Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

I dunno, I think we have to attribute some of our gains to FUDsters, CNBC, TSLAQ and the like. At least those of us who bought or added to our positions in 2017-2019. Basically, any shares purchased at prices lower than the known facts would dictate need to attribute some of that low price to FUDsters. And, to remain consistent, we have to credit Elon with his many instances of sticking his foot in his mouth and even his recent large sales of shares that resulted in buying opportunities. Because profit is the difference between your buy and sell prices.

Of course, if Elon were not such a revolutionary industrialist, the FUD wouldn't have existed anyway. So maybe we can say that Elon's awesomeness is responsible for the rise of Tesla FUDsters and therefore all of our TSLA gains can be attributed to him anyway. But Elon couldn't have done it alone, so let's not forget how awesome the various teams at Tesla are, including the rest of management. It's obvious there is some magic going on behind the curtain that contributes in a primary way to the awesome performance we have seen, and continue to see, through some very trying times with COVID supply chain challenges and the like.

Tesla has most of its opportunity ahead of itself still. In fact, Irwin Jacobs and his small team of brainiacs made me more dollars, on a smaller investment, in only 18 months than TSLA has made for me in the last 4 years. It went 36x. And that was over 20 years ago when a dollar was worth a lot more than it is now. I find it interesting that prominent and incessant FUD also played a major role in my gains involving another great disrupter that was much quieter and less flamboyant than Elon Musk. The work they did was revolutionary in terms of wireless data and is heavily utilized in everything from WiFi to cellphones in order to cram as much data as possible into the finite resource of radio spectrum. The remaining opportunity for TSLA, in multiple sectors, dwarfs that of Qualcomm. It just requires continued execution. Time is the magic ingredient and that's why it's important to have Elon at the helm making deadlines that are far too short and forcing things along.

People who are unwilling or unable to recognize the greatness of Elon's achievements like to call those that do, cultists. The cult of Elon or the cult of Tesla. Detractors said exactly the same thing about Irwin Jacobs and Qualcomm. But that is only because they are blind to the reality right before their eyes. It would only be cult-like behavior if we were overly impressed with something that was ordinary or, alternatively, something that was not even real. I'm one of the last persons to become involved with cult like behavior, that is, believing strongly in something without strong supporting evidence.

Cults have a set of beliefs that is supported by nothing more than faith. Faith is believing in something without enough supporting evidence to sustain those beliefs without faith. Elon and Tesla have amply demonstrated so much superiority in terms of manufacturing prowess and design and engineering exceptionalism, compared to legacy auto, that it appears cult-like to those who are unwilling or unable to see how extraordinary Tesla's achievements really are. They ascribe the "high" stock price to cult-like buying behavior, apparently unable to process the astounding profit margins in a rational manner. To these people, TSLA will always be overpriced and TSLA investors will always be cultists. Because they cannot imagine that anything could ever be extraordinary. That anything could ever be exceptional. That the status quo would not always be the status quo.

I'm fully aware that past exceptionalism does not guarantee future exceptionalism. But I also know that Tesla has a huge head start in industries that do not lend themselves to rapid change. Tesla also continues to attract some of the best and brightest minds on the planet. Common sense should inform which horse to bet on. But it has long been known that common sense is not always so common. The true cultists are those who claim Elon Musk is not extraordinary, that Tesla cannot manufacture cars more efficiently than the real automotive experts like GM, Ford, Toyota, VW and BMW, and that Tesla is not in the lead in autonomy. Because the facts do not support that set of beliefs. It is truly an anti-Tesla, anti-Elon Musk cult. I don't join cults, I take advantage of them. I've made a lot of money by betting against cults and suggest that everyone do the same. Because cults are not based upon reality, that's what makes them a cult. Just make sure the timeframe of your bet is long enough to overcome the natural noise and volatility of the markets.

This should be a sticky post for all that have trouble getting Tesla and those who moan when TSLA drops 8 bucks.

 

[StealthP3D]

Just wanted to drop a heads up to some of you. As one of the chumps (savvy investors?) who bought TSLA after the "funding secured" tweet 4 years ago, I received a notice from my broker today about submitting a claim. It was a pretty easy process to submit everything online (including redacting the necessary documents, it took me about 20 minutes). I still hold those sub-$80 cost basis shares, so it's pretty much bonus money for me.

