The image I posted was copied by a twitter account from a bloomberg terminal as of yesterday. So the data is all based on whatever estimate data bloomberg compiles.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Some more price to sales valuation data:
After learning Q1 production numbers Tesla traded at a price to sales ratio high of 19.15. Thanks to a multitude of factors we then saw a price to sales ratio low of 10.3 between April 2022 and June 2022.
After learning Q2 production numbers Tesla moved from a P/S ratio low of 10.3 to a low of 10.6.
At Friday's closing price of $720 we are at a current P/S ratio of 11.2.
Of note, after news broke last week that the twitter deal was off we saw Tesla hit $778 after hours. The corresponding P/S ratio was 12.1
A bullish valuation move halfway back up to highs seen just one quarter ago to a P/S ratio of 14.7 would result in share price near $944 based on Q2 production.
Venturing out to Q3 and Q4 production estimates using the same P/S ratio of 14.7 gets you to:
After learning Q1 production numbers Tesla traded at a price to sales ratio high of 19.15. Thanks to a multitude of factors we then saw a price to sales ratio low of 10.3 between April 2022 and June 2022.
After learning Q2 production numbers Tesla moved from a P/S ratio low of 10.3 to a low of 10.6.
At Friday's closing price of $720 we are at a current P/S ratio of 11.2.
Of note, after news broke last week that the twitter deal was off we saw Tesla hit $778 after hours. The corresponding P/S ratio was 12.1
A bullish valuation move halfway back up to highs seen just one quarter ago to a P/S ratio of 14.7 would result in share price near $944 based on Q2 production.
Venturing out to Q3 and Q4 production estimates using the same P/S ratio of 14.7 gets you to:
| Q3 | Q4 |
| 375 | 488 |
| $ 1,061 | $ 1,217 |
If the front looks like the tongue hanging out, what the h*ll is hanging out at the back then?
10 hours 700 miles road trip yesterday
Stopped at 3 superchargers for less than 1 hour
They added one new location this year and we charged at 250kw average there from 10% to 90% in less than 15 mins. We did not even have time to eat.
Last year this SC was not open and we had to charge for 4 hours before reaching the next supercharging location.
When comparing the charging options offered to other EVs Tesla is so far superior, people have to try it to understand. A colleague of mine just took delivery of his Volvo XC40 EV last week because his wife preferred the more classic premium interior with buttons than the center Tesla touchscreen. They might regret it next year because they are planning the same trip. Having to buy $650 Chademo adapter to charge at 50kw instead. Other companies are having increasingly high number of sales because customers have not tried the different fast charging options but once you tried superchargers everything else is just inferior.
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Cory Steuben from Munro Live is interviewed. I thought the most interesting bit was where he talked about the GigaPress. For all its advantages, he explains that it is worthless if you can't get the throughput high enough. He says an auto plant typically puts out a car every 45 seconds.
This sounded low to me, but I assume he was taking multiple production lines into account?
So if the GigaPress can't keep up with the production rate then you might as well not use it. In this case, you need it to output a casting every 45 seconds or buy more GigaPresses.
Does anyone here know the rate for Tesla's GigaPress? Does Tesla use one GigaPress per production line?
This sounded low to me, but I assume he was taking multiple production lines into account?
So if the GigaPress can't keep up with the production rate then you might as well not use it. In this case, you need it to output a casting every 45 seconds or buy more GigaPresses.
Does anyone here know the rate for Tesla's GigaPress? Does Tesla use one GigaPress per production line?
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I think there are two presses in Freemont for the Model 3/Y lines, and as many as four in Texas and Germany. The ones in Freemont are accounting for the total production rate of 3/Y there.
Cycle time for these is shown in videos and someone timed it, but I don't recall how long it was. Seems like it was under a minute with one robot arm for handling the finished casting and two for preparing the dies for the next cycle.
There is only the one press so far for Cybertruck, and it isn't on site yet, but could be fine for initial production. IDRA may have already begun building the second one for CT.
Seems like there was accommodation for six or eight casting slots to cover all models in the building at GigaTexas.
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It appears at least 2 per production line. They have had 2 operational in Fremont doing rear castings for the last couple of years. From the Fremont drone flyovers you can see they have completed castings stored in their thousands all over the site. So I would confidently say that 2 Gigapresses are easily able to keep up with production for the rear castings used there. If we say Fremont is 500,000 Model 3 + Y per year then this could be 2 Gigapress for say 250-300,000 rear castings per year, 125-150,000 minimum each.
Shanghai had at least 3 Gigapresses initially and added more in a later stage, so could be in the order of 6 to produce the rear castings required for the recent upgrade to 14000 Model Y per week. If 6 that's up to 121,300 castings per Gigapress per annum.
For Berlin and Austin they had 2 Gigapresses minimum operational before starting production. At Berlin I believe there are 2 operational and 2 being completed with a maximum of 8 planned for the current casting area. That will eventually do front and rear castings for at least 500,000 Model Y per year, so 125,000 per Gigapress. I believe Texas has around 4 Gigapresses operational doing both front and rear with extra planned to maintain the ramp then also the 9000 ton for Cybertruck.
