Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ByeByeJohnny]

Yeah I was thinking beyond 2025 for high volume CT sales. Sorry, I forgot you were talking about ‘24-‘25.

Model 3 and Y can support 5 million per year I think.

There is a huge benefit to Cybertrucks (or any trucks that are actually used as trucks).

Even if robotaxis becomes relevant in the semishort time span of say 3-5 years and regular car sales start flatlining or going down, trucks (and vans) will continue to be needed longer. It will take some time before FSD will be able to handle a construction worker driving onto a build site needing to back up perfectly to something to load/unload. Or get a van with FSD to double park somewhere while doing deliveries.

There will be a market for privately owned trucks/vans with a steering wheel for a long time yet.

 

[Drax7]

I've said numerous times here, years ago, before Elon said something similar, that I believe energy will be a bigger business than vehicles.

Unfortunately I keep getting disappointed every quarter. I know there are reasons outside Teslas control but I still think it will happen.

My pet peeve is that just like Boring Company will show the world what tunnels can do by building a large scale system in Las Vegas, Tesla should show the world what they can do in energy by taking over an energy company. PG&E might have worked but maybe a smaller one would be easier and still get the point across.

If an area the size of 100 square miles of solar panels powers the entire USA, tesla
could undertake that project or a fraction of it to transition the whole country to renewables.

That in itself too would have a huge impact on carbon emissions.
Apparently there is lots of land and sunshine in Texas.

I have no idea what that would cost, though some
here can estimate .

 

[Nocturnal]

There is a huge benefit to Cybertrucks (or any trucks that are actually used as trucks).

Even if robotaxis becomes relevant in the semishort time span of say 3-5 years and regular car sales start flatlining or going down, trucks (and vans) will continue to be needed longer. It will take some time before FSD will be able to handle a construction worker driving onto a build site needing to back up perfectly to something to load/unload. Or get a van with FSD to double park somewhere while doing deliveries.

There will be a market for privately owned trucks/vans with a steering wheel for a long time yet.

I think there will always be a market for private vehicles. That worker isn't going to unload his tools and crap every night when he get's off work. Same with people who use vehicles for other jobs (sales etc.) or families, or "car people".

I spend a lot of time at Lake Ozark in the summer and while RTs might wind up being more common than Ubers, that would still leave me stuck much of the time.

 

[mongo]

I would argue they already are working on a budget option, just by all the work being done on Model Y. The cost savings should become evident over the next 4 quarters as Austin ramps and margins grow even larger.

If FSD doesn't work out a year from now, you can simply strip down a Model Y to a very basic variant with no self driving hardware and sell it for $32k. That's the equivalent of a $25k gas car, and as low as Tesla should ever have to venture.

The FSD hardware also handles convenience and safety features like AEB, FCW, adaptive cruise, auto wipers, backup camera, and sentry mode.
Though they might be able to make an AP-lite HW version.

 

[bkp_duke]

I think there will always be a market for private vehicles. That worker isn't going to unload his tools and crap every night when he get's off work. Same with people who use vehicles for work (sales etc.) or families, or "car people".

I spend a lot of time at Lake Ozark in the summer and while RTs might be more common that Ubers, that would still leave me stuck much of the time.

Spot on. The US has never really embraced mass transit, I don't expect them to with a Robotaxi fleet. Sure, in certain urban centers, there will be some moderate adoption, and in countries where mass transit is more prevalent it will do well, but not in the USA.

 

[unk45]

Wow. This is nuts!

Tesla Model X And Y Reach Mount Everest Base Camp

Two Chinese Tesla owners managed to reach the base camp of Mount Everest in their EVs. The whole journey was recorded in a video posted by Tesla China.

insideevs.com

A couple years ago there were Tesla cars in Lhasa, the capitol of Tibet,
A quick check shows:

Tesla Superchargers in Kazakhstan | Tesla

Schedule a Tesla test drive at a time and date that is convenient for you.

www.tesla.com

Tesla launches Yunnan-Tibet electric vehicle supercharging line - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

When that is already happening it is only logical that other parts of the Himalayas including Nepal must come soon. There is something quite wondrous about all this.

Within my adult life the first jet flights came to Nepal, I was on one of the first Air India flights. Not too long later in Lhasa there was little traffic of any kind. Now there are Tesla drivers actually driving to these places.
Personally I'm thrilled and amazed. If I were a few decades younger I'd be doing that stuff myself. All I ever did was Paris-Tehran, paved roads all the way even in 1970's. Perhaps the least practical way to take delivery of my friend's new Peugeot 404.

