the data.

On the other hand, higher energy prices themselves act directly to slow the economy. After all, energy is an input to many parts of the economy, e.g. manufacturing and agriculture, and is not just a consumable, e.g. home heating.

I’m inclined to think that the Fed may not assess and factor in the latter consideration sufficiently, if only because it may be hard to do so. So the Fed may be overshooting the mark on raising rates.

I’m inclined to think the Fed is just winging it. Like all the time. Like a monkey throwing darts randomly, only not as accurately.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

55 page thread on the swap for a 3/Y-- relies on a 3rd party wiring adapter (or build your own) and finding an SC willing to both sell you the correct part, and then someone in service willing to push a SW reinstall- or DIY on the SW part by going to an SC and putting car in service mode yourself (as apparently the car won't charge till that happens)

Retrofit CCS compatibility onto earlier (NA) Model 3 - DIY approach

Retrospective thread-summary pseudo-wiki for quick access: What is it? "Gee, I wish my Tesla, despite having access to the country's biggest quick charging network, could also charge on stations made for Other EVs too". Said no-one ever. Except... well, there are use cases for it. And with Tesla...

teslamotorsclub.com

But yeah ideally once the adapter is in the US they'll offer an "official" retrofit.

Any informed speculation on when that will be or is it just better to get it out of Korea.

And second question:, any chances of the Tesla Korean units being “disabled” in some way shape or form?

Thanks.

 

[Nocturnal]

I’m inclined to think the Fed is just winging it. Like all the time. Like a monkey throwing darts randomly, only not as accurately.

“Give me a one-handed economist! All my economists say ‘on the one hand… [and then] on the other.'”
-Harry Truman

 

[MartinAustin]

Can anyone help? I can't understand what information to provide to Tesla for the annual shareholder's meting raffle. Here's Tesla's requirements:

2. Eligibility. Each applicant will be required to submit proper evidence of stock ownership as of June 6, 2022, which must be one of the following and must show the name of the stockholder:

For “stockholders of record” on June 6, 2022,

• a “Notice of Internet Availability” or paper proxy card that was sent to the stockholder; or
• a statement of ownership from Tesla’s transfer agent, Computershare, confirming stock ownership as of June 6, 2022.

For “beneficial owners” on June 6, 2022,

• a notice regarding the 2022 Annual Meeting received from the broker, bank or other organization through which shares were held; or
• a “legal proxy” document from such organization indicating the stockholder’s authority to vote the shares at the 2022 Annual Meeting; or
• a statement or letter from such organization confirming stock ownership as of June 6, 2022.

Anyone got any idea what sort of PDF Tesla is asking for? My stock is in a Fidelity account. I think I fall into the "stockholders of record" group.

 

[samn]

Any informed speculation on when that will be or is it just better to get it out of Korea.

And second question:, any chances of the Tesla Korean units being “disabled” in some way shape or form?

Thanks.

I believe Tesla deliveries to South Korea come from Fremont. Logically it would make sense that this is the same adapter they would/will use in North America but that they haven't rolled it out here because of the legacy cars that don't have CCS support. So more work and bigger commitment to support it here. My guess is it will be supported here at some point.

 

[brantse]

Can anyone help? I can't understand what information to provide to Tesla for the annual shareholder's meting raffle. Here's Tesla's requirements:

2. Eligibility. Each applicant will be required to submit proper evidence of stock ownership as of June 6, 2022, which must be one of the following and must show the name of the stockholder:

For “stockholders of record” on June 6, 2022,

• a “Notice of Internet Availability” or paper proxy card that was sent to the stockholder; or
• a statement of ownership from Tesla’s transfer agent, Computershare, confirming stock ownership as of June 6, 2022.

For “beneficial owners” on June 6, 2022,

• a notice regarding the 2022 Annual Meeting received from the broker, bank or other organization through which shares were held; or
• a “legal proxy” document from such organization indicating the stockholder’s authority to vote the shares at the 2022 Annual Meeting; or
• a statement or letter from such organization confirming stock ownership as of June 6, 2022.

Anyone got any idea what sort of PDF Tesla is asking for? My stock is in a Fidelity account. I think I fall into the "stockholders of record" group.

I asked my broker (TD Ameritrade) to send me something stating my shares on June 6. They did, but it took a day or two.

 

[Discoducky]

Can anyone help? I can't understand what information to provide to Tesla for the annual shareholder's meting raffle. Here's Tesla's requirements:

2. Eligibility. Each applicant will be required to submit proper evidence of stock ownership as of June 6, 2022, which must be one of the following and must show the name of the stockholder:

For “stockholders of record” on June 6, 2022,

• a “Notice of Internet Availability” or paper proxy card that was sent to the stockholder; or
• a statement of ownership from Tesla’s transfer agent, Computershare, confirming stock ownership as of June 6, 2022.

