Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

Cheer up y'all.....at least $TSLA is up 15 of the last 18 trading sessions (including today)

Yup today sucks... but we are literally where we started last Friday. We will get a bump when the 8k is filed and the split is formally announced... so not really worried about today.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

- Sell the news
- Unwinding of speculative positions
- MM manipulation
- Renewed TWTR overhang
- Elon filling his TWTR war chest

It could be one, some or even all of the above.

As for the TWTR overhang, that one is on Gary! He started it with his question yesterday.

 

[henchman24]

- Sell the news
- MM manipulation
- Renewed TWTR overhang
- Elon filling his TWTR war chest
- Unwinding of speculative positions

It could be one, some or even all of the above. As for TWTR, that one is on Gary. He started it with his question yesterday.

Gary has puts confirmed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think because this just came out too: China suspends cooperation with US on range of issues, sanctions Pelosi over Taiwan trip
-Updated 7:43 AM ET, Fri August 5, 2022

Nah, the macro dip began precisely when the Jobs Report was released at 08:30 ET

And shortzes and hedgies jumped on the chance to pound TSLA below Max Pain. Done and dusted, now off to the Hamptons for (yet) another weekend of coke and hoes...

Not /s.

 

[StealthP3D]

A lot has happened with both battery chemistry and pack cooling / architecture since the original Model S. If anything, those packs lasting up to 15 years is a testament on how good Tesla's starting point was.

I would expect the 2170-based packs to last longer, with better chemistry and cooling.


Plus, frankly, a lot of these packs get recycled not because of pack failure, but simply because the car gets into an accident and is totaled due to "cost to repair" reasons, not anything to do with pack health.

In general, I would expect the packs from different periods with different chemistries to last roughly the same. That's because Tesla analyzes the early data from different packs and adjusts the maximum and minimum voltages (as well as the maximum charging and discharging speed) such that the pack will have the desired lifespan characteristics. If they push this too far, they risk excessive warranty costs and unhappy customers, if they don't push it far enough, they leave a lot of range and performance on the table.

 

[wipster]

Gary has puts confirmed.

I think you meant "Gary is a putz confirmed."

 

[henchman24]

I think you meant "Gary is a putz confirmed."

I'm pretty sure that was confirmed with the Bitcoin fiasco.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sure might as well make it a 10% down day.

A 900 billion dollar market cap stock going down 7% on zero news. Sure

 

[petit_bateau]

Yes, Elon's description of possible future plans for Twitter during the 2022 AGM is his hope of what Paypal could have been, before he was ousted. I recall hearing Elon telling this story on multiple occasions in varying amount of detail.

I see many on Twitter are concerned that today's $60 drop could be Elon selling more shares to have fund to buy $TWTR given his comments last night, and afraid that we can see further drop. I doubt it because the volume is normal.

Here it one clip from a 2008 interview - - 26 seconds in.

Elon -
I want to do something more on the internet and it seemed to me that they hadn't been all that much innovation in the financial sector
and given that money is kind of a just an entry in a database and it was low bandwidth he said it didn't require some big infrastructure upgrade to the Internet it seemed it should lend itself to innovation

so try to think of what could be you know what were something compelling it could be done I thought well if we can combine all all types of financial services in one so you have like the mortgages or like basically all your your entire financial relationship seamlessly integrated together in one place online that would be cool

and then there was a little feature that just seemed like an obvious feature which was ability to transfer money from one person to another but by entering unique identifiers like a email address

A interview with Max Chafkin. From the 2008 Inc. 5000 conference.

Spoiler: Entire transcript

Max: I was hoping you could sort of share with us kind of what
your vision was from the beginning?

Elon: Well it certainly evolved over time initially the eyesomething more on the internet
well after slings up

I want to do something more on the internet and it
seemed to me that they hadn't been all that much innovation in the financial
sector

and given that money is kind of a just an entry in a database and it was
low bandwidth he said it wouldn't didn't require some big infrastructure upgrade
to the Internet it seemed it should lend itself to innovation so try to think of
what could be you know what were something compelling it could be done

and I thought well if we can combine all all types of financial services in one
so you have like the mortgages or like basically all your your entire financial
relationship seamlessly integrated together in one place online that would be cool

and then there was a little feature that just seemed like an obvious
feature which was ability to transfer money from one person to another but by
entering unique identifiers like a email address there was like this is sort of a little feature

but then whenever we demonstrate the product people wouldn't
get excited about the consolidated financial services but they would get
excited about emailing money so he's sort of focusing on our energy on that
and that really ended up being the big driver of growth

right so it sort of went from a super bank I think that's what the media call yeah like a super
financial services thing yeah - to really narrowly focusing on email payments

so although I should point out that actually a lot of people aren't
aware that a lot of success of PayPal is due to the underlying financial services
that are there such as the money market fund which is one of the highest
yielding in fact I think the highest yielding in the country

and the fact
that there's a PayPal debit card that's which operates off the MasterCard system
so you can you have it you can buy things you know buy things in the real
world and get cash from an ATM that directly taps into your in to PayPal
account those are actually very important to the papers model right sue

