Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

OT
Having been retired for 2 years now, I have watched my “all in” position grow 7x in just over two years. I was in the automotive industry for my entire life and received factory training from four different OEM‘s. I was at Saturn when GM decided that the China market for Buick was more important than the domestic market for the new hybrid Vue that was demonstrated at our dealership and that I received training for.
The various posters to this forum that have and still provide unique insight to this company have been invaluable to my wife and myself.
My experience in retirement started out with selling enough stock to last one year. I was going to do this to “have a reliable income stream”.
What I have found is now I just take a monthly ”draw” to cover living expenses (Due to our TSLA investment we actually have a better lifestyle now).
Even if we lost 3/4 of our investment, we would still be able to live comfortably.
Back to Tesla.
We watch almost daily the progress of the three factories, watch/listen to every quarterly, annual and special event.
Tesla, in our opinion, is the safest place to put our retirement savings.
Tesla paid for our Model Y, paid for our trip to Europe, paid for 4 sets of braces for the grandkids. We have a solar roof and an electric pontoon boat on order that we will be paying cash for.
The funny thing is the more money we take out and “spread around “ the bigger our pile grows.
(Not to mention the donations to various originations.)
Everyone has a different tolerance for volatility.

My situation is very similar to yours. Many on this forum can't understand why someone in retirement would be "all in" on TSLA.
Your comment "Even if we lost 3/4 of our investment, we would still be able to live comfortably" nails it.
Many retirees have done so well with buying and HODLing TSLA, that they will never spend all of their wealth in their lifetime.
TSLA could drop to $250 and I would still live comfortably. Your mindset changes from "how do I attain wealth?" to "what am I going to do with this wealth?". I am sure there is another thread that discusses this question.

Also working in the auto industry your entire life likely gave you the insight that Legacy auto was not going to catch up to TSLA and with that the confidence to go all in. I worked at 3 different Legacy organizations within Consumer Products, Pharma and Retail and it was this experience that gave me the insight that Legacy Auto would never catch TSLA due to resistance to change, failure being penalized, wrong skill set, weak middle management, yes men, internal politics, quarterly earnings pressures, senior management with the incorrect vision, etc.

Congratulation on your successful retirement.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla wins legal battle over naming of "Autopilot" in Germany (final decision, cannot be challenged any more):

Exklusiv: Deutsche Klage gegen Tesla-Werbung für Autopilot und FSD endgültig gescheitert

Ein deutscher Wirtschaftsverein wollte Tesla Autopilot- und FSD-Aussagen verbieten lassen – ist damit aber jetzt endgültig gescheitert.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

 

[Usain]

Does anyone have a resource explaining the vehicle requirements for an electric semi truck under the Inflation Reduction Act?

I'm especially interested to know if the Tesla Semi will be under the same critical mineral requirements as light duty vehicles.

 

[The Accountant]

First Soros . . . .then Natixis . . . getting ready for launch.

 

[Cult Member]

OK I AM GOING TO CALL IT NOW.

BS! Our leader claims that Model 3LR ordering has been halted because of the long wait period. Come on? Some of you are smarter than an ant?
It is going to have something dramatically different... probably as a result of the EV incentive thing... could be something else. Any clues from you humans?

What I have learnt: listen carefully to his words 'Will enable again as we ramp production.'
A ramp in Fremont? This place has space constraints as we heard from him. A solution would be a Model 3 with castings at front and rear. That saves a lot of robots and space. It's time for an update of this model!

 

[jw934]

To support the many that have mentioned the M3 LR cells could be re-purposed for the semi, ...

Below paragraph from the 8K mention that the CyberTruck is being planned for production, but no mention of Semi here. The single mention of Semi elsewhere, along with the RoboTaxi, is that they are in Development Status. The IRAct likely changed the economics to have Tesla prioritizing the semi over the CT, and hence needs the 2170s, at least in the short term until the 4680 production ramp up.

My guess is the strategy is to hold back M3 LR production (but still just barely within the promised dates of the existing M3 LR orders) because $profit/cell is likely the lowest for that model. and divert cells to the semi, which likely have the highest long term benefit to Tesla to be among the leaders for the first mover advantage.

