Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I would think, when getting to retirement age, the thing to do would be to liquidate enough to establish a reliable income stream. At that point you can’t really have your entire net worth tied up in a volatile stock, no matter how much you believe in it.
As a counter to that thought, I believe you can....if the company you have all your stock in is as transformational as Tesla.

I retired 2 years ago with well over 90% of my net wort invested in TSLA. I sell a few shares as needed to live as I want and help when I can.
Tesla has enabled me to buy my son a M3, pay for his master’s degree, help keep my mother in her home the last several years as her health failed, send my life partner to Europe to see her parents for the first time in several years.

As others have said, even if TSLA were to fall by 2/3rds, I could still live comfortably. (Well, unless I was silly enough to buy a mountain and needed tons of catnip to stay sane)

I would diversify, but in what? As I look around, I see very few places to put money into that are as safe as Tesla.

On another note....the wailing and posting about how Elon selling was "a bad look" or somehow a lie made me just a bit angry.
Even if Elon was not the one person doing the most for humanity, he still has the right to do what he wants when he wants with HIS money.
The fact, he has made many here rich and has almost single-handedly pulled the EV industry to where it is now gives him even more right IMHO.

Hope you all have a good weekend ...good things are coming.
 
I think a lot of well intentioned people started out with a balanced portfolio containing TSLA, but a split or two here, 10x growth there, and now their portfolio is 95% TSLA
That should be the case.

Unfortunately for them, many people have financial advisors who strongly resist even the first TSLA purchase, and then stay insistent with constant advice like 'No one ever went broke taking a profit'.
Plus media FUD has real effect.

Most people can't stand the pressure.
Of course being like that, they can never get back in.
 
I would think, when getting to retirement age, the thing to do would be to liquidate enough to establish a reliable income stream. At that point you can’t really have your entire net worth tied up in a volatile stock, no matter how much you believe in it.
Ummm, Tesla is the exception that proves the rule. 😉
 
Yes, I realize no OEM in the history of mankind has ever stopped taking orders for a vehicle because demand was too high. I’m not even sure it’s happened in the history of mankind for any product. Yet, here we are.

Considering the demand potential, maybe this could have happened to Howard Hughes' 'Cross your heart Bra'

Though, it would be a stretch to classify it as a vehicle
 
Last edited:
Yes, I realize no OEM in the history of mankind has ever stopped taking orders for a vehicle because demand was too high. I’m not even sure it’s happened in the history of mankind for any product. Yet, here we are.


Small supply, but insufficient supply nonetheless.
 
While fun to think about, it makes for a real David vs Goliath situation--and that's what people will see. The fraud will get buried and forgotten.
I disagree as one day, FSD will go wide release and everyone can see that this is pure fraud. I still hear folks talk about the Top Gear episode as fraud. Even though Tesla lost that, time has told that it was pure manipulation and outright fraud. They lost mainly due to the show being an 'entertainment' show rather than a fact based news show.
 
Why not start Model 3 production in Austin?
Because it would be a major undertaking. Either requiring many more robots than were planned, or a version change with casting on the car. Casting is not something you just "drop in and start", it would be a brand new line, requiring a lot of tooling (which has to be ordered).

Plus, there is not floor space planned for the 3 in Austin. It's Y and CT, and Tesla would have to do a major re-work to fit all 3 in (not sure that's even possible).

The "path of least resistance" would be to find ways to speed up the current Fremont lines. The second best option would be to take one line down in Fremont and implement a cast Model 3 there, but this would require ramp time and cause lower production numbers for 6-9 months.
First let me preface this with: I know nothing about manufacturing, but…… Let’s presume that Tesla, while testing a new, cheaper/faster way to make the Y, discovered it could be made at lower cost, lower factory footprint, and higher throughput than the current method for the model 3. Furthermore, the SUV/CUV class is all the rage and Tesla predicts it will likely be the best selling car of all time worldwide. Now, Tesla has this massively cramped, messed up inefficient Fremont factory making SEXY and a big, partially empty Austin factory starting to make Model Y. So the engineers order up lots of new Model Y production equipment (2x, 3x, 4x lines, who knows) only to discover that the lead times are 4-12 months. While waiting, let’s redesign model 3 so that it’s similar to the new Y and have it produced on a dual 3/Y line in Austin with enough capacity to meet current demand. Then, we can completely rebuild sections (or all) of Fremont with these same new, dual 3/Y lines. Fremont is closer to CA/WA/OR/BC & Taiwan, while Austin can supply the remaining US until the 3rd NA factory is online (e.g. Ontario). The endgame is decades out, but it might be financially smarter to destroy/rebuild Fremont with one that is 2x cheaper with 10x throughput (made up numbers), than to continue using it as is. I’m seeing similar things in housing: complete bulldozer destruction to brownfield, followed by rebuild on the same site using today’s techniques, styles, codes. Might be similar on the larger factory scale as well.
 
