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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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That wouldn't work in Oregon.
Yeah, I found THAT out the hard way! Fortunately was staying nearby, tried to gas up in the evening-no go (Oregon required attendants fuel your car-seems the government thinks people aren't smart enough to do it themselves. I ride a motorcycle-every attendant has handed me the nozzle to do it myself).
 
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Reactions: Andy O
I’m inclined to think the Fed is just winging it. Like all the time. Like a monkey throwing darts randomly, only not as accurately.
The Fed evidently agrees with you:

"Nearly all central banks have struggled to forecast inflation over the past year. Pressed over whether central banks now had a better grasp of price-setting dynamics, Mr. Powell responded, ‘We now understand better how little we understand about inflation.[🤷‍♂️]’"

from: Inflation Worries Powell More Than Recession, WSJ, June 30, 2022
 
Tesla's Martin Viecha just tweeted this reminder on how to vote your shares for the 2022 Tesla shareholder votes - in case you haven't yet done it, his how-to reminder. Curious as to why this time would be so different from previous ones.

Is something different? Maybe they’re just reminding folks because, iirc, last time something didn’t get approved that would’ve had there been a higher volume of total votes cast.
 
Jeff Roberts has an interesting comment on his latest video:

"I was able to pickup a Giga Texas made Model Y today on behalf of one of our channel sponsors, and the Tesla employee indicated that we're at 5,000 Model Ys out of Giga Texas as of this time. The one I picked up was number 3,457 so we'll see if Tesla can get all 5,000 delivered by end of day. Q2 will need all the help possible!"

This aligns well with what Rob Maurer was saying on his production video and sheds more light/corrects what Electrek reported the other day. Note Rob has counted 4,500 production out of this 5,000.

 
Slash dot has an article indicating StarLink has received FCC approval for use in motion. No indication of a decision on the 12 GHz band And Dish.


Perhaps there will be a StarLink option on the CT.🙂
 
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BMW has produced the last i3’s: https://www.autoweek.nl/autonieuws/...5bB3P6rGMH3_CueRVP1I0a93pA#Echobox=1656658453

More than 250K i3’s were produced in 9 years. Similar to what Tesla produces in 1 quarter with a factory closed due to covid lockdown.

And I almost bought this car 10 years ago…
Until I call the BMW dealer to get a basic version one and it did not exist. They were only selling the beige version with premium interior for $70k and 120km range with an added 120km with REX for an extra $12k. This car had the highest price per km of range for its battery. I decided to go with Tesla instead.
 
And I almost bought this car 10 years ago…
Until I call the BMW dealer to get a basic version one and it did not exist. They were only selling the beige version with premium interior for $70k and 120km range with an added 120km with REX for an extra $12k. This car had the highest price per km of range for its battery. I decided to go with Tesla instead.
I had a very similar story. When I saw the i3 I was intrigued. Previously I had owned a Z1 in France so low volume weird BMWs were a known quantity for me. The dealer wanted $10,000 over MSRP and low-balled my M3 convertible trade. I had a Model S on order also but did not expect it soon. After going home to debate there was a phone call waiting from Tesla asking if I’d like a P85D demo model right away instead. I took it. RIP BMW. A few days after that I doubled down on TSLA. During Model 3 ‘production hell’ I doubled down again.

That early buying experience convinced me not only about the car but about the business model. Back then I gritted my teeth about finances. Today we have all the pluses nearly none of the fundamentals but with frightening macros.

Now I’m increasing my Tesla long position. The price may well drop further, but the value is increasing. I’m patient. No way at all I’d buy any form of derivative, going long is a gamble only in timing of recovery. more or less quoting Malcolm Forbes, “you only lose if you sell”.
 
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I'm excited for Q2 financials, not because I think they will be good (they will be meh) but because its almost certainly the low point in the stock for the next five or so years. My thinking:
  • This is the last time we will have a quarter that does not have an appreciable contribution from Berlin and Texas. From now on, Tesla is a four factory company, on 3 continents. No matter what impact strikes in the future, the effect will be lower than ever before. Looking back, it was nerve wracking when everything depended on Freemont. Now the company is more resilient than ever.
  • We are now in a position where the 4680 and casting are real things. Not rolled out to ever production line yet, and not perfect 4680 yields yet, but fundamentally the tech is now viable, and the cost savings of both techs are rapidly heading towards the bottom line.
  • Ukraine has basically doubled the pressure for people to be free of fossil fuel dependence. Its been historically a thing to push EVs as a liberal/left/green purchase, but it can now b e seen as a patriotic option too. Even more so in the US with 100% US built teslas.
  • A recession may happen...but frankly all it will do is kill off the western EV startups, as the appetite for money-burning startups collapses. GM and Ford may take a hit, Toyota too, but even if a recession cut Tesla's waiting list in half, right now it just doesn't matter. A recession just means more market share for Tesla.
I think the company is in a super strong position right now, but wall st wont acknowledge that until Q3 earnings. That means a super hard push on FUD in the next few weeks. They will do their best to use Q2 to collapse the SP as much as they can. Its probably the last time it can ever work.
I'm not selling stock until $1,200 (and then only to diversify a bit).