Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Since no one said it yet:

 

[Gigapress]

Well they are transitioning to LFP and that's a huge win. Tesla is losing marketshare in solar slowly but surely. I hope this does not become the case with the other energy solutions (powerwalls, megapacks,etc) and to keep that from being the case they need to move faster I think. Why isn't the powerwall an LFP solution by now?

Powerwall is meant to fit in a small sleek box. LFP cells are bulkier.

More importantly: Chips, chips, chips. There aren’t enough chips. Moving faster on Powerwall means moving slower on vehicles. Tesla has explicitly stated that this is the trade-off and that they decided heavily in favor of vehicles.

For solar we know the problems.

1) During Model 3 Production Hell, Tesla put everybody on solving that so they wouldn’t go bankrupt, while switching Solar to only cash and loan sales in order to salvage as much free cash flow as possible to remain solvent.

2) As Drew Baglino explained in the recent Stanford interview, for Solar Roof (which is the real long-term target) they underestimated the difficulty of dealing with all the edges and flashings and other irregularities in roofs and need more work on that part of the design.

3) Solar is also affected by the semiconductor shortage and logistics logjams

In any case, Tesla Solar is once again exponentially scaling fast and they have a long order backlog. Market share is irrelevant.

If the cfo, coo, ceo are not all in on batteries- the actual constraint to the mission than it will lag. Does EM even tweet about energy ? i wouldn't know I don't do social media other than two forums. I certainly don't hear much about it and solar market share is slipping.

Where is the evidence of them neglecting battery supply? Do you have any at all except for absence of tweets?

Here is some strong evidence that they’re looking about battery supply very closely:

• They are capable of doing basic arithmetic to estimate future battery supply needs
• Investment in Giga Nevada in 2015 back when the common opinion was that it was crazy
• Battery Day 2020 and all the research and development leading up to it
• Elon repeatedly pleading mining companies for increased lithium and nickel supply with promises of long-term contracts for everything they can sell
• Tesla directly negotiating with most mining companies years ago for long term supply deals
• Huge partnership with Indonesia in the works including multiple private meetings between Elon and their President and heavy hinting at an Indonesian battery factory
• Developing a proprietary lithium clay mining process and buying massive plot of land in Nevada to mine
• Acquiring Maxwell, Hibar, SilLion, and German ATW Automation
• Stating on every recent quarterly conference call that by early 2023, the constraint on volume growth will be cell supply and the 4680 ramp will be critical at that time
• Building a factory for Megapacks with staggering 40 GWh nominal annual production capacity, about 11x their current production rate with ambitions of roughly 2-4x growth in 2022 as it ramps
• Drew Baglino spending most of his Stanford interview talking about battery supply, raw materials for batteries, and how the heck they can help the industry make 300 TWh to transition to sustainable energy

 

[Beltsbear]

Powerwall is meant to fit in a small sleek box. LFP cells are bulkier.

Power wall with LFP batteries could look identical but just 15% taller with the same capacity. It would still look sleek.

 

[MC3OZ]

Power wall with LFP batteries could look identical but just 15% taller with the same capacity. It would still look sleek.

One issue is the weight of the Powerwall but they could split it into 2 halves for easier installation.

LMNO could give a similar cost and cycle life to LFP but at a higher energy density.

The energy density of LFP is also being improved.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I’ve read that powerwall in the home versus gigapak in the region makes sense because it saves suffering power outage. Perhaps this is a US centric view - the climate demands always on power and outages are common?
Not bragging, maybe just lucky, but this boomer has not once in 59 years lost power for more than a few hours, never lost a single sausage from the freezer. Grids can be reliable if response teams hit the ground running.
For my money I‘d prefer regional megapacks. Far fewer wires to connect. Fred can feed it while Charlie can charge his car. Might even foster a bit of community spirit.
Weekend over. Returning to my hole in the ground. Over and out.

 

[MC3OZ]

My understanding (per Sawyer) is that the expansion is across the access road and not contiguous (at least at ground level). So #1 isn't an issue
#2 is just ripping out concrete, we've seen Tesla do this before.
#3 the main building is over storm water handing too, not a big issue.
#4 Non issue like #1
Also, this has been on site plan for a year (per Joe T)

View attachment 824812

View attachment 824810

https://twitter.com/x/status/1542574221997506563

I still think the GA extensions might be internal space.

I agree if a building is constructed in this space, it will be this shape, But for a GA extension it doesn't make much sense, no room for loading docks and car bodies will need to be transported from the main factory.

