Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Wall St is often times "positioned" in either a bullish or bearish way. If some data comes out that significantly contradicts how they're positioned, it can sometimes take a few days, if not a week or two, for Wall St to get out of it's trades/positions.

OK, that was my best guess too--that they're holding back until their options for this week have played out.

 

[traxila]

Can anyone explain why macros have been overall so muted to the CPI/PPI reports put out the last two days? Yes, they advanced yesterday, but seem to be retreating today despite more good news.

Muted? Really?

Monster rally yesterday.

This is macro digestion and acknowledgement of interest rate hikes still coming. Expect more of the same tomorrow with options Friday. Look to next week for macros to try and grind up.

I think what you really mean is why HAS TSLA BEEN SO MUTED, when it was just handed a great subsidy (without wanting it), is killing it in the real world, is lined up for monster profits and shrinking PE regardless of subsidy and has a stock split two weeks away.

We know there is no one explanation, it is a confluence of factors, including the nice run we had.

 

[Todd Burch]

Muted? Really?

Monster rally yesterday.

This is macro digestion and acknowledgement of interest rate hikes still coming. Expect more of the same tomorrow with options Friday. Look to next week for macros to try and grind up.

I think what you really mean is why HAS TSLA BEEN SO MUTED, when it was just handed a great subsidy (without wanting it), is killing it in the real world, is lined up for monster profits and shrinking PE regardless of subsidy and has a stock split two weeks away.

We know there is no one explanation, it is a confluence of factors, including the nice run we had.

No, I meant macros--in particular tech stocks, which are almost all red today (the big ones at least). Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P all near even today. But yes, I think this is all about options and next week shows better promise for more movement.

 

[phoggy123]

I am convinced the only thing that will break us above 1K for ANY reason is ratings upgrade to investment. At that point real money is going to jump into Tesla. When you compare institutional ownership of mega cap companies Tesla lags its peers and I have to believe this is due to its credit rating. I am hopeful this occurs in Q3 but I wouldn't put it past these firms to push it out much much further. The ironic thing as we saw with the S+P 500 addition is this does a massive disservice to these funds given the rise will most likely be meteoric rather than orderly. Every quarter they wait the sheer amount of cash Tesla produces will get bigger and thus harder to ignore. Should the fed stop hikes all together we go back to all time highs in 23'....just my opinion.

 

[henchman24]

I wouldn't say we have been muted in response, there was a 500 point Nasdaq run from yesterday to the first hourish this morning. It just hit the 13k resistance level and got slapped down. When you look at the overall downward channel of the last 8-9 months, we are at the top of it now and at a breakout point. 13k is also where we have had major resistance, support, and breakdown points over the last 18-24 months.

To me this simply comes down to being at a crossroads in the bear market. First time really since early April where there is a legit chance to break out of the bearish side of the trend. With that, we are getting major resistance and repositioning if it does break. If resistance holds, we could fall pretty quickly (the Nasdaq losing the 150MA is a sign it may). I really don't see a lot of economic things that could hit in the next week to throw it down... but weird things happen.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Do you think we could get Gordon Johnson to stand still for that long?

An insult to manikins! Slander!

 

[AudubonB]

No, I included my logic, somehow you missed it in your haste to make another baseless attack on me.

The transition to renewable energy is not so much a technical challenge (Tesla has largely solved that), it is a social challenge. Do I need to connect the dots any further or does the "social" in "social media" provide enough clues? Twitter is the most widely used and followed social media platform in the history of the world and it has a direct bearing on how people think about things like EV's, who gets elected, etc. And it has been taken over by bots run by conservative political operatives. It's become a threat to all we hold dear, including democracy. I would also say it's critical that Elon protects his voice there.

The quality of the content on this forum has steadily declined and I can draw a direct link to the unwise actions of the one moderator who believes he "owns" this thread and has run off some of our best contributors, people who knew how to think for themselves. If anyone owns the thread it is all of us, those who take time out of their busy day to contribute their unique insight and knowledge.

