I take Elon's words as meaning YES we will see a physical Optimus prototype, and MAYBE it will be functioning as well.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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I take Elon's words as meaning YES we will see a physical Optimus prototype, and MAYBE it will be functioning as well.
JupiterMan
Active Member
I'm suspicious this is the actual reason why.
My speculation:
30th September is coincidentally the last day of Q3, and by the time AI Day 2.0 airs, the end quarter delivery push will be complete.
I suspect that HW4 will have started shipping by 30th September on deliveries going forward and the timing here is to avoid Osborne effect.
Similar happened with Autonomy day in 2019.... HW3 had just started shipping already by the time that event came round
Still expect Optimus preview, but I suspect that is not the main reason at play here.
Speculation ends.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Right, and maybe we won’t see a working prototype, but PezPunk was saying that nothing approaching a functional prototype exists and the whole idea is currently “pure fantasy”.
Elon is admittedly aggressively optimistic about timelines, but Tesla is well over a year (at least) into developing Optimus and as recently as June 2nd he said that we may see a working prototype. If we assume he wasn’t just lying, then that either means the prototype was somewhat close to functional, or it means that he somehow expected a gigantic leap forward in progress in four months despite over a year of getting nowhere but fantasy. I think the first scenario is a lot more likely.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
That's pretty cynical, @Pezpunk. Of course it's speculative.
If anybody in the world is good at imagining the art of the possible, and turning 'fantasy' into 'reality', it's Elon Musk ("we specialize at converting the impossible to late”). You have to imagine he's got these kinds of ideas in his head too, right? He's not only imagining the technical challenges of a humanoid robot, he's imagining its potential impact on new markets, on sustainability, and society at large. This in line with all his past activity.
@JSML and @Mengy are merely sharing their speculations on how that might manifest. Elon may not be thinking about the impact on TSLA SP, but we all do that to some extent on this forum, it's par for the course. You are free to ignore, no need to insult them IMO.
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CATL, along with other Tesla suppliers, shut down Sichuan facilities for six days
To maintain power for residents, Sichuan Province is restricting industrial use of electricity from August 15 to August 20.
driveteslacanada.ca
James Douma did a great interview on his thoughts about Optimus. Interestingly, he doesn't think the image that was shown during the shareholder meeting, of the stainless steel robot hands, is real in any way.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Exactly. Those charts may look similar, but plot them as percent change. I did YTD, where SPY is outperforming TSLA (underperforming less?) handily.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
BTW, everyone should fully expect that anything they DO show "working" that day will be directly compared to the 2016 FSD video Tesla showed by the Q crowd.
And 10x that if it's shown as a video rather than a live demo.
damonbrodie
Member
James did a great job being excited but yet tempering the expectations. It is going to be YEARS before the bot is something that will be a saleable product. I think it will be iterated on for years inside of Tesla.
Was the take town video of Musk by William Shatner on the Daily Show the other night not mentioned here? While it skewers Musk and plays fast and loose with facts, it's hilarious in parts. 9 minutes of time I won't get back. But with that audience not sure it hurts in the end. It will reinforce the haters views if they stayed up late enough to watch it or streamed it like I did. But younger folks may find him even more interesting.
Tesla owners already know the big savings besides protecting the environment and now the Police proved it to themselves.
www.tesmanian.com
Tesla Model 3 Proved Much More Economical than Expected, Says Bridgewater Police Service in Canada
Tesla Model 3 of the Bridgewater Police Service, which recently entered service, was much more economical than expected. The car performs two full shifts between charges, and the cost of charging it for one month is equal to the cost of refueling a gasoline car for three days.
www.tesmanian.com
damonbrodie
Member
It will be exactly like FSD. The difference between AAPL and TSLA is that TSLA shows the inside view from product reveal until product release. AAPL just shows off the final product.
As with everything that both AAPL and TSLA have sold it takes (many) years to iterate them internally before they are are ready for the market. Don't be fooled by the "they will use the almost ready FSD to have a working robot right away". Its exciting to see these new product ideas. We have to be patient while the now go off and make them real.
Drumheller
Active Member
This thread has a tendency to hype every upcoming Tesla event until expectations are well beyond anything Tesla or Elon hinted at.
By Sept 29th, we will be discussing how a single Optimus, during the event, will build a model Y from a vat of ore and raw plastic, drive it to the customer's home, wash it, deliver it, then run back to the factory.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
TSLA has moderately outperformed its beta of 2. Stocks with a beta greater than 1 are by definition expected to have amplified reactions to macro market movements, such that they tend to underperform in bear markets and overperform in bull markets.
SPY is down 10% so the baseline expectation would be TSLA being down 20%, but TSLA is actually down only 13%.
I think TSLA is ludicrously undervalued but it looks like the market might not figure that out until the next few quarters of earnings blow away expectations.
On the plus side, someone on Twitter pointed out that Shatner has defended Musk in the past.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Remember that correlation does not equal causation.
It's not the split that makes stocks out-perform, it's that stocks that split are of companies that are outperforming. Companies that are not outperforming don't announce splits and therefore have lower appreciation, on average. A company is most likely to split when the Board realizes there is some good near-term growth coming, and the stock will be entering a new trading range. In the case of Tesla it could be argued that the full accounting of all the shares that is happening because of the split can add some extra buying pressure (to cover all the synthetic shares). However, not even this adds long-term value to the company (even if it does affect when that value is realized).
Just a general observation that is related and not directed specifically towards @henchman24:
I'm surprised and disappointed with the number of people who focus more on instantaneous share prices over the fundamentals of the company, things that actually make the company more valuable. That's because individual investors make the highest returns when they focus on capturing the long-term growth of a company and how it gets there is mostly inconsequential.
CFRA REITERATES STRONG BUY RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF TESLA INC.
11:13 am ET August 18, 2022 (CFRA)We lift our 12-month price target to $1,245 from $1,125, based on a '24 P/E of 60x. We raise our adjusted EPS estimates to $12.45 from $11.90 for '22, to $17.25 from $16.20 for '23, and to $20.75 from $18.75 for '24. The signing of the Inflation Reduction Act was the equivalent of "Christmas in August" for Elon Musk & Co., as we peg TSLA as the biggest winner from the new law, as most versions of the industry's two bestselling EVs (Tesla's Model Y and Model 3) become eligible for the $7,500 federal EV tax credit effective January 1, 2023. Previously, all Tesla vehicles had phased out of tax credit eligibility after hitting the 200K units per manufacturer cap. Moreover, the new law significantly alleviates concerns about EV competition, as roughly 70% of the 72 EV models currently for sale in the U.S. suddenly became ineligible for the tax credit under the new law. We reiterate our top pick status on TSLA and will update our estimates and target following the 3-for-1 stock split set to take effect on August 25.
Apple's iPhone will literally look like a child's toy phone next to the TeslaBot. When Elon's vision comes true for the Bot it will dwarf the iPhone in every respect. Most definitely it'll be the most important Tesla product post 2030.
So I’ll be able to take and place calls on my TeslaBot? Wow it’ll be like … nothing I’ve ever seen!
Let's just hope the presentation doesn't go in the opposite direction like the Cybertruck armored windows fiasco with Optimus ripping off both of Elon's arms as he tries to demonstrate a simple task of shaking hands.
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