Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

With this super low volume, today is traditionally the kinda day MM algos would pushdown looking to go for a 900 close tomorrow.

Is there enough buying interest to keep that target at 950 instead? We shall see!

 

[KMCC]

Permabull goalpost move; you cannot state for months that long wait times are bullish and now all of a sudden shortened wait times are healthy.

Shortened wait times in china can be bullish if the reason for the shortend times is a large sudden increase in production so you can have both being bullish

 

[larmor]

If the market closes its eyes it cannot see multiple gigafactories with increasing production rate and output per unit time, and then by not seeing them, they do not exist.

 

[The Accountant]

One more dead bear argument: Stagflation is off the table.

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims show no sign of rising layoffs | Marketwatch

U.S. jobless claims fall to 250,000 and show little sign of surging layoffs

The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits dipped to 250,000 in mid-August and appear to have stabilized after a steady increase during the...

www.marketwatch.com

This appears to be a Goldilocks number. Not too hot . .not too cold.
Initial jobless claims were estimated at 265k and the number came in at 250k.

As someone mentioned earlier:

Too high a number = RECESSION = Bad for stocks​

Too low a number = MORE TIGHTENING BY FED = Bad for stocks​

Coming in at about the Estimate is good for the market.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This appears to be a Goldilocks number. Not too hot . .not too cold.
Initial jobless claims were estimated at 265k and the number came in at 250k.

As someone mentioned earlier:

Too low a number = RECESSION = Bad for stocks​

Too high a number = MORE TIGHTENING BY FED = Bad for stocks​

Coming in at about the Estimate is good for the market.

Yep, so far, so good. Existing home sales (SAAR) + Leading economic indicators data incoming at 10 am ET (11 min from now).

 

[JSML]

Thoughts about the TelsaBot. The most important product for Tesla?

I've been thinking about the business of the TeslaBot and what Tesla should be focused on. To me, there is no better potential platform business than the TeslaBot. The focus would be on developing the capabilities of the bot as an operating system, the generalized visual AI, the sensitivity of the bot's touch and feel, the dexterity of the bot. The specific applications can be left to third party developers who would adapt the bot to cook, to serve, to aid doctors, etc. etc. This is the iPhone business model and there's no reason Tesla should not adapt the same strategy.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'll take it. Notable for the take that Telsa will be the "biggest winner" from the IR act.

 

[AudubonB]

Carry on.

 

[MadScientist23]

Either can be bullish or bearish. It depends on how you see demand and production.

Bullish:

• Long wait times are bullish because demand is really high
• Short wait times are bullish because production is really high

Bearish:

• Long wait times are bearish because production is really low
• Short wait times are bearish because demand is really low

Shortened wait times in china can be bullish if the reason for the shortend times is a large sudden increase in production so you can have both being bullish

What's critical here is the reasoning behind the result. Too many headlines just put results and don't explain the context. With no changes in context a shortened wait time is bearish. With the change that the production capacity just increased in a material amount, the result is bullish. This is the same reason, as a mathematician, I hate when people present % in a headline without any context for how the ratio was gathered. Inputs are the most important backbone of any data or results.

 

[scaesare]

Easier to hit the requirement if you don't have to source massive quantities.

Not so sure. The requirement in the legislation is apparently percentage of minerals by cost. Typically material cost goes down as purchased quantity goes up.

 

[Mengy]

Again, don't argue. There is a world of people on here offering what they think as being fact. Little humility exists.

For those that have not lost a fortune large or small yet, please decide such things for yourself. If you do not know, weigh all sides and be cautious.

View attachment 842249

But this is exactly Starfox's point. Despite more funds investing and increasing revenue, profits, and margins, the stock has still mostly traded flat or worse during this time. We are down 23% for the year despite all of these positive headwinds. For a huge growth stock with massively increasing financials and almost nil debt, this does seem a bit ... odd.

I think this is what Starfox is trying to state.

 

[mongo]

Well, his claims are that it would make "most vehicles immediately ineligible for the incentive" and "Seventy percent of those EVs would immediately become ineligible when the bill passes and none would qualify for the full credit when additional sourcing requirements go into effect"

So it's hard to tell what Tesla's current qualification status may be, even if they are able to change their sourcing mix in the future.. which I suspect they may be agile enough to do. The fact that the mineral percentages are apparently "by value", rather than volume, makes it even more difficult...

The North American final assembly requirement kicked in at signing. This instantly cut out imports.

The 200k phase out doesn't go away until 2023. So Tesla is (still) ineligible until then.

So the currently eligible cars went from non-GM non-Tesla (both capped out) to (non-GM non-Tesla) domestic cars.

Minerals and component requirements kick in when guidance from Secretary of Treasury is released (before 2023). This is the big unknown for future Tesla, particularly dependent on how they define battery.

Credit transfer starts 2024.

Other modifications (income, minimum pack size increase to 7kWh, MSRP, fuel cell) all start 2023.

 

[scaesare]

Correct, but if you only have 1 ton of qualified content you can make x qualifying BEV packs, or ~10x qualifying PHEV packs with it.

But the comment @Knightshade made was in response to my post questioning the assertion @Featsbeyond50 made that "I think only plug in electric hybrids will qualify."

So the wasn't speaking to quantity of qualifying packs a given material can make, but rather if only hybrids would qualify.

 

[The Accountant]

Yep, so far, so good. Existing home sales (SAAR) + Leading economic indicators data incoming at 10 am ET (11 min from now).

The US Leading Index came in a little better than expected -0.4% vs -0.5%.
Notice the improved wording by The Conference Board (the publisher of the index).
They went from "a recession is likely this year" to "could tip into short but mild recession by the end of the year".
I keep seeing signs of a soft landing . . . . .but I've always been an optimist.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hedge funds came online at 10 am to keep TSLA in daily contact with its MA(200). They fantasize about riding the green curve down (it's all they've got right now -- wedgies).

 

[elasalle]

But this is exactly Starfox's point. Despite more funds investing and increasing revenue, profits, and margins, the stock has still mostly traded flat or worse during this time. We are down 23% for the year despite all of these positive headwinds. For a huge growth stock with massively increasing financials and almost nil debt, this does seem a bit ... odd.

I think this is what Starfox is trying to state.

Don’t forget the Elon flush (x2)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hedge funds came online at 10 am to keep TSLA in daily contact with its MA(200). They fantasize about riding the green curve down (it's all they've got right now -- wedgies).

View attachment 842265

Nearly zero volume and they can't even push us below neutral. I'll take it!

 

[damonbrodie]

Don’t forget the Elon flush (x2)

And a war, and a Covid shutdown and a slow 4680 ramp and worries about power in China and China -> Taiwan. Lots of headwinds to keep the lid on a bit.

I like to think of it as the spring is coiling up. Eventually the headwinds pass and there will be pop in the SP - probably as we approach the next P/D date in October.

 

[bkp_duke]

Nearly zero volume and they can't even push us below neutral. I'll take it!

It's because they don't want to. Not that they can't.

 

[Accident]

What's critical here is the reasoning behind the result. Too many headlines just put results and don't explain the context. With no changes in context a shortened wait time is bearish. With the change that the production capacity just increased in a material amount, the result is bullish. This is the same reason, as a mathematician, I hate when people present % in a headline without any context for how the ratio was gathered. Inputs are the most important backbone of any data or results.

Additionally, with Berlin now ramping up, Shanghai can now prioritize the Chinese market and reduce local wait times.