Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

We're starting to see a glut of inventory all over the place. I've actually held off on buying a ton of things simply because I know the prices for things are going to start dropping, in some places pretty rapidly, with the level of inventory I'm seeing.

Agreed. Wife wants new outdoor furniture, and I'm running down an "excuse list" until I see a good enough sale.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Short selling, or buying puts? (which causes a reflexive sale by their MM).

What does the Options Volume show us for this 1st hour of trading? If it's heavy put volume, then this is naked shorting, which will indeed become a larger headache for MMs come Aug 25th.

Paging @SOULPEDL for the chart.

Cheers!

 

[Tachyon]

Just looks like a typical MMD to me...

I suspect some
Left over lots from this round of sale got executed this am and hence the huge drop.May be, may be it’s finally done now.

 

[UncaNed]

Assuming you're serious, I strongly doubt that PayPal as it stands would probably not add signifiant value from the Elon vision perspective.
PayPal does have 430 million 'active' customers, but it only requires one transaction every ten months to be active. Their Braintree and Zelle businesses do have decent margins but those are really branded quite generic products. Not bad, profitable, but nothing groundbreaking now. Twenty years ago their business was transformational, and really helped eBay.

Today, armed with a Twitter base and the now ancient x.com vision updated there is a vastly different prospect. The global world of 'fintechs' does offer clues.
There is a reason why Tesla has no loyalty card despite a very large and rapidly growing nice transaction flow from Superchargers alone, plus the VPP flows that are just beginning, various subscriptions and more. Decades ago Sears was the one with a majority of all US consumers as credit customers, but they failed to make Discover anything more than a credit card.

Elon knows all that history better than almost anyone. he is not about to replicate the past. That was what x.com was intended to do but the short term opportunists of PayPal really wanted to cash out, so they did. Elon then founded SpaceX...and here wee are.

No chance Elon wants the ashes he left behind!!
(as usual these are my opinions, not necessarily facts. In this case all the history and context is readily available to everyone. Just check PayPal Investor Relations for a good beginning.

You doubt that PayPal as it stands would probably not add significant value??

 

[UncaNed]

Though it's not all gloom guys, you won't hear me complain or moan about TSLA trading like a dog anymore

I've resigned myself to the reality that loss of investor confidence will likely mean TSLA's valuation metrics will drop absurdly low. Probably settle in the TTM P/E range of 40-50 before I put expectations on TSLA's trading action going forward. At least for the next 6 months.

You guys get 6 months of not hearing me complain about how dumb TSLA's valuation is. Anytime TSLA underperforms I'm just going to be like "Yup....not surprised". From now on my posts will be strictly Tesla business related.


So............time to celebrate on the forums???

There really needs to be an emoticon for "I don't know what to think".

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Onto some actual Tesla business news, I posted this over in the near future quarterly financial thread:

Since Shanghai was able to get Model Y production already up to 12,000/week after just 2 weeks which averaged 1,716/day, I think you're going to need up to update your spreadsheet @The Accountant. Your numbers are too low

It was reported in this report, Tesla's Shanghai Plant to Reach 1.2 Million Cars Per Year After Upgrades: Report - TeslaNorth.com. ,that the Model Y lines were already at 2,000/day in late July and was set to reach 2200/day by August. Seems like this report was in fact true since you figure of the 1716/day average, the first week and especially the first few days in July, production was just getting restarted and very low.

Thus, we're looking at 68k Model Y production for Aug. And probably around 23-25k of Model 3 production. So roughly 92k production for Aug out of Shanghai.

Short summary, the July Shanghai numbers were much more bullish that the sales/export data suggest. And when you isolate it down to Model Y production, it's extremely bullish. The notion that has been going around that Shanghai would need 2+ months to reach the new production target levels will likely prove to be wildly inaccurate. Seems like less than a month, 3-4 weeks from restarting the line to hitting the new production target goals.

To be fair with a disclaimer, this is me extrapolating numbers. If there's any hiccups or new covid shutdowns, then these numbers obviously go out the window

 

[Discoducky]

Here's the next test for 12,800...

Punched through and great to see the VIX below 20. Here's to brighter horizons! and hopefully we perform to the beta today.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Punched through and great to see the VIX below 20. Here's to brighter horizons! and hopefully we perform to the beta today.

You wouldn't know that if you were watching CNBC this morning as the inflation data came out. I've never seen such a bunch of babies whining about how this inflation print doesn't really mean anything.

It was so damn obvious that they were positioned for the market to go down

 

[Artful Dodger]

View attachment 839096

Well, the 30K contract Put "spike" explains the motivation for the hard drop of the SP down to 850. Not sure what to make of the Call "spike" at 900.