Deadline is September 17 if you're eligible.

Information here for those eligible or just curious: https://www.secvteslafairfund.com.

It'll be interesting to see how much of my eligible claim ultimately gets paid -- you never get 100 cents on the dollar in these things.

My first buy missed the narrow window by a day. But for those who may have bought on the "Funding Secured" tweet, it's worthwhile to check if you are eligible to file a claim. Some things to be aware of:

This will not cost Tesla anything if you get a cash refund because the settlement is a fixed amount and gets divided up in proportion to the valid claims submitted.

If you submit a valid claim, not only will you get cash back, but it will reduce the amount paid to TSLA short-sellers who covered on the "funding secured" tweet. That's a worthy goal even your share purchase was so small as to not amount to a huge amount of money.

It looks to me like the claim submitting rules are set up to make people think you had to lose money to have a valid claim. That is not the case at all. I believe everyone who bought during the narrow window (between 12:48:16 p.m. EDT on August 7, 2018 and 4:00 p.m. EDT on August 8, 2018) is entitled to a refund if it's more than $10 (even if you later sold at a profit). Basically, the assumption is that everyone who bought during this window over-paid whether it was longs buying or shorts covering.

Apply any cash refunds to TSLA purchases and watch your money grow over time! Or, treat yourself and your date to a nice meal or drinks out, compliments of TSLAQ!

 

[mongo]

My first buy missed the narrow window by a day. But for those who may have bought on the "Funding Secured" tweet, it's worthwhile to check if you are eligible to file a claim. Some things to be aware of:

This will not cost Tesla anything if you get a cash refund because the settlement is a fixed amount and gets divided up in proportion to the valid claims submitted.

If you submit a valid claim, not only will you get cash back, but it will reduce the amount paid to TSLA short-sellers who covered on the "funding secured" tweet. That's a worthy goal even your share purchase was so small as to not amount to a huge amount of money.

It looks to me like the claim submitting rules are set up to make people think you had to lose money to have a valid claim. That is not the case at all. I believe everyone who bought during the narrow window (between 12:48:16 p.m. EDT on August 7, 2018 and 4:00 p.m. EDT on August 8, 2018) is entitled to a refund if it's more than $10 (even if you later sold at a profit). Basically, the assumption is that everyone who bought during this window over-paid whether it was longs buying or shorts covering.

Apply any cash refunds to TSLA purchases and watch your money grow over time! Or, treat yourself and your date to a nice meal or drinks out, compliments of TSLAQ!

Loss calculation from Plan of Allocation https://www.secvteslafairfund.com/Important-Documents

For Securities purchased or acquired during the Relevant Period, the Recognized Loss per Share is:

A. the purchase/acquisition price minus the greater of i) the sale price, or ii) $356.67, the share price just prior to the false and misleading statements, if the share was subsequently sold during the Relevant Period;

B. the purchase/acquisition price minus $356.67, if the share was held at the end of the Relevant Period; and

C. the purchase/acquisition price minus $356.67, if the share was purchased to close a short position opened before the Relevant Period.

If the Recognized Loss per Share calculates to a negative number, reflecting a gain, the Recognized Loss per Share on such shares will be $0.00.

All prices mentioned in the calculations exclude all taxes, fees and commissions.

Purchases and sales shall be deemed to have occurred on the “contract” or “trade” date as opposed to the “settlement” or “payment” date.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

…….snip……the rumor of a new Gigafactory in Canady, Ontario makes a lot of sense to me. A location in between the Gigafactory in Buffalo, Toronto and Detroit would be attractive for experienced workers and could be cleverly placed from a logistic standpoint. From a marketing standpoint it makes Tesla a more attractive brand in Canada. Canada further has a free trade agreement with the US:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Interesting location, and “somewhat close” to the greater Sudbury area and Vale’s nickel mines. Might be great synergy there.

