Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Are the rest of you going to sleep better tonight on hearing this...? I am.

 

[Open Interest]

I just learned Elon sold more TSLA shares.
I just learned today in the middle of my clinic from the oncologist calling on my cellphone that my 48 year old brother had terminal metastatic stage IV rectal cancer and he got admitted to the ICU today for terminal kidney failure due to cholangitis from liver metastasis and just watched him pass away at 9PM tonight. I was supporting him for the last 3 months through his cycles of chemo and radiation therapy, he had no metastatic and everything failed, they supposedly never saw an aggressive cancer like this, ever.
All this while I have been on call 24/7 for the 25th consecutive straight day on a total of 28 while one of my patient passed away during his hemodialysis treatment after his shoulder surgery.
The CPI numbers better be frigging good because everything is turning into a big pile of steaming crap lately.


Next time you think you are having a bad day, please get in line for the silver medal on the podium of the worst day ever.

So very sad. Condolences to you and your family OrthoSurg.

 

[Rarity]

Elon doesn't give a *sugar* about money at this point.

He has more money than he can reasonably or rationally spend in 100 lifetimes.

Untrue. We need to keep in mind that the largest shareholder has stated that his investment in Tesla will be used to fund the colonization of Mars. I doubt that he has enough resources right now to accomplish that goal.

 

[Captkerosene]

He could have started his own social media app for far less and been well on his way months ago.

And we can point out the poor optics of the CEO selling shares.

Every political decision going forward will be made with the knowledge that Elon owns Twitter. Buying it is a power move. Talk about influencer. Hell, he may get to decide who the next president will be. Tesla will soon have new friends coming out of the woodwork. UAW who? Wanna be a Federal judge? ... Don't mess with TSLA

 

[dm28997]

Elon playing it safe and may buy Tesla stock back. I may get but buying Twitter is good for Tesla and improving Twitter as well. Having some spare cash I picked up some more chairs so I'm super duper happy.
Don't bet against Elon.

 

[Thekiwi]

I cant say I blame Elon for selling down some of his Tesla stake, even if he wasn‘t buying twitter.

The man wants to get Humanity to mars. He currently has a high enough net worth to do that out of his own pocket - which is simply a mind blowing almost unbelievable situation to be in.

However the bulk of his net worth is in one company, and while the company is firing on all cylinders, there is a small chance the value of the company could crash at some point to a level where he can no longer fund the mars missions (if he had to fund it solo).

Therefore it is prudent to at least have a plan to preserve some of the capital now for a small chance worse case scenario (even if it means foregoing likely bigger returns on it if he kept it in Tesla), so that if Tesla had a value crash outside of its own control he wouldn’t get wiped out personally to a level where he ”only” has tens of billons of equity outside of his SpaceX stake to commit to new spaceX funding if needed. (eg: Maybe China invades Taiwan - which would be highly detrimental to Tesla currently).

 

[Thekiwi]

I do see US demand falling off a cliff for Q4. Absent any price changes, I think a ton of customers will try to put off delivery until Q1. Why not wait and get $7500 off that new Model Y?

I think Tesla doesn't want US sales to fall off a cliff in Q4. So they will raise prices soon in order to incentivize deliveries in Q4.

I don't know how viable it is to do a major increase in exports from the US just to absorb US production for that one quarter.

What is the worst that can happen? Tesla moves 100k Q4 deliveries into Q1? That is not an issue to be worried about, especially if communicated to the market in advance.

 

[Ogre]

Untrue. We need to keep in mind that the largest shareholder has stated that his investment in Tesla will be used to fund the colonization of Mars. I doubt that he has enough resources right now to accomplish that goal.

If Starship delivers the promised performance, Musk will be able to colonize Mars based on that investment by itself.

If it fails to deliver on its promise, no amount of Tesla money will help.

Starship is huge. Literally and figuratively.

 

[30seconds]

The major problem I see is that there is a portion of stock holders who felt that Elon did not need to sell due to developments with twitter. Dude lives in a tiny house, spaceX raises it own money, etc.

Due to lack of transparency now we need to wonder how set it Twitter financing. Which “commitments” will stick through this lawsuits and which will not.