What makes sense to me in this area is, a multi-story car park with car transports loading on the ground floor, cars being parked / charged on higher levels and offices on top.

What they would gain is keeping the loading of cars for transport close to the factory, perhaps dual level loading or charging, perhaps also some facilities for testing and rework.

 

[Ogre]

I’ve read that powerwall in the home versus gigapak in the region makes sense because it saves suffering power outage. Perhaps this is a US centric view - the climate demands always on power and outages are common?
Not bragging, maybe just lucky, but this boomer has not once in 59 years lost power for more than a few hours, never lost a single sausage from the freezer. Grids can be reliable if response teams hit the ground running.
For my money I‘d prefer regional megapacks. Far fewer wires to connect. Fred can feed it while Charlie can charge his car. Might even foster a bit of community spirit.
Weekend over. Returning to my hole in the ground. Over and out.

I think Powerwalls make most sense when combines with home solar. Essentially eliminates power line loss, also minimizes interaction with utilities which in some locations don‘t fully reimburse for power you push to the grid.

For many, battery backup is tertiary, but I have a friend in NorCal where PG&E shuts down entire cities for hours or days to minimize fire risks. They bought Tesla solar just to eliminate that problem.

 

[ZeApelido]

I’ve read that powerwall in the home versus gigapak in the region makes sense because it saves suffering power outage. Perhaps this is a US centric view - the climate demands always on power and outages are common?
Not bragging, maybe just lucky, but this boomer has not once in 59 years lost power for more than a few hours, never lost a single sausage from the freezer. Grids can be reliable if response teams hit the ground running.
For my money I‘d prefer regional megapacks. Far fewer wires to connect. Fred can feed it while Charlie can charge his car. Might even foster a bit of community spirit.
Weekend over. Returning to my hole in the ground. Over and out.

Typical daily Australian Diet:

1) Australian “sausages” that kept giving me hives.

2) Vegemite.

3) Fosters beer

There is no evidence Australian “food” needs refrigeration. Regional MegaPacks would work fine there.

Yes I know Aussies don’t drink Fosters but it will trigger them!

 

[MC3OZ]

3) XXXX beer

That is a rookie mistake, never trust people who can't spell Beer to make Beer, (and stop updating your post to hide the evidence.)

Vegemite addiction needs to start under the age of 5, before tastebuds are developed.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Typical daily Australian Diet:

1) Australian “sausages” that kept giving me hives.

2) Vegemite.

3) Fosters beer

There is no evidence Australian “food” needs refrigeration. Regional MegaPacks would work fine there.

Yes I know Aussies don’t drink Fosters but it will trigger them!

No meat pie, no lamingtons, no fairy bread.

4/7 on your Australian research assignment. Could try harder.

 

[insaneoctane]

Last buy order set at 600
If it does hit I am happy if it doesn’t it means we are not going to go in the 500s and I am also happy.

I just don’t understand how the market can go more down when I see stocks like Voyager digital -98%, Rivian -90%, Bitcoin -70%, Quantum scape -88%. If they dropped like rocks while SPY went -20%, they would go to 0 if the SPY goes -50%?

TSLA is clearly a winner with a -50%

AAPL -24%...

 

[JusRelax]

Looks like '2 weeks' is only a week late this time

https://twitter.com/x/status/1544244452298002432

 

[Xepa777]

That is... a relatively recent change.... from James His June 2020 #s for example (so this was not pre-covid) were let us just say overly optimistic on production ramps... He had 2021 deliveries projected at ~1.1 million for example...including almost 50,000 Semis he expected to start shipping Q1 2021... and Cybertruck shipping Q3 2021. He had Austin and Berlin both shipping cars Q1 2021 with Berlin shipping almost 100k vehicles in 2021 and Austin doing 145k in 2021.

He even had the new compact model that still doesn't exist shipping by Q4 2021 out of Shanghai.


I appreciate he's dialed things back a bit since then, and I do find his stuff very interesting and useful to read these days.




EDIT-
Ah, found a note I'd written when his 2021 forecast came out... he definitely got more conservative compared to 2020... his June 2021 slides knocked deliveries back almost 200k (meaning he adjusted, halfway through the year, to land on nearly the right number versus the way high one he'd predicted 12 months earlier).... he STILL had both CT and Semi delivering in 2021 though (albeit not till Q4)...he dropped the "imaginary compact" model entirely.... but he was still way optimistic on Berlin (Q3 2021 deliveries with almost 15k in Q4 2021)...and Austin producing in Q4 2021 though "only" 2k.

He also had very optimistic #s for Model X, 6 months after it was clear there were refresh issues.