1660498350323.png
 
First let me preface this with: I know nothing about manufacturing, but…… Let’s presume that Tesla, while testing a new, cheaper/faster way to make the Y, discovered it could be made at lower cost, lower factory footprint, and higher throughput than the current method for the model 3. Furthermore, the SUV/CUV class is all the rage and Tesla predicts it will likely be the best selling car of all time worldwide. Now, Tesla has this massively cramped, messed up inefficient Fremont factory making SEXY and a big, partially empty Austin factory starting to make Model Y. So the engineers order up lots of new Model Y production equipment (2x, 3x, 4x lines, who knows) only to discover that the lead times are 4-12 months. While waiting, let’s redesign model 3 so that it’s similar to the new Y and have it produced on a dual 3/Y line in Austin with enough capacity to meet current demand. Then, we can completely rebuild sections (or all) of Fremont with these same new, dual 3/Y lines. Fremont is closer to CA/WA/OR/BC & Taiwan, while Austin can supply the remaining US until the 3rd NA factory is online (e.g. Ontario). The endgame is decades out, but it might be financially smarter to destroy/rebuild Fremont with one that is 2x cheaper with 10x throughput (made up numbers), than to continue using it as is. I’m seeing similar things in housing: complete bulldozer destruction to brownfield, followed by rebuild on the same site using today’s techniques, styles, codes. Might be similar on the larger factory scale as well.

There are no dual 3/Y combined lines, anywhere. Tesla has separated all of them out, in every facility that produces them, to dedicated lines at this point. I'm told it's more efficient for high-throughput that way. Is what you recommend possible? I guess, but it's not the route that Tesla has chosen.
 
I would think, when getting to retirement age, the thing to do would be to liquidate enough to establish a reliable income stream. At that point you can’t really have your entire net worth tied up in a volatile stock, no matter how much you believe in it.
It's a tricky question.
When you truly believe in something, it's hard to go against the grain by selling. It feels like a betrayal of your belief.

The question for me has been:
Since Tesla doesn't pay a dividend, how can I establish an income stream without selling any?

My solution: Use options' profits to build retirement reserves.
In effect, it's me that I'm trading on, not TSLA.

I realize there is no guarantee. Seems to work so far though.
 
Two thoughts:
The first is that, as you mention, Elon was speaking in terms of the chip and supply issues when projecting timing. It's eight 8 months later and things are looking better.

Second thought is that there is start of production, first salable article, and then volume production. Volume production lags quire a bit so if plan was/ is a somewhat ramped output in 2023, they need to start the lines this year.



On the Cybertruck side, the 9000 ton casting press is moving from IDRA to Austin soon as part of it's line bring up. Semi's more conventional tooling is likely close to ready. Combined with the different certification/ regulation requirements of a Class 8 truck, it could be ready to sell. Musk also had the leaked June 2020 memo calling for Semi volume production push, so, 2 years later, it seems ready when the supply chain is.

Tesla shares surpass $1,000 on Semi truck production memo – TechCrunch
So instead of adding a new M3 line due to demand so insane they had to close the orders (which btw tesla rarely close the ability to order on a production car in the US..tesla has closed orders before on non-production cars), they decided now we have enough chips so let's start semi production early?

Tesla never even closed Model X refresh orders even knowing it's delayed for 6 months and back orders exceeded 1.5 years wait.
 
Last edited:
As a counter to that thought, I believe you can....if the company you have all your stock in is as transformational as Tesla.

I retired 2 years ago with well over 90% of my net wort invested in TSLA. I sell a few shares as needed to live as I want and help when I can.
Tesla has enabled me to buy my son a M3, pay for his master’s degree, help keep my mother in her home the last several years as her health failed, send my life partner to Europe to see her parents for the first time in several years.

As others have said, even if TSLA were to fall by 2/3rds, I could still live comfortably. (Well, unless I was silly enough to buy a mountain and needed tons of catnip to stay sane)

I would diversify, but in what? As I look around, I see very few places to put money into that are as safe as Tesla.

