Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Read my post, S/X are exactly at pre-refresh levels after Tesla shut down the overnight shift in 2019.

I’m well aware of what S/X were at pre refresh and the shift change that happened.

Current wait time for a S\X I’d laughably long and more than enough reason to implement the full 3 shifts instead of just running 2 shifts. I have zero clue what a Tesla is waiting on. And like you mentioned in an earlier post, Elon said they would do a 3rd if there was demand for it………it’s insanely obvious the demand is there

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Remember the market always treats Tesla as opposite of expectations.

This is the key to TSLA valuation IMO, and the basis of my theory we're about to splode higher.

Tesla must be treated opposite to reality because of it's massive options market. You can't steamroll sellers of options without 20%+ surprises followed by more in the same direction.

You need to get sold options contracts "in the money", and then keep em there for months so sellers are forced to eat massive losses or lose shares cheap. That's what we saw in Jan/Feb to now. Next should be the opposite.

Does anyone think we're headed to $530(down 22%) and then drop from there as we head toward 3Q earnings? Seems unlikely to me.

Everyone(even here) is feeling negative, even though the underlying fundamentals are phenomenal. Perfect time to let SP rip higher. Big players get to buy shares from CC sellers for $800 while SP rips to $1350.

Then at $1350 in January you're still only at a PE of 90, lower than today.

With this right-down-the-middle result for P&D, it'll be interesting to see if we start to pop before 2Q earnings/guidance. To me, this non-doomsday result means we do.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This OT, brought to you by Starlink.

Surprisingly small, self aligning, easy to set up, and a nice signal in Chandler, Az. Sweet!



North side is our backyard, so it’s protected. Could easily take camping. Delivery truck driver said he delivered 3 today.

 

[wipster]

Fair warning, grumpy post incoming.........and this time it's directed at Tesla.

But before I get a ton of disagrees, read the entire post. My grumpiness isn't directed towards all of Tesla.

Shanghai - Q2's production completely out of their control. Shanghai did best they could
Austin - When ramping a brand new cell/pack, totally understandable that it's going slow. And the Shanghai shutdown stalled them on starting 2170 production equipment to Austin.
Berlin - Tad slow but with as much beau acracy as there is over there, it's impossible to tell how much Tesla is being slowed down by outside forces.


But Fremont.......oh Fremont. What a disappointment you've become.

It's been over a year and a half now since the S/X refresh and they still can't get production up to pre-refresh levels and they're not even close. The other disappointment is that it's clear Tesla wasn't nimble enough to reallocate resources to Fremont in Q2 to increase production closer to the max production capacity that Tesla themselves lists. It wasn't battery supply that limited Fremont. Tesla said on the last earnings call that they had a stockpile of batteries. And Tesla had plenty of time/notice to divert chip supplies to Fremont instead of Shanghai. So that tells me it wasn't even in the timeframe of the next year to increase actual production at Fremont to be closer to the capacity that Tesla lists.

At this point, Tesla should just lower that "max capacity" for Fremont and I have a hard time believing a expansion of Fremont is coming anytime soon, definitely not in the next year.........even though 2-3 quarters ago, Tesla themselves were saying Tesla would be expanding Fremont by 50% in the next year.

Overall this of course has no real impact on Tesla going forward. Fremont wasn't going to be a significant part of them reaching 50% growth next year or the year after. But I'm throwing in the towel when it comes to placing any expectations of Fremont going forward. If they can't get S/X production up to even 20k/quarter right now, I don't think they're ever getting S/X back to pre-refresh levels.

Maybe they've decided to put the expansion in Austin... hate to reference Fred, but interesting:

Tesla files to expand Gigafactory Texas with giant new building

Tesla has filed with the city of Austin to expand Gigafactory Texas with a giant new 500,000-square-foot building at the...

electrek.co

 

[Singuy]

I’m well aware of what S/X were at pre refresh and the shift change that happened.

