Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
In Santa Clara county in California, 1 out of 4 vehicles sold is a Tesla. We are not talking EVs only. Of all cars sold in that county, 1 out of 4 is a Tesla.
Started in Santa Clara but coming to a county near you soon.

When we moved to westlake, a suburb in the DFW area in 2018, there were very few Teslas, and recently in the past year there are so many more Tesla's on the road.
 
I mostly agree with you. I just think the effect will be a lot larger than last year because there is greater certainty about the tax credit.
All this does is move the wealthiest Model Y buyers to the front of the line. Either because they don't care about the price difference from the rebate, or because they won't qualify anyway.

Demand is high across the board, all this will do is reshuffle the demographics for a few months. And likely pull forward an even higher ASP.
 
You mean the certainty that nobody currently knows what, if any, vehicles will qualify for the full, half, or no tax credit?
I've started wondering about that too. Will the rules be written in time to get models certified so consumers can make an informed decision?

I wonder if they could have a waiver that says if the car is assembled in North America, we will let it qualify for 2023. Then the full set of rules goes into effect for 2024. I don't know if that kind of waiver is legal.
 
Since nothing fun is happening, I thought I'd point out an interesting tidbit from this terrible piece of legislation.

Heat pump hot water heaters are eligible for up to $1750 in rebates under the IR Act.

I bought one for about $1400 minus a $500 utility rebate. In warmer climates, these things are an absolute no brainer. They pull in warm air, heat the tank of water, and exhaust cool dry air that can be ducted a short distance.

Effectively I now have an extra air conditioner in my home, cutting off 1/4 of my cooling needs, that also happens to give me free hot water.

Mine is a hybrid, so I can switch to electric in times of high demand, but I almost never use that.

Something to keep an eye on if you maybe already have solar and an EV, but are looking to take the next step. Making these standard in certain areas would be a HUGE energy saver.

Cool article from electrek....

 
Last edited:
I do see US demand falling off a cliff for Q4. Absent any price changes, I think a ton of customers will try to put off delivery until Q1. Why not wait and get $7500 off that new Model Y?

I think Tesla doesn't want US sales to fall off a cliff in Q4. So they will raise prices soon in order to incentivize deliveries in Q4.

I don't know how viable it is to do a major increase in exports from the US just to absorb US production for that one quarter.
there will be a buyer ready to purchase MY and M3 regardless of tax incentive this will not be an issue

as anecdotal evidence to this i ordered 2020 LR Model S and was about to take delivery and Tesla revised my trade-in down by $5000 .. i balked and they had a buyer for my custom MS order that day ... this was for MS (low demand relative to M3 , MY)... i did not get the car as a result
 
Last edited:
If people cancel delivery and reorder, doesn’t that put them at the back of the line with the current prices? Most people who are receiving delivery in Q4 placed orders when prices were much lower. The giant wave of price hikes came in March.
I'd imagine a healthy FSD price increase (with advanced notice) could accelerate 2H sales as well. There are so many levers Tesla could pull... even if needed.
But why are many of the EV stocks down today? Rivian, NIO, BYD, Lucid... People confused and trying to comprehend 900 pages?
 
Bingo! There are a ton of dual income folks making over $150K annually, especially by the fact they still live in California.
Except that dual income households have a $300k income threshold, not a $150k threshold. That's good money, even in California.

Regardless, the status of these cars will be unclear until much later in the year. This is an end-of-the-year issue only.
 
Since nothing fun is happening, I thought I'd point out an interesting tidbit from this terrible piece of legislation.

Heat pump hot water heaters are eligible for up to $1750 in rebates under the IR Act.

I bought one for about $1400 minus a $500 utility rebate. In warmer climates, these things are an absolute no brainer. They pull in warm air, heat the tank of water, and exhaust cool dry air that can be ducted a short distance.

Effectively I now have an extra air conditioner in my home, cutting off 1/4 of my cooling needs, that also happens to give me free hot water.

