TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
In what way? If anything China represents the electrification effort and the US is desperately holding onto oil & gas.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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- elon is an ass
In what way? If anything China represents the electrification effort and the US is desperately holding onto oil & gas.
Saul Geller has it right. Let me rephrase for those who can't or won't understand: The blackout window for insider trading extends from 15 days before the end of a reporting period (i.e., quarterly results)) and runs until 2 days after the reporting of said results. Also, to clarify, a 10b5-1 plan does not allow an insider to sell at any time they wish. It allows for the sale of stock at pre-determined dates.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I considered it, but it seems to me that from Tesla's perspective to have all the disadvantages of the US north-east (which is a loose term that can go quite far south) with none of the advantages. However much I personally might find Canada attractive (and I do) it doesn't seem as good a choice for Tesla at this stage. I'd previously mentally pencilled out Mexico myself for reasons of political sensitivity, but if Mexico were to provide a way to test out the Brazil market (as well as access NAFTA) then I guess it as as good a contender as Japan and South Korea.
This seemed a good summary of the global market sizes, helpfully organised by trade bloc which is the real issue here:
"Brazil is also the sixth-largest automobile market in the world with almost 2.8mn newly registered cars in 2019, following China with 21mn, the US with almost 17mn, the EU with 15mn, Japan with 4.3mn and India with almost 3mn new car registrations. "
Brazil's Automotive Sector Poised for Strong Growth
Key factors for the growth of the automotive sector in Brazil has been the increasing consumer and business confidence, combined with the relatively low borrowing costs
info.ceicdata.com
Mercosur as a whole is 3.3m vehicles/year.
"Mercosur is a market of approximately 270 million people, where 3.3 million new cars were sold last year. The EU exported 73,000 cars to the region in 2018, representing 2.2% of the total market. By contrast, some 234,000 cars were imported into Mercosur from other countries, accounting for almost 8% of the market."
Auto makers welcome conclusion of EU-Mercosur trade deal
The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) welcomes the conclusion of negotiations on a free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, the South American trade bloc.
www.acea.auto
By contrast Canada itself is only 1.7m/yr in size,
Topic: Automotive industry in Canada
Find the most relevant and recent facts about the automotive industry in Canada.
www.statista.com
Within Tesla they will have a much better handle on whether Optimus may be viable and if so how fast. That has got to greatly influence the entire factory template(s) as the availability of a suitable workforce is a key criteria. Let's hope they don't repeat the flufferbot saga.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That's how I'd characterize his entire approach to the Twitter deal from the beginning.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
What is the political and crime situation like in Brazil these days? I haven't followed it. The GM division I used to work at had a plant in Brazil; one of my coworkers in manufacturing engineering went there and was mugged, Violence and crime was pretty universal, with most of those in the middle class, and nearly all foreigners, living in well guarded, gated communities. IIRC kidnapping of foreigners was also an issue. That was nearly 30 years ago so probably none of that applies any longer-I'd certainly hope not.@unk45 : Re Brazil workforce that is interesting, especially as it differs from my personal observation. I am used to visiting clients in Brazil, at their factories that range from mid-tech to high-tech. My observation has been that whilst there is a lot of competition for skilled workforce, so too is there sufficiency of supply coming through the system. I'm also used to Brazilian made vehicles all over Mercosur. In Mercosur at present I cannot envisage anyone putting an automotive factory in Argentina until they have proved they can run a stable political and economic system for at least a decade (which is to say, never). Which really only leaves Brazil as a viable choice. In my opinion there is a sufficient market to absorb two lines of product (a 3 and a Y line) which gives time for the 2/Z, and the van products to become available, both of which would be sufficient to take a Brazil-based factory to 2m/yr or so.
@MP3Mike : However you make a very valid point re the unproven nature of the Brazil market wrt Tesla. There is no Tesla Supercharger network or sales & service network in Brazil.
Given this, if Tesla are seeking focus then the obvious choices are either USA, EU, or China. However if Tesla are seeking some form of further diversification at this stage then there are only three other countries that meet the tests of being a proven & sufficient market* with existing Tesla networks: Mexico, South Korea, Japan. So really that gives Tesla six candidate areas to choose from depending on how Tesla prioritises the various factors in their selection mix. I am unsure of the extent to which Mexico has any better access into Mercosur though, as a way of testing/developing the Brazil market - didn't the 2002 FTA process run into quicksand ? Can anyone comment knowledgeably on that ?
Which is to say that a lot of people will be taking a keen interest in the movements of Tesla senior management team over the next six months.
View attachment 837380
* I exclude Australia due to it probably being an insufficient market, and Turkey is a basket case right now under the madness of Erdogan (besides which, if you zoom in on the red dots in Turkey, they turn a disappointing grey).
Find Us | Tesla
Use the interactive Find Us map to locate Tesla charging stations, service centers, galleries and stores on the go.www.tesla.com
Stating the obvious and ending with “a tall order” is completely useless. Obviously is hard, otherwise someone would have done it already.
