Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

They can if they have to. But this is only necessary if US demand really falls off a cliff. I don't see it happening.

BTW, I said "again" not to you, but because I clarified the same point to someone else's post several days ago

Can I put it more simply? Demand is not a problem for Tesla.

I do see US demand falling off a cliff for Q4. Absent any price changes, I think a ton of customers will try to put off delivery until Q1. Why not wait and get $7500 off that new Model Y?

I think Tesla doesn't want US sales to fall off a cliff in Q4. So they will raise prices soon in order to incentivize deliveries in Q4.

I don't know how viable it is to do a major increase in exports from the US just to absorb US production for that one quarter.

 

[mickificki]

I do see US demand falling off a cliff for Q4. Absent any price changes, I think a ton of customers will try to put off delivery until Q1. Why not wait and get $7500 off that new Model Y?

I think Tesla doesn't want US sales to fall off a cliff in Q4. So they will raise prices soon in order to incentivize deliveries in Q4.

I don't know how viable it is to do a major increase in exports from the US just to absorb US production for that one quarter.

Because prices might go up by $7500 on 1/1?

 

[elasalle]

I do see US demand falling off a cliff for Q4. Absent any price changes, I think a ton of customers will try to put off delivery until Q1. Why not wait and get $7500 off that new Model Y?

I think Tesla doesn't want US sales to fall off a cliff in Q4. So they will raise prices soon in order to incentivize deliveries in Q4.

I don't know how viable it is to do a major increase in exports from the US just to absorb US production for that one quarter.

A lot of folks with high incomes don't qualify for the credits in the 1st place
by the time battery source is sliced and diced ... who knows what remains for the credit ....

desire for something can be hard to overcome .... credit possibility has been discussed for past year ... but I know few people who bought anyway. Getting the credit was an after thought.

 

[The Accountant]

Tesla sales are surging nationwide.

In Santa Clara county in California, 1 out of 4 vehicles sold is a Tesla. We are not talking EVs only. Of all cars sold in that county, 1 out of 4 is a Tesla.
Started in Santa Clara but coming to a county near you soon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1550052522647293957

 

[Gigapress]

I do see US demand falling off a cliff for Q4. Absent any price changes, I think a ton of customers will try to put off delivery until Q1. Why not wait and get $7500 off that new Model Y?

I think Tesla doesn't want US sales to fall off a cliff in Q4. So they will raise prices soon in order to incentivize deliveries in Q4.

I don't know how viable it is to do a major increase in exports from the US just to absorb US production for that one quarter.

If people cancel delivery and reorder, doesn’t that put them at the back of the line with the current prices? Most people who are receiving delivery in Q4 placed orders when prices were much lower. The giant wave of price hikes came in March.

 

[RubberToe]

Positive news in the media?
I feel a little nauseous.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556984762794999808

And the link to the CNCDA report:

https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/California-Covering-2Q-22_FINAL.pdf

EV share reaches 15%:

And Model Y and Model 3 are the two best selling vehicles, with RAV4 coming in 3rd:



Only remaining question is when will Tesla pass Toyota. California is dark blue, while the US overall is light blue.:

RT

 

[henchman24]

People wanted the stock to move with a beta!

I do see US demand falling off a cliff for Q4. Absent any price changes, I think a ton of customers will try to put off delivery until Q1. Why not wait and get $7500 off that new Model Y?

I think Tesla doesn't want US sales to fall off a cliff in Q4. So they will raise prices soon in order to incentivize deliveries in Q4.

I don't know how viable it is to do a major increase in exports from the US just to absorb US production for that one quarter.

Off a cliff I really doubt... IIRC the LR Y is up ~5k since March and ~8k since last year. For those that have been waiting and locked in on prices... we are looking at breaking even or a small increase. That is before we likely have another increase soon. Some will certainly play the game, but I doubt Tesla has issues selling whatever they can produce right now.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

In Santa Clara county in California, 1 out of 4 vehicles sold is a Tesla. We are not talking EVs only. Of all cars sold in that county, 1 out of 4 is a Tesla.
Started in Santa Clara but coming to a county near you soon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1550052522647293957

But if you look at sales in (insert any EU country during the first month of the quarter) .... they are 'significantly' losing market share, those that think Tesla is dominating is 'dead wrong'....(A so called analyst with three letters in his name)

 

[Usain]

A lot of folks with high incomes don't qualify for the credits in the 1st place
by the time battery source is sliced and diced ... who knows what remains for the credit ....

desire for something can be hard to overcome .... credit possibility has been discussed for past year ... but I know few people who bought anyway. Getting the credit was an after thought.

Your typical Model Y family doesn't have an AGI over $300,000. And possibly saving $7500 is a big incentive to wait.

I personally put off taking delivery of my second Tesla in December just to see if congress would act so I could get the credit. I knew it would mean going to the back of the line and waiting for several more months.

Now with more certainty about getting the tax credit, I think a lot more customers will decide to wait.

 

[Usain]

If people cancel delivery and reorder, doesn’t that put them at the back of the line with the current prices? Most people who are receiving delivery in Q4 placed orders when prices were much lower. The giant wave of price hikes came in March.

