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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Don’t they know that the loyalty score also includes and reflects everything (including quality, accidents etc…).
The highest loyalty says it all, guys!
Yeah the bias is people are just Elon simping fanboys giving Tesla a pass despite killing their own children and grandmas. They said this when Tesla had 20k sales...when volume production hits they will run out of fanboys and demand will drop.
 
Have you guys watched this? Just a goldmine of information, from brand loyalty, sale numbers, competition migration, how Tesla is destroying historical trends, and everything you need to know about this auto game. One gold nugget is that EV loyalty from luxury brand has gone down by 11%, meaning 11% of those who bought other EVs went to Tesla. 95% of household who bought a Tesla went back and bought another Tesla if they were to go for another car.

He brought in Taycan and EQS as examples of many people who owned the S went to them but not many came back, but did add the stipulation that it may be because of model refresh supply issue.

The guy from S&P has personal biases and have on occasion talks about Tesla quality issues and fatal accidents they need to correct. I had no idea people didn't die in other cars...

He also talks about how they model Tesla's marketshare going down to the 20%s, and that there will be an inflection point in which all of Tesla's fatal accidents and poor quality will catch up to them(his personal opinion). I believe these biases feed into why Tesla is not investment grade because most people has these biases.

Anyways, too much good hard data to summarize and every investor should watch this even though some of those personal bias things are hard to watch.

The loyalty factor for Tesla is really off the charts. I remember back to the night of the Model 3 announcement where reservations were insane. I posted here then that Tesla had just moved from a being a manufacturer or cars to a manufacturer of "cool". They had just entered the rarified air of entities like Apple and Starbucks' in terms of consumer mindshare.

It reminds me of a discussion I had with my stepson as he was about to go off to college for an engineering degree several years ago. At that time I tried to convince him to get a Windows-based PC over an Apple Macbook. I pointed out how how he would get more for his money with the Windows laptop, and specialized engineering software might be more available for a Windows machine, etc. Ultimately, he responded with "That might be true, but no one wants to be the only kid in class without a Mac". I conceded defeat...

There are other cars. There are other electric cars, and there are even other better (in a few areas) electric cars...but there is only one Tesla.
 
Trying to stay clear of the PHEV discussion here because we all kind of see the writing on the wall already, but it’s really pretty irrelevant.

Companies that produce PHEVs will get a short term shot in the arm, but at the same time it’s only going to help them for 3-4 years.

As EVs continue to gobble up market share, nobody is going to want PHEVs. Consumers weren’t fooled into thinking a Blackberry is a viable smart phone when they added a web browser to their phones. They won’t be fooled as Toyota saying their PHEVs are “Self charging EVs”.

Some folks will cling to them for edge cases like towing, but ultimately resale values on these are going to collapse as operating costs continue to edge up relative to EVs.
 
I have a PHEV in addition to my Tesla and I don't want it. It's had the typical BMW electronic gremlins and it's newest "feature" is that the pure electric range (summer) dropped from 15-16 when new is now 9-10 miles. It's going in for service because the TPMS is generating errors, so I'm preparing to be entertained by the Li battery discussion with the Stealer's top notch service department. Other owners of the 530e have also reported bad cells and range drops.

Now, even if I plug it in religiously, it isn't going to achieve the EPA rated 67 mpge. As I said before, EPA should rate PHEVs as if they are just plain old HEVs.
 
What you're missing is the average hybrid driver never plugs in their PHEV, they run it completely on gasoline. The EU has proved this with a recent study, and is even now moving to remove all incentives for PHEVs.

So unless you want to get into gasoline rationing and odometer checking, PHEVs are a boondoggle.

The people that use the PHEV like it’s supposed to be used don’t need any incentive beyond equalizing the sticker price with the petrol version. They know they’ll get savings and some environmental benefits as a bonus. The other people are just trying to get the car cheaper with the govt handout and have no intention of using the plug-in.
 
Exxon Mobil and Chevron using the Russian invasion of Ukraine to their advantage to gouge joe public. Blood money. So sad.
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Can't wait until Tesla single handedly puts these miscreants out of business.
 
Changing the subject, is Model S production getting ahead of demand? In Florida there is no reason to order a Plaid. I have a choice of six Plaids I can pick up today. Not a bad drive to any of them.
And still, my 2020 order of a Model S Plaid lacks any ETA here in Norway. The last I heard of it was back in 2021 when they changed it to a plaid from a plaid+. No updates after that. I do not believe they lack demand.
 
He brought in Taycan and EQS as examples of many people who owned the S went to them but not many came back, but did add the stipulation that it may be because of model refresh supply issue.

Not to mention that both the Taycan and EQS have only been out a couple years. There simply is not enough history yet for them to tout that “few Taycan/EQS owners go to Tesla”. Especially when most of those owners are probably still under their original lease terms.

As soon as they got off topic from the actual data, their “analysis” was extremely poor.
 
The loyalty factor for Tesla is really off the charts. I remember back to the night of the Model 3 announcement where reservations were insane. I posted here then that Tesla had just moved from a being a manufacturer or cars to a manufacturer of "cool". They had just entered the rarified air of entities like Apple and Starbucks' in terms of consumer mindshare.

