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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
The only positive companies/brands are Tesla (+53%), Genesis (+25.9%), McLaren (+23.3%), Polestar (+858.3%), Chrysler (+95.4%), Porsche (+2.8%).
My thoughts :
How in the world did Chrysler do that?
Where's the FUD article about Polestar the Tesla killer?
The Accountant
Active Member
James with $32 non-GAAP EPS for 2023. Oh My!
imo, James Stephenson is one of the best (maybe the best) Tesla forecasters on social media.
He shared his Q2 numbers and in doing so, gave us a peak at his 2023 numbers. You have to add up the 2023 qtrs . . .and when you do, it's $32.
imo, James Stephenson is one of the best (maybe the best) Tesla forecasters on social media.
He shared his Q2 numbers and in doing so, gave us a peak at his 2023 numbers. You have to add up the 2023 qtrs . . .and when you do, it's $32.
You left out Rivian with infinite growth rate (from 0 to 700), and also Lucid (from 0 to 500).
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Gosh, that should be good for Tesla’s stock.
I guess this is a good buying opportunity
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Berlin, which barely started production/ramping already makes more vehicles in a week than Rivian can make in an entire quarter. Wow. Meanwhile my Yahoo news feed is nothing but negative FUD articles about Tesla Q2<Q1, even though it was much higher than Q2 2021 despite Shanghai shut down half the quarter. Hopefully having two days for investors to see through the FUD will help when market opens tomorrow....
And the FUD continues:
Tesla Pauses Plants After Ending Shaky Quarter With a Production Milestone Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Is the information about various factory closures correct? What I've read about Shanghai doesn't correlate with what they report and this is the first I've read about Germany. What say you smarter people than I on this forum?
Tesla Pauses Plants After Ending Shaky Quarter With a Production Milestone Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Is the information about various factory closures correct? What I've read about Shanghai doesn't correlate with what they report and this is the first I've read about Germany. What say you smarter people than I on this forum?
Gary Black estimating a 1.89M unit annualized runrate.
Also Tesla apparently displayed a range extender trailer. This looks like it would be adaptable to the cybertruck.
Tesla shows off cool solar range extender trailer with Starlink dish
Tesla featured a solar-powered range extender trailer as part of its exhibit at the 2022 IdeenExpo in Hanover, Germany.
www.teslarati.com
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
The Shanghai shutdown is 2 weeks, but there's conflicting reports about the details, everything from 2 weeks full shutdown to only 3-4 days complete shutdown and then another ~10 of parts here and there on cycling shutdowns.
Berlin is fairly new info- and Q is already all over it with stuff like "How incompetent is Tesla at building factories when only a few months after opening one they have to close it for 'upgrades'"
Not sure how Gary is getting that number. Especially listing an exact number like that.
Gary Black estimating a 1.89M unit annualized runrate.
Also Tesla apparently displayed a range extander trailer. This looks like it would be adaptable to the cybertruck.
Tesla shows off cool solar range extender trailer with Starlink dish
Tesla featured a solar-powered range extender trailer as part of its exhibit at the 2022 IdeenExpo in Hanover, Germany.
Would love for it to be true, but if it was, I have no clue as to why Tesla wouldn't have included something like "June's deliveries topped 157,000 for June, at a annual run rate of 1.89 million vehicles now" in the June P/D report besides just saying "June was highest production month for Tesla ever"
As for tomorrow, I'm seeing an extreme amount of FUD and wouldn't be surprised if there's a major bear raid. In fact there's a nasty FUD filled article on the Berlin 2 week shutdown "
Musk forced to halt Tesla assembly line in struggling Berlin plant for 2 weeks over production problems"
Including this "German tabloid Bild reported on Monday the factory has been struggling with a trio of persistent problems: longer-than-anticipated manufacturing time, a lack of skilled workers and quality assurance issues that require expensive reworking carried out on vehicles that had already rolled off the assembly line."Oh well. See everyone in the 500's.
Captkerosene
Member
These margins will not last. The Chinese are coming, from the Electric Viking:
Will China be prevented from competing in some of our markets? If so, then maybe our margins will survive somewhat longer?
Over the long run, autos will act like commodities. Whoever has the lowest cost of production will win. That's why Elon says the car business is not where Tesla's value lies.
We need to win real-world AI.
I suggest you include a quote from that article about "various factory closures", so we don't have to click the link, if you think it's FUD.