Maybe because they think the benefits of another future split in a couple years outweigh the oddball strike prices? Not that it wouldn't also be possible with a 5:1 split, but the splits compound quickly.
I agree with him on this. I was updating my spreadsheet last night to model out the growth of 12 factories to achieve 20 million production by EoY 2030 and it does look quite foreboding. That's only 8 1/2 years to build and ramp 8 more Giga's:
2023 - start building 2 new Giga's
2025 - start building 2 new Giga's
2026 - start building 2 new Giga's
2027 - start building 2 new Giga's
I agree, tall order. Not out of the question though, just very difficult and ambitious.
ALSO, it's important to keep in mind that during these 8.5 years:
- Tesla Energy will continue it's exponential ramp
- FSD will release Level 5
- Robotaxi's will become a thing
- Tesla Bot will enter production
I don't understand this at all over the years. What's the end game for oil and gas if the world just goes to hell and they rake in the profits? Rationally, what's the long-term strategy for saving their lives over the rest of the human population that's combating against oil & gas and trying to transition to renewables?
Elon‘s vision for X.com, which turned into PayPal, was never realized. X.com was supposed to upend retail banking in a big way. Meaning deposits, loans, online and physical payments and other assorted financial products.
Elon‘s statements about Twitter (not only at the shareholder meeting) indicates he sees Twitter as a platform to roll out all those X.com services he was never able to bring to fruition before.
So to the extent that Elon gets into loans, it’ll be as a separate company, under the X.com brand. And unfortunately, there’s no way to buy into that vision at this point (unless you’ve got $1B to co-invest) since he’ll be taking Twitter private.
I would love to read the sales pitch he has been making to possible Twitter co-investors … anyone know if there’s been leaked info about this?
They do not make the old packs anymore, so you will get refurbished packs.
At the same time raw material scaling needs to be solved and/or fsd needs to be solved. There's not enough demand for 20M cars with an asp of 50k unless fsd is solved or asp drop big time through 4680/or smaller compact car. Lots have to go right for that 20M goal besides just building the factories.
Also if optimus is a thing, that need factories too.
larmor
Active Member
Maybe not such a tall order. One of the takeaway points from battery day was the decreased footprint needed for battery production on scale.
From my conservative ex-coworkers (who have young kids BTW) : "If it isn't going to happen within thirty years, I don't care."
Indonesia is a fat resource of high quality battery materials, nickel in particular. They have sent high-level Government officials to confer with Elon personally, but have made clear they will not accept mere enrichment and export of resources. They want Tesla. They want manufacturing investment and of course that would leverage their export income far beyond base resource marketing. China is making investments across the globe, Africa and South America in particular. Would there be reason for an argument that the value of Indonesia's resources would tilt investment decisions in their favor? That whoever is able to secure a relationship early in this global shift in energy production will be best positioned to reap the rewards of resource development in that region?I considered it, but it seems to me that from Tesla's perspective to have all the disadvantages of the US north-east (which is a loose term that can go quite far south) with none of the advantages. However much I personally might find Canada attractive (and I do) it doesn't seem as good a choice for Tesla at this stage. I'd previously mentally pencilled out Mexico myself for reasons of political sensitivity, but if Mexico were to provide a way to test out the Brazil market (as well as access NAFTA) then I guess it as as good a contender as Japan and South Korea.
This seemed a good summary of the global market sizes, helpfully organised by trade bloc which is the real issue here:
"Brazil is also the sixth-largest automobile market in the world with almost 2.8mn newly registered cars in 2019, following China with 21mn, the US with almost 17mn, the EU with 15mn, Japan with 4.3mn and India with almost 3mn new car registrations. "
Brazil's Automotive Sector Poised for Strong Growth
Key factors for the growth of the automotive sector in Brazil has been the increasing consumer and business confidence, combined with the relatively low borrowing costs
Mercosur as a whole is 3.3m vehicles/year.
"Mercosur is a market of approximately 270 million people, where 3.3 million new cars were sold last year. The EU exported 73,000 cars to the region in 2018, representing 2.2% of the total market. By contrast, some 234,000 cars were imported into Mercosur from other countries, accounting for almost 8% of the market."
Auto makers welcome conclusion of EU-Mercosur trade deal
The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) welcomes the conclusion of negotiations on a free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, the South American trade bloc.
By contrast Canada itself is only 1.7m/yr in size,
Topic: Automotive industry in Canada
Find the most relevant and recent facts about the automotive industry in Canada.
Within Tesla they will have a much better handle on whether Optimus may be viable and if so how fast. That has got to greatly influence the entire factory template(s) as the availability of a suitable workforce is a key criteria. Let's hope they don't repeat the flufferbot saga.
There was a bunch of reporting on this around 6 May, mostly coming from NYT, updated article here: Inside Elon Musk’s Big Plans for Twitter
The X.com style plans Elon referred to at the shareholder meetings appear more expansive than what was reported previously.
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