So it seems around 125,000 castings per annum is a rough minimum run-rate per Gigapress. That works out to 4.2 minutes per casting including down time. IDRA estimate 80-90 seconds cycle time per Gigapress so that includes a lot of downtime. From the Cyber Rodeo videos it appears Tesla are trying to accelerate cycle time per Gigapress by improving cooling. So I would expect the utilisation per Gigapress to significantly increase over time.
Now that is impressive !! I haven't seen that level of charging in my Y yet. 20 to 80 in 15 is the best I have experienced.
The Accountant
Active Member
You mean like this?
The castings inventory at Fremont has been growing lately. At first I wondered it was to establish safety stock in case one of the Giga Presses were to go down for an extended repair. Now I am wondering if it could be backup inventory for Berlin in case a potential energy crisis in Germany surfaces later this year and shuts down Giga Presses there. Are the castings for Model Y in Fremont the same as the castings used in Berlin?
I mean, since it's the weekend and we're talking wrist hardware... here's mine:i got a titanium plate for a broken distal radial, Wolverine
travel in our Teslas is making life fun. we want to do a USA trip next year maybe in cybertruck.
what a great day until the nerve block wears off but i follow docs instructions
hope you have great time
Synthes variable angle distal radius plating system. The cream of the crop. The Tesla of the wrist plates.
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
I appreciate the clarification of source and my post wasn't meant to mean that you were stating things incorrectly but whoever wrote that article. Thank you for posting it because it does have some other good numbers that are nice to have documented in this thread.
While the article's words are wrong I do appreciate the bullish mistake in wording on their part since anyone who has been paying attention will know that earnings will be lower with the GF3 china lock down and bitcoin impairment charges that will greatly affect the Q2 results. If they did correctly say "lower" without clarification of the 2 above mentioned events above it would come off disingenuous of Tesla's true trajectory.
Is it possible that toy might be worth more than a Toyota if kept unopened since 1980? If so, she might want to go back in time. Oh man, DeLorean! (Terrible, I know)
The Volvo hopefully can use ccs enabled super chargers by then, otherwise they might have an issue. Depends on where though, check PlugShare.com and abetterrouteplanner.com for the specific route, there are more 150kW to 350kW (on paper) electrify America options available nowadays. Still a far cry from reliability, convenience and performance of super chargers but lots of change in the last 2 years, more expected if fossil fuel munchkin didn't shoot it down like bbb
Wonder what average would work out to 0 to 90% I am guessing 100kW which would be amazing compared to my 2016 model X90D in which I love road Trips in still but which doesn't reach 120kW peak any more.
You mean 250kW peak ?
Wonder what average would work out to 0 to 90% I am guessing 100kW which would be amazing compared to my 2016 model X90D in which I love road Trips in still but which doesn't reach 120kW peak any more.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Cory is making a point I have made before.
The large "gigapress" castings make old-style fabrications of stamped & welded assemblies uneconomic (as well as technically unattractive) provided that the auto-plants using them are making approximately 250-500,000/year of one vehicle.
If you look at a table of the output of US auto plants very few are more than 250k/year. (I've previously posted this table but cannot find it right now). However if you then look up those borderline plants at ~250k/yr it is noticeable that many of them make more than one vehicle and further inspection shows they are often on dissimilar product platforms. It is unattractive to keep switching tooling in a casting machine like this for all sorts of reasons, some technical, some economic. So most of the ~250k/yr factories could not easily adopt gigapress-style castings.
In fact very few auto-mfg-lines in US or worldwide are at the requisite volume to adopt this technology. Tesla's Fremont factory is (I think) now the #1 in USA and (from memory) there are only a couple of others of similar scale in USA. The distribution is similar worldwide. There are very few car plants in the world that seem to break the 500k/yr barrier, and even fewer do so of just one product or platform.
That is one reason why legacy-auto-mfg never found this sort of technology attractive. But it is of course attractive to Tesla who regard a 500k/yr factory as their current minimum building block (imho). I think one can go further and talk about vehicle platform being the relevant scale-setting item, but I am unsure to what extent the various 3 castings and the Y castings can be formed out of one common tool.
If legacy auto do not make the switch to adopt this (and other, e.g. cell manufacturing which is also a volume game) technologies, and suitably focus their manufacturing onto fewer sites, and reduce product (model) proliferation, they will go bust in this new manufacturing paradigm. Yet if legacy auto do go down this pathway the political wails regarding the lost jobs will destroy any minimal goodwill they still have left.
This also has huge strategic implications for which countries will be able to retain vehicle manufacturing. And that in turn has still more implications for other related clusters, skillsets, and national economies, and minimum strategic asset sets.
(Once a site as-a-whole is at-scale, then it becomes easier to run some sub-scale casting production. That is what we see at Fremont with the S and X now using castings, but first the 3 and the Y are needed to get the Fremont site to a scale where it is economically viable to run those castings in the mix.)
I don't know about that. Impossible this seems.
You’re right I think we arrived more at 25% on that supercharging location. The first one we arrived around 10%. Still shocked by the difference of rate of charging between my Model 3 SR and my Model Y on 300kw supercharging locations. The stops are not long enough I have to rush at the car to move it.
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