just for the pic
And more FUD; news says Ralph Nader wants fsd banned. Ralph is 88 years old and may still use a land line. Powers that be will say anything and use anyone to smear or slow Tesla. I wonder if Ralph has been snookered.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
And more FUD; news says Ralph Nader wants fsd banned. Ralph is 88 years old and may still use a land line. Powers that be will say anything and use anyone to smear or slow Tesla. I wonder if Ralph has been snookered.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
I guess I dont see a situation that Wall Street can't put in their spreadsheet and say oh geez look they are making tons of money. I clearly said its my opinion....I am an idiot that spends too much time here.
Here is what I do know though,
1. Tesla amongst the largest cap companies is the least held percentage wise and some of these firms cannot hold sub investment grade.
2. Tesla is currently below investment grade
3. Tesla as a ticker owns the majority of the entire options market.
Until someone with Elon like money decides to buy we are going to be limited in our ascent upward...IN MY OPINION. It will require sustained buying pressure where price doesnt matter....like say massive investment funds.
It was last year sometime that he was going on and on about Telsa's valuation and about how the SEC should investigate. Since that is outside of his normal area of exposure it was suggested that some financial bias was maybe part of it. He talked up VW quite a bit vs Tesla's valuation.
Surely we can do better.
I get that it's your opinion, but you're ignoring what I pointed out, which is making your opinion look a bit silly.
I don't mean that in a harsh way, but TSLA literally went from 750 to 1250 last year in just a month after Q3's earnings......earnings which are going to be a fraction of what Tesla is going to post for Q3 earnings this year.
TSLA didn't have high institutional % during that time frame either. TSLA didn't have investment grade in Q3 last year either. All the element you listed were present in TSLA last year at Q3 and the stock still went from 750 to 1250. The only differences for Q3 this year is that Q3's earnings are going to be up 2.5-3X last years and TSLA's TTM P/E after Q3's earnings will be well under 100 while last year it was still in the mid to high 200's last year.
Just keep in mind that both of the past 2 quarter's earnings were impacted by factors that limited impact that (so far) are not present in Q3, which is what I alluded to. Q3 has the potential to be a mega blowout quarter if things stay steady in Shanghai. Q3 could be one of those fundamental re-evaluation quarters for a stock's valuation.
Two catalysts that could moon the stock at any time. INCLUDING TOMORROW AM!!!
1) Debt upgrade to investment grade.
2) Closed Twitter deal with financing in place.
OK! I am ready for BOTH TOMORROW AM! I said BOTH!!!
AM I UNDERSTOOD?
OK?!
ok...
Volume did fall off dramatically after the morning purge so that TSLA is finally coming in below normal like the rest of the QQQs at 75% or below. It was at like 50% for the day around 11AM. I take this as a positive from SP perspective that whatever big players or whatever were looking to run after EM's latest sales are now washed out. If buyers come in tomorrow, we should have a nice green day without big announcements. Of course, we do have an options Friday to deal with, but it would not be the first time MMs got washed out on a Friday.
CLOSED: 859.89-23.18 (-2.62%)
1) Debt upgrade to investment grade.
2) Closed Twitter deal with financing in place.
OK! I am ready for BOTH TOMORROW AM! I said BOTH!!!
AM I UNDERSTOOD?
OK?!
ok...
Volume did fall off dramatically after the morning purge so that TSLA is finally coming in below normal like the rest of the QQQs at 75% or below. It was at like 50% for the day around 11AM. I take this as a positive from SP perspective that whatever big players or whatever were looking to run after EM's latest sales are now washed out. If buyers come in tomorrow, we should have a nice green day without big announcements. Of course, we do have an options Friday to deal with, but it would not be the first time MMs got washed out on a Friday.
CLOSED: 859.89-23.18 (-2.62%)
I wish they would just settle on a lower price or even the same price very soon, but just have it be over with. The damage is done. For the love of god just let it be over.
