Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

I'm not concerned about this.

It would take much more than a $7.5k discount to make me buy a hydrogen car such as Toyota Mirai. Hideous, slow, dangerous, inconvenient and expensive to fuel, no thanks. If you gave me the car, I would immediately sell it (if possible) and buy a BEV.

Is the situation different for hydrogen semis? I doubt it. Trucking companies don't care about looks or acceleration, but they do care about fueling costs and availability and the occasional explosions at hydrogen stations. Batteries and renewable energy are getting cheaper; fossil fuel extraction and "brown hydrogen" ain't.

Yes, Manchin bows to his fossil fuel campaign-donors, but they are delusional if they think this token incentive will help them. The Green Tidal Wave is coming for them all.

Regardless of what Toyota and the coal companies want, hydrogen is not happening.

In order for hydrogen to take off, someone would need to fund a massive network of fueling stations. While EVs can charge at home, hydrogen requires stations every fill up. Toyota needs 10,000 hydrogen stations in the US to make this interesting. Since they aren't building out the network, nobody else will either. It's DOA.

Likewise for semis. Companies like Pepsi can invest a $10-100k and have super cheap fuel delivered to their facility for free. Just the savings in fuel stops will be massive. Long haul trucking is arguably the only potential for hydrogen. I'm pretty sure most drivers will be ok with stopping once a day for juice will be just fine for most truckers.

Manchin probably knows this, but doesn't care. It's a cheap way to keep his constituents and donors happy and as you suggest ultimately has little to no impact. In 20 years the only brown hydrogen people will talk about will be the kind that stains your drawers.

Spoiler: Hydrogen in your drawers

I know that's methane... don't @ me.

 

[Singuy]

Already a 1 time stipulation on the purchaser. So that wouldnt work.

I have 10 family members, my wife has 30. 40 rebates from one car sounds good to me. And of all 40 people buy a Tesla and sell it to each other, then we will get a total of 1600 rebates.

 

[Snerruc]

Most US employees are getting 3-4% raises this year. I work for a company with thousands of employees. Nobody I know is getting COLA anywhere near 30%

In my area McDonald’s and Walmart are paying $15-18 an hour plus paying for college courses. Our lawn service was paying $9 2 years ago. Now they can’t get help for $18. lower classes are catching up for a change.

 

[Usain]

We all know auto is on the vertical for the S-curve. I would bet the Board see's Energy about to go vertical in the next 18 months as well.

Bullish!

My read on this is that it will take a little longer than 18 months for Energy to go vertical. But your point is well taken.

The problem for the next couple of years will continue to be battery supply. The announcement of Gotion possibly building an LFP plant in the US does give me some hope that "verticality" would start around 2024 or 2025 when the plant is built and ramped up. I could see this plant being built very near Tesla's Megapack factory.

Tesla is rumored to be behind giant deal to bring LFP battery cell production to the US

Chinese battery cell manufacturer Gotion High-Tech confirmed that it entered into a very important deal to supply LFP battery cells...

electrek.co

 

[jerry33]

Is the situation different for hydrogen semis? I doubt it. Trucking companies don't care about looks or acceleration, but they do care about fueling costs and availability and the occasional explosions at hydrogen stations. Batteries and renewable energy are getting cheaper; fossil fuel extraction and "brown hydrogen" ain't.

Once in a while they do care about acceleration. I recall a case where the additional speed allowed the truck to unloaded before quitting time the same day. Previously they would arrive a few minutes too late and so the truck had to stay overnight and be unloaded in the morning. Yes, this is kind of an edge case, but when it happens, it's a big deal.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I like these days where it gradually climbs upwards rather than the yo-yo days

 

[Discoducky]

Why This is Bullish IMO

In exercising these stock options, Kimball paid $1.8m to Tesla for the 25,000 shares and will pay the IRS and Colorado about $7.8m in taxes.
These options would have expired in June 2025; so why did Kimbal exercise them now and lay out the combined $9.6m in cash?

View attachment 833838

When you exercise stock options in the US, you pay at the ordinary income tax rate on the gain between the fair value and strike price.
This tax rate for Kimbal is about 41.5% (Federal and State).
Once exercised, if Kimbal holds the stock for more than a year, he would pay long term capital gains (about 28.3% Fed & State for Kimbal) on the gains above the $824 fair value today.

So the gain up to the $824 share price is at 41.5%
The gain above $824 share price is at 28.3% (if held a year or more)

So why did Kimbal exercise yesterday and not wait until June 2025? He believes share price appreciation is coming soon and wants to lock in the 28% tax rate for the gain on the stock above $824/share . . .and remember, Kimbal is a Board Member and has access to more information than we do.

Based on the timing of this exercise, it feels like something big has caused such an early action.

