Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jw934]

Tesla stock will begin trading at a 3-for-1 split-adjusted price on Aug. 25, after gaining shareholder approval on Aug 4, when it closed at $925. (Now down $80 in 3 days)

Looking at Amazon, which in June completed their 20-1 split, investors may start to buy into TSLA one to two weeks prior to Aug 25 to get the 2 free shares if they think like Amazon investors, and some newbies may buy Tesla shares on "66% off sale" on Aug 25, or put in a bid using the old price(?)

 

[Usain]

Great for people who own a Nissan Leaf and have never sold it. Likewise first owners of the Chevy Bolt. If you timed it right, you got the first rebate when you bought your Bolt, took the $6,000 "don't sue me" payout from GM, and will be able to sell it used and indirectly benefit from the $4k rebate. A couple more years and some Bolt owners will be have been paid to own their car.

You couldn't get both the $6,000 "don't sue me" payout and the $7500 tax credit. The 6K payout was only for certain buyers in 2022.

But as a 2017 Bolt customer, I did get the $7500 tax credit, and a new battery, and I'll get the indirect $4k rebate when I sell my Bolt next year.

Parking outside during the recall fiasco was a bit inconvenient. But I came out of it in pretty good shape.

 

[Andy O]

Government supported chargers are getting nearer in Canada. One deadline is this Thursday.

The Zero Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program (ZEVIP) is a $680 million initiative ending in 2027 and its objective is to address the lack of charging and refuelling stations in Canada;

The Request for Proposals (RFP) focusing on public places, on-street, multi-unit residential buildings, workplaces and vehicle fleets is now open until August 11, 2022 (23:59 Eastern Daylight Time).

Zero Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program

www.nrcan.gc.ca

 

[capster]

MMs were going to be ready with a plan for this split. They’re a fool me once kind of crowd.

 

[MartinAustin]

I do see US demand falling off a cliff for Q4. Absent any price changes, I think a ton of customers will try to put off delivery until Q1. Why not wait and get $7500 off that new Model Y?

I think Tesla doesn't want US sales to fall off a cliff in Q4. So they will raise prices soon in order to incentivize deliveries in Q4.

Tesla was the first company to come to the end of the 200,000 limit from the original EV tax credit. The journey down to zero was intensely studied and journaled in the press, both by actual news reports and from FUDsters. Yes, the Anton Wahlmans and GoJo's of the business got a lot of mileage out of the threat of demand cliffs. First when the tax credit went from $7,500 to $3,750... then when it went to $1,750 I believe and then finally when it expired. Each of those changes were marked by a flood of warnings of "demand cliff" and guess what actually happened? Not only was there no demand cliff, but there seemed to only be an increase in demand. (And we can only really guess at demand... production numbers are all we actually see. We don't see the numbers in the various waiting lists.) Over the long term, Tesla production has only climbed, and climbed fast. We are not expecting this to change... and the instatement of a tax credit in 2023 won't create some lowering of production at the factory... production will only increase as it has always been doing. Conclusion: ZERO EFFECT.

And what else??? This is a USA ONLY thing. Not Canada, Europe, China or anywhere else. Folks thinking it'll alter Tesla's global trajectory are probably Americans with a bigger idea of the American car market's position in the world than it really is.

 

[MountainRatMat]

I brought this up yesterday as I was reading through the bill. It turns out that the cap on used cars is 25K. So it wouldn't affect most used Teslas in the near future.

But it's nice to know that it will prop up the resale value in the long term. There are no restrictions about mineral sourcing for used EVs. So the Tesla you own today will eventually qualify for the credit if you hold on long enough.

We're going to see a lot of used cars sell for exactly $25k, why this isn't a phase in and a hard cliff I will never understand.

 

[2daMoon]

Something from Lars for anyone thinking Tesla needs to offer many more models...

 

[dhanson865]

Which means an older Leaf is now worth $8K vs $4K

Not unless they got rid of the one owner + dealer seller clause(s).

My 2012 Leaf is a 2 owner car and the next buyer would be the 3rd owner. Prior versions of the bill excluded it because it's not being sold by the dealer and isn't a 1 owner vehicle.

 

[winfield100]

Hey folks - anyone know where I can find solar or renewable adoption trends by country by month or quarter?

this may have something close to what you are looking for, although it's by year, the data is by country, region etc

I would look at specifically the Wind generation in terawatt hours and Solar generation in terawatt hours, perhaps combine those 2 sheets after a fashion in the excel file.
here is example of =>World<= generation in terawatt hours of PV + Wind and both combined, extrapolated out to 2041 using 10 year average growth rates that i recently did, not how it was around 0, 20 years ago, and maybe 1-1.3% 10 years ago......

As you can see, in 15 years (2036) PV + Wind is 30,000 TWh (100%) and 60,000 TWh by 2041 (200%,)(only 5 more years!) naturally these may be off, but when you "walk an exponential curve, it's flat behind, and vertical ahead"

Downloads | Energy economics | Home

Use this section to download the PDF edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy, the Excel data – and more

www.bp.com

 

[Spacep0d]

It really means dick.

Why? If I make 270K and have to pay avg price of a house of 1200K, then I'd rather make 100K and pay 150K for a house. Etc.

WFH. Make your metro salary, live where you want.

