Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Elon DID waive due diligence.

Elon Musk Exhibit 99.P - pg.5 (dated 08 July 2022)

Despite public speculation on this point, Mr. Musk did not waive his right to review Twitter’s data and information simply because he chose not to seek this data and information before entering into the Merger Agreement. In fact, he negotiated access and information rights within the Merger Agreement precisely so that he could review data and information that is important to Twitter’s business before financing and completing the transaction.

Elon DID NOT wave his rights of due diligence; it was work-in-progress, and Twitter agree to that process, and the consummation of the deal was dependent upon the outcome of that work:

While Section 6.4 of the Merger Agreement requires Twitter to provide Mr. Musk and his advisors all data and information that Mr. Musk requests “for any reasonable business purpose related to the consummation of the transaction,” Twitter has not complied with its contractual obligations.

 

[InTheShadows]

Redo electric panels? I have installed north of 60 solar systems and have never redone a power panel.

I install Powerwalls and every home that gets full house backup needs the panel redone to separate the neutrals and grounds.

 

[Baumisch]

They are switching.

Often to Huawei.

Same here in Germany - Powerwall was not competitive.
Huawei 10kwh is below 6k€ if ordered before the war, above 6k now . I ordered before the war started.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Press trying to suggest Apple might buy Rivian, just because Tim Cook arrived at the Sun Valley conference in a Rivian.

(I mean it’s possible, but that is pretty flimsy evidence)

I'm not sure if it would be possible with Amazon being a major shareholder, however I think it would be a good deal for Apple to purchase Rivian at the current market cap.

• Apple clearly sucks at making their own vehicle, so buying one with product market fit, even if expensive, would likely be a cheap way of getting into the market. Rivian could probably sell 100k trucks a year if they could make them, especially if they scale and bring the price down
• Apple could easily fund the Rivian's growth, and it's looking quite iffy if Rivian has the cash to get to break even
• The Apple software and hardware teams would likely provide enormous benefit to Rivian's FSD and infotainment goals (low power chips, Apple maps doesn't suck anymore, Apple is pretty good at AR, Apple carplay could take over Rivian's bespoke vehicle OS, Apple has the resources to go all the way down to rewriting firmware to try and make their vehicle OS closer with Tesla, Apple can clearly do OTA updates)
• Apple has supply chain clout to assist with negotiations on parts/raw material supply
• Integration with the Apple ecosystem would likely induce further demand for Rivian vehicles
• The EV market is still in the early innings so there is time for Rivian to grow, Apple will probably miss the window if they keep doing what they are doing now
• Apple would get access to RJ, who appears to be solid on the product design front, even if he hasn't made the company profitable yet. Tim Cook seems excellent at getting costs under control
• Apple could open doors in China if they wanted to build their version of GigaShanghai
• Apple has the backend capacity to handle all the data needed for FSD

I'm not saying they would be taking over Tesla, but it would definitely be a shot in the arm for Apple's vehicle ambitions if they picked up Rivian at this price while also improving the product and derisking growth.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The guy who started tesla who got the s*** beat out of him in apartheid SA for standing up to racist bullies (NYT just this year reported on it with a NEW investigative article).

The guy whose company for the 7th year in a row got a perfect score on the hrc LGBT metrics.

The guy who hired a gender-queer (sorry if I’m not using the correct terms) engineer to design the neuralink electronics and then highlighted that person in publicly published videos??

The guy who, in an email reply, excoriated the dailybeast for outing his trans daughter???

Recalibrate yourself.

Yeah, it's wild. Elon is clearly socially liberal in nearly every metric yet there is a vocal minority on the left that treats him like he's some fascist dystopian monster. It's difficult to even see some level of reasonableness in their position.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Technical analysis is reassuring by trying to explain unexpected human emotional behaviour in complex charts, candle sticks and moving averages.

It is interesting for traders glued to their screen constantly 3-4 hours to find momentum in the buying of a stock for someone who want to get in and out of a stock and have a 70% probability of making small amount of money with 5-6 indicators. However it requires patience, diligence and a lot of time. A lot of qualities I lack.

90% of traders lose money. I think 90% are better with buy n hold.

I had a free elective at uni and used it to study technical analysis - I don't buy into any of the actual metrics but I did get a piece of advice from my professor (who was an ex trader) and that was that technical analysis gives traders some rules to go by that short circuit their emotional attachment to a trade - e.g. rules that force them to sell rather than hold on to a losing position in the hopes that it goes back up, or taking profits once momentum changes, etc.

So it's not helpful in being particularly predictive, its most appealing aspect is to stop humans being as stupid as we normally are.

Those rules are really only helpful if you don't understand the company in detail and aren't in it for the long term. Most on this board with a deep understanding of Tesla would get more value in doing the opposite of what technical analysis says because they have a high conviction the value will increase dramatically over the long term.

