Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Haha what? TSLA now down 10X the Nasdaq. The stock is going to end the day right around 900 regardless of what the macros do.

Usually if we're above 8-9M in volume the first hour of trading, capping is less likely to hold up. We were at nearly 10M today.

And the call wall at 900 is pretty small. I think the algos abandon it before lunch and we head north. I'm an optimist tho.

Everyone's screwed around 935, which was also the pm high. Maybe that's the landing spot?

 

[Nocturnal]

Actually, that could be the best possible long-term scenario (bill passes now but gets scuttled a couple years down the road). This will give raw materials suppliers and battery makers all the incentives to invest big now while yanking life support from inefficient EV makers down the road and letting them fail. Tesla can take advantage of the beefed-up EV supply chain to continue growing like gangbusters!

There is nothing environmental about an EV manufactured inefficiently when you compare it to an EV manufactured more efficiently and more affordably (without tax credits). Tax credits subsidize inefficient manufactures to consume the limited supply of raw materials that could be used by more efficient manufacturers.

The goal of these things should be to bootstrap an industry vs creating an industry that is dependent on welfare, so definitely agree.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Usually if we're above 8-9M in volume the first hour of trading, capping is less likely to hold up. We were at nearly 10M today.

And the call wall at 900 is pretty small. I think the algos abandon it before lunch and we head north. I'm an optimist tho.

Everyone's screwed around 935, which was also the pm high. Maybe that's the landing spot?

IDK... looking at Put Volume, focus seems to drop it under the 900 mark today. And 50,000 seems like a lot.
Desperate times for those on the dark side - wishing them all the best.

 

[betstarship]

This board is putting me at ease, I need to sell a little Tesla for an angel investment and trying to time the next day or two a little

 

[bkp_duke]

Well, that's better than most legislators who will actually vote on it can claim! The bill is so misguided it's depressing. Like Elon said, EV's don't need government tax credits to win big. This is nothing more than a bailout of legacy automakers (even if Tesla does benefit from it incidentally). Shameful.

In current form, if the union-labor crap is in it, I hope this bill dies a painful death.

Tesla doesn't need any of these subsidies in order to sell every car they make, and that's growing 50% YoY. The bill is a "bailout in disguise" for the traditional ICE automakers, and now the corrupt unions. The provisions that a hybrid PHEV with just 7kwh of batteries qualified for the full credit was bad enough, but now it's even worse.

Letting it die would simply accelerate Tesla's climb to dominate not just EVs, but all autos.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

IDK... looking at Put Volume, focus seems to drop it under the 900 mark today. And 50,000 seems like a lot.
Desperate times for those on the dark side - wishing them all the best.

View attachment 837053

Glorious day for those in the options thread. MM's to the rescue!

Taking a step back, today really illustrates my near term thesis that we're headed to ATH real soon(like now-ish). The floor is rising dramatically as we creep toward all these earnings that grow more certain by the day.

Folks in the other thread are feverishly selling put spreads at $780/680 without a care in the world. That's too much free premium to be giving away. It's not sustainable for the options market.

Plus we're now "up", relative to the recent past, so folks selling covered calls are safer too. As illustrated beautifully today.

The options market dictates we cannot stay in this 800-1000 middle ground.

 

[henchman24]

Overall market flirting with a breakdown to the ~12,300-12,400 level and SP500 under 4100. Both would put in sight a move down if CPI comes in bad on Wednesday.

 

[The Accountant]

After listening to Elon yesterday about the 2m run rate at year end, I went back to my forecast to tweak it.
I am still at 1.4m for the year with Dec showing a 2m run rate. It is looking more and more to me that my bullish forecast is a layup for Tesla (barring any lockdowns or black swans). My numbers may be too low.

See details here in the financials thread: 2022 Delivery Estimates

 

[petit_bateau]

Spain is the second largest producer of automobiles in Europe, also while much of Western Europe has seen gigantic drops in production, Spain has seemed to fare much better:
View attachment 837028

Also, when solar takes over and Spain becomes the “sun basket” of Europe, it’ll probably have the lowest energy prices on the continent as well.

Spain can't get excess solar or wind energy to a wider market, with the very minor exception of Portugal. The reason is that France has de facto blocked high capacity transmission crossing the French/Spanish border, thereby preventing excess Spanish renewables from undercutting French nuclear. This acts to protect French nuclear both in its domestic market and its its natural adjacent markets. One can have long complicated debates about whether this should be permitted, but it is the reality. The practical upstream effect has been to inhibit the gowth of a solar and wind manufacturing industry in Spain, beyond that which might be justified by its domestic needs. As such this means that manufacturers in Spain have not been able to reach the necessary scale to compete with the Chinese. (Offshore cables might debottleneck this, they are endlessly proposed).

