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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Valuations took a huge hit this year so far, because of rising interest rates as cost of borrowing goes up. However, I feel that Wallstreet does not look at how this impacts each individual company. Tesla with its low debt is practically immune to rising interest rates and deserves massive credit for that.
Pretty much all of the "reasons" for the massive draw downs in valuation across the board don't apply to Tesla

- Interest rates rising? Tesla doesn't have any debt and has plenty of FCF for expansion/growth
- Inflation causing margin compression? Tesla has demonstrated pricing power that more than compensates for inflation. People will point to gross margins declining this quarter as a "Aha told ya!" yet they completely lack the understanding that the entire reason for the drop in gross margin was Tesla reallocating cost associated with Austin/Berlin to COGS
- Inflation/Price hikes hurting demand - Main culprit of inflation is gas/energy prices. Tesla's products are inherently deflationary items which keeps demand high. Tesla has a half year wait list at minimum even after huge price increases in the past year.

Tesla is probably the most inflation and recession proof company I've ever seen thanks to their insane level of efficiency with operations and the fact that their productions are part of a long term secular disruption AND are deflationary to the exact cause/reason of inflation.

TSLA should not only be trading at a one trillion market cap this very moment, but if Wall St had any foresight, it would be higher than it's ATH at the beginning of the year.
 
This is all the more worse because you obviously have some investment smarts - I'll never dismiss you by suggesting otherwise. Yet in all the thousands of posts you have put into here, never once can I remember you admitting to any investment mistake....which I will counsel is a mistake in itself and should be a red flag to others. Let me put that another way: anyone who has not been humbled by some of his investment decisions is a rank novice. Not skilled or unskilled, not lucky - just untempered by the fires of Wall Street.

That's a bunch of BS and you ought to pay closer attention. I've never shied away from admitting making mistakes, all investors make them - it comes with the territory. And I have admitted my biggest one right here, buying Globalstar which eventually went bankrupt. My biggest mistake of omission was being 90% out of the market between 2000 and somewhere around 2009 and I shared that right here too. You just weren't paying attention. An investor's goal is to be wrong less often. My investment style is based on this. Calling me out, saying this behavior is a "red flag to others", when in fact it's false to begin with, shows very poor judgement for someone with moderator powers. It's a beginner mistake and you are not a beginner at this. I'll just chalk it up to your memory being worse than you think it is or perhaps, against all odds, somehow not reading the posts where I actually mention mistakes I've made, but in the future I think you should be more careful about trusting your memory enough to make such unwise statements. Moderators are held to a higher standard and there are good reasons for that.

That said and done with, on to the issue at hand.

Tesla's foray into cryptocurrencies has not, in my very considered opinion, been adequately justified by management. The cringingly best argument is that by doing so, the company was looking to endear itself to a new kind of investor.

That Tesla did so is an understandably divisive move, with both Tesla bulls and bears having strong opinions regarding it. For you to write "Get over it!" is so smarmy, so cringe-worthy on all levels that it brings suspicion everything else you ever did or may write here.

Yes: many of us believe that Tesla Inc. is an automobile manufacturer and an energy provider of manifold permutations, and likewise has no business - business in the strongest sense of the word - with cryptocurrencies on its balance sheet. And for those of us who have been shaking our heads since first learning of it, that 75% of that exposure now is gone is a relief and a very good first step. As one who is in that camp, Mr Musk having said (paraphrasing here) "they were not against buying more if they thought it would be useful" is tantamount to revealing that never again will they repeat this mistake.

As for your take on Tesla and crypto, I completely disagree with it and I'm not going to repeat why I think it's an insignificant hill of beans. Perhaps you are too highly educated to see the truth in that. Not all education is good education. And, no, I did not hear Musk say, in so many words, that crypto was a mistake and they would never do it again. If that were the case, they would have sold all their Bitcoin and Dogecoin or announced they planned to sell it all. But you can believe whatever you want, even if the facts contradict it.
 
JPMorgan is the largest financer of fossil fuels on the planet. The company was founded and exists primarily to leverage fossil-based scarcity into profits.

...
JPMorganChase is the largest single financier of the oil and gas industry but as a proportion of risk assets that's not much. $280 billion in oil and gas on a balance sheet of Four Trillion dollars. Not much.
J.P. Morgan began with railroads, steels and other industry NOT oil and gas.
Chase Manhattan began, founded by Aaron Burr in 1799 as the Bank of the Manhattan Company by financing a water system for New-York. They did finance oil and gas in spectacular fashion and had much more colorful pursuits in the 1930's, especially. FWIW both National Iranian Oil Company and Armco were among the largest accounts for The Chase Manhattan Bank in the late 1970's.

So, please keep your facts in order. They truth may not be much better but it is drastically different.
 