I absolutely stand by my criticism. “Renewable energy is a social and political challenge”. THAT is your justification of Mr Musk’s attempt to purchase - and is the worthiness of - Twitter?
Your history of posts demonstrates your intelligence and perspicacity. This series of posts belie that.

Likewise, so does your open suggestion that I have run off best contributors. Neither you nor any other non-Moderators know why some earlier prominent names no longer occur here.

 

[Ogre]

I am convinced the only thing that will break us above 1K for ANY reason is ratings upgrade to investment. At that point real money is going to jump into Tesla. When you compare institutional ownership of mega cap companies Tesla lags its peers and I have to believe this is due to its credit rating. I am hopeful this occurs in Q3 but I wouldn't put it past these firms to push it out much much further. The ironic thing as we saw with the S+P 500 addition is this does a massive disservice to these funds given the rise will most likely be meteoric rather than orderly. Every quarter they wait the sheer amount of cash Tesla produces will get bigger and thus harder to ignore. Should the fed stop hikes all together we go back to all time highs in 23'....just my opinion.

It’ll be at least 18 months before we see $1000.


Split is in 2 weeks. Once it splits, there is no longer a $1000 threshold. Nobody worries about “What’ll it take to break through $333.33”.

After the split, we need to triple to hit $1000 and worry about such a benchmark. In the mean time we might see some numerological resistance at $400, but that’s just below the ATH.

 

[elasalle]

just for the pic

https://twitter.com/x/status/1557786801686818816

 

[henchman24]

Split is in 2 weeks. It’ll be at least 18 months before we see $1000.

Once it splits, there is no longer a $1000 threshold. Nobody worries about “What’ll it take to break through $333.33”.

Post split, resistance is going to be $420.69.

 

[phoggy123]

It’ll be at least 18 months before we see $1000.


Split is in 2 weeks. Once it splits, there is no longer a $1000 threshold. Nobody worries about “What’ll it take to break through $333.33”.

After the split, we need to triple to hit $1000 and worry about such a benchmark. In the mean time we might see some numerological resistance at $400, but that’s just below the ATH.

I think you knew what I was implying in the post that until the large institutional buyers step in, the price will be limited. Market makers are going to ride options flow as long as they can, keeping the stock in a rage where that is optimized.

 

[StealthP3D]

I absolutely stand by my criticism. “Renewable energy is a social and political challenge”. THAT is your justification of Mr Musk’s attempt to purchase - and is the worthiness of - Twitter?
Your history of posts demonstrates your intelligence and perspicacity. This series of posts belie that.

Likewise, so does your open suggestion that I have run off best contributors. Neither you nor any other non-Moderators know why some earlier prominent names no longer occur here.

Actually, I do know why some of our very best members left, because they told me. In fact, it's no great secret to many of us who pay attention. I can't speak for every departed member, or those who are still with us but contribute a lot less than they did previously, but it's not that difficult to connect the dots.

To be clear, I despise Twitter, I'm not defending it. But the importance it has in modern social and political discourse is undeniable. In fact, these two things, the despicable nature of Twitter, and its importance to socio-political constructs is exactly why I believe Elon decided it would help the mission to reform it. This is a big deal (and pretty obvious to me). I agree with Elon that a better Twitter will make for a better future.

 

[Singuy]

Can anyone explain why macros have been overall so muted to the CPI/PPI reports put out the last two days? Yes, they advanced yesterday, but seem to be retreating today despite more good news.

Technical trading. I would watch what Cory has to say tonight. He has been right about bear traps 5/5 times. Depending on volume and what we close at, today may be another bear trap for the 6th time.

 

[GOVA]

Elon is focusing on the mission by acquiring Twitter, you are just slow to see how valuable it is to the mission. And that's coming from someone who despises Twitter and doesn't even have a Twitter account. You say you want the focus to be on the mission, but, before you can say how to most effectively focus on the mission, it is necessary to understand the biggest challenges standing in the way of completing the mission. The mission is not so much a technical challenge, but a social and political one. Think about that...