Current wait time for a S\X I’d laughably long and more than enough reason to implement the full 3 shifts instead of just running 2 shifts. I have zero clue what a Tesla is waiting on. And like you mentioned in an earlier post, Elon said they would do a 3rd if there was demand for it………it’s insanely obvious the demand is there

The demand is strong, but shanghai troubles have made Y demand stronger. I am not sure how they are allocating labor, maybe more to energy this quarter, or more to performance Ys for world wide shipment. But it's clear in the grand scheme of things, Elon doesn't feel S/X is all that important and probably not worth the resources when there's a shortage in line workers.

 

[Tommy O]

The demand is strong, but shanghai troubles have made Y demand stronger. I am not sure how they are allocating labor, maybe more to energy this quarter, or more to performance Ys for world wide shipment. But it's clear in the grand scheme of things, Elon doesn't feel S/X is all that important and probably not worth the resources when there's a shortage in line workers.

Elon has commented that S/X aren’t that important (in the grand scheme), but tesla HAS historically prioritized higher margin sales. And Elon said they screwed up the refresh, particularly with the X.

A simpler explanation for the still slow S/X ramp is component shortages. Though maybe labor is an issue, too.

It will all wash out in the end. Pretty crazy that they’re still not delivering outside of NA.

 

[dhanson865]

A recession will imply a reduction in demand-across the board. Which should hit legacy/ICE harder than Tesla. That cut in demand will cut cash flow and hence spending, especially from legacy companies that are already deeply in debt. The increased interest rate/higher borrowing costs puts similar pressure on legacy. All of which means that Tesla, with a ton of free cash and little debt, is in a position of power. Equipment manufacturers will be willing to make deals to book orders and keep some work in their shops. Same with long-term orders for raw materials, as well as components, meaning Tesla may be able to lock in at lower costs. And with their margins, Tesla has a lot of room to cut prices to spur demand, which I think is inevitable anyway. The real death-knell for legacy would be for Tesla to sell MYLRs at $50k-which I think they might be able to do and still turn a profit. But, Elon doesn't seem that bloodthirsty and wants other companies to survive-building EVs of course.

Both as a consumer and a stockholder I'd rather see him push the Austin 4680 SR AWD price into the low 40s (Say $42,000 + Paint + choice of EAP/FSD).

We know that after chips catch up to demand this year they will be cell limited. I want to see them reduce price on SR AWD Model Y to increase quantities and I think that is a better way to death knell legacy on top of my desire to see full output from Austin/Berlin and my desire to be able to buy a MY cheaper than I can now.

 

[Singuy]

Elon has commented that S/X aren’t that important (in the grand scheme), but tesla HAS historically prioritized higher margin sales. And Elon said they screwed up the refresh, particularly with the X.

A simpler explanation for the still slow S/X ramp is component shortages. Though maybe labor is an issue, too.

It will all wash out in the end. Pretty crazy that they’re still not delivering outside of NA.

I am not convinced that s/x margins are all that high when they are higher complex cars with 1/10th the economy of scale 3/Y enjoys.

 

[H Mak]

Looking for a business to invest in, that in the teeth of severe headwinds, manages to grow sales by 27% and whose share price hasn't moved in 12 months. Any ideas?

 

[Prunesquallor]

This OT, brought to you by Starlink.

Surprisingly small, self aligning, easy to set up, and a nice signal in Chandler, Az. Sweet!

View attachment 824148

North side is our backyard, so it’s protected. Could easily take camping. Delivery truck driver said he delivered 3 today.

View attachment 824138

Currently on a cruise in the eastern Caribbean. The internet is atrocious. This boat needs about 300 Starlink terminals with mobile access.

 

[Ohmster]

I do believe we can confidently rule out low demand as the cause of the low volumes for S&X because the selling prices are $16-25k higher than in Jan ‘21.

Overall I’m agnostic about the question of whether Tesla has botched the refreshed S&X ramp in the last few quarters, because I think we lack sufficient information to determine the answer right now.