It is obvious that at some point there will need to be a Tesla Finance division. Let's call it Tesla Bank perhaps. After all Tesla will in time be providing significant touchpoints with a lot of the world's economically active population :
- 20m of ~80m vehicles per year to the world, 25% market share;
- maybe 15% market share of the world's energy storage;
- maybe 10% market share of the world's charger network;
- whatever % of the world's personal robot share; and
- partnering ~80%+ of the world's satellite communications icw Starlink, likely using vehicles in some sort of nodal sense in time; and
- loads of other relevant stuff in the compute / mobility / communicate / energy spaces.

Given all this there is not obviously a great deal of benefit in terms of accelerating the mission by buying Twitter, that only (max) serves maybe 400m users (of 8bn people in world), perhaps 5% of the global population. It certainly seems possible to do pretty much everything organically from within Tesla if one chooses to do so. Certainly no reason to overpay.

 

[bkp_duke]

In general, I would expect the packs from different periods with different chemistries to last roughly the same. That's because Tesla analyzes the early data from different packs and adjusts the maximum and minimum voltages (as well as the maximum charging and discharging speed) such that the pack will have the desired lifespan characteristics. If they push this too far, they risk excessive warranty costs and unhappy customers, if they don't push it far enough, they leave a lot of range and performance on the table.

I've had these packs apart, and it's pretty well-known in the salvage groups, that the packs from the past 5-7 years or so are on a much better "initial drop in range and power" curve than the first 5 years of packs made 10-12 years ago.

Yes, Tesla has great BMS software that adjusts electrical load to prolong pack life, but there have been some pretty substantial chemistry changes and pack cooling changes over the years as well. Newer packs are simply of higher initial quality and have better longevity than the older ones.

Case in point - early 85 kwh packs had charging limitations put on them when degradation was seen to be beyond desired, in order to extend longevity. Packs made from 2016 and on or so (same 18650 form factor for the cells but improved chemistries and pack cooling) did not have those limitations put on them at the same point in their life cycle.

The early 2170 packs are just now hitting that point, and appear to be holding up much better at the 5 year point.

 

[henchman24]

Sure might as well make it a 10% down day.

A 900 billion dollar market cap stock going down 7% on zero news. Sure

I wouldn't say zero news... there was macro news, a bunch of Tesla news, and a spattering of Twitter news. The reaction is pretty dumb, but there was news.

 

[EVMeister]

Sure might as well make it a 10% down day.

A 900 billion dollar market cap stock going down 7% on zero news. Sure

Not zero news so much as positive news.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

- Sell the news
- Unwinding of speculative positions
- MM manipulation
- Renewed TWTR overhang
- Elon filling his TWTR war chest

It could be one, some or even all of the above. As for the TWTR overhang, that one is on Gary! He started it with his question yesterday.

Careful there, the last time I suggested that a sharp sudden move down without any obvious reason why was caused by Elon selling shares, I was threatened with a ban.

This isn't me telling a joke, I know you're a mod.

 

[Zero CO2]

Sure might as well make it a 10% down day.

A 900 billion dollar market cap stock going down 7% on zero news. Sure

no actually a lot of positive news ... not the least of which was elon reaffirming production targets and new factory plans ...

i am beginning to get grumpy too

 

[henchman24]

I haven't bought a weekly call in a very long time... seems like that will change today.


(so when the stock tanks next week, we know who to blame....)

 

[betstarship]

rawr rawr rawr TSLA TSLA TSLA rawr rawr rawr

 

[elasalle]

dumb antics,
will power hour be time to cover/stop playing games before weekend?

+ Fair Warning MMs - if this continues next week .. I might need to take them recently added piggy bank shares and convert back to LEAPS.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Picked up 50 chairs at $865 just so i can say i have 150 more chairs after the split

 

[bkp_duke]

I haven't bought a weekly call in a very long time... seems like that will change today.


(so when the stock tanks next week, we know who to blame....)

I'm seriously considering about 10 x Jun 2024 900 LEAPS. The return on investment in just a few months has a high odds of being 2-3X.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This def smells like some big holder selling...all other mega caps down >2% and here we are down <7%