Sounds like the race is on between her retirement and GM bankruptcy.Checked earlier, she's 61 in December.
Any bets which comes first ?
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Sounds like the race is on between her retirement and GM bankruptcy.Checked earlier, she's 61 in December.
It's tricky. My ROI in the midwest is just ok with the federal credit. Without that it would take me forever to recoup the costs.I don't mind if subsidies go away. They have been in place for decades now, originally when solar was 10-20X more expensive than it is now.
Now, there is a solid financial case for solar and solar + batteries which means the industries are mature, and should no longer need subsidies to promote them.
I say it happens at the same time - she retires as part of the agreement from the govt for the next bail out so that "new" management can take over.Sounds like the race is on between her retirement and GM bankruptcy.
Any bets which comes first ?
Dont forget that part of the ASP hikes is somewhat offset by the change in product mix as Shanghai continually increases output of SR Y for the global market outside Europe & N. America.He’s getting to those numbers by having expectations that the price hikes ove the past 2-3 quarters will start hitting earnings in a big way starting in Q2.
I would remind people, while ASP increased in Q1, I still haven’t seen the impact from those price hikes actually flow into earnings in any meaningful way. Maybe Q2 is the quarter it finally happens
What comes first is whichever makes Mary the most money.Sounds like the race is on between her retirement and GM bankruptcy.
Any bets which comes first ?
It takes years to design, permit, build and ramp up production of a new factory - even at Tesla speed. Therefore you want to start building those factories long before the demand for your current products have plateaued - if you wait until you reach demand/supply balance on your existing product lines, then your growth will flatline for several years while you design and build factory capacity for your cheaper designs. You don’t have to announce any products years in advance, but you have to plan for their production years in advance.There's just zero reason to move forward on compact/entry-level models when they are unable to meet the demand of their existing higher margin cars. Every single model-2 would take factory time and battery supply away from a higher margin Model 3/Y/S/X
Eventually, when the factories can make all existing models for anyone who wants them in a matter of weeks - that is the time to expand downwards.
What comes first is whichever makes Mary the most money.
Apparently her most recent compensation package is tied to EV sales growth which explains the drive to bottom of the barrel cheap EVs, her compensation is likely based on # of units shipped.
I appreciate the counterpoint. I used to hold the same view as you, thinking that Megapacks will only make sense in certain use cases and other storage technologies will serve other use cases.
But I've been following all these other storage technologies for quite some time. And none of them seem to be going anywhere.
I think the root of the problem is that Lithium batteries have been too successful. And when one solution proves itself, that solution gets all the R&D money to improve and extend its usefulness. So Lithium batteries will continue to get better and cheaper. Sodium batteries probably have a good shot too because it is similar enough and we will need a Lithium alternative. But any non-cell storage technology is doomed. (The exception is pumped hydro in locations where that makes sense).
As for straight up competition in the Megapack space, Tesla has a huge competitive advantage. Only the Chinese battery makers have a chance to match Tesla's cost at the pack level. And utility customers will want a name they can trust. They will want a company with serious battery management system credibility. That's Tesla.
So my Tesla Energy thesis is:
1. Lithium and Sodium battery cells are the future of grid storage. I honestly wish it were not true, but it is.
2. While Tesla will have competition from the Chinese, Tesla will have the upper hand everywhere except Asia.
3. Powerwall and VPP will be a fine business, but Megapack will be much larger.
4. Autobidder could also bring in a lot of revenue, but I don't yet grasp its potential.
The potential for Tesla Energy is much greater than the auto business. It's just a matter of waiting for $/mWh to keep dropping.
The price of lithium-ion battery cells declined by 97% in the last three decades. A battery with a capacity of one kilowatt-hour that cost $7500 in 1991, was just $181 in 2018. That’s 41 times less. What’s promising is that prices are still falling steeply: the cost halved between 2014 and 2018. A halving in only four years.
If CT achieves even 1/10 of 500,000K annual sales this decade, the only thing any of us will be eating is lots and lots of caviarIn about 6 years or less it will probably surpass 500,000K in annual sales and you will be glad you didn't specify what you would eat.
But realistically speaking, is anybody actually expecting a tesla with FSD to achieve even level 3 in the next 5 years?... I can’t imagine anyone who has driven it thinking we are anywhere close to autonomis driving....
Futurist Ray Kurzweil has observed that humans have a hard time imagining the result of exponential change. We tend to think of change as linear, and get very surprised when an S-curve turns from relatively flat to heading for the stars.
If Tesla's FSD is improving exponentially, which seems likely, then the past rate of improvement is not a good guide to the future rate. The fleet providing driving data is growing exponentially. Auto-labeling of that data is/will be exponentially faster. The size and power of AI neural nets is growing exponentially. If Dojo is online as rumored, or close to it, look out.
We might be close to the point where FSD improvement starts to (in Kurzweil's words) "explode with unrelenting fury."
The Inventor of Chess and the Emperor of China
Oh they're all scum, I'm not defending CA. I'm just saying the aggression toward homeowners by utility-backed politicians is FAR worse in literally all the other SW states.I've lived on both coasts, and in the middle of the country. CA utilities are MORE corrupt than most, and their hostility to solar is a substantial change in CA in the past 5-7 years. In some states, there is a degree of competition (at least at the power producer level) that keeps the utilities somewhat honest. In CA, the utilities are guaranteed monopolies and the governing body that is supposed to set rates is heavily influenced by their political contributions.
TRIVIA FACT - the San Diego state assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez (D) that sponsored much of the anti-solar legislation in recent years (Gonzalez’s latest folly would kill rooftop solar | California Focus) is also the one that told Elon to go F himself. She has resigned . . . to take a lobbying position, LoL.
CA is no longer solar-friendly to the same degree they were previously, and it's deteriorating further. In fact, the utilities are downright solar hostile now.
Trivia fact - in 2021, Texas had more NEW solar installations than California, and if you look at the year over year trend, it's growing. California is no longer the bastion of renewable energy they once claimed to be, they are getting passed by other states.
10 States Are Leading Solar Energy Installation 2024 - EcoWatch
Not all states have the same sunshine, regulations and market forces. Given these variations, which states are leading when it comes to solar PV installations?www.ecowatch.com
I'm ELATED that Tesla is forming Virtual Power Plants with their distributed solar+powerwall installations, AND paying their customers handsomely for their participation ($2/kwh during peak draw events). If this can be scaled, it would be a TRUE COMPETITOR to the entrenched utilities, and offer a glimmer of hope for those that really want fairness for utility rates.
Why do you say $800?Ya, and where's that MMD today? Saving their float tokens for later in the week is my hunch.
Feeling like 800 is possible ahead of earnings. But wow, where did the 1,000 calls come from? Is that new?
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How do you not get put on TSLAQ blacklist? My first TSLA support post 3 years ago and I got immediately put on blocklist:Gordon and Mark Speigel are friends.
I’d probably tear my ears off if I had to listen to them chat for over 15 minutes.