On another note....the wailing and posting about how Elon selling was "a bad look" or somehow a lie made me just a bit angry.
Even if Elon was not the one person doing the most for humanity, he still has the right to do what he wants when he wants with HIS money.
The fact, he has made many here rich and has almost single-handedly pulled the EV industry to where it is now gives him even more right IMHO.

Hope you all have a good weekend ...good things are coming.
OT
I truly understand the hesitation of people not wanting to go ”all in” on any one stock (especially TSLA) due to the uncertainty of what the future holds. I was the same way, dipping my toe into TSLA in 2012 with $10k of my $25k saved for retirement. I had/have no other retirement such as a pension (except for social security that I have not started yet). I tried mutual funds until I realized they were a money looser, took advice of friends who were no more educated than I was on investing and lost my fair share of money in the process.
Took to reading and listening to books to find the “magic“ solution to successful investing and lost again. Talked to ”investment advisors.
It wasn’t until I realized that the only person that had a vested interest in my success was ME that I started to change my strategy.
I had been a member of this board all along and finally realized that unless I GO T OUT OF MY COMFORT ZONE things would not change.
Was it without stress as the size of my investment went up and down (sometimes 2-3 mil +)? Yes, but this board, Steven Mark Ryan and following the company closely have turned the fear and uncertainty into surprise and delight.
YMMV.
This board is the greatest resource for investing of any kind that I have found.
You do need to filter out the “noise” but that is to be expected.
The moderators do a great and thankless job and I do appreciate them!
The world news articles that are linked on this forum are second to none IMHO.
Sorry for the long OT post-back to lurking mode………
 
I’m sure there is not much money to be made in selling things like CCS adapters, but from what I can tell, in the last month there are about 3 new companies selling after market CCS adapters to the North American market out there. Seems to me tesla could have made a few bucks there. And this is not about a chip shortage as they are passive devices. I’m sure they have their reasons but to me it seems obvious that someone was going to fill that void once the tesla version got taken off the market.

Safe weekend travels all.
As a CCS adapter owner, I have to report this is incorrect.
The CCS adapter is an embedded computer system all its own, with firmware that is tasked with mapping from Tesla protocol to the CCS protocol as implemented by different CCS vendors and on different CCS charge station hardware.
At times I have had to update my CCS adapter firmware to successfully charge my Model Y, then days later, have the exact same CCS charger fail to work for me. Why? No idea, but possibly due to its own firmware update?
This is not a simple product, nor is in maintenance-cost free, for the maker OR the user.
This is effectively the diagram:

(CCS Charger) <=> (CCS to Tesla adapter) <=> (Tesla vehicle)
^ ^
(CCS protocol) (Tesla protocol)

And each of the 3 items above is/contains a computer that can and does have its firmware (software) changed over time! I will say that Tesla has the advantage in making their branded adapter reliable in that at least they control the rightmost 2 elements of this diagram, whereas the 3rd part adapter companies constantly have to handle changes to either the left or right side of the diagram.
You would think that one CCS implementation would be the same as another, given that CCS is a standard. Having worked most of my career in computer communications, and having experienced this adapter in a Tesla, I would tell you that the world is more complex than that... and, IMHO, CCS could use a certified interoperability testing program. (If it has one now, it is sorely lacking)...
 
As a CCS adapter owner, I have to report this is incorrect.
The CCS adapter is an embedded computer system all its own, with firmware that is tasked with mapping from Tesla protocol to the CCS protocol as implemented by different CCS vendors and on different CCS charge station hardware.
At times I have had to update my CCS adapter firmware to successfully charge my Model Y, then days later, have the exact same CCS charger fail to work for me. Why?
You are talking about a third-party CCS adapter, likely made by Setec, that takes CCS and emulates the Tesla CHAdeMO adapter.

The official Tesla CCS adapter is a passive pass-through device. (As long as you have a compatible charge port ECU in your car.)
 
You are talking about a third-party CCS adapter, likely made by Setec, that takes CCS and emulates the Tesla CHAdeMO adapter.

The official Tesla CCS adapter is a passive pass-through device. (As long as you have a compatible charge port ECU in your car.)
Thank you! Yes, that is the adapter I have. No wonder the thing is finicky.
Curious why they went that route...
I do have compatible ECU. If it becomes easier to get, I may acquire the Tesla one.