Personally, I hope all the people blind enough to think Twitter is a worthless distraction would use that as a reason to sell all their TSLA. They will have quite a shock when they finally learn that Elon actually did understand the mission, it's challenges, and how to most quickly solve it. And was willing to put his most valuable resource, his time, towards solving it, and all of his own personal assets. We don't need people who want to direct the mission when they have demonstrated they don't even understand the challenges facing the mission by being so narrowly focused on making money in the short-term, at the expense of all else. Elon has the big picture and it's baffling to me why some people don't understand that.

I absolutely stand by my criticism. “Renewable energy is a social and political challenge”. THAT is your justification of Mr Musk’s attempt to purchase - and is the worthiness of - Twitter?
Your history of posts demonstrates your intelligence and perspicacity. This series of posts belie that.

Likewise, so does your open suggestion that I have run off best contributors. Neither you nor any other non-Moderators know why some earlier prominent names no longer occur here.

Get a room you two. You asked, he answered and you still aren't happy.
I've been watching @StealthP3D 's posts very carefuly and overwhelming majority of them have been very helpful and beneficial to this forum.

I think that your lastest two direct attacks are unfounded. There is a right to disagree but your tone have been hostile @AudubonB

 

[Singuy]

Actually, I do know why some of our very best members left, because they told me. In fact, it's no great secret to many of us who pay attention. I can't speak for every departed member, or those who are still with us but contribute a lot less than they did previously, but it's not that difficult to connect the dots.

To be clear, I despise Twitter, I'm not defending it. But the importance it has in modern social and political discourse is undeniable. In fact, these two things, the despicable nature of Twitter, and its importance to socio-political constructs is exactly why I believe Elon decided it would help the mission to reform it. This is a big deal (and pretty obvious to me). I agree with Elon that a better Twitter will make for a better future.

Seriously doubt twitter will be better, especially with him going into this so politically charged. It has an "echo chamber" in the making more than anything else.

 

[Ogre]

I think you knew what I was implying in the post that until the large institutional buyers step in, the price will be limited. Market makers are going to ride options flow as long as they can, keeping the stock in a rage where that is optimized.

We can clearly run up to at least $1200/ share without large institutional investors.

We’ve spent a significant part of the past 6 months over $1000/ share. If it weren’t for a lot of external factors, we’d probably still be there.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Post split, resistance is going to be $420.69.

I have bought one lucky share at that price, every investor needs one, then we can move onward and upward—should be a fairly quick ordeal

 

[2daMoon]

I have bought one lucky share at that price, every investor needs one, then we can move onward and upward—should be a fairly quick ordeal

I'd be jiggy with picking one up before the Holidays, just sayin'

 

[Rohan]

God, I’ve got to rinse my eyeballs.

What a bunch of sorry excuses for human beings. Instead of moving on with life, they are going to spew bile and hatred toward the man they blame for their own mistakes. Petty, small men.

"Petty small men", or as my wife would say, 'men'.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think you knew what I was implying in the post that until the large institutional buyers step in, the price will be limited. Market makers are going to ride options flow as long as they can, keeping the stock in a rage where that is optimized.

Your post though is kinda silly though because you talk in absolutes.

Look I'm probably one of the most bearish ones here about the stock over the next couple of months. I think the loss of investor confidence (which includes the unwillingness of institutional investors to buy in) from Elon's actions/antics is legit. TSLA is clearly back in the downtrend channel and I think we're stuck in it even if the macro's break substantially higher. I also don't see the Moody's/S&P credit upgrade coming until after Q3 earnings or maybe even Q4 earnings. And I wasn't kidding when I said I could see Moody's/S&P using "an erratic CEO" as a reason for not doing the upgrade until Q1/Q2 2023. It's that stupid.

But Tesla the company could absolutely post earnings in Q3 that cause the stock to be at back at it's ATH in Q4. We could literally see an exact repeat of Q3/Q4 last year. Remember the stock went from 775 to 1250 in a month......and that was based on a stupid reason (Hertz deal). Q3 could provide the same rally but with a ton more substance and buffer in the P/E. As in TSLA at 1250 after Q3's earnings will result in a P/E way below what the P/E was after Q3 2021's earnings.

The real question is how low can Wall St push TSLA over these next two months.