Unfortunately I see this as a overhang on the stock price until Twitter is resolved. A tweet from Elon claiming that he is done selling won’t cut it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon selling shares likely increased the supply of shares and will likely meet the demand created by shorts covering .
The chance of a squeeze that many here are expecting just cratered .

I considered this too, but I have actually run the numbers. On July 29, 2022 there were 25.0 M shares of TSLA sold short. Elon sold about 8 M shares from Aug 5-9, 2022. That's only 32% of the SI (which btw went UP by 1.5M shares in this 2 wk reporting period).

So no, that's not enough new shares to 'crater' the chances of a squeeze, which depends primarily on the forced truing up of MM accounts for their phantom shares. That will still occur.

 

[CaliBear1]

FSD is not engaged in this video as the path planned line in the middle of the lane is grey and the steering wheel is grey. It is **ONLY** using FSD when that line is blue and the steering wheel is blue.

Also, the NHTSA test with a Strike-able Surrogate Pedestrian Adult or Child is done within lane lines and not cones.

I know as I performed this test, passed it with my AP team and shipped the code in late 2014.

And one more thing, this test is very specifically NOT being done under NHTSA test conditions and could very well be debunked with cones setup on the wrong side of the road, going the same speed (25 MPH) with a Strike-able Surrogate Pedestrian Child and putting the car into FSD mode with a blue line and blue steering wheel. FSD should mitigate all crash energy in this situation every single time.

Discoducky, thank you for this invaluable information. Reason 1009 why this site is invaluable for information arbitrage and anxiety reduction in the face of constant and often outrageous FUD!

THANKS to you, Papafox and ask the others breaking down this O'Dowd attack on Tesla.

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1557199046741094400

This is even bigger news. If twitter deal falls through he says he will buyback Tesla stock

Interesting dynamic with that buy the dip comment if Elon buys back Tesla stock. He will have to buy them back at a higher price if everyone buys the dip as instructed as Elon is locked out from buying months into the future.

 

[Matias]

Why? They're his shares. I'll just be happy to hear when he's done.

Here's hoping we get the "done selling" tweet soon.

"First in, last out..."

 

[Singuy]

"First in, last out..."

Pretty sure the only way to be the last out is if Tesla is going to zero. So that is a "captain will go down with the ship" comment and no longer applies.

 

[pitabun]

Interesting dynamic with that buy the dip comment if Elon buys back Tesla stock. He will have to buy them back at a higher price if everyone buys the dip as instructed as Elon is locked out from buying months into the future.

So if you'd like to stick it to Elon, buy more TSLA shares!

 

[MartinAustin]

So will there be a buying spree on Wednesday?

 

[gtrplyr1]

Busy day so I’m just reading about the sale now. I’m so irritated at the whole twitter thing … I said it before and I’ll say it again, Elon will be forced to comply and buy twitter for the agreed upon price … he made a terrible deal and didn’t do his homework. This will not be the end of his selling … unfortunately.

No 3d chess … not even tic tac toe

Sigh

 

[ggr]

Can someone please explain to me, like I am 5, why the timing and optics are bad? Why is selling right after the shareholder meeting worse than selling some other time?

Thanks in advance!

Because, in the investor meeting (an official Tesla event) he said "Think of it as a buying opportunity", and then sold...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Busy day so I’m just reading about the sale now. I’m so irritated at the whole twitter thing … I said it before and I’ll say it again, Elon will be forced to comply and buy twitter for the agreed upon price … he made a terrible deal and didn’t do his homework. This will not be the end of his selling … unfortunately.

No 3d chess … not even tic tac toe

Sigh

Yes it is. If you do the math, these sales cover all of the remaining private equity that was in the offer. You debate on wether Elon will actually buy back the shares if the Twitter deal falls through, but this is definitely the end of his selling. Anyone saying otherwise hasn’t read the terms of the financing for the deal

 

[gtrplyr1]

Busy day, just read Elon did sell, confirming one of my fears regarding this whole twitter debacle.

3d chess? It’s not even tic tac toe.

He made a bad deal but I don’t see him getting out of it. Investors will jump ship and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sell more stock.

Cheers to the longs …..