Despite that Spain has done a pretty fair job on decarbonisation so far.
La Moncloa. 27/12/2021. Spain meets European targets for renewables and energy efficiency in 2020 [Government/News]

The Spanish car plants can get their products to markets via rail and/or sea without a commensurate level of French throttling. These car plants have had both good and bad patches. Other good car plant candidates within the EU apart from Spain and which have the necessary size to asorb a Tesla facility, and cost-effective workforce are Poland (but a bit close to Germany), Bulgaria or Romania. Outside EU one could propose Ukraine (good, apart from a war) or Turkey (iffish under Erdogan, almost uninvestable) or UK (nightmare post-Brexit, don't go there). Perhaps Hungary (nightmare politics with Orban). All European governments will have the taxpayer cheque book at the ready.

Personally my bet is that Brazil is next up on the board. However I note that presidential elections are a two round affair and will take place in October this year. I have my head in my hands at the thought of a Bolsonaro vs Lula choice. Later this year might mean after that election has concluded.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Somewhere in the universe....$TSLQ is rejoicing screaming "I told you so....." from its high of $50

 

[S3XY]

Haha, Elon said "I'm half-Canadian". That's his mother's side of the family. His dad was a chiropractor in a little town near Moose Jaw, SK. His Aunt (also his mother's twin sister), still lives in Calgary, AB.

If there's to be a Canadian Gigafactory, it'll need a good logistics connection to Sudbury, ON.

Cheers!

Do you think is I created the crypto currency called Looneycoin that Elon would promote it?

 

[Nocturnal]

Somewhere in the universeIn Grandma's basement....$TSLQ is rejoicing screaming "I told you so....." from its high of $50

Fixed that for you.

 

[Electroman]

I'm amazed that Tesla gets their hands on even 50 packs per week. Not when companies like EV West, Gruber Motors, etc. will buy up every pack they can get their hands on (these guys scour all the Copart, etc. auctions and buy anything total'd with an intact pack) for EV conversions, etc.

Would there not be some rejections during pack or cell manufacturing? perhaps 1% rejected due to defects? That 1% I would think itself would be a good number close to what 30 packs a days?

 

[woodisgood]

I thought I listened to the shareholder's meeting pretty closely, but I must have missed the part where they called off the split.

 

[Mengy]

$882 per share right now, Starfox must be yelling at the ceiling!

 

[MP3Mike]

I thought I listened to the shareholder's meeting pretty closely, but I must have missed the part where they called off the split.

Nope, they just haven't announced an official result for the vote to authorize more shares and the board hasn't announced that the split still on with details. Both could potentially be off the table. (Well it is highly unlikely that the shares aren't authorized.)

Nothing is official until the SEC documents are filed.

In 2021 it took them a week to announce the results, though I thought they mentioned it would be announced within 3 days this time. (Vote 10/7/21, 8-K filed 10/13/2021.)

 

[bkp_duke]

Would there not be some rejections during pack or cell manufacturing? perhaps 1% rejected due to defects? That 1% I would think itself would be a good number close to what 30 packs a days?

Happens at the cell level, rarely at the pack level. Cells just get recycled directly (Elon's said this) at GF Nevada.

1% is far too high at least on the 2170 pack process. More like 0.01% at the pack level for new packs, and those are nearly universally picked up during in-house testing.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Glorious day for those in the options thread. MM's to the rescue!

Taking a step back, today really illustrates my near term thesis that we're headed to ATH real soon(like now-ish). The floor is rising dramatically as we creep toward all these earnings that grow more certain by the day.

Folks in the other thread are feverishly selling out spreads at $780/680 without a care in the world. That's too much free premium to be giving away. It's not sustainable for the options market.

Plus we're now "up", relative to the recent past, so folks selling covered calls are safer too. As illustrated beautifully today.

The options market dictates we cannot stay in this 800-1000 middle ground.

How anyone could be selling calls with a split coming up is beyond me. We, along with Wall St, are all expecting the same 3 week window as last time. What if Tesla shortens that to two weeks? Or even a week? There are no rules against that.

Add in to that, a credit rating upgrade that could happen at any time along with Tesla at fully operation again. Plus we're already halfway through the quarter. There's a legit chance Tesla breaks 400k for Q3 and I think a very likely chance that Tesla beats the current estimates of 370k.

Just an idiotic thing to be doing to me. I may get annoyed and frustrated at the weekly and monthly trading action of TSLA but there's no denying that when this thing rips, it rips hard and I feel no sympathy for anyone caught on the other side of it that's selling calls.

$882 per share right now, Starfox must be yelling at the ceiling!

As I mentioned throughout the week, I'm in no way surprised by the outcome of this week. The week before the stock split detail get announced and the sharedholders meeting + a very lopsided Call to Put ratio? Yeah that's a ripe condition for a lot of shenanigans. I view today as Wall St's attempt to get as many shares as possible before the SEC stock detail filing that we all know is going to come sometime before the market opens on Monday.

 

[wtlloyd]

Wow, the battle for $880 was fierce! 4th limit buy of my day triggered, but everybody runs out of juice eventually and smiles will turn upside down.

 

[Snerruc]

Changing the subject, it looks like Tesla has saturated the US market for S Plaids. Today I have 12 available for immediate delivery and 3-7 weeks for a special order. Doesn’t seem to make a difference how I option it.