Back in 2012 it was really challenging to make road trips in a Tesla. Now one can, it seems, go anywhere. It's only a matter of time for a Tesla to win Paris-Dakar.

I love Tesla adventures!

 

[mongo]

If an area the size of 100 square miles of solar panels powers the entire USA, tesla
could undertake that project or a fraction of it to transition the whole country to renewables.

That in itself too would have a huge impact on carbon emissions.
Apparently there is lots of land and sunshine in Texas.

I have no idea what that would cost, though some
here can estimate .

100 miles square (10,000 square miles), not 100 square miles.

 

[Drax7]

100 miles square (10,000 square miles), not 100 square miles.

oh, I frequently heard 100 square miles, I will check what Elon said to confirm.

 

[Drumheller]

If an area the size of 100 square miles of solar panels powers the entire USA, tesla
could undertake that project or a fraction of it to transition the whole country to renewables.

That in itself too would have a huge impact on carbon emissions.
Apparently there is lots of land and sunshine in Texas.

I have no idea what that would cost, though some
here can estimate .

Instead of a major single project, we can focus putting solar on roofs, covered parking, canals, and existing structures in general. That would get us there without a massive singular project in one location, which would be a juicy target for those that do such things.

 

[Ogre]

One owner doesn’t necessarily need to own the car that long for the longevity to affect the marketplace. It would show up in the slow depreciation and favorable resale value. Or, leasing may become more popular. Tesla could own the car for 20 years and lease it for like $300/month while still making excellent profit margins because if the vehicle only cost Tesla $40k to produce and deliver, their average monthly cost would be around $200/month. $300/month lease is about the average for the car market right now and far below typical prices for luxury car leases.

The idea of long term leases or leasing used cars is super intriguing. Particularly on a vehicle like the Cybertruck where Tesla could replace/ service nearly everything themselves. So long as the exoskeleton is intact (no accidents), they could lower out the structural battery, upgrade the console, replace carpets, and replace any damaged seats, then polish the exterior, verify or replace the battery, then lease out a damned near new truck again. Total cost to turn it might be a few $1000.

Right now Tesla’s leasing program isn’t a good idea for consumers, but maybe in the future Tesla will assign a more reasonable residual value to their cars and it should be a lot more affordable to lease one.

 

[Kenypowa]

I think there will always be a market for private vehicles. That worker isn't going to unload his tools and crap every night when he get's off work. Same with people who use vehicles for work (sales etc.) or families, or "car people".

I spend a lot of time at Lake Ozark in the summer and while RTs might be more common that Ubers, that would still leave me stuck much of the time.

Even when Robotaxi is a thing, private car ownership will not decrease much.

I rent out a non-Tesla car on Turo, and let me tell you even the best customers don't leave the car clean. I'd spent between half to an hour to clean the car after every customer rental. There is no way I'd share a car with a a stranger three blocks down. So I totally don't buy the thesis that robotaxi will reduce private car ownership.

 

[bkp_duke]

Instead of a major single project, we can focus putting solar on roofs, covered parking, canals, and existing structures in general. That would get us there without a massive singular project in one location, which would be a juicy target for those that do such things.

Not only that, but 100x100 sq miles is pretty easy for a moderate-size storm to cover, impacting production by 80% or more.

I'm sure Elon was just using it as an example. A distributed grid is far more stable and resilient to natural disasters.

 

[StealthP3D]

Spot on. The US has never really embraced mass transit, I don't expect them to with a Robotaxi fleet. Sure, in certain urban centers, there will be some moderate adoption, and in countries where mass transit is more prevalent it will do well, but not in the USA.

Robotaxi is not mass transit (or the word "mass" doesn't mean anything). The average number of people sharing a robotaxi will look similar to private cars (somewhere between 1 and 2).

 

[bkp_duke]

Robotaxi is not mass transit (or the word "mass" doesn't mean anything). The average number of people sharing a robotaxi will look similar to private cars (somewhere between 1 and 2).

People here keep talking about how robotaxi will replace private ownership for most autos. Here in the US, I'm calling BS on that claim. Judgement is still out on other countries where private auto ownership is much lower.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Even when Robotaxi is a thing, private car ownership will not decrease much.