 

[AudubonB]

Tesla wins legal battle over naming of "Autopilot" in Germany (final decision, cannot be challenged any more):

Exklusiv: Deutsche Klage gegen Tesla-Werbung für Autopilot und FSD endgültig gescheitert

Ein deutscher Wirtschaftsverein wollte Tesla Autopilot- und FSD-Aussagen verbieten lassen – ist damit aber jetzt endgültig gescheitert.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

That’s well and good, even though the problem never should have reared its ugly head.
But it does immediately engender another problem: to WHAT will I now have to change my favorite signature line? (Ha! Fixed!)

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm so confused then, because they keep telling us they have enough battery supply for the rest of the year....why close down one model for another then?

There’s no reason to be confused. There’s no reason to think it’s something other than it is.

Yet another reason why people suck. Because so many people lie in this world, everyone then assumes that everyone must be lying. That mentality then feeds the ridiculousness that is going on right here, right now.

Yes, I realize no OEM in the history of mankind has ever stopped taking orders for a vehicle because demand was too high. I’m not even sure it’s happened in the history of mankind for any product. Yet, here we are.

This is not your grandpappy’s car company and it’s not being run by anyone mankind has ever seen before. I understand this is impossible for many people to comprehend and accept. If it’s never happened before, it can’t be true. Right? We must seen data and blind studies and peer reviewed papers and even then - Even then, it simply can’t be true.

Oh, how my hope in us continues to be trashed.

 

[Fairchild]

Thank you STEALTH P3D for some of the best advice I have heard in years. I heartily concur. Sometimes I get a little anxious that my portfolio is 51% TSLA, particularly if something unforeseen should happen to Elon Musk. Some have said, "If you can't afford to lose it all, then you shouldn't invest at all." Not sure about that, but I reassure myself that I could manage well on my Military Retirement, VA Disability, and Social Security alone, without the market.

I agree, irrespective of the bottom line, the old habits of 'getting a good deal' die hard and rightfully so, because they are probably what got you to where you are today.

And don't forget to share with and give to others. A hand-up is always better than a handout and I have found that it always comes back in multiple ways. A friend once said, "I want to amass as much wealth in my lifetime as I can, and die penniless."

I got some exceptional service at a local restaurant chain the other night and was moved to leave a $100 tip for the waitress on relatively small bill. As I was leaving, she followed my wife and me into the parking lot in tears and said, "When I came to work, I didn't know how I was going to get the medicine my little boy needed, because I didn't have the money for it. Now I do. Thank you, thank you, thank you. She asked me if she could give me a hug. I felt her pain and her joy."

Money is money. It can do bad and it can do good. I prefer to see it do good.
Listen to your heart,
Be good. Do good. Feel good.

And remember, sometimes you have to be good to yourself as well.

 

[Snerruc]

To support the many that have mentioned the M3 LR cells could be re-purposed for the semi, ...

Below paragraph from the 8K mention that the CyberTruck is being planned for production, but no mention of Semi here. The single mention of Semi elsewhere, along with the RoboTaxi, is that they are in Development Status. The IRAct likely changed the economics to have Tesla prioritizing the semi over the CT, and hence needs the 2170s, at least in the short term until the 4680 production ramp up.
View attachment 840832

My guess is the strategy is to hold back M3 LR production (but still just barely within the promised dates of the existing M3 LR orders) because $profit/cell is likely the lowest for that model. and divert cells to the semi, which likely have the highest long term benefit to Tesla to be among the leaders for the first mover advantage.

This is interesting as I can order a no option 3 sr or P for delivery in 2-3 months. Doesn’t sound like much of a backlog to me. Since I can walk into a service center and buy a Plaid, or order a LR S no options in 2 months, the wait lists seem to be disappearing.

 

[Mengy]

What I have learnt: listen carefully to his words 'Will enable again as we ramp production.'
A ramp in Fremont? This place has space constraints as we heard from him. A solution would be a Model 3 with castings at front and rear. That saves a lot of robots and space. It's time for an update of this model!

Maybe Tesla is going to update the M3 to use a cast front frame section in order to increase production rates? Or it could simply be they intend to ramp the current production process to faster levels.

Either way, Tesla demand is off the charts. Super bullish in this auto market.

 

[new_sneakers]

My two cents on why the long range Model 3 disappeared from the order page:


One-off distortion of mix

The tax credit’s 2023 start date provides a temporary disincentive to order other models, but the Long Range Model 3 is not affected. Logically we should expect an artificially high *proportion* of orders for this variant in 2022 as this market distortion plays out in the US. Possibly Tesla has already seen this in the days since the bill passed the Senate then the House.