If you place an order now, you are projected to still get your car this year. The only exception is the long range Model Y. But for that one the projection starts in January. So you might be asked to take delivery this year.

That's why I think Tesla will raise prices soon. They will want current order holders to know that they should go ahead and take delivery in Q4 because the tax credit won't save them much money by waiting.

 

[woodisgood]

Your typical Model Y family doesn't have an AGI over $300,000. And possibly saving $7500 is a big incentive to wait.

I personally put off taking delivery of my second Tesla in December just to see if congress would act so I could get the credit. I knew it would mean going to the back of the line and waiting for several more months.

Now with more certainty about getting the tax credit, I think a lot more customers will decide to wait.

For every person that waits, there’s someone who doesn’t. For every person that can hold off buying a car, there’s someone who totaled theirs and needs one now. For every person who waits because they qualify for the tax credit, there’s someone who may not. We had the same worries last year, and the effect on Q4 was minimal (though delivery staff had the annoying job of trying to shuffle cars to people who wanted them immediately).

That being said, Tesla does have some levers to pull if needed, and some incentives they could offer may include what is rolling out in China: Half price FSD for existing users, free supercharging, and other perks. Of course there may also be further price increases.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

If people cancel delivery and reorder, doesn’t that put them at the back of the line with the current prices? Most people who are receiving delivery in Q4 placed orders when prices were much lower. The giant wave of price hikes came in March.

I would think it would reset their price to the current price and move them to the back of the line. I ordered my Model Y in Oct and estimated delivery is now mid September (specs in sig). I would assume that Tesla would raise prices another 1-2k just to add a little more incentive for people to take delivery with their locked in price.

@GenSao has posted this graph of the history of Model Y pricing over time:

I know I am not planning on delaying my Model Y order

 

[RubberToe]

But if you look at sales in (insert any EU country during the first month of the quarter) .... they are 'significantly' losing market share, those that think Tesla is dominating is 'dead wrong'....(A so called analyst with three letters in his name)

First month of the quarter is when China is building the flood of export vehicles that start arriving in the second and third month of the quarter in Europe. Not a very closely guarded secret, except to some.

You can ever track the Tesla flotilla in real time right here:

We have moved!

RT

 

[Usain]

For every person that waits, there’s someone who doesn’t. For every person that can hold off buying a car, there’s someone who totaled theirs and needs one now. For every person who waits because they qualify for the tax credit, there’s someone who may not. We had the same worries last year, and the effect on Q4 was minimal (though delivery staff had the annoying job of trying to shuffle cars to people who wanted them immediately).

That being said, Tesla does have some levers to pull if needed, and some incentives they could offer may include what is rolling out in China: Half price FSD for existing users, free supercharging, and other perks. Of course there may also be further price increases.

I mostly agree with you. I just think the effect will be a lot larger than last year because there is greater certainty about the tax credit.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Oh, why not. 25 more. This is rediculous!

 

[brantse]

I'm buying BBBY this morning. Sure, following the WSB gang isn't sound financial advice, but it worked out pretty well for GME.

 

[woodisgood]

I mostly agree with you. I just think the effect will be a lot larger than last year because there is greater certainty about the tax credit.

Possible. Greater certainty also gives Tesla time to prepare with certainty…they’ll still sell every car they produce, even if slightly more production is exported. Personally I don’t think they’ll need to do that, but it’s an option.

 

[MP3Mike]

I mostly agree with you. I just think the effect will be a lot larger than last year because there is greater certainty about the tax credit.

You mean the certainty that nobody currently knows what, if any, vehicles will qualify for the full, half, or no tax credit?

Tesla could totally control this by only making 2022 vehicles for people that have already ordered prior to <x> date. Then they only certify the 2023 models for the tax credit, and those would only go to people that ordered after <x> date.

 

[henchman24]

If you place an order now, you are projected to still get your car this year. The only exception is the long range Model Y. But for that one the projection starts in January. So you might be asked to take delivery this year.

That's why I think Tesla will raise prices soon. They will want current order holders to know that they should go ahead and take delivery in Q4 because the tax credit won't save them much money by waiting.

As the bill is written only the SR+ 3, LR Y and PY (and Austin Y that can't be ordered) even have a chance at applying here as prices are today, and we don't really know on the SR+ 3 either with content issues. So 3s should not really be impacted at all. S/X shouldn't be impacted either. The highest volume Y has a wait until next year with the 20" wheels now and with the 19" we are already into April. There is enough backlog and older orders at lower prices that any shortage there is likely to be easily absorbed.

The one model that could have some issues is the Performance Y. You can basically get one of those tomorrow if you really want. Really though, the margin is just higher there (only real difference in cost is likely wheels and tires) and getting some LR people to upgrade at a discount is likely the move there.

 

[mongo]

In the free advertising department:
DTE (Detroit Michigan power company) is holding a two day EV test drive event. No X though ...
"You’ll have the opportunity to test drive up to two of the hottest EVs on the market from a range of makes and models - a Ford Mustang Mach-E, Ford F-150 Lightning, Polestar 2, Rivian R1T, Tesla Model S, Tesla Model Y, Chevy Bolt, Hummer EV and the Volkswagen ID.4."