 

[Favguy]

Yeah, it's wild. Elon is clearly socially liberal in nearly every metric yet there is a vocal minority on the left that treats him like he's some fascist dystopian monster. It's difficult to even see some level of reasonableness in their position.

I agree, but then it would probably help if he didn't publicly announce his intention to vote for actual fascist dystopians, who are the very opposite of socially liberal! I understand the idiot few on the left riled him into it, but this just serves to prove their point (in their eyes)

 

[hobbes]

Giga Shanghai starting up again:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1545567715787608064

(Funny WuWa now using the same music as Tobi Lindh )

https://twitter.com/x/status/1545683518642012160

 

[nativewolf]

Yeah, it's wild. Elon is clearly socially liberal in nearly every metric yet there is a vocal minority on the left that treats him like he's some fascist dystopian monster. It's difficult to even see some level of reasonableness in their position.

Some ill will might be legit if it is for things like moving the HQ from CA (that literally birthed Tesla) to TX (a state that is very unfriendly to the left and prohibits direct EV sales) because of taxes? Or because of covid policies? Either way not a lot of loyalty to a state whose high tax rates and spending and government controls (air pollution restrictions) were literally the basis for the creation of Tesla. Without CA and its very active govt there would be no Tesla. Period no if ands or buts. So yeah...there is some legit beef but it is not what seems to drive the really lib people crazy so go figure. He doesn't speak out against any of the TX politicians but slams the dems in CA. They are conducting a genocide in China but he does nothing but praise China. Yeah...there are some legit things to complain about.

 

[nativewolf]

You would still be overpaying. That company has never consistently made a profit in a decade of being publicly traded.

Yes but why then did he try to buy it for $44 billion to start with? And why try to compete with Uber that is a money losing/capital destroying animal.

 

[nativewolf]

As someone who paid the solar roof deposit 6 months ago but then cancelled, it doesn't make economic sense to change roofs from reg to solar any more than it would be to convert my old '63 Buick to become an BEV. (Unless we hit 1,200 again soon).

NEW buildings were always Tesla's priority for reasons given at initial home design stage - so that it just goes together well. These efforts aligned with the laws that went into place requiring solar on new California homes (California Solar Mandates).

Panels OTOH are 1/3 product cost, 2/3 sales and labor (per a lender in solar), and yet it was STILL worth it for us. But to justify a complete roof change, good luck there. They're padding every quote I think, including all new plywood... "in case." At that point, might as well change some rafters, redo the attic, and add insulation while the store is open.

As for us we have to get a new roof, shingles are shot. It just was a crazy difference.

 

[nativewolf]

Then open Tesla Solar in Germany. Or Italy. Or Greece. Or China. Or wherever. Either Tesla is a rationally-managed global company with a revolutionary mission, or its just a way of Elon passing time in between breeding wildly.

Did you see the info from Germany I posted on the news thread today ? That is going to be the mother of all solar bonanzas at these FIT rates.

Germany raises feed-in tariffs for solar up to 750 kW

The new provisions are part of the new version of the country's renewable energy law, which was approved today by the German parliament.

www.pv-magazine.com

Exactly. Tesla energy is just an afterthought apparently. There was never a serious attempt to grow this in Europe or Japan or Korea. If you go around Australia or NZ good luck seeing a Tesla panel install or powerwall, might exist but such low marketshare.

 

[nativewolf]

Tesla has all their growth eggs in the 4680 basket. They will ramp like crazy once the unit yield improves. Until then, a jaundiced eye can misconstrue efforts.

I very much hope you are correct. In the prior posts I linked to Drew saying (in nov 2021) that Austin would be at 100GWh run rate by the end of this year. Between that interview and March Tesla ordered equipment to utilize 2170 cells in Austin. To hearing him blather in Stanford presentation. Then again nobody asked him the hard questions so he can wax on.

 

[2daMoon]

Yes but why then did he try to buy it for $44 billion to start with? And why try to compete with Uber that is a money losing/capital destroying animal.

Accept how the reason may be beyond your comprehension.

It has been explained, both by Elon and by others in response to your queries and yet you continue to ask the same questions repeatedly, seemingly expecting different answers.

There is a definition for that particular behavior.

Edit: SMR explains it HERE as philanthropy on Elon's part. Is that too difficult to grasp?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yes but why then did he try to buy it for $44 billion to start with? And why try to compete with Uber that is a money losing/capital destroying animal.

Elon stated his Twitter reasoning quite clearly. He was contemplating replacing the (failed) advertising-financed approach with a subscription-based approach. This is the strategy all major software providers are chasing. He also stated he felt the censorship algorithms were opaque and wanted to fix this, as he has stated many times he feels free speech is of paramount importance. All these probably contributed to his personal valuation of the platform.