Performance 3 is in the same position but has a higher margin, so it makes more sense to keep its order page open.


More cars

Elon has emphasised that battery production will be an issue if 4680 does not ramp to volume production in the early part of 2023.

It makes sense to prioritise the sale of more cars with fewer kWh per car. This prudently provides some allowance for further delays in 4680 ramp before production numbers are affected.


Profitability

Removing Long Range may positively affect profitability. I am not certain on this. The software and trim options are a bigger percentage of the price on the base model.

Also, the higher base price of Model 3 and higher material costs of batteries have likely shifted the profitability, although Long Range has increased $11,000 since January 2021 to the base Model 3’s $9,000 increase in the same period.



Happy customers

In 2023, the Long Range Model 3 may return to the order page with changes to its specifications or price.

The former is very possible because Tesla often makes improvements, and the latter is perhaps likely because of the tax credit distortion.

It is nice, if possible, to put a little space between when the older/more expensive cars are delivered, and when the new specs and pricing are announced, so that the earlier customers aren’t left with too bitter a taste in their mouths.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla wins legal battle over naming of "Autopilot" in Germany (final decision, cannot be challenged any more):

So then, no "Ottopilot" for MiB Teslas?

Prost!

 

[traxila]

Genesis Showdown: A Gas G80 vs. Its Electric Twin

Built on the same scalable platform, the internal-combustion and all-electric versions of Genesis’s luxury sedan appear nearly identical. Is such twinning a winning strategy?

www.wsj.com

The main takeaway for me here is that the Genesis G80 is built on the exact same platform whether gas or BEV to ’save money and development costs.’

Rooting for the BEV model to sell well, but when are OEMs going to learn you can’t have your cake and eat it too? Design BEVs independently from the ground up or you will pay the consequences.

 

[The Accountant]

or order a LR S no options in 2 months

That's not correct. The 2 months on the S LR is for the upgraded 21" wheels. If you want the Model S LR with no upgrades, delivery is Feb-May 2023.
There is a 6 to 9 month wait on the Model S LR; if you select options, you move to the head of the line.

 

[JRP3]

I'm not sure why all the speculation about Model 3 LR production, Elon says the wait list is too long and they are trying to increase production. As Elon says you don't need to read between the lines just read the lines.

 

[Discoducky]

I'm not sure why all the speculation about Model 3 LR production, Elon says the wait list is too long and they are trying to increase production. As Elon says you don't need to read between the lines just read the lines.

Agreed and I don't see how any reasonable person could speculate that this is a negative. Seems hugely bullish, but as always, time will tell and I doubt we'll be waiting long to find out...Maybe 2 to 3 months? Will be interesting if the Semi launches prior to the 3 LR being turned back on.

 

[TNEVol]

I would think, when getting to retirement age, the thing to do would be to liquidate enough to establish a reliable income stream. At that point you can’t really have your entire net worth tied up in a volatile stock, no matter how much you believe in it.

Each of us has their own situation. My wife and I are in our mid seventies and I finally retired a couple of years ago. After the split and rise into the$700, I decided to sell half our TSLA which would provide us with enough cash for a very generous retirement. When I did so I promised myself to.never look back and say I wish I had done differently. I need to enjoy retirement while I can still be active. Now I can enjoy watching the unsold half go up and down without agonizing over our retirement. I will only add to it when great buying options occur and as long as I feel comfortable with the fundamentals I will not sell it.
I have now had 3 Tesla's an order for a CT and good financial security security thanks to TSLA and investing from my IRA beginning in 2013.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I woke to that O'brother FSD smear ad on our local Phx channel. Are people believing this farce? This seems fairly widespread, even after it was debunked.

You just know he'll eventually play ignorant "I didn't run the test, I didn't see the Electric post, I'm just an idiot." He will make history as THE Biggus D***us, and shall be represented in every marketing Textbook across the globe, picture included. There's actually a resemblance, so maybe it's a DNA thing.

 

[jw934]

AutoPacific - CONSUMERS PICK THEIR MOST-TRUSTED BRANDS FOR DEVELOPING FULLY-AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES MARCH 17, 2022