What a coincidence all this stuff is happening now, right before the split. The US is completely corrupt, 3rd world country with a Gucci belt.
Was anything at all different in Q3 in the market? Like say the federal funds rate at 0% until March of 22? You had a massive draw down and reallocation in the market. I am not saying it isn't possible to go back to ATH but to compare the appetite for risk in Q3 to this quarter is ignoring a ton of variables unrelated to Tesla's balance sheet and performance.
I feel like most fund managers still believe Tesla's PE is far to high which makes them wait or be forced to buy. At some point they have to recognize what we all see, but I think they will wait.
The Accountant
Active Member
On Jan 24, 2020 Ralph Nader warned us about Tesla.
Ralph told us that TSLA had a "wildly speculative stock valuation". The stock was at $167 when he made this statement.
damonbrodie
Member
Last year did not have:
- China in lockdown for a month
- China threatening Taiwan endangering chip supply
- Russia going to war and holding energy shipments hostage for places including Germany
- Increasing scrutiny on Tesla's autonomous safety record by the NHTSA
- 4680 Ramp issues
Doesn't matter. Yes the Fed rate isn't 0% anymore. TSLA's TTM P/E also isn't 250. You realize how much of a valuation difference there is from a TTM P/E of 100 verses 250? And likely after Q3's earnings, TTM P/E of TSLA will be in the 70's.
The Fed Fund rate would have to be 15%+ to account for that level of P/E compression.
And I'm the one that speaks in absolutes? Yes I realize we are staring down the barrel of a Tesla money printing machine, but that doesnt mean a once in 15 year drawdown and the fed attempting to normalize rates won't affect the attitudes of investors.
Last year also didn't have TSLA at a P/E of 100......soon to be in the 70's.
Because in reality, that's metrics of valuation. Not Twitter, Not 4680 ramp (which Wall St has zero clue of anyways), NHSTA scrutiny has bene with TSLA forever.
I'm in no way over simplifying anything. Because valuation simply boils down to a set of metrics to determine valuation. Not noise. Noise can, and probably will, be in control for the next two months and then Tesla's fundamentals will be front and center. And then it's up to Tesla to see where the valuation goes.
Ok don't address what I say
. Ya might want to go through the history of the stock market and seen just how well P/E multiples across the market have held up during periods where Fed Fund rates were in the 3-5% range. Also, do the math for how much the Fed Fund rate would have to be at to justify P/E compression from 250 to 70.My response to your post was pointing out how things can change very quickly in TSLA. 2021 was a year long decline and consolidation that ripped from 750 to 1250 in a month. There are no present factors at play that prevent that same thing happening again this year.
I say this as a big Ralph Nader fan from the 70s when I was a child:
His role as an "authoritative voice of wisdom and common sense" should be subject to the same rules that all politicians should be subject to:
MANDATORY RETIREMENT AT 75.
Am I ageist? Sure. By definition.
Based on my experience with my 89 year old mother. We can put her in charge any time you guys want. See how that works out...
In all seriousness, has Ralph Nader ever been right about anything?
damonbrodie
Member
The valuation of a company has to include the Macro Economic forces that affect it - not all of which you can just swat away as "noise".Last year also didn't have TSLA at a P/E of 100......soon to be in the 70's.
Because in reality, that's metrics of valuation. Not Twitter, Not 4680 ramp (which Wall St has zero clue of anyways), NHSTA scrutiny has bene with TSLA forever.
I'm in no way over simplifying anything. Because valuation simply boils down to a set of metrics to determine valuation. Not noise. Noise can, and probably will, be in control for the next two months and then Tesla's fundamentals will be front and center. And then it's up to Tesla to see where the valuation goes.
Ok don't address what I say
Our own personal opinions about what the TTM or Future looking P/E ratios are reasonable for Tesla are irrelevant. The shareholder base (and those considering being shareholders) in aggregate decide that. I would not be surprised to see continued P/E erosion until the next "big thing" becomes a reality (Bot, Robotaxi).
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