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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Nobody knows for sure, but I am putting my money on a ramp up of Tesla's 4680 in the not so far future.
Because Tesla now not only announces the semi for 2022, but also the cybertruck for 2023.
Future will tell.
I’m greedy and I just want some solid signals. The lack of a 4680 narrative at the shareholders meeting has left me with a lingering concern.

Not a huge red flag, just a low level… hmmm
 
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Will this help $TSLA next week? Asking for a friend :)
 
Understanding what FUD exists and how it can be weaponized to reduce interest in the stock is part of our jobs as investors. I'm actually going to link a hit piece from Seeking Alpha (which I normally would NOT do) because it's a masterpiece of FUD against the uninformed. It links and references FUD articles and other sources like Reuters, Wikipedia, Autoblog, Tesla and more. It is lever and deceitful and knowing other potential investors who might be considering a Tesla position and are reading recent articles could easily be rattled by it. There's several absolute incorrect statements (lies) plus, of course, tons of spin. You've been warned not to click unless you take full responsibility! If it's allowed, we could paste the article here to avoid giving SA clicks, but I fear that would be against TMC policy.


Couple samples for those who refuse to click (understand)...

Clever:
Currently, in a car accident in the U.S., the driver of one car sues the driver of the other car. It is only very seldom the car manufacturer is sued. For self-driving cars, however, things are likely to be different. There aren't other drivers to sue. There is just the car - and the company that made it. It won't take long for plaintiffs' lawyers to start filing big lawsuits, even class actions, against the car and technology companies that made the cars and designed the self-driving technology. And, as we have seen in other such situations, there could soon be billion-dollar judgments against Tesla.

Lie (bold by me):
Recall and Warranty costs. In 2021, Tesla recalled 475,000 vehicles for safety issues in the U.S. alone. Barron's recently reported that, since January, 2022, Tesla has issued four recalls for almost 1.5 million vehicles worldwide, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. That's roughly four times the 360,000 cars that Tesla delivered in the U.S. in 2021, and a half-million more, at least, than the 936,000 delivered worldwide. Global deliveries rose about 87%, compared with 2020. Those problems have to be fixed free of charge, plus many other problems require fixing under warranty.
They all require the vehicle to be returned to a dealer to be fixed. They are a nuisance for the owners and costly for Tesla shareholders.



BTW- Great close today!
 
Surprised they stopped selling the long range in North America. Something is up.

Maybe bring back the mid-range Model 3 from 2018 and drop the price to $52-53K so people can still order paint and/or wheels stay under $55K.

With all the improvements they have made, heat pump, etc it might be close to a 280-300 mile car.

Avoids the pit falls of just trying to drop the price on the current long range to under $55K.

I don't think it's yet clear whether Tesla can meet the battery material and component requirements... especially with LFP or whatever the newer version of that is, which as far as I know is basically 100% from China (and thus not eligible for the rebate anyway).

Maybe their Nickel batteries qualify (I'm not sure about the supply chain for Giga Nevada or Giga Texas battery materials)... which would be more consistent with trying to get the LR under the budget. WRT the suggestion above, it would be a bummer to need to consume Nickel batteries for a medium-range car instead of using LFP designs to get there. I hope they plan to squeak an actual LR under the budget, and just don't want to lower prices before they work through the current backlog.

It would be nice if it was a shutdown for casting upgrades... yet I'm not sure I believe that either. They have a big backlog to fill, and a shutdown should just change the delivery timing instead of putting a hold on the entire ordering process. Unless there's a redesign significant enough to change the performance characteristics? But in that case why would the P model still be for sale?

Altogether curious.
 
congrats all on the 900 again
Really?

I think a bunch of you have been sipping the gin all day. We were higher than today’s close like a week ago. This is akin to cheering because the ants that have nested throughout your home left the day old sandwich on the counter alone, so you’re eating that while waiting for the fumigator to arrive. Seems like a victory all around, huh? 🙄
 
Really?

I think a bunch of you have been sipping the gin all day. We were higher than today’s close like a week ago. This is akin to cheering because the ants that have nested throughout your home left the day old sandwich on the counter alone, so you’re eating that while waiting for the fumigator to arrive. Seems like a victory all around, huh? 🙄
If someone were to come up to me in real life and say "Hey great to be back at 900 right!?"

..................I'd for real, slap them
 
Really?