Vale Canada - Wikipedia

Vale confirms supply deal with Tesla for low-carbon nickel

 

[ZsoZso]

NASDAQ will announce Short Interest as of July 30, 2022 after the close of trading tomorrow. It will be interesting to see what change in SI has occured since the "pre-announcement" of the 3:1 split via dividend (intent of which was announced by Tesla way back in March)

Tesla 8-K "Share Dividend" | (Mar 28, 2022)​

Obviously, the smarter cheats will have been covering their naked shortzes sooner rather than later...

Excuse my skepticism, but IMHO the phrase "smart TSLA short" is an oxymoron.
Yes, it has been public information for a while that Tesla is planning a 3:1 split. However, there has been clear signs of downward manipulation a lot of times in this time period, including last Friday, just after the confirmation that the shares have been approved for the split so it became imminent although without confirmed dates as of Friday trading hours. I do not believe that those who have the means to perform naked shorting are easily frightened and scared away until the last minute when they must cover. Now, they know the dates. I can imagine that this morning's run-up may have been helped by some such short covering, but I do not assume the deck is all cleared and no more of these fake shares are floating around the market at this point. They still have 9 calendar days / 7 trading days until the 17th when the records need to be pristine. I expect them to be lazy enough to leave some for the last days, i.e. early next week. Which still leaves some time to bring the SP back down for the 19th Friday monthly option expiry date. So if I were to bet, I would say next Monday or Tuesday (15th and 16th) to be the peak SP when covering has the largest lifting power, followed by a strong push-down on Thursday and Friday (18th and 19th) using fresh naked shorting.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Gets my vote for the biggest BEV fail of the year.

If course, it was the Bolt last year.

I don’t know. I’m stickin with Mazda. Tough act to beat.

 

[StealthP3D]

Loss calculation from Plan of Allocation https://www.secvteslafairfund.com/Important-Documents

Exactly! That's why I said the language is designed to make people think they cannot file a claim if they later sold for a gain. The last statement saying,

"If the Recognized Loss per Share calculates to a negative number, reflecting a gain, the Recognized Loss per Share on such shares will be $0.00"

doesn't really apply to anyone except for people who had less loss than they would have due to Elon's tweet (by covering during the 1 1/2-day relevant period). In almost all cases, they are referring to "less loss" as a "gain". None of this means if you sold after the relevant period with a large gain that you don't have a recognized loss. Recognized loss is distinct from actual loss.

What this means is if you purchased during the relevant period, and held it beyond the relevant period, you have a recognized loss. There may be a tiny sliver of edge cases that fall outside this rule because they got too low of a price during the relevant period but I think that's unlikely. Put more accurately, if you bought during the relevant period for more than $356.67 and didn't sell during the same 1 1/2-day period, you have a recognized loss.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Lots of Twits debating the IRA. I’m sure Rob Muerer is busily flow-charting the bill's language. I'm waiting for his assessment.

And done

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

CPCA number came in at 28k for July.

Will be interesting to see the production number though. Not sure if anyone was paying attention to the ports or log at Shanghai to see how many cars were essentially on the lot and not counted towards the retail/export number

 

[The Accountant]

CPCA number came in at 28k for July.

Will be interesting to see the production number though. Not sure if anyone was paying attention to the ports or log at Shanghai to see how many cars were essentially on the lot and not counted towards the retail/export number

My estimate is that there were about 5k vehicles at the Luchao Port and the Shanghai logistics lot at July 31, that would not have counted as wholesale deliveries. So perhaps we will see about 33k for July production.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Moneyball on Twitter: "Tesla MIC Jul Wholesale: 28,217 Retail: 8,461 Export: 19.756 (CPCA) https://t.co/1u1gxO23Wx" / Twitter

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "NEWS: Tesla China delivered 28,217 cars In July. Expectation were about 30k. Reminder: Giga Shanghai was completely shut down for upgrades from July 1-4, Model Y line shut down from July 1-18 and Model 3 line shut down from July 18 - Aug 8th. Weekly output will reach new highs." / Twitter​

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "The media (and some uniformed analysts) will likely spin this into a negative saying TESLA SALES DOWN 64% IN CHINA IN JULY, but the factory was shut down for major upgrades that will massively boost capacity and output. Just focus on the bigger picture." / Twitter​

Tesla's Giga Shanghai Line Upgrades are Insane! | Tesla Economist

 

[Ogre]

I don’t know. I’m stickin with Mazda. Tough act to beat.