Mine is a hybrid, so I can switch to electric in times of high demand, but I almost never use that.

Something to keep an eye on if you maybe already have solar and an EV, but are looking to take the next step. Making these standard in certain areas would be a HUGE energy saver.

Cool article from electrek....


I got a heat pump as well and can confirm that the advantages you listed are true for me too. I bought mine in 11/2021. So worth it!

The permit still hasn't completed, so I'm wondering if my heat pump still works for the IRA tax credit (which would be awesome).
 
  • Like
Reactions: UltradoomY
I'd imagine a healthy FSD price increase (with advanced notice) could accelerate 2H sales as well. There are so many levers Tesla could pull... even if needed.
But why are many of the EV stocks down today? Rivian, NIO, BYD, Lucid... People confused and trying to comprehend 900 pages?
HA! 900 pages, that's nothing! The Chips Act was just signed into law today and it is 1054 pages. Wish it could have been 1024 pages though...

 
HA! 900 pages, that's nothing! The Chips Act was just signed into law today and it is 1054 pages. Wish it could have been 1024 pages though...

nerd-the-simpsons.gif
 
... said every person on this forum.

/S
AHEM!

(we did, though, see one Model S and one Model X when in Fairbanks last week. THAT is one megalopolis where the Tesla Wave remains in full - frantic - force. But on the Denali or Richardson Highways? Seeing another Tesla would be enough to cause a multi-car pileup even were only two cars present.)
 
If you place an order now, you are projected to still get your car this year. The only exception is the long range Model Y. But for that one the projection starts in January. So you might be asked to take delivery this year.

That's why I think Tesla will raise prices soon. They will want current order holders to know that they should go ahead and take delivery in Q4 because the tax credit won't save them much money by waiting.
Base Model Y (white or MSM) has an projected delivery date of April 2023 - July 2023. Add 20" rims that shifts to Jan 2023 - April 2023. So for most, if you order now, you probably won't get it until next year anyways. Anyone that is projected to get it within the next few months have probably locked in a much lower price so cancelling to reorder and get it with the $7,500 credit isn't much of an incentive.
 
Another potentially small but long term benefit to Tesla from the bill is from the potential increase in sale price of off-lease and trade-ins, if the demand remains high for used vehicles, which I think it will.

SEC. 13402. CREDIT FOR PREVIOUSLY-OWNED CLEAN VEHICLES.
The term ‘previously-owned clean vehicle’ means a motor vehicle—
‘‘(A) the model year of which is at least 2
years earlier than the calendar year in which
the taxpayer acquires such vehicle
‘‘(ii) is a motor vehicle which—
‘‘(I) satisfies the requirements
under subparagraphs (A) and (B) of
section 30B(b)(3), and
‘‘(II) has a gross vehicle weight rating of less than 14,000 pounds.
(C) which is the first transfer since the date of the enactment of this section
to a qualified buyer other than the person with whom the original use of such vehicle commenced

Max amount is $4000 or 30% of the sale price
 
Last edited:
  • Informative
  • Helpful
Reactions: JusRelax and Nathan
Base Model Y (white or MSM) has an projected delivery date of April 2023 - July 2023. Add 20" rims that shifts to Jan 2023 - April 2023. So for most, if you order now, you probably won't get it until next year anyways. Anyone that is projected to get it within the next few months have probably locked in a much lower price so cancelling to reorder and get it with the $7,500 credit isn't much of an incentive.
This has been pointed out by myself and others multiples times and yet he ignores that. Tesla has a clear policy that you can only delay once before you lose your spot and line and your reserved pricing. Someone posted a chart a couple pages back which shows substantial price hikes for the Y trims back in March/April. Those orders won't be fulfilled until Q4.

Considering the wait time for base Model Y which you correctly pointed out goes well into 2023, there will likely be a ton of buyers that would be willing to jump the line considering that by Q4 of this year, the wait time for the base Model Y will likely be extended until Dec 2023.