Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

I'm not sure why all the speculation about Model 3 LR production, Elon says the wait list is too long and they are trying to increase production. As Elon says you don't need to read between the lines just read the lines.

It's because he picked the m3 awd lr which compared to the rest of the line up doesn't have the longest wait time and at current pricing doesn't qualify for any tax credit so new tax bill shouldn't have spiked demand either.

If Tesla is anticipating an increase in production then closing the order book is like the opposite you want to do. You don't see this happening to the Y and S/X in which they are actively increasing production despite record wait time.

It could very likely be a combination of retooling for rear casting while allocating batteries to semi mass production.

Musk most likely have been trying to figure out the best time to do this and prior to the tax credit is probably the best time. They want to reduce cogs with rear casting so they can reduce price to hit that tax credit maintaining margins while probably want to allocate some of those robots for semi. If m3 line is down for awhile then it's best to scale up semi to use the excess batteries. I'm sure semi interest went through the roof with this new bill.

 

[SN_8]

Yep, the Dawn Project "ad" is running nationally during the Sunday morning news shows days after it was shown that their methodology and results are suspect if not downright fraudulent.

 

[Discoducky]

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AutoPacific - CONSUMERS PICK THEIR MOST-TRUSTED BRANDS FOR DEVELOPING FULLY-AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES MARCH 17, 2022

Where is Waymo (Google) and Cruise (is this Chevrolet?) Seems odd they aren't on the list...and Apple is...

 

[hacer]

I would think, when getting to retirement age, the thing to do would be to liquidate enough to establish a reliable income stream. At that point you can’t really have your entire net worth tied up in a volatile stock, no matter how much you believe in it.

Given your user name, I'm surprised you didn't know the better way is to sell calls for your income stream.

 

[Singuy]

Where is Waymo (Google) and Cruise (is this Chevrolet?) Seems odd they aren't on the list...and Apple is...

Probably a qualification must be that the company produce cars for sale.

 

[bkp_duke]

Yep, the Dawn Project "ad" is running nationally during the Sunday morning news shows days after it was shown that their methodology and results are suspect if not downright fraudulent.

Cause for a lawsuit. No joke, and I'm not an attorney, but if you have been shown something is false (and his conversation with Electrik is in the public space - Twitter), and you STILL proceed with a smear campaign, that seems pretty cut and dry to me.

Tesla needs to go after these guys hard core, show them that there are large financial consequences to libel.

 

[Drax7]

Great all-encompassing post. I am mystified when people speak of "cashing out" - like, to do what with the money? Wallow in it like Scrooge McDuck in his vault? Where will you keep it once you take it out of TSLA? I'm all in, because I can't think of a better place to put it, that would have to be a place with high growth that is immune to force majeure effects - is there even such a place?

Consider Argentinian warehouses as an alternative.

 

[mongo]

Does anyone have a resource explaining the vehicle requirements for an electric semi truck under the Inflation Reduction Act?

I'm especially interested to know if the Tesla Semi will be under the same critical mineral requirements as light duty vehicles.

As I read it, commercial is a separate section and, in the case of semi, only leans on 30D(d)(1)(C & D) for qualification and there is no assembly nor mineral requirements for Semi included from 30D(b).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Cause for a lawsuit. No joke, and I'm not an attorney, but if you have been shown something is false (and his conversation with Electrik is in the public space - Twitter), and you STILL proceed with a smear campaign, that seems pretty cut and dry to me.

Tesla needs to go after these guys hard core, show them that there are large financial consequences to libel.

My guess is he's fishing for data (Edit: or even more headlines) and want's someone to sue him, (it's only money).
Too bad SNL isn't on. Even I could write a good skit on this guy and set the story straight for many.

 

[geometro]

Everyone's number will vary wildly based on age, debt, kids, location, lifestyle, and other factors. For me, at age 46 with a wife and two kids in a pretty expensive part of the country, the number was ~$10 million. So earlier this year when I hit my number, and coincidentally my job suddenly turned extremely sour, I said goodbye. Set up a 72T SEPP, since the bulk of my savings were in an IRA. It's been great so far. I've been focusing on personal projects I had backburnered for years, and I suddenly have way more freedom to spend time with the kids and travel spontaneously. No complaints so far.

I definitely feel like this freedom today, while i'm young and healthy and energetic, and while my kids are living here under my roof, is incredibly valuable to me - more valuable than the same freedom would be at 65, with my kids likely busy with families of their own.

If you don’t mind me asking… do you consider the number to be net worth or “liquid” net worth (excluding home equity)?

 

[The Accountant]

I like his logic !

 

[geometro]

Genesis Showdown: A Gas G80 vs. Its Electric Twin

Built on the same scalable platform, the internal-combustion and all-electric versions of Genesis’s luxury sedan appear nearly identical. Is such twinning a winning strategy?

www.wsj.com

The main takeaway for me here is that the Genesis G80 is built on the exact same platform whether gas or BEV to ’save money and development costs.’