My gut hunch is that FSD has passed a big hurdle/milestone. I could be wrong, but my AI spidy-sense is going off based on 12.13 things that I'm learning...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Most US employees are getting 3-4% raises this year. I work for a company with thousands of employees. Nobody I know is getting COLA anywhere near 30%

Across the entire tech sector, most employees were getting 7-10% salary hikes over the past year + one time retention stock bonus (that vest over anywhere from 2-4 years) that were in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.

You also have to remember that while inflation has risen 8% and a tech employee only got a 5% raise, that 5% raise is off a higher salary. So the effective hit from inflation for the average tech employees is way less and not relative to the % raise they got.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Based on the timing of this exercise, it feels like something big has caused such an early action.

My gut hunch is that FSD has passed a big hurdle/milestone. I could be wrong, but my AI spidy-sense is going off based on 12.13 things that I'm learning...

I mean.....the fun thing about being a Tesla investor is that there’s a number of things it could be...........FSD, Semi, Energy, Cybertruck, etc...

 

[phantasms]

Been watching the ticker all day. I feel like, maybe, we've got an MM vs squeeze on our hands. Come on 851!

EDIT: Jinxed it! You're welcome!

 

[Drax7]

I have 10 family members, my wife has 30. 40 rebates from one car sounds good to me. And of all 40 people buy a Tesla and sell it to each other, then we will get a total of 1600 rebates.

Consider adopting and expanding to 50

 

[BornToFly]

If you look at the options volume chart in addition to the Open Interest, I'd say the target is 829 for end of trading Friday.

SP was flat for a while, so I rolled down my sold 950 calls to 910 for a few more pennies. Now the MM target is over 910 to screw me over....

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Been watching the ticker all day. I feel like, maybe, we've got an MM vs squeeze on our hands. Come on 851!

EDIT: Jinxed it! You're welcome!

Haha, MM's aren't even sweating today's movement. Volume is rather low so wasn't hard at all to drop it like that. Odds are they're banking on a macro pullback tomorrow

 

[Singuy]

Consider adopting and expanding to 50

Free money Tesla hack will be all over youtube and wall street bets.

 

[Nocturnal]

Based on the timing of this exercise, it feels like something big has caused such an early action.

My gut hunch is that FSD has passed a big hurdle/milestone. I could be wrong, but my AI spidy-sense is going off based on 12.13 things that I'm learning...

 

[wipster]

What I think would be groundbreaking and a real show stopper would be to throw a ball at Optimus and have it catch the ball. I'm talking tossed underhand from a person. Showing the adaptation to a real time problem and using sensors to adjust to the environment is a very simple thought but would show a grand ability overall. I doubt this to be possible but you never know.

Just as long as the hand doesn't break off ...

 

[greenmonk]

Thanks for the clarification. As long as it’s passed soon and applies from when it’s signed that shouldn’t cause to much disruption to Tesla’s operations in the US.

So Teslas won't be eligible for the credit until Jan. 1, 2023 because they already passed the 200,000. The bill's retroactive clause is meant for those who buy an EV, but wouldn't be eligible for the tax credit under the new rules. They will have the choice to use the old rules. That could be for income limits or MSRP limits. For example, a $100k Rivian would be eligible under the old rules, but not eligible under the new rules. Until Jan. 1, 2023, those purchasers would have the choice to use the old rules. I hope that makes sense. It's VERY confusing how they worded everything and very frustrating for Tesla reservation holders. We'll have to see if Tesla has a reaction once the bill is passed. I think a lot of Tesla reservation holders won't qualify under the new rules even if they waited.

 

[stealthyc]

Across the entire tech sector, most employees were getting 7-10% salary hikes over the past year + one time retention stock bonus (that vest over anywhere from 2-4 years) that were in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.

You also have to remember that while inflation has risen 8% and a tech employee only got a 5% raise, that 5% raise is off a higher salary. So the effective hit from inflation for the average tech employees is way less and not relative to the % raise they got.

Not trying to be a jerk, honestly asking if you have a source for your first sentence. I work in tech and have not seen such a thing apart from possibly some silicon valley positions.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Just as long as the hand doesn't break off ...

Even worse would be the ball 'denting' the body

 

[dhanson865]

Just marking the passage of history. Tesla Energy helped make this happen.

Hawaii receives its final shipment of coal amid push to move to renewable sources

Hawaii has set a goal to achieve 100% clean energy by 2045.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

Hawaii received its final planned shipment of coal on Wednesday.

The fuel source, which the state has been using for decades, is bound for AES’s coal power plant at Campbell Industrial Park — the last facility of its kind in the state.

The plant has supplied a significant chunk of Oahu’s power since it opened in the 90s, but it will officially close on Sept. 1. The closure comes as the state continues transitioning to greener energy.