 

[betstarship]

this may have something close to what you are looking for, although it's by year, the data is by country, region etc

I would look at specifically the Wind generation in terawatt hours and Solar generation in terawatt hours, perhaps combine those 2 sheets after a fashion in the excel file.
here is example of =>World<= generation in terawatt hours of PV + Wind and both combined, extrapolated out to 2041 using 10 year average growth rates that i recently did, not how it was around 0, 20 years ago, and maybe 1-1.3% 10 years ago......

As you can see, in 15 years (2036) PV + Wind is 30,000 TWh (100%) and 60,000 TWh by 2041 (200%,)(only 5 more years!) naturally these may be off, but when you "walk an exponential curve, it's flat behind, and vertical ahead"

Downloads | Energy economics | Home

Use this section to download the PDF edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy, the Excel data – and more

www.bp.com

View attachment 838728

Thank you, very very helpful - I was hoping month-to-month in 2022 rather than annual, but maybe I haven't delved into the charting tool well enough!

bp energy charting tool | Energy economics | Home

Explore data from the Statistical Review of World Energy online or download the app to your tablet or smartphone

www.bp.com

 

[Singuy]

Article about Tesla's FSD hitting a child came out a hour ago and argo went nuts on selling

...oh wait it's a child mannequin
...oh wait it's by the same people doing commercials trying to get FSD banned.

 

[Ogre]

Article about Tesla's FSD hitting a child came out a hour ago and argo went nuts on selling

...oh wait it's a child mannequin
...oh wait it's by the same people doing commercials trying to get FSD banned.

So you are saying a company with a competing software platform are trying to make Tesla look bad?


** Shocking **

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You are living in a bubble. Even in the DC area, 95% of couples earn less then $300k. IT people making $270k a year? I am in the DC area and not a single IT person I know makes over $180k. Salaries of $120k are common. The income limits are quite high, and congrats to you if you exceed them.

So all of this talk of doom and gloom for q4 (I even thought it could be problematic) has to be balanced by the fact that Tesla does not live or die on quarters, and can easily just keep those cars an average of 50-60 days and sell them EASILY in Q1 at an even higher price. Over the two quarters it will make zero difference or be a net positive. Tesla could even announce a $2000 or so price increase starting January 1 and get away with it.

I am absolutely not living in bubble. How about you go on glass door and look at even mid-level compensation at Microsoft/Apple/Google/FB/Intel/TI/etc....

Easily over 150k total compensation for an individual. Bare in mind, this is total compensation which counts as income. Meaning it's salary + annual cash/stock bonus + RSU sign bonus that's spread over 4 years. That all adds up to easily over 150k/annually for an individual in the tech space. Considering by far, tech workers making up a disproportional amount of buyers for Tesla's, this has a material impact on just how affected Tesla would be in Q4.

WFH. Make your metro salary, live where you want.

All of the tech companies have implemented geographic pay scales now. You can go live in a cheaper cost of living location, but you'll get less compensation.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Article about Tesla's FSD hitting a child came out a hour ago and argo went nuts on selling

...oh wait it's a child mannequin
...oh wait it's by the same people doing commercials trying to get FSD banned.

Yeah there a material amount of sell volume that came in out of nowhere. I wish Tesla would actually spend the money to go after these people. I saw the article. They could easily be sued for defamation/false and intentional misleading with intent to harm.

 

[jw934]

Not unless they got rid of the one owner + dealer seller clause(s).

Regarding the one owner condition, it is going to be the first transfer after date condition:

SEC. 13402. CREDIT FOR PREVIOUSLY-OWNED CLEAN VEHICLES. . . . (C) which is the first transfer since the date of the enactment of this section to a qualified buyer other than the person with whom the original use of such vehicle commenced

Not sure when is "the date of the enactment", but I am hoping it is Jan 1, 2023.

This section will help government validate "first transfer" since enactment.

(d) VIN NUMBER REQUIREMENT.—No credit shall be allowed under subsection (a) with respect to any vehicle unless the taxpayer includes the vehicle identification number of such vehicle on the return of tax for the taxable year.

 

[Nocturnal]

Yeah there a material amount of sell volume that came in out of nowhere. I wish Tesla would actually spend the money to go after these people. I saw the article. They could easily be sued for defamation.

ODowd literally tweeted that FSD beta will mow down children. Not "it could" or "risk of".

 

[2daMoon]

ODowd literally tweeted that FSD beta will mow down children. Not "it could" or "risk of".
View attachment 838739

Well, Elon has been sharpening his litigation team of late.

Maybe it is time to start whittling.

 

[Papafox]

What looks odd about that mannequin hit test is that the car is running down a lane of orange cones with light colored stripes in the middle and the mannequin looks amazingly like a red cone. You have the orange pants on the mannequin, the light colored middle and then the redish-orange cap. Then there's the green fence in the background. I strongly suspect that if you repeated the test but without the specific environment that Tesla's FSD would look much better. This may well be a case of trying various approaches until you can find an artificial weakness in the FSD software then doing "the test" on that known weakness scenario.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What looks odd about that mannequin hit test is that the car is running down a lane of orange cones with light colored stripes in the middle and the mannequin looks amazingly like a red cone. You have the orange pants on the mannequin, the light colored middle and then the rdish-orange cap. Then there's the green fence in the background. I strongly suspect that if you repeated the test but without the specific environment that Tesla's FSD would look much better. This may well be a case of trying various approaches until you can find an artificial weakness in the FSD software then doing "the test" on that known weakness scenario.
View attachment 838748

Guaranteed they ran that test 50 times with slightly different colorations, configs, etc....until they got the Tesla to hit the mannequin.