I think a bunch of you have been sipping the gin all day. We were higher than today’s close like a week ago. This is akin to cheering because the ants that have nested throughout your home left the day old sandwich on the counter alone, so you’re eating that while waiting for the fumigator to arrive. Seems like a victory all around, huh? 🙄

o_O

I can't wait for the fumigator! I'm going to give them a fat kiss on the lips.

If someone were to come up to me in real life and say "Hey great to be back at 900 right!?"

..................I'd for real, slap them

Ok, I'll admit I'm happy we're back at $900. Mostly because I loaded up on LEAPs when we were at $650/ share.

But agree, at a minimum we need to hit $420/ share (coincidentally setting a new ATH) before we bust open the good beer.
 
Surprised they stopped selling the long range in North America. Something is up.

Maybe bring back the mid-range Model 3 from 2018 and drop the price to $52-53K so people can still order paint and/or wheels stay under $55K.

With all the improvements they have made, heat pump, etc it might be close to a 280-300 mile car.

Avoids the pit falls of just trying to drop the price on the current long range to under $55K.
So Tesla stops taking orders for the Long Range Model 3 just as the Inflation Reduction Act is passing the house. Probably not a coincidence, right?

But does Tesla even know if the Long Range Model 3 will be eligible if is under $55K?
Do they know for sure it meets the mineral sourcing requirements?

Even at $58K, it's possible for the LRM3 to qualify if the bill's MSRP requirement is interpreted as "base MSRP". So maybe the RWD Model 3 starts at $47K and "long range dual motor" is considered an option.

There is just so much we still don't know and I don't see how Tesla could know it either until the government agencies set the final rules.
 
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Really?

I think a bunch of you have been sipping the gin all day. We were higher than today’s close like a week ago. This is akin to cheering because the ants that have nested throughout your home left the day old sandwich on the counter alone, so you’re eating that while waiting for the fumigator to arrive. Seems like a victory all around, huh? 🙄
Yes, we were there a week ago, and it felt great, since our ATH was nearly a year ago.

It’s a step in the right direction, don’t shoot the messanger.

now…where did I leave, that sandwich
 
I don't think it's yet clear whether Tesla can meet the battery material and component requirements... especially with LFP or whatever the newer version of that is, which as far as I know is basically 100% from China (and thus not eligible for the rebate anyway).

Maybe their Nickel batteries qualify (I'm not sure about the supply chain for Giga Nevada or Giga Texas battery materials)... which would be more consistent with trying to get the LR under the budget. WRT the suggestion above, it would be a bummer to need to consume Nickel batteries for a medium-range car instead of using LFP designs to get there. I hope they plan to squeak an actual LR under the budget, and just don't want to lower prices before they work through the current backlog.

It would be nice if it was a shutdown for casting upgrades... yet I'm not sure I believe that either. They have a big backlog to fill, and a shutdown should just change the delivery timing instead of putting a hold on the entire ordering process. Unless there's a redesign significant enough to change the performance characteristics? But in that case why would the P model still be for sale?

Altogether curious.

They likely get 1/2 the credit pretty easy if they use the 2170 cells from Giga Nevada. The cells and pack are made in the US.

The other 1/2 will likely take time to develop the raw material sources, but I think Tesla is further along on the this than the legacy manufacturers.

This is why I think the mid-range might be a good idea. Drops the price below $55K to get the credit, but keeps the margin.
 
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So Tesla stops taking orders for the Long Range Model 3 just as the Inflation Reduction Act is passing the house. Probably not a coincidence, right?

But does Tesla even know if the Long Range Model 3 will be eligible if is under $55K?
Do they know for sure it meets the mineral sourcing requirements?

Even at $58K, it's possible for the LRM3 to qualify if the bill's MSRP requirement is interpreted as "base MSRP". So maybe the RWD Model 3 starts at $47K and "long range dual motor" is considered an option.

There is just so much we still don't know and I don't see how Tesla could know it either until the government agencies set the final rules.
I imagine base MSRP per model is what will be used to determine the rebate. It will be a pain to audit otherwise if they include options. The IRS needs to provide guidance before the end of the year. Currently they list the rebate available for each vehicle on their site. They’ll now need to collect not only battery capacity, but final assembly and battery mineral sourcing.


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I imagine base MSRP per model is what will be used to determine the rebate. It will be a pain to audit otherwise if they include options.
It is going to be a pain no matter what. Especially for people claiming the credit under the transition rules. So if two people buy exactly the same vehicle for the same price one may qualify while the other doesn't if they didn't have a binding contract. (And I don't think Rivian's contract will qualify as binding.)