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@StarFoxisDown! seeing TSLA underperform its beta by a factor of 7

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Considering I called this exact day of trading last week, not a single ounce of me is surprised. The only thing I got wrong is that wall st didn’t even need a hot piece article to drop the stock.

Just another week of TSLA trading like a dog.
 
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Yesterday, the Barrett Riley crash jury trial reached a verdict. If I understand correctly, the total damages were $10.5 million and Tesla was 1% responsible, meaning that Tesla would be on the hook $105,000.

Law360, Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (July 18, 2022, 6:21 PM EDT) -- A jury on Monday found Tesla negligent for a crash in a 2014 Model S that killed two Florida teens and awarded $10.5 million in damages, but assigned 99% of the blame for the crash to the teenage driver and his father.

 
Cory is making a point I have made before.

The large "gigapress" castings make old-style fabrications of stamped & welded assemblies uneconomic (as well as technically unattractive) provided that the auto-plants using them are making approximately 250-500,000/year of one vehicle.

If you look at a table of the output of US auto plants very few are more than 250k/year. (I've previously posted this table but cannot find it right now). However if you then look up those borderline plants at ~250k/yr it is noticeable that many of them make more than one vehicle and further inspection shows they are often on dissimilar product platforms. It is unattractive to keep switching tooling in a casting machine like this for all sorts of reasons, some technical, some economic. So most of the ~250k/yr factories could not easily adopt gigapress-style castings.


In fact very few auto-mfg-lines in US or worldwide are at the requisite volume to adopt this technology. Tesla's Fremont factory is (I think) now the #1 in USA and (from memory) there are only a couple of others of similar scale in USA. The distribution is similar worldwide. There are very few car plants in the world that seem to break the 500k/yr barrier, and even fewer do so of just one product or platform.

That is one reason why legacy-auto-mfg never found this sort of technology attractive. But it is of course attractive to Tesla who regard a 500k/yr factory as their current minimum building block (imho). I think one can go further and talk about vehicle platform being the relevant scale-setting item, but I am unsure to what extent the various 3 castings and the Y castings can be formed out of one common tool.

If legacy auto do not make the switch to adopt this (and other, e.g. cell manufacturing which is also a volume game) technologies, and suitably focus their manufacturing onto fewer sites, and reduce product (model) proliferation, they will go bust in this new manufacturing paradigm. Yet if legacy auto do go down this pathway the political wails regarding the lost jobs will destroy any minimal goodwill they still have left.

This also has huge strategic implications for which countries will be able to retain vehicle manufacturing. And that in turn has still more implications for other related clusters, skillsets, and national economies, and minimum strategic asset sets.

(Once a site as-a-whole is at-scale, then it becomes easier to run some sub-scale casting production. That is what we see at Fremont with the S and X now using castings, but first the 3 and the Y are needed to get the Fremont site to a scale where it is economically viable to run those castings in the mix.)
I'm not sure why you'd assume that. I can't say I've worked with molds the size of what the Gigacasting machines use, but in a great many plants, large injection molds, as well as die casting molds, are changed regularly. "Quick die change" (or mold change as the case may be) is a fundamental part of high-volume manufacturing. It's been nearly 40 years since I worked at GM, but even then, a mold in a 1000 ton injection mold machine would be changed in well under an hour. That was before the whole "quick change" model was empathized; I'm sure things are a lot more refined these days.
 
Yesterday, the Barrett Riley crash jury trial reached a verdict. If I understand correctly, the total damages were $10.5 million and Tesla was 1% responsible, meaning that Tesla would be on the hook $105,000.




I really hope that Tesla is smart and doesn't appeal this judgement, and just accepts the outcome. 1% is a "token" responsibility assignment.
 
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another lawsuit, this time in Berlin by German "consumer group" vzbv

alleges Tesla:

- untruthful about CO2 impact as it sells carbon credits to other manufacturers allowing them to pollute
- does not tell buyers they must comply with European data regulations when using Sentry mode

CO2 claim is odd, as in reality all it does is pay Tesla rather than face government fines, credits do not increase/decrease CO2 just adjust the direction and amount of fines.

data regs should be easily dealt with in the small print I would guess.

🤷‍♂️

With every one of these lawsuits out of Germany, I am still amazed that Elon chose to put a gigafactory in this country.
 
Incorrect, I have a business partner in NV, and the utilities commission, under great public pressure, restored a reasonably fair version of net metering back in 2017.

From Wikipedia (Net metering in Nevada - Wikipedia):
"The previous version of net metering in Nevada was shut down by the state legislature and carried out by the Public Utilities Commission in December 2015. Under the new system, new rooftop solar customers will receive a reimbursement equal to a percentage of the retail price of electricity whenever they send their own energy back to the electric grid. That percentage rates are known as "tiers" and will start at 95% of the retail price for the first 80 MW of installed capacity."

It's not a 1:1, but it's very close and very fair for residential customers, and the lowest reimbursement rates will ever drop is 1:0.75. That's fair and reasonable for a "connectivity charge" and allows for people to overprovision their solar systems in order to have effectively a net-zero bill.


The above law was signed by the governor in June 2017.
There's about 20 threads on this within the Energy forums on TMC, go check em out.

It's certainly no surprise the PUC and governor did a 180 2-3 years after their wildly unpopular moves bankrupted SolarCity and stalled the entire residential solar market nationwide. They got caught doing the singular bidding of nvenergy and folks found out.

I'm not sure how it's even remotely defensible. Probably the most damaging effort against US solar other than Reagan being elected.
 
With every one of these lawsuits out of Germany, I am still amazed that Elon chose to put a gigafactory in this country.
They have the best engineers in the world, a commitment to highly efficient domestic heavy industry, and single-handedly scaled the market for renewables worldwide over the last 25 years?

You think Tesla's not being attacked in the US?
 
I really hope that Tesla is smart and doesn't appeal this judgement, and just accepts the outcome. 1% is a "token" responsibility assignment.
Next month there is another jury trial for damages on the passenger. The dynamics are complicated and it's unknown what all of the litigants are seeking out of the lawsuits. Seems possible that none are really doing it for the money at stake in the suits.
 
Except if the 99% of responsibility were on the family how would they pay themselves damages?

They don't in cases like these.

EDIT - clarification: if the judgement is against the son driving the car, his insurance isn't going to pay out to the family, who is under the same policy. There are clauses in the insurance against things like this.

Tesla will likely pay the 1%, and call it a day. At least one hopes they do that. Their "culpability" probably stems from a tech removing the speed limiter when the family had it installed. Given that the kid was not the owner of the car, the service center should have called and confirmed that with the parents before doing such.
 
I really hope that Tesla is smart and doesn't appeal this judgement, and just accepts the outcome. 1% is a "token" responsibility assignment.
That is certainly the quick and cheap thing to do, but it sets a precedent for future litigation. “Tesla accepted blame for part of the damage so the should accept blame for this lawsuit too.”