His June 2021 numbers DID have projections for 22 and 23 though-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1404124757688193028

Q1 2022 he got pretty solidly, Q2 obviously less so He has Q4 this near 500k which I think is still a bit optimistic.



EDIT2-


Oh, and checking his just-posted June 2022 predictions, he dialed back again from his '21 ones.

Instead of 500k Q4 he's nearer 400k, with Q3 around 375ish. He's got 500k showing Q1 23 now.


So yeah looks like he's generally overly optimistic about future next-year stuff (though not quite as badly as he used to be) and then dials it back halfway through that year when he realizes they're not gonna remotely hit his original estimates.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1543650561114923012

Thanks for the research @Knightshade ! Great stuff I had a hunch based off previous stuff I've read from him always anecdotally coming across as Kool-aid drinking.

Significantly more useful than @JustMe who just writes snarky, no-value comments.

 

[elasalle]

So far pre market reaction to Q2 numbers seems neutral
.. and just moving with macro

 

[jerry33]

I’ve read that powerwall in the home versus gigapak in the region makes sense because it saves suffering power outage. Perhaps this is a US centric view - the climate demands always on power and outages are common?
Not bragging, maybe just lucky, but this boomer has not once in 59 years lost power for more than a few hours, never lost a single sausage from the freezer. Grids can be reliable if response teams hit the ground running.
For my money I‘d prefer regional megapacks. Far fewer wires to connect. Fred can feed it while Charlie can charge his car. Might even foster a bit of community spirit.
Weekend over. Returning to my hole in the ground. Over and out.

I haven't lost power for more than a few hours either, but lately in the 35-40+ afternoons, the charge port turns red due to low voltage from the electric utility. I also have the software bug where it displays the "unable to charge" message even though it charges just fine (It's been doing this for a couple of years on and off depending upon the firmware version).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So far pre market reaction to Q2 numbers seems neutral
.. and just moving with macro

CNBC trying it's best to say otherwise, so there are definitely hedgies spending money to spin this as a negative.

To me, -1% TSLA with QQQ down .85% is quite strong and smells like we end the day green. We shall see!

 

[ZachF]

Euro has fallen to $1.02, lowest level in 20 years.

Those of you complaining about the fed are going to be happy they acted quickly, and before you know it we will be on to the next cycle.

Europe and Japan are going to be forced into increasingly bad decisions long after we’ve turned the corner thanks to their denial/slowness to act.

 

[traxila]

Euro has fallen to $1.02, lowest level in 20 years.

Those of you complaining about the fed are going to be happy they acted quickly, and before you know it we will be on to the next cycle.

Europe and Japan are going to be forced into increasingly bad decisions long after we’ve turned the corner thanks to their denial/slowness to act.

Don’t think complaining about the Fed has to do with them raising rates. Most people are pissed they waited so long and now have to overreact. Pretty obvious US economy looking shaky, indicators falling across the board, and yet Fed has a 75 basis point rate hike teed up for next meeting regardless of data until then. But they talk about a soft landing.

Soft landings are created by gradual raises. As in stopping QE and giving us a quarter point last September. At least then we could have faith they have a clue and are the parents in the house instead of the seniors who are prodded into a breath holding contest in a tub full of beer and then realize they have to get out of Dodge.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Euro has fallen to $1.02, lowest level in 20 years.

Those of you complaining about the fed are going to be happy they acted quickly, and before you know it we will be on to the next cycle.

Europe and Japan are going to be forced into increasingly bad decisions long after we’ve turned the corner thanks to their denial/slowness to act.

Who said the Fed acted quickly? Our relative strength is far more about oil & gas than any central bank actions.

It is gonna be a sweet few years tho. Global oil prices should crumble real fast and we'll likely pop right out of this recession with a great job market and a renewables push.

Good times ahead. Is it in 6 months or next week tho?

 

[ZachF]

Don’t think complaining about the Fed has to do with them raising rates. Most people are pissed they waited so long and now have to overreact. Pretty obvious US economy looking shaky, indicators falling across the board, and yet Fed has a 75 basis point rate hike teed up for next meeting regardless of data until then. But they talk about a soft landing.

Soft landings are created by gradual raises. As in stopping QE and giving us a quarter point last September. At least then we could have faith they have a clue and are the parents in the house instead of the seniors who are prodded into a breath holding contest in a tub full of beer and then realize they have to get out of Dodge.

The fed took to long to act, but is still also acting quicker than everyone else. Japan is sleepwalking into a currency crisis and the ECB might be the dumbest central bank in the world.