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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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On the surface the anger and upset over this turn of events seems warranted in the same way that the whole taking private and funding secured anger seemed warranted, until in hindsight, when all the information came to light, it wasn’t and all the jumping to conclusions made certain people look like spoiled children.

So for now I’ll do what I always do and not take it personal, and wait until all the facts reveal themselves down the road, at which point I’m confident all that gets revealed will show that he did it the best way possible.
And, during this time when Elon sold, the manips—I know how you relish that term 😉—thought they were in control.

When the tailwind of Elon’s share sales dies away, then what for the shorts? Welcome to the "Roaring Forties" of the stock world—and don’t let the pavement hit you on the way down (yeah, yeah admixture of metaphors—very combustible that).
 
Busy day, just read Elon did sell, confirming one of my fears regarding this whole twitter debacle.

3d chess? It’s not even tic tac toe.

He made a bad deal but I don’t see him getting out of it. Investors will jump ship and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sell more stock.

Cheers to the longs ….. 😔
If needs Musk must sell shares for the Twittering—and I shall not opine on this (though I honor his idealism and pugnacity here too) —then best twere done quickly, i.e. before the split. He could’ve treated other TSLA shareholders worse by waiting.

Equally obviously, if you (or any of those whining here about Elon‘s moves or tweets* that baffle them) could do better than Elon, then do so. Go forth. Act. Show us your mettle!

I get it: Tesla longs want Elon to optimize for Tesla alone. Yet, if it it isn’t obvious that Elon is looking beyond Tesla to these folks, then perhaps TSLA is not the equity for them.

*I have generally refrained from commenting about Elon’s tweets. But I will remind folks of the strategy used in Silicon Valley and elsewhere of denying competitors oxygen. At least one or two controversial politicians also employ this strategy effectively. While we do not have access to Tesla’s order book, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a positive correlation between Elon’s twittering and increased orders.
 
I would expect to see a settlement between Elon and Twitter sooner rather than later and much sooner than the October deadline. Having the whole Twitter overhang resolved will also be good for the share price to really take off based on Q3 and Q4 results.

What about the immediate impact of these recent sales being completed? CPI numbers coming out tomorrow will have an overall macro impact on any moves and will probably dominate. But aside from CPI numbers we can look at the couple of times Elon has finished selling recently to see how the stock has responded.

On 22 December 2021 Elon commented in the Babylon Bee interview that he had completed his 10% sale. This was interpretted as Elon having finished selling, although Form 4's indicate his last sales were actually made on the 28th December 21. From Decmber 22-27 TSLA rallied from around $900 to $1023. It then had a minor sell off from the 28th to 31st before gapping up after Q4'21 P&D was released on 4th Jan 22.

1660109689833.png


On the 29th April 2022 Elon tweeted that he had no sales planned after that day to raise funds for the Twitter purchase (plans can change).

1660109956517.png


On Monday the 2nd of May TSLA rallied strongly before falling with strong negative macro. However between the 2nd and 4th of May, TSLA climbed from $860 to $952 (also helped by some FOMC news and macro). The big drop from May 5-11 was mainly caused by a big NASDAQ macro sell-off on inflation fears.

1660110187956.png


So hopefully we get some positive CPI macro news that allows TSLA to stage another relief rally now that Elon is done selling again.
 
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Even Nikola, the fraud that it is, managed to ship 48 EV Semi-Trucks last quarter. Also important to note that some states have large incentives for EV Semis which are limited in total number available, so the sooner Tesla starts deliveries the better (and the new EV tax credit to come also has large subsidies for Heavy Trucks IIRC).
 
I gotta admit...I thought you were off your rocker when you thought it might be elon selling stock.

Same. I bought early Monday @ 900 as it fell. A bit shocked when it kept falling. Should have listened to Curt.

But I’m not troubled. It‘s good to know the reason for the fall was unrelated to Tesla, and that the recent uptrend is uninterrupted except for this out of the ordinary reason. Let’s see what happens next. I think Elon gave a clue at the shareholders meet- buying opportunity, courtesy of Twitter.
 