It reminds me of a discussion I had with my stepson as he was about to go off to college for an engineering degree several years ago. At that time I tried to convince him to get a Windows-based PC over an Apple Macbook. I pointed out how how he would get more for his money with the Windows laptop, and specialized engineering software might be more available for a Windows machine, etc. Ultimately, he responded with "That might be true, but no one wants to be the only kid in class without a Mac". I conceded defeat...

There are other cars. There are other electric cars, and there are even other better (in a few areas) electric cars...but there is only one Tesla.
When my daughter was in elementary school, MP3 players were all the rage. That's all she wanted for Christmas. I looked around and decided the Disney MP3 player was the best option. She was young enough that Disney princesses were her thing, it used prefilled SD cards you could buy, no subscription needed. When she opened it I thought she was going to cry. I explained all the benefits it had over the iPod but she only wanted the iPod. No reasoning with her. I knew then that Apply was on to something and knew I'd never sell my then 1000 shares. She got her iPod and multiple new ones there after. Worked out pretty well as an investment over the 20 years I've held AAPL. Now my son only cared about Nintendo. I bought some of that a long time ago, but I'll never make millions off of that.
 
How many of those 10 million are purchased by someone over the income limit and wouldn't qualify for the tax credit? How many meet all the other requirements for the full credit?

Yes this was the case in the UK, where some company cars were found to have the charger in its original packaging never having been opened.
The question? Who was paying for the fuel? The driver, or the company? Much like the other link that mentioned our government buying a bunch of PHEVs that were never charged-government workers have no incentive to put in the tiny amount of effort to plug in to save the taxpayers money. I also question in either case if there was any training or explanation about how to use them.
 
Trying to stay clear of the PHEV discussion here because we all kind of see the writing on the wall already, but it’s really pretty irrelevant.

Companies that produce PHEVs will get a short term shot in the arm, but at the same time it’s only going to help them for 3-4 years.

As EVs continue to gobble up market share, nobody is going to want PHEVs. Consumers weren’t fooled into thinking a Blackberry is a viable smart phone when they added a web browser to their phones. They won’t be fooled as Toyota saying their PHEVs are “Self charging EVs”.

Some folks will cling to them for edge cases like towing, but ultimately resale values on these are going to collapse as operating costs continue to edge up relative to EVs.
Anyone know if the United States was horse feed independent back at the previous turn of the century? Did buggy makers get tax incentives to keep buggy prices reasonable?
 
Not to mention that both the Taycan and EQS have only been out a couple years. There simply is not enough history yet for them to tout that “few Taycan/EQS owners go to Tesla”. Especially when most of those owners are probably still under their original lease terms.
Exactly, and as he alluded to, there is a supply issue. That there are no Model S or Model X vehicles available outside of North America. So if you bought a Taycan, or EQS, in Europe and hate it you can't just go buy a Model S/X. (Which could be why they bought a Taycan or EQS in the first place, like if their Tesla go wrecked.)
 
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If they have a place to plug in then they most likely don't live in an apartment. And since they live in homes, why not get an BEV instead of a PHEV? Skip the whole maintenance issue entirely.

If it's cost, that's likely a misconception. Maybe sticker price is easier, but resale in a few years time? Then there's reliability on a 2x complex system. Doesn't seem like a good consumer investment with robotaxi planned.
Possibly you have someone that takes long road trips on a regular basis and doesn't want to put in the extra time associated with EV charging (yes, I know it's not as bad as some make out-still, you're not adding 400 miles in 5 minutes). Or someone that regularly goes in remote, rural areas, where the nearest DCFC might be 200 miles away (lots of the country isn't like the East or West coast). Or someone that tows on a regular basis (PHEV makes a lot of sense in a truck for that reason). Or simply someone that can't afford the premium of a full EV at this time.

Yes, from an engineering standpoint, they suck. All the complexity, maintenance and failure modes of ICE, plus the cost, weight and complexity of EV, plus the complexity of getting both systems to play together. Still, some companies do so extremely well, and get pretty amazing FE out of them. When the energy density of batteries, and range, is up another 50-75%, charging times come down to no more than 15 minutes for a charge to 100% and DCFCs become as readily available as gas pumps, PHEVs (let alone ICE) make no sense. And I'm convinced that point is coming. But not in the next year or two. It took over a century to get ICE as reliable, inexpensive (relatively speaking) and to build out the infrastructure we have now. Same will happen with EVs, IMO in far, far less time. But not today or tomorrow. By 2030-hopefully. Maybe even 2025-26. When you can buy a Equinox/Rav4/CRV sized CUV that has 300 miles of range at highway speeds (in a fast-charging part of the battery curve) with AC on, with 15 minute DCFC charging and sell for the ~$30k price of those cars in ICE (sure, adjust for inflation), EVs are truly mainstream for everyone. Again, I think it's coming, EVs have so many fewer components and entire systems vs ICE so there will be a lot of room to slash prices as battery manufacturing progresses. Just takes a bit of time.