Rooting for the BEV model to sell well, but when are OEMs going to learn you can’t have your cake and eat it too? Design BEVs independently from the ground up or you will pay the consequences.

I actually think Hyundai / Kia has a better chance than Honda/ Toyota at this point. I see them doing well in the space bc they are actually trying!

 

[Stretch2727]

To support the many that have mentioned the M3 LR cells could be re-purposed for the semi, ...

Below paragraph from the 8K mention that the CyberTruck is being planned for production, but no mention of Semi here. The single mention of Semi elsewhere, along with the RoboTaxi, is that they are in Development Status. The IRAct likely changed the economics to have Tesla prioritizing the semi over the CT, and hence needs the 2170s, at least in the short term until the 4680 production ramp up.
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My guess is the strategy is to hold back M3 LR production (but still just barely within the promised dates of the existing M3 LR orders) because $profit/cell is likely the lowest for that model. and divert cells to the semi, which likely have the highest long term benefit to Tesla to be among the leaders for the first mover advantage.

Doubtful this is to support the Semi. The Model 3 LR likely has good margins.

You have to keep in mind you can build approximately 13 LR Model 3 with the battery capacity need for Semi.

This is $780K revenue versus $200K for the semi. This would be giving up a lot of margin/revenue if you divert Model 3 batteries to Semi.

I think it is just like Elon's says, the wait list is too long. He has been hinting at stopping orders for a while.

At the same time I think you may see some product reconfiguration when they reintroduce to take advantage of the tax credit.

 

[hobbes]

I'm not sure why all the speculation about Model 3 LR production, Elon says the wait list is too long and they are trying to increase production. As Elon says you don't need to read between the lines just read the lines.

While I generally agree there are different ways to increase production - moving to castings could increase production mid-term but they´d have to rebuild the lines which would decrease production short term..

 

[Singuy]

Doubtful this is to support the Semi. The Model 3 LR likely has good margins.

You have to keep in mind you can build approximately 13 LR Model 3 with the battery capacity need for Semi.

This is $780K revenue versus $200K for the semi. This would be giving up a lot of margin/revenue if you divert Model 3 batteries to Semi.

I think it is just like Elon's says, the wait list is too long. He has been hinting at stopping orders for a while.

At the same time I think you may see some product reconfiguration when they reintroduce to take advantage of the tax credit.

The only reason why I am even talking about semi is because production have been pulled forward. During the q4 2021 earnings call, which happened in 2022, Musk said "hopefully to start semi production next year" and talks about how potentially they will make less cars if they were to add more products. I feel like the tax bill have changed this plan and moved the schedule of semi forward which is causing a few things to shift.

 

[JRP3]

While I generally agree there are different ways to increase production - moving to castings could increase production mid-term but they´d have to rebuild the lines which would decrease production short term..

Why not start Model 3 production in Austin?

 

[hobbes]

Why not start Model 3 production in Austin?

Maybe stamping constraints or other parts specific to 3 that would be harder to set up new than change the old lines to castings? (Just playing devil´s adovocate, don´t have a strong opinion here)

 

[Prunesquallor]

First Soros . . . .then Natixis . . . getting ready for launch.

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So, how do these megaboys think? Are they looking for a quick 30-40% bump from split and/or credit rating increase, and then cash out? Or do they finally see what you’ve been pounding into our heads the last six months?

 

[Big Time]

Well some of us have been putting off major purchases like ya know a home, for many years . Like 7+ years now . I’ll likely cash out half of my shares when TSLA reaches a 2.5 trillion valuation. There’s plenty to do/buy with that 50% cash out.

I’m with you. Been impatiently waiting since 2015! We are almost there friend! But if we sink back to $600, you wanna be roommates? I don’t do the dishes. I smell, and I have ten(10) cats.

Shocking! I don't think you ever told us you were homeless! My condolences.

You know you can get a loan for things like that?

Hey now!!! Not a laughing matter! I went to 4 different lenders, including my bank that I’ve banked with since 1994, to get a mortgage on a 200,000 dollar home, showing my Tesla shares as assets and enough cash in the bank for a 10%+ down payment in 2020 and was DENIED due to my taxable income being too low(selling my body for shares only makes so much)

It’s funny since then things have REALLY improved for me. Between 2015-2020 I was hellbent on not paying the banks a cent for my home, and I almost caved. If not for their greed & indecency I would be paying them interest right now, instead I’m back on the “Not a cent from me” bandwagon. Plus I get 2% cash back on every transaction on my CC.

I will bankrupt Wells Fargo myself.

 

[hobbes]

Boxes that are likely filled with battery packs (judging from their size) seen in Tobi Lindh´s latest drone video from Giga Berlin - but can´t tell if they are BYD blade or regular 2170 packs from Giga Shanghai that they have been using. Only thing pointing to new packs is that I don´t remember seeing boxes like this outside before so something has changed.. But could also be storage has not yet been sorted out for increase production capacity after factory upgrade.

EDIT: Also note there appear to be newly built cars rolling out of the factory, to a supercharger, and loaded on trucks on a Saturday.