Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

You mean the cryptic comment that "specific to the dry process, we made great progress in Q2"? I took that to mean they figured out how to get a dry cathode (the six month old 4680 that The Limiting Factor got seemed to only have a dry anode). But I'm not sure what this has to do with Munro's teardown?

The cells in the pack Munro are tearing down are from Kato Rd and may have been produced several months ago, we don't know when the dry process progress was made relative to when the cells where produced.

If they only started using DBE on the cathode in Q2. there may be a cycle of testing and validation that takes several months.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm one. My car has been training me for many months to understand and avoid its many failure modes when FSD is on. The frequency of failures has been going down, and the number of failure modes has been decreasing as well. But when I get an update and an old failure mode returns I recognize it right away.

Those new, or newer, to FSD aren't nearly as highly trained and are therefore more likely to run into trouble of one kind or another. And certainly their tension level will be higher than mine.

I was poking a little fun because I'm a FSD beta tester (and so is my wife). The point is, any Joe Blow Tesla owner can be a FSD beta tester, so it makes little rational sense to say the very low FSD accident rate is the direct result of fairly highly trained beta testers. Yet that was the claim.

 

[MP3Mike]

The cells in the pack Munro are tearing down are from Kato Rd and may have been produced several months ago, we don't know when the dry process progress was made relative to when the cells where produced.

If they only started using DBE on the cathode in Q2. there may be a cycle of testing and validation that takes several months.

It sounded to me like the main DBE improvement was automation related. Resulting in higher throughput and quality.

 

[StealthP3D]

Ooooh. That hurts! Have you got some sort of list of people who said stupid things? How/why did you find a quote from me from 2019???

TMC maintains the list, I just have to search for @Cosmacelf and "demand" (before 2020). I found a whole bunch which informed that my memory was not faulty, I just quickly picked that one because it also pertained to another pet peeve of mine that is related to demand problems, people saying Tesla should spend money on advertising!

But don't worry, it was meant to congratulate you for growing out of that phase long ago! I've noticed the welcomed change!

 

[Gigapress]

Anybody interested in starting a company for lithium refining?

 

[phantasms]

Anybody interested in starting a company for lithium refining?

I don't know anything about it but yes!

 

[EldestOyster]

Anybody interested in starting a company for lithium refining?

It's gotta be more profitable than mining cryptocurrency. Elon should remind them of that at every opportunity.

 

[betstarship]

I applied average sales price and...nothing was really learned.

ASP : Average sales price (e.g. automotive revenue / deliveries)
P&D Price : share price end of day after the P&D report
Total run-rate : total quarterly deliveries x 4
Minimum IC : Minimum installed capacity reported

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Wanted to post this here for the record. 2022 Q3 estimated EPS is $3.07. We'll see how much that changes as we get closer

 

[Knightshade]

Wanted to post this here for the record. 2022 Q3 estimated EPS is $3.07. We'll see how much that changes as we get closer

View attachment 830838

Q3 estimate below Q1 actual is an...interesting...choice...

 

[Gigapress]

Elon said in October at Giga Brandenburg county fair that Berlin should hit greater than 5k per week by end of year with hopefully 10k/wk. The ensuing 6-month delay wasn't expected so targeting 5k/wk now is reasonable and basically just affirms the original goal with a few months of delay built in.

Still hard to predict steep part of S-curve. Could be a lot higher or lower.

Reasonable for Austin to approximately match Berlin as they started at almost exactly the same time.

40k/week * 52 weeks/year = 2.1M/yr

Here's a bearish scenario for Q4, assuming that gross profit per car only rises slightly to $18k.

Q4 2022 Estimates (Annualized)
1.1	Shanghai
0.55	Fremont
0.25	Berlin
0.25	Austin
2.15	Volume (m)
$62	ASP (k)
$134	Rev (b)
$44	Avg CoGS (k)
30.0%	Gross Margin
$40	Gross Profit (b)
$1	Energy Profit (b)
-$7	OpEx (b)
$23	Net earnings per share if 20% income tax and 1.2 billion shares outstanding fully diluted
70	P/E for Q4 (not trailing twelve months)
$1,600	Stock Price

And here's a scenario that's more likely in my opinion. The differences are:

• $1k extra for ASP
• $2k less for cost per car
• 15% income tax instead of 20%
• Somewhat higher production volume
• 80 P/E ratio instead of 70, reflecting likely market reaction to faster earnings growth relative to the bear case

Q4 2022 Estimates (Annualized)
1.2	Shanghai
0.6	Fremont
0.30	Berlin
0.25	Austin
2.4	Volume (m)
$63	ASP (k)
$150	Rev (b)
$42	Avg CoGS (k)
34.0%	Gross Margin
$51	Gross Profit (b)
$1	Energy Profit (b)
-$7	OpEx (b)
$32	Net earnings per share
80	P/E for Q4
$2,546	Stock Price

This is why I have been buying a lot of call options at $1300-$2500 strike price for 2023 and 2024. Not investment or financial advice.

 

[hobbes]

That would be nice... Anyone have an opinion on TeslaBoomerMums qualification? Gary seems to think highly of her.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549927160869265409

 

[WolfHero]

That would be nice... Anyone have an opinion on TeslaBoomerMums qualification? Gary seems to think highly of her.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549927160869265409

Here is a video where ex-Tesla employee turned youtuber interviewing her:

 

[mongo]

Looks like the new FUD being pushed is that free cash flow is actually negative but the BTC sale "cooked the books".

Does anyone remember around when they bought? I want to say it was 24-27k or so based on our guesses.

Well cash went up $902M, BTC sales was $936M, and they paid off $402M of debt... So no way do you look at it was cash flow negative.

And wasn't BTC included in the cash, or equivalents, already?

BTC was an asset, turned into cash when sold.
Without BTC, cash flow would be $-34M.
Except it wouldn't, because advanced debt repayment is optional, as was the $90M purchase of marketable securities.

Correction to my post, Free Cash Flow (operating cash flow - CapEx) was $621M and did not include BTC sale.
The $902M is just the change in cash balance (which does include BTC).

 

[SN_8]

Anybody interested in starting a company for lithium refining?

Sure. I hear it's a license to print money. So we can print the money, partner with Tesla and then put it all in their money furnace. The synergies... not to mention the loud whooshing sound... will be incredible.

 

[Drumheller]

Anybody interested in starting a company for lithium refining?

I do like making money

Seriously, I am going to try and find out more of what it entails. Long shot but worth looking into.

 

[Prunesquallor]

That would be nice... Anyone have an opinion on TeslaBoomerMums qualification? Gary seems to think highly of her.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549927160869265409

She used to work for Moody's.

 

[DarthPierce]

I do like making money

Seriously, I am going to try and find out more of what it entails. Long shot but worth looking into.

Ehh, I'd rather take the >10x I'm expecting by 2030 for no particular effort on my part than risk it in mining.
For the planet's sake however, I wish you luck.

 

[WattsHappening]

Anybody interested in starting a company for lithium refining?

I can contribute one of those sifting pans that the gold rushers used. Good?

 

[Blue horseshoe]

	q3	q4	q1	q2
rev (b)	13.7	17.7	18.7	16.9
veh prod (k)	238	306	305	258
rev / veh prod	$ 57,563	$ 57,843	$ 61,311	$ 65,504

Simplified and will be less accurate over time, but this shows total revenue versus vehicle production. We should see revenue per vehicle produced continue to climb over the next six quarters due to price increases, increased energy revenue, and increased revenue from other sources (service, superchargers, etc)