Just checking the dates:

17th October - TWTR trial starts
19th October? - ER
21st October - TWTR trial ends
21st October - Earliest date Elon could re-buy TSLA

Seems likely the ER will be moved from it's most likely date to avoid the trial. Holding the ER on the 21st, immediately following the trial could be explosive....

Is the 24th or 26th the most likely?
 
Just checking the dates:

17th October - TWTR trial starts
19th October? - ER
21st October - TWTR trial ends
21st October - Earliest date Elon could re-buy TSLA


Seems likely the ER will be moved from it's most likely date to avoid the trial. Holding the ER on the 21st, immediately following the trial could be explosive....

Is the 24th or 26th the most likely?

Does a judge in this sort of civil trial rule immediately? Or is there normally a days/weeks long delay before issuing a ruling?
 
Creating the app is the easy part. Getting several hundred million people to use the app is the hard part.
For us mere mortals, yes. Not if you're Elon Musk.

If Elon were to announce he created a social media app he'd have millions of people signing up the second they hear about it. At least 10 million, which is a conservative estimation. And 50 million if it's free. (Elon hinted he wants subscription fees, at least for some app features.)
 
Just checking the dates:

17th October - TWTR trial starts
19th October? - ER
21st October - TWTR trial ends
21st October - Earliest date Elon could re-buy TSLA


Seems likely the ER will be moved from it's most likely date to avoid the trial. Holding the ER on the 21st, immediately following the trial could be explosive....

Is the 24th or 26th the most likely?

Elon told us on the Q2 call not to expect him on future calls unless there is important news. Personally, I'd like to see Tesla function as a trillion $ mkt cap business without any need to schedule around $44 B mkt cap companies... ;)

Cheers!
 
I'm sure the sale of the stocks is an outcome of many "What if"- scenarios based on:
- Upcoming Twitter trial and it's possible outcomes
- Announcements planned for AI-day
- Q3 earnings reporting
- Stock split on August 17

Add the possibility for a multitude of lawsuits that will emerge from whatever scenario you choose, you still will have a way of seeing what the least costly outcome is for both shareholders and the company.

Personally, I think any sale of shares sucks but can see that this might be one of the least painful scenarios that could potentially boost the SP over the next few months (although it will be a bit of a roller-coaster on the way there).

We have to remember that one possible outcome could be that Elon gets forced to buy Twitter at the arranged price and this would cause havoc if he had to make an emergency sale of shares after that news drops. With the share price likely dropping heavily on the news of such an outcome (IF he still had to sell shares), he may have to be forced into selling a much higher percentage of shares (due to a lower SP created by the news). So, event if I don't like it, Im sure the consequences of not freeing up the cash now would be an even worse experience. HODL on!
 
. He wants to spend the money on something. X.com

FTFY

He wants to continue the Mission+, which is why he revived X.com, as he mentioned a few times - he had far higher ambitions for Paypal than what it became.

[OT]

Does anyone remembers when and why he changed his Twitter legend with " Mars and Cars, Chips and Dips" (my emphasis)?

Besides the Other Topics Galore and Numerology threads, is there a Muskology thread ( referring to Kremlinology ) ?


EMSK.Chips.and.Dips.jpg
 
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For us mere mortals, yes. Not if you're Elon Musk.

If Elon were to announce he created a social media app he'd have millions of people signing up the second they hear about it. At least 10 million, which is a conservative estimation. And 50 million if it's free. (Elon hinted he wants subscription fees, at least for some app features.)
Elon might have already started x.com development. Even if he ends up buying Twitter, he could replace the existing Twitter code with a clean new code. That would also make it easier to change Twitter culture.
 
- Stock split on August 17

Aargh.

"Tesla (ticker: TSLA) said Friday that each stockholder of record on Aug. 17, will get a dividend of two new shares for each held after the close of trading on Aug. 24. Shares will trade at the new, split-adjusted, price the next day, Aug. 25. The record date and stock dividend are only details."​