They should get some credit for limiting the scope of their fail though right?

 

[The Accountant]

So do we have any accountants (ie @The Accountant) in the audience?

On one hand we have the new probable 1% buyback tax in the wings.

On the other hand we have the Deferred Tax Benefit.

Who wins?

In my opinion, the Tesla Deferred Tax Asset not yet recognized is a much larger benefit than the negative impact of the 1% buyback tax.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Just wanted to drop a heads up to some of you. As one of the chumps (savvy investors?) who bought TSLA after the "funding secured" tweet 4 years ago, I received a notice from my broker today about submitting a claim. It was a pretty easy process to submit everything online (including redacting the necessary documents, it took me about 20 minutes). I still hold those sub-$80 cost basis shares, so it's pretty much bonus money for me.

Deadline is September 17 if you're eligible.

Information here for those eligible or just curious: https://www.secvteslafairfund.com.

It'll be interesting to see how much of my eligible claim ultimately gets paid -- you never get 100 cents on the dollar in these things.

Thanks for bringing this up again (my June 4 post on the subject here). Which broker notified you? Mine (E*Trade) hasn't bothered.

 

[CLK350]

Even before robotaxis and Hertz like rentals: contactless car sharing platform for apartments, hotels and businesses - first hotel implementation a big success - $30/ hour easy rental from pilot hotel in Australia .." guests also love the drive/acceleration of the Model 3 and the giant touch screen. “Interestingly, they all feel really safe in the Tesla due to the additional cameras, sensors and guidance systems on the vehicles."

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-ideas/luxury/gold-coast-mans-genius-30-tesla-move-for-hotel-guests/news-story/1c6ac5db33501c6ba33309fecd041c8b

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm getting the feeling looking at our 3 month chart that we're gonna bounce off $1000 this week. The pattern(and stank in the air) just looks like we're ready to test, but not close above.

Obviously need good to great CPI Wednesday, but I think that's fairly likely.

HoDLing my single 8/12 $900c like it's the one ring to rule them all. THE PRECIOUS!

 

[Tim S]

Thanks for bringing this up again (my June 4 post on the subject here). Which broker notified you? Mine (E*Trade) hasn't bothered.

I was notified by ETrade on August 5th. Got this email at 8:09 AM ET (I haven't read the details in the link yet):

 

[dhanson865]

And done

The way Rob reads it, you have to have the tax liability to take the full credit.

I don't make enough in a normal year to get the full credit so I'll have to synchronize and sell something that triggers long term capital gains tax of the desired amount in the correct year.

With the insane wait times on Tesla orders for a new car might require I actually think ahead or might leave me with a situation where I trigger the capital gains and then don't buy in that year and then have to try the cap gains trigger with additional sales in the next year.

I guess since I don't have an order in place yet and the bill isn't a law yet I should be spitballing a 2023 purchase and wait to sell anything until I'm exactly sure how the law works and I have a delivery confirmation.

 

[insaneoctane]

Was this ETF launched to give $TSLQ a chance to hedge?
View attachment 838290

I'm looking into TSLL because as an ETF, I may finally be able to move some 401K money into Tesla. Unfortunately my plan specifically disallows investment in individual stocks. Hopefully I have access to this ETF. I am curious what the expense ratio is going to be though!

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Exactly! That's why I said the language is designed to make people think they cannot file a claim if they later sold for a gain. The last statement saying,

"If the Recognized Loss per Share calculates to a negative number, reflecting a gain, the Recognized Loss per Share on such shares will be $0.00"

doesn't really apply to anyone except for people who had less loss than they would have due to Elon's tweet (by covering during the 1 1/2-day relevant period). In almost all cases, they are referring to "less loss" as a "gain". None of this means if you sold after the relevant period with a large gain that you don't have a recognized loss. Recognized loss is distinct from actual loss.

What this means is if you purchased during the relevant period, and held it beyond the relevant period, you have a recognized loss. There may be a tiny sliver of edge cases that fall outside this rule because they got too low of a price during the relevant period but I think that's unlikely. Put more accurately, if you bought during the relevant period for more than $356.67 and didn't sell during the same 1 1/2-day period, you have a recognized loss.

What moron of a judge passed this nonsense ?