Tesla was at a very different place in the market. I don't think comparing the investment market in 2012 and 2022 is valid. The expectation was that EVs were always going to be a failure and there wasn't a market for them... Tesla proved that very wrong. Very little big money was available to fund in 2013/14/15/16+... now we have not only a ton from names like Amazon, but from investors looking for that 'next Tesla.' They can secondary a number of times and find plenty out there to fund the company as there is a proven winner in the field.
Rivian currently only has a few billion less cash on hand than Tesla does today. At ~15b they basically have the same cash as Tesla did after a $5b raise in Sept 2020. That is an enormous war chest and should fund everything they have at least through 2024. Which is a longer timeline than Tesla had at any point prior to 2020. Rivian is burning cash like it is going out of style and I don't think that is building a very good culture for longer term margins (I despise the Georgia factory plans)... but it gives them a long leash. If at any point in the next 18 months, they can get production ramped and show improvement in margins... they'll be able to sell the bill of goods that they are past the worst and pretty much any stock can handle some secondary offerings.
My back of the napkin math at IPO was that Rivian really needed at least 23b to get ramped and survive... so I think we are in the same realm there. I think they were/are about 5b short and that was prior to the Georgia plans, so I'm more in the 8b short range now. The 8b will have to come from either improvements in FCF in the near term(
), external investment, or a secondary offering (likely a combo)... in this market that is willing to prop up Lucid to a 30b market cap, I don't see how they can't raise 8b if absolutely needed... I mean Nikola is looking at a ~1b offering and finding some traction. That doesn't make them a great investment... but surviving, I think the odds are growing they'll survive.