Current wait time for a S\X I’d laughably long and more than enough reason to implement the full 3 shifts instead of just running 2 shifts. I have zero clue what a Tesla is waiting on. And like you mentioned in an earlier post, Elon said they would do a 3rd if there was demand for it………it’s insanely obvious the demand is there

Botched would have been a car that nobody wanted. Far from it. People are waiting & paying upwards of $20k more from initial release units.

My ‘22 Plaid despite its delivery day tribulations is the best car I’ve ever owned 3 months into it. Everyone that has seen it, red with Stealth PPF, loves it. Back are the days of lookie loos, waves, thumbs up, nods, and what not. No one can deny it is a beast.

Could they have done a better job of the rollout and phase in of lights and tilt? Damn right. I waited 18 months having ordered the original vaporcar, Plaid+.

But it’s here now. And damn, she is fine.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I am not convinced that s/x margins are all that high when they are higher complex cars with 1/10th the economy of scale 3/Y enjoys.

That goes directly against Tesla and Elons own comments about the refresh S/X. In that they are cheaper to make than the pre refresh models

 

[mongo]

After the European GMS standard blew up the US mobile phone manufacturers way back when, you'd have thought that US-peoples would have learnt to get with the programme from the beginning.

Eventually Tesla will adopt CCS in in USA. That delay will set back adoption of BEVs and renewable energy by a significant amount.

New superchargers will support CCS natively or via on site adapter. No reason to break their own ecosystem by switching NA car charge ports.
Elon Musk Confirms CCS1 Plugs Coming To US Superchargers

As to "in the beginning" that's sort of what Tesla was.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

At the end of the discussion, Model S/X arguments usually get to the real point, which is....."Yeah, but I really want one".

We're mega-disrupred by supply chain issues, best to just build the simpler more important vehicles with what we got.

This is all likely 80% sorted by now anyway. Guidance will be maintained and all will be well.

 

[dm28997]

This caught my eye. Comes with a Tesla MY. Vacation rental that is a smart home with a KOI pond and work stations.
I like the home design. Looks like they are expanding over the US. We might book one.

 

[Gigapress]

That goes directly against Tesla and Elons own comments about the refresh S/X. In that they are cheaper to make than the pre refresh models

And the fact that the cheapest S you can buy is now $105k and they used to make at least 25% margin when the price was more like $80k.

 

[Tommy O]

I am not convinced that s/x margins are all that high when they are higher complex cars with 1/10th the economy of scale 3/Y enjoys.

@Knightshade has the encyclopedic brain to comment on this for sure, but I thought it was confirmed the new S was cheaper to produce than the old? And S/X were historically higher margin.

Depends on what you mean by “all that high,” I guess.

Edit: just saw @StarFoxisDown! message above. Seems someone else remembers the same.

 

[Singuy]

@Knightshade has the encyclopedic brain to comment on this for sure, but I thought it was confirmed the new S was cheaper to produce than the old? And S/X were historically higher margin.

Depends on what you mean by “all that high,” I guess.

Time has changed. When the average Model 3 was 42k because everyone wanted a sr+ and the model 3 line was relatively new, s/x margins were high
Now we are comparing super efficient model Y/3 lines with the average costing 55k+, I argue that sure the new fresh is better than the old but the new 3/Y is better than the old s/x now.

 

[Gigapress]

Both as a consumer and a stockholder I'd rather see him push the Austin 4680 SR AWD price into the low 40s (Say $42,000 + Paint + choice of EAP/FSD).

We know that after chips catch up to demand this year they will be cell limited. I want to see them reduce price on SR AWD Model Y to increase quantities and I think that is a better way to death knell legacy on top of my desire to see full output from Austin/Berlin and my desire to be able to buy a MY cheaper than I can now.

I strongly doubt that used Y SRs will be selling for $42k any time soon, let alone shiny new ones fresh from the factory. Demand is far too strong.

There’s only so many Ys to go around and if people keep bidding the prices up there’s nothing Tesla can do about that. If the cost gets pushed to $42k then the backlog will stretch out years and flippers will buy up all the cars to resell for the actual market-clearing price.

 

[Discoducky]

Dan Ives continues to get it right IMHO

https://twitter.com/x/status/1543348651887558657