I rent out a non-Tesla car on Turo, and let me tell you even the best customers don't leave the car clean. I'd spent between half to an hour to clean the car after every customer rental. There is no way I'd share a car with a a stranger three blocks down. So I totally don't buy the thesis that robotaxi will reduce private car ownership.

I agree. In fact I believe once successfully deployed private car ownership will increase as people find it a good investment to increase their personal fleet to operate a dedicated robotaxi

 

[Gigapress]

Not only that, but 100x100 sq miles is pretty easy for a moderate-size storm to cover, impacting production by 80% or more.

I'm sure Elon was just using it as an example. A distributed grid is far more stable and resilient to natural disasters.

He said he was just using it as an example and he’s not the first to do it. It just gives an idea of scale. A giant singular solar farm in Arizona would have a lot of problems, the biggest of which would be the transmission costs rendering it non competitive. Best to have solar power production much closer to the load. The question is whether it should be 1 meter away, 10m, 1 km, etc.

 

[bkp_duke]

He said he was just using it as an example and he’s not the first to do it. It just gives an idea of scale. A giant singular solar farm in Arizona would have a lot of problems, the biggest of which would be the transmission costs rendering it non competitive. Best to have solar power production much closer to the load. The question is whether it should be 1 meter away, 10m, 1 km, etc.

Me, personally, I like energy independence. I know that's not an option for everyone, but the utilities here in San Diego county have the highest rates in the nation (now surpassing Hawaii). There is no rational justification for prices here to be 5X what they are in middle-america. The grid is not substantially "better" - as is evidenced by our frequent power shutoffs for high wind.

I went with 4 powerwalls and a large enough solar array to keep them and 2 cars charged up, simply because I don't trust the utilities here not to price gouge further.

 

[SmokyPeat]

oh, I frequently heard 100 square miles, I will check what Elon said to confirm.

22,000 sq. miles is the govt. figure. Quite a few variables like location, land area vs. panel surface area etc. No reason solar needs to provide 100% of our power anyhow- wind, geothermal, etc. have important roles to play as well.

Quarterly Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, NREL conducts a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry.

www.energy.gov

 

[lafrisbee]

Spot on. The US has never really embraced mass transit, I don't expect them to with a Robotaxi fleet. Sure, in certain urban centers, there will be some moderate adoption, and in countries where mass transit is more prevalent it will do well, but not in the USA.

Since just opinions are being given.
In my socio-economic level taking a taxi was considered a luxury. You don't have to be around the public, which is one of the three reasons mass transit does not work.
The two others are there is no infrastructure for a true physical "Mass" transit system, and the inconvenient time schedules. A person has to first make it to a pick up point, WAIT(!), and then when at the end of mass transit line they have another leg of the trip to complete.
So my mind screamed, "NO." If my fat butt can walk out the door, sit down in some quiet place, and then end up directly outside where I want then you just made my day like no one else could...especially Not public transport nor me driving my own car... or a regular taxi with a person I do not ever care to talk with or trust driving the car.
I firmly see robo-taxis being embraced by all us ants. It will be the first time since prom night we get to be treated so good by the mass transportation industry... actually by anyone that is willing to take us anywhere.
AND at a fraction of a taxi or personal automobile.

 

[larmor]

A couple years ago there were Tesla cars in Lhasa, the capitol of Tibet,
A quick check shows:

Tesla Superchargers in Kazakhstan | Tesla

Schedule a Tesla test drive at a time and date that is convenient for you.

www.tesla.com

Tesla launches Yunnan-Tibet electric vehicle supercharging line - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

When that is already happening it is only logical that other parts of the Himalayas including Nepal must come soon. There is something quite wondrous about all this.

Within my adult life the first jet flights came to Nepal, I was on one of the first Air India flights. Not too long later in Lhasa there was little traffic of any kind. Now there are Tesla drivers actually driving to these places.
Personally I'm thrilled and amazed. If I were a few decades younger I'd be doing that stuff myself. All I ever did was Paris-Tehran, paved roads all the way even in 1970's. Perhaps the least practical way to take delivery of my friend's new Peugeot 404.

Back in 2012 it was really challenging to make road trips in a Tesla. Now one can, it seems, go anywhere. It's only a matter of time for a Tesla to win Paris-Dakar.

I love Tesla adventures!

That is good to hear. Back in 2018, i had trouble going from dallas to houston in a model X with poorly functioning chargers.