For “beneficial owners” on June 6, 2022,

• a notice regarding the 2022 Annual Meeting received from the broker, bank or other organization through which shares were held; or
• a “legal proxy” document from such organization indicating the stockholder’s authority to vote the shares at the 2022 Annual Meeting; or
• a statement or letter from such organization confirming stock ownership as of June 6, 2022.

Anyone got any idea what sort of PDF Tesla is asking for? My stock is in a Fidelity account. I think I fall into the "stockholders of record" group.

My legal documents are just emails and none have my name on them, just a control number...

 

[MP3Mike]

For “beneficial owners” on June 6, 2022,

• a notice regarding the 2022 Annual Meeting received from the broker, bank or other organization through which shares were held; or
• a “legal proxy” document from such organization indicating the stockholder’s authority to vote the shares at the 2022 Annual Meeting; or
• a statement or letter from such organization confirming stock ownership as of June 6, 2022.

Anyone got any idea what sort of PDF Tesla is asking for? My stock is in a Fidelity account. I think I fall into the "stockholders of record" group.

You would be a "beneficial owner" since Fidelity is holding the shares in your name. You could request a legal proxy document from Fidelity, but you aren't likely to get it in time. So your two choices are:

• Provide a copy of the notice you receive from Fidelity about the meeting. (You may receive an email, or if you get stuff via paper you will have to wait for it to show up in the mail.)
• Provide a copy of your June brokerage statement that shows you held shares on June 6th. (i.e. you held shares before and didn't sell them prior to June 6th.)

 

[ABCTG]

re, discussion of the European Union (EU) 2035 new ICE sale ban;

There hasn't been much discussion of this EU 2035 ICE ban, probably because most know that there won't be any sales of new ICE in 2035 anyway, with or without a ban on new ICE sales.

The EU already has sales of 10% EVs and is just getting started on an exponential S curve of EV sales.

So what does an EU ICE ban in 2035 do?

It provides a unified clarity for all the EU automakers.

It signals to EU auto workers that change will come.

The ban takes effect in 13 years. So, if it takes at least 7-10 years for a traditional automaker to bring a newly designed car to market, the automakers must begin to cease all plans for new ICE vehicles.

Many Chinese automakers already sell EVs in Europe, and if the EU automakers do not switch to EVs, the Chinese will own the Europe EV auto market anyway.


My back of the napkin total future ICE sales number for the EU between now and 2035 (based on the exponential rise in EV sales alone) is 45 million total, and if the ban does stand, then that will be it for ICE sales in the EU.

 

[jerry33]

Indeed, one of the big reasons I brought the Model Y (LR) on this trip is the comfort. Way better than the Prius. I have some driving stress at the end of the day depending on traffic and weather conditions, but the comfort, the higher ride, the effortlessness of passing the big rigs, the voice-responsive stereo and nav (if you are in cell range anyway!), all add up to a good experience. I just (again, sounding like a broken record) won't say that we've solved road trips for new EV users, certainly not everywhere in this great land of ours. Plenty of them won't want the long stops all the time. And most of my current trip is NOT interstates - Tesla has those covered very well.
And no, I'm not a "real" Tesla owner yet, as I have yet to arrive at a Supercharger in the middle of a 100+ mile charging desert in the single digits of battery remaining . Got close on this trip... but I'm traveling with a partner who may have less appetite for arriving at 3% than I do...
I do have a CCS adapter now, but mostly where I've been going, it would not have helped. Glad I have it and PlugShare though, just in case.
I did practice with the CCS once, got myself a ChargePoint account to make sure the adapter worked. The 125 kW charger gave me 28 kW. Could be the adapter, not sure, but it did reinforce the dominance of the current SC network over the competition. Although those nifty CCS/Chademo chargers do have pretty colorful screens, big scrolly text, etc., I like to think the very Spartan SC design costs Tesla a lot less in maintenance over the years.

Most stops are ten to fifteen minutes, which gives you enough time to make a pit stop and buy a drink (This has been true since 2015 when Superchargers were available where I travel most often--Today I just get in and go, much different than it was in 2013 when you had to plan carefully so you didn't spend all day charging at RV parks). Charging is complete when you get back to the car (or a very few minutes afterwards. The exception is when the distance to the next Supercharger is more than the usual 100 to 150 miles. Basically you want to charge enough to get to the next destination with a bit of extra to cover the unforeseen.