"Cybertruck with whompy wheels"?
Captkerosene
Member
He got this from this source :
With Q1 at 310 048 deliveries and Q2 at 254 695. If we substract to Q1 + Q2 deliveries the sales from this source of Janv - May, we get june deliveries of 157 874.
But it doesn't mean that was the production rate of june, cars may have been produced earlier in the quarter.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
And just like that....the Pope getting hit with FUD. Welcome to the TSLA familia!
Maybe not in what they reported but definitely in the way it was reported. Most non-Teslarites don't read past the headline and maybe the first paragraph.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
James Stephenson always aims to be conservative with his published numbers, too, so this should be viewed as a fairly pessimistic estimate.
Looking at his whole Twitter thread, he's projecting for 2023:
- $36 billion of GAAP net income
- This would be an all-time world record for highest car company profits by a large margin
- The best 12-month period Toyota (including Lexus and rest of company) has ever had was $29B earnings (source), and that was an anomalous rebound in 2021 from bad results in 2020. Normally Toyota was making about $20B per year pre-COVID.
- 2.2 million vehicles sold
- 31-32% gross margin excluding FSD, leasing, etc.
- Up only slightly from 30.6% actual in Q1 '22
- Average cost per car (excl. leasing) of $43k by Q4 '23
- Up 13% from $38k actual in Q1 '22
- $20k average gross profit per vehicle by Q4 '23
- Up $3.7k from $16.3k actual in Q1 '22
Mr. Stephenson forecasts Shanghai production of just 982k cars in 2023. As of now, Shanghai is at 864k annualized production rate based on 72k produced in June. Thus, James is projecting merely 14% growth for Shanghai between now and then, which is ludicrously low considering that they're making major upgrades soon and they have a whole Phase Three area coming online later this year that should increase production capacity around 50% once ramped up. Before the government lockdowns, Giga Shanghai historically was growing output much faster than what James is predicting, as shown below. James is predicting average monthly output in 2023 of 81k, whereas linear extrapolation of the trend resuming now after a first-half of 2022 disruption would lead to a 2023 estimate more like 120k per month or over 1.4M for the year, a 67% growth in one year. That's more like Tesla's actual ramp speed, and probably still on the low side by a bit.
If Shanghai were to sell half a million cars more than James' model shows, using his estimate of $20k profit per car means adding an extra $10B to income, for a new GAAP total of $46B.
The Berlin and Austin projections are 340k cars and 395k respectively. That's less conservative than the Shanghai number, but still very cautious. At the Giga Berlin Grunheide County Fair event in October 2021, Elon stated at 21:25 in the video:
So basically at the time, Elon said that Giga Berlin is targeting a 250k to 500k annualized production rate by the end of 2022. I don't recall guidance having been changed since then. If this is so, then they will produce far more than 340k in 2023, and likewise Austin would probably beat James' published estimates. If they produce 1 million combined, this adds 265k cars to the total. If we again assume $20k per car, this adds another $5.3B to net income. However, these factories should have the highest margins due to using 4680s and front castings, only making Model Y, etc, so really $23k is more reasonable if we still are sticking with James' overall gross margin estimates. So then it's an incremental $6B in earnings. Add that to the Shanghai adjustment from before and now we're at $52B total.
We need to account for tax on the incremental earnings added in this analysis, which would pull approximately $2B off the total. $50B total net income.
Higher margins would multiply this result even higher. James' model is estimating just $3.7k increase in profit per car even with all the price hikes; more Model Y, S & X in the mix; front casting; less shipping and tariff expenses; newer, more efficient factory designs; structural pack and 4680s; dilution of Fremont contributions vs Shanghai/Berlin/Austin; and less struggling with chip problems. If we model with the new total delivery estimate just shy of 3M cars and add an extra $3k to gross profit per car, that's another $9B for profit, or maybe $8B after tax. Now the adjusted GAAP income estimate is $58 billion, which would be $49 GAAP earnings per share fully diluted 1.18 billion outstanding shares projected by the end of 2023.
$49 GAAP EPS. Roughly $70 annualized for Q4 '23. All of this excluding FSD, leasing, etc. Still with upside on deliveries and margins if the ramps go well.
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Xepa777
Banned
Whenever I see this guy on a YouTube video or a tweet of his shared, whether it’s P&D or quarterly earnings, it’s always overly optimistic.
Does anyone have a track record of this guys accuracy?
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