Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

If you want to imagine Tesla as a monopolist go ahead. There might be stupider opinions, although I doubt it.

It REALLY makes me upset when someone intentionally misstates my statements and opinions.
Yes, I have studies history. Only fools ignore lessons of history.

Never have I suggested doom and gloom. Nothing anything like that. I believe in the Tesla mission and I believe in Elon's way of actually helping competitors when asked, and explicitly helping Tesla suppliers to use Tesla experience to help others.

That, you would probably not know, is how a successful innovator operates. Enlightened self interest requires a modicum of thought.

Yes I do insist on learning enough about countries, people and companies to avoid letting prejudice rule my choices. Sadly, you seem to prefer completely bonkers ideas like world dominance for Tesla. of course you may not believe that, you might just be provoking me.

In the meantime...

 

[thesmokingman]

Did you see what they just reported?

Yea though it's not surprising, kind of fully expected them to flounder a bit. Ramping is hard.


**But holy carp there's some big volume going into it right now. lol right as I type that a handful of huge sells pass by.

 

[Accident]

I expected Lucid to lower guidance so I wrote some call spreads and bought some puts. I'll use the profits to buy more TSLA

 

[GOVA]

We have already passed the original production date target of the cybertruck, and I don't recall the model y being 18 months early. Can you source that, please?

My bad. It was not 18 months earlier. Sorry for any confusion.

I just re-read a few pieces to refresh my memory. It was originally anonunced to ship in Fall of 2020 during March 2019 premiere.
It was mentioned in January of 2021 that it had already been produced in Freemont, so more-less like 6-8 months earlier.
Reference | TheVerge


I'd not reference the original date for the CT as it has already been changed/delayed to mid 2023, so if it shows up earlier that would be a surprise.

 

[Mengy]

I expected Lucid to lower guidance so I wrote some call spreads and bought some puts. I'll use the profits to buy more TSLA

Good decision, their forecast for 2022 production is terrible. They only produced 1405 cars in the first half of 2022 and are only looking to make 6000-7000 for all of 2022 now. Obviously they are having issues ramping production.

 

[thesmokingman]

Good decision, their forecast for 2022 production is terrible. They only produced 1045 cars in the first half of 2022 and are only looking to make 6000-7000 for all of 2022 now. Obviously they are having issues ramping production.

The crazy thing is who believes they could produce 5k-6k cars in 5 months when it took them the first half to get to 1k cars? Wall Street is so full of *sugar*.

 

[jkirkwood001]

...One early obvious example was that only Chinese owned IDRA could muster the capital expense and time to build a 6000 tom press...

...Why doI say that is the final piece? Because that paint shop is essentially impossible to retrofit. It is also essentially impossible to sue without a complete factory OS...

Hmm, he has typos too. I'm sure it's just a coincidence (it was a long reply after all)

 

[henchman24]

Yea though it's not surprising, kind of fully expected them to flounder a bit. Ramping is hard.


**But holy carp there's some big volume going into it right now. lol right as I type that a handful of huge sells pass by.

IMO Any day they are over $8 is another day too long and I feel $8 is quite generous. It isn't worth a short to that level since markets are irrational at times... but they are going to have a very rough go.

I mean even if you assume their short term investments can all be swapped over (and that is a fair assumption) and you discount the purchases of from the cash flow. You have ~5 quarters of cash runway... that's assuming they can even maintain this cash burn when we all know cash burn happens with massive ramps (which still hasn't started). Unless that story turns around in the next 6 months, they'll be doing a secondary sometime in Feb-May of next year... outside chance it happens in November.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I thought 40% of tsla shares are owned by retail. This is significant

I don't know if it's 40%, but it's far higher than most mega caps. Especially when you consider how much of the float is tied up with Elon and insiders.

Combine that with retail options trading and it's not insignificant.

 

[henchman24]

I thought 40% of tsla shares are owned by retail. This is significant

I think it is ~40% of the float.. not so much 40% of the total.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Good decision, their forecast for 2022 production is terrible. They only produced 1405 cars in the first half of 2022 and are only looking to make 6000-7000 for all of 2022 now. Obviously they are having issues ramping production.