I think we will see EPS over $4 in Q3 and over $5 in Q4.
If R&D expenses stay low (like Q2 and it should as they have "no breakthroughs needed" for scaling 4680 and Elon reiterated high confidence in FSD full scale beta by end of year) and ASP continues to rise and factories are full steam will see auto gross margins improve so thinking we do 400k to 450k production in Q3 (remember Q4 2021 production was 305k so expecting the Shanghai 'death star to be fully operational' shouldn't be out of the question).

So more like $5 in Q3 and it is hard to even predict Q4 due to the ramp of 4680s, but could be $6 to $8.

The thing that blows my mind is the "no breakthroughs needed". From an engineering perspective, that has always (ALWAYS) been the bottleneck (the relentless pursuit of manufacturing "takt" time has been the ultimate goal and the light at the end of the tunnel is very bright.)
 
That's a bunch of BS and you ought to pay closer attention. I've never shied away from admitting making mistakes, all investors make them - it comes with the territory. And I have admitted my biggest one right here, buying Globalstar which eventually went bankrupt. My biggest mistake of omission was being 90% out of the market between 2000 and somewhere around 2009 and I shared that right here too. You just weren't paying attention. An investor's goal is to be wrong less often. My investment style is based on this. Calling me out, saying this behavior is a "red flag to others", when in fact it's false to begin with, shows very poor judgement for someone with moderator powers. It's a beginner mistake and you are not a beginner at this. I'll just chalk it up to your memory being worse than you think it is or perhaps, against all odds, somehow not reading the posts where I actually mention mistakes I've made, but in the future I think you should be more careful about trusting your memory enough to make such unwise statements. Moderators are held to a higher standard and there are good reasons for that.



As for your take on Tesla and crypto, I completely disagree with it and I'm not going to repeat why I think it's an insignificant hill of beans. Perhaps you are too highly educated to see the truth in that. Not all education is good education. And, no, I did not hear Musk say, in so many words, that crypto was a mistake and they would never do it again. If that were the case, they would have sold all their Bitcoin and Dogecoin or announced they planned to sell it all. But you can believe whatever you want, even if the facts contradict it.

Man, I hope this keeps up between the two of you, we need a good distraction from the regular (95%) dribble around here. Make it personal, go after the kids and the dogs, the wives, and lord knows the cat, don't forget the cat.

Spend lots of time thinking of and stewing over comebacks using proper witticisms and self accepted logic. Then take all the agrees and disagrees and lols as reinforcement, in any manner one desires.

Seriously, any one on one type bickering belongs privately. In public mods ought exercise better restraint, and non supporting well known members ought recognize they do not own or operate the site. If you keep it public, make sure everyone gets to watch the making up...

Now back to your regularly scheduled red and green screen blips

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That's a bunch of BS and you ought to pay closer attention. I've never shied away from admitting making mistakes, all investors make them - it comes with the territory. And I have admitted my biggest one right here, buying Globalstar which eventually went bankrupt. My biggest mistake of omission was being 90% out of the market between 2000 and somewhere around 2009 and I shared that right here too. You just weren't paying attention. An investor's goal is to be wrong less often. My investment style is based on this. Calling me out, saying this behavior is a "red flag to others", when in fact it's false to begin with, shows very poor judgement for someone with moderator powers. It's a beginner mistake and you are not a beginner at this. I'll just chalk it up to your memory being worse than you think it is or perhaps, against all odds, somehow not reading the posts where I actually mention mistakes I've made, but in the future I think you should be more careful about trusting your memory enough to make such unwise statements. Moderators are held to a higher standard and there are good reasons for that.



As for your take on Tesla and crypto, I completely disagree with it and I'm not going to repeat why I think it's an insignificant hill of beans. Perhaps you are too highly educated to see the truth in that. Not all education is good education. And, no, I did not hear Musk say, in so many words, that crypto was a mistake and they would never do it again. If that were the case, they would have sold all their Bitcoin and Dogecoin or announced they planned to sell it all. But you can believe whatever you want, even if the facts contradict it.
I stand corrected on your not having admitted mistakes. "A bunch of BS" is most definitely not accurately - or even close to accurately - describing my post.

MOD: POST "Get over it" ever again, irrespective of any difference of opinion, and you're in for a long time out.
 
I stand corrected on your not having admitted mistakes. "A bunch of BS" is most definitely not accurately - or even close to accurately - describing my post.

MOD: POST "Get over it" ever again, irrespective of any difference of opinion, and you're in for a long time out.
I and many others respect you both; please take this to DMs
 
Diess leaving, i guess VW with 183 billion in debt can hardly afford
a transition to EVs.

The cash flow necessary just to pay interest becomes daunting.
Can’t substitute a profitable product for an unprofitable product
without compromising your business .

On the other hand they appear too big to fail And
might only transition if the government helps them out.

This could be an interesting show to watch.
 
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