Ideas?

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

A Triumph Bonneville T120 to go with my Moto Guzzi V7

I also used TSLA gains to buy a Model Y last year and a Model X that arrives in 3 weeks.

Wot? Not an Energica ? I ditched my thumpers for the cause.

 

[henchman24]

Punched through and great to see the VIX below 20. Here's to brighter horizons! and hopefully we perform to the beta today.

Yup... we are more likely to see it pull back and test the strength at 12,800 over the next day or so... but very bullish sign. If it holds on the test the other way, a 13k test is only a matter of time. Which if we puncture 13k, there is a lot of headroom for the market.

 

[Krugerrand]

You can't be a Debbie Downer when what you're saying is reality. Reality is the Debbie Downer here lol

Actually, yes you can and you are being that way now beyond what’s cute and funny and ‘reality’. You go too far and are feeding a viscous cycle of self negative narrative because you can’t see anything positive, though the latter does in fact exist.

I have a special offer this week only where you can attend my online Zen classes for the low, low cost of 5 pre split TSLA shares. Space is limited so act quickly.

*Fine print: no dogs allowed*

 

[traxila]

Maybe he told the broker to stop selling on TWTR but it hid the tweet?
...kinda see why he wants to buy it. Elon's 'yes' tweet regarding TSLA purchase if Twitter falls through is really hard to find!?

The brief period of time I had the TWTR app installed to follow EM and some others, I NEVER got a notification that he ever posted anything. I kept getting alerts and messages promoting certain politics. Made me feel like I was stupid and could not figure out how to use it. I deleted it and felt better.

 

[jamaatta]

BYD Blade batteries for Model Y's of Giga Berlin?

Tesla receiving BYD batteries for Giga Berlin's Model Y production

BYD batteries will reportedly be used in Tesla's Gigafactory Berlin in Germany, not Gigafactory Shanghai in China.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Gigapress]

Though it's not all gloom guys, you won't hear me complain or moan about TSLA trading like a dog anymore

I've resigned myself to the reality that loss of investor confidence will likely mean TSLA's valuation metrics will drop absurdly low. Probably settle in the TTM P/E range of 40-50 before I put expectations on TSLA's trading action going forward. At least for the next 6 months.

GAAP earnings per share in the last twelve months was $8.30.

40-50 P/E ratio would mean TSLA in the range of $332-415. I doubt it.

And if that did happen I would literally sell all of my remaining shares in order to buy calls because that share price range implies approximately 10x P/E on my expectations of about $40/share for 2023 earnings and I can’t imagine what kind of negativity and lost confidence it would take for the TTM P/E to get as low as 10.

 

[SOULPEDL]

While were on Max Pain topic.... Green wins this chart. Seems surprising the stock didn't move more to the center. Give it time I guess...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

GAAP earnings per share in the last twelve months was $8.30.

40-50 P/E ratio would mean TSLA in the range of $332-415. I doubt it.

And if that did happen I would literally sell all of my remaining shares in order to buy calls because that share price range implies approximately 10x P/E on my expectations of about $40/share for 2023 earnings.

I meant that comment more in that TSLA probably won't move higher until earnings compress the TTM P/E to around 40-50, at which point the stock will be forced higher. Which would happen right after Q4's earnings with TSLA having a Forward P/E in the 30's. At that cheap of a valuation, I see the fundamentals overpowering any Elon torpedo

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Actually, yes you can and you are being that way now beyond what’s cute and funny and ‘reality’. You go too far and are feeding a viscous cycle of self negative narrative because you can’t see anything positive, though the latter does in fact exist.

I have a special offer this week only where you can attend my online Zen classes for the low, low cost of 5 pre split TSLA share. Space is limited to act quickly.

*Fine print: no dogs allowed*

Only if mom is teaching....knowledge of future SP from her is priceless IMO

 

[henchman24]

BYD Blade batteries for Model Y's of Giga Berlin?

Tesla receiving BYD batteries for Giga Berlin's Model Y production

BYD batteries will reportedly be used in Tesla's Gigafactory Berlin in Germany, not Gigafactory Shanghai in China.

www.teslarati.com

I don't care what batteries they get, but get Berlin up and going! Sounds like that is happening!

 

[Singuy]

Yeah, you don't own Elon, either. Stop pretending you own his shares, or are clever enough to tell him how to employ them. U butt hurt? Sell. That's what u signed on for.

Lets just say most people here signed up for Tesla's execution and not Elon's extracurricular activities. TslaQ however only banks on Elon's extracurricular activities as they tend to nuke the share price. We try to ignore Elon's extracurricular activities as much as we can because they are sideshow of a sideshow.