They will likely produce about 2k to 3k vehicles this year but they'll keep pretending some higher number is possible until December 31st.

 

[capster]

Actually the numbers that count are those of the largest insider holdings. Those are the ones that usually are big enough to move markets. So, specifically, when Elon Musk decides to sell 10% of his holdings, say, that does move markets. Retail investors could rarely trade in unified direction and quality to move any large cap. Back in 2010 to maybe even 2014 or so, we might have been able to do that.

That begs the question: Why is so much energy and, presumably, coin spent to generate and communicate fear, uncertainty, and doubt, if those on the Street have that view?

 

[Artful Dodger]

LUCID is getting hammered.... surprised?

Lucid Announces Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results, Reports Strong Demand While Lowering Production Guidance for the Year | Nasdaq

NEWARK, Calif., Aug. 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID) today announced financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2022. Lucid reported Q2 revenue of $97.3 million on deliveries of 679 vehicles. The Company reported over 37,000 reservations as of today, representing potential sales of approximately $3.5 billion.​

​

Lucid revised its 2022 production volume outlook to a range of 6,000 to 7,000 vehicles. Lucid ended the quarter with $4.6 billion cash, cash equivalents, and investments, which is expected to fund the Company well into 2023. In addition, Lucid reported first half production of 1,405 vehicles.​

This is the 3rd sequential cut in 2022 volume estimates. In Feb 2022, the company cited supply chain constraints for slashing production expectations to between 12,000 and 14,000 vehicles, down from 20,000 units.

Hmm, seems production IS harder than prototyping...

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA moved above its 50-day simple moving average two weeks ago, and today it closed just under its 200-day SMA. A move above the latter next week would be technically encouraging.

On Monday and Tuesday, TSLA moved above its 200-day SMA intraday, but did not close above. Today it closed above, a welcome technical event.

 

[LodiEVFan]

Do you, Curt Renz - or henchman24, see a potential cup or cup with handle technical pattern forming for TSLA?

 

[The Accountant]

Not sure if this has been covered yet.

In 2020 for the 5-1 split, Tesla:

- announced the split on August 11 (Tuesday)
- for shareholders of record on August 21 (Friday)
- to be distributed after close of trading on August 28 (Friday)
- with trading at new adjusted split on August 31 (Monday)

For this 3-1 split, what we could see is:
- announce the split on August 5 (Friday) or August 8 (Monday)
- for shareholders of record on August 19 (Friday)
- to be distributed after close of trading on August 26 (Friday)
- with trading at new adjusted split on August 29 (Monday)

There is a possibility that Tesla moves it up earlier with record date of Fri Aug 12, distribution Fri Aug 19 and trading split adjusted on Mon Aug 22.

I believe the stock usually runs up the week of the "Record Date" as people want to own the stock to get the split. In my first scenario that would be the run up to August 19.

 

[damonbrodie]

Elon said CT deliveries could start middle of 2023, so is it all that crazy someone got a delivery estimate?

Only reason I don't believe it is that 2,000 other people haven't chimed in or Tweeted anything. Should be an update tonight I assume.

We're a year away from deliveries to start and there is a big blocker remaining in the 4680 ramp. It's only been a couple weeks since we heard about the impressive improvements to the ramp from Elon and Drew, but they still expressed (in their own way) the opinion that there was quite a ways to go before they have the scale they need. I'm sure they will be shouting from the rooftops when the 4680 scale meets their internal expectations.

 

[Curt Renz]

Teslarati - today:
Tesla owner who claimed an “Autopilot crash” loses license in China

 

[StealthP3D]

Do you, Curt Renz - or henchman24, see a potential cup or cup with handle technical pattern forming for TSLA?

I didn't see a cup, I saw a stein with handle forming. It was big too, at least 24 ounces.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Do you, Curt Renz - or henchman24, see a potential cup or cup with handle technical pattern forming for TSLA?

I mean, if you look at the 5 year chart, you could say that the mother of all cup n handles has been forming since Nov 1st. Which would be getting back to ATH + 10%, then trimming 5-10% off of that......followed by a rocket higher