I have no idea whether he would have been successful with Twitter 2.0 or not, but I think that was his reasoning.

You seem to have difficulty remembering Tesla's mission statement. Elon could not care less about competing with Uber. He wants to make personal transportation sustainable. Robotaxi would do this by 1) reducing the need for personally owned transportation by replacing it with high-utilization zero-emission ride-sharing and 2) making this financially viable via FSD and reduced fuel costs, essentially fixing the aspects that makes Uber unsustainable financially.

I have no idea whether he will be successful with robotaxi or not, but I think that is his reasoning.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla Stock Stands to Gain if Musk Succeeds in Ending Twitter Deal

Elon Musk's potential purchase of Twitter has been an overhang for Tesla investors for weeks. Tesla stock could benefit if the deal is terminated.

www.barrons.com

 

[mongo]

I very much hope you are correct. In the prior posts I linked to Drew saying (in nov 2021) that Austin would be at 100GWh run rate by the end of this year. Between that interview and March Tesla ordered equipment to utilize 2170 cells in Austin. To hearing him blather in Stanford presentation. Then again nobody asked him the hard questions so he can wax on.

Nope.
Q1 earnings report from January:
" Later this year, we expect Gigafactory Texas will be able to produce Model Ys using both structural packs with 4680 cells as well as non-structural packs with 2170 cells."
Ability for Texas to use 2170 non-structural packs (and by extension LFP non-structural) has been on their road map for a long time, even if Drew didn't call it out two months prior.
Texas was building 2170 cars in June, after finally getting the Covid delayed equipment from China. This was not a recent decision.

 

[nativewolf]

Yes, the inflexibility is a problem. My assumption is that because service is always handled by sales teams in the US solar market, Elon has stonewalled any effort to augment the service end of things. He does NOT want to risk giving salespeople a foothold in his organization. And correctly so.

Hence no communication, hence the bad reputation is allowed to circulate unopposed. It's a subtle people problem that Elon's probably not the best suited to solve.

Even so, I think standing pat is still the right move through this summer. There's no better angle at the moment, other than dumping massive amount of money into building a centralized service center that's deeply embedded in the process of each and every install hub. Very unlikely to happen.

Hey, they offer a very inexpensive option for people who just want a standard install. I plan to talk to some friends and neighbors about it this summer/fall and see if I can drum up some sales.

Good on you sir! Since Tesla has figured out how to do something as innovative as the octovalve and refined a sales and service model for autos that scales from China to Australia to Canada to UK I would have hoped they could figure out energy. It has not scaled here in the USA and basically does not exist in other countries. There has been no effort or attention to disrupting and improving the market in the same way that Tesla has disrupted and improved the Auto side of things. I looked at Tesla solar panels out of curiosity and your strong recommendations. $37k for our house here in VA, 11.5 for the powerwall. Since we only use $200 a month of electricity I can't see how this pays back. I haven't asked for any solar panel quotes so I don't know if that's fair or not but there is no way that make sense in terms of payback.

 

[marvinat0rz]

Quite worried at the possibilities of how the Twitter pullout may play itself out in the Delaware courts. Ideal case, there's a negotiated breakup fee in the billion-dollar range and everyone just pretends the whole thing was a bad dream. That would be about as good as we can expect; the Twitter purchase was always a silly and unnecessary distraction for Musk, and on the surface I'm glad to see him change his mind on it.

What I'm worried about is that Twitter is able to force the sale to complete, and that Musk's financiers are at the same time somehow able to pull out of the deal, leaving him on the hook for a loss in the 15 billion dollar range due to the markets tanking right after the deal went through. That would be very bad for his ownership stakes in Tesla and SpaceX. Don't know enough of the judicial details to know if this is a likely scenario though.

Twitter's board has a huge incentive to force the sale, although it's not in Twitter's long-term interest to have an owner that doesn't want to own it. Twitter's shareholders do have such an interest though, since they stand to instantly gain ~30% of today's Twitter stock price.

The 1 billion dollar breakup fee is for external circumstances, it's not a "walk away if you change your mind" fee. Twitter seems to have a decent case here, and it will definitely play out in court.

 

[nativewolf]

Nope.
Q1 earnings report from January:
" Later this year, we expect Gigafactory Texas will be able to produce Model Ys using both structural packs with 4680 cells as well as non-structural packs with 2170 cells."
Ability for Texas to use 2170 non-structural packs (and by extension LFP non-structural) has been on their road map for a long time, even if Drew didn't call it out two months prior.
Texas was building 2170 cars in June, after finally getting the Covid delayed equipment from China. This was not a recent decision.

Ahh well that's interesting...so in Nov they were planning on an 8GWh run rate but were planning on using 2170s? I don't see it but that's interesting and thanks for that tidbit.