Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Natural gas prices in Europe are shooting up specifically to reduce demand, they won't then turn around and subsidize it for industry and drive demand back up. Germany needs to stockpile natural gas for little things like preventing its citizens from losing heat and freezing during the winter, industrial uses will take a back seat to building inventories for residential heating during the cold months.

High prices are one powerful tool for reducing consumption and that's entirely the point. If they do end up getting enough gas into storage, supply-demand dynamics will balance, prices will come down, and subsidizing wouldn't be necessary.

Yep.

Germany is also likely going to have some of the highest energy prices in the world for the foreseeable future. Pressure on Russian production will continue for multiple reasons. Germany’s wind and solar resources are also among the worst of any advanced economy and their regulatory burden among the highest.

 

[BornToFly]

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Yet again....

"Ok kids. Today in art class we want you to draw the car of the future. Coolest drawing gets a prize..."

 

[Prunesquallor]

Third shift at Berlin by December.

Tesla planning to add third shift at Giga Berlin in December [Update]

Giga Berlin has only been open since March, but before the year is out Tesla is planning to add a third shift to the factory, bringing production up to a full 24 hours per day. […]

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yep.

Germany is also likely going to have some of the highest energy prices in the world for the foreseeable future. Pressure on Russian production will continue for multiple reasons. Germany’s wind and solar resources are also among the worst of any advanced economy and their regulatory burden among the highest.

Germany is 30% wind and about 12% solar. They've committed to 100% renewables within 8 years.

Interconnection of new projects big and small is many times quicker than in the US.

It continually surprises me people on a Tesla board don't see the energy oversupply looming. Russian products aren't going anywhere. Crude demand has peaked. It's one winter, not the end of days.

 

[ToTheStars]

But there are more Puts at 900 than Calls:
View attachment 842622
Based on the Open Interest chart, closing around 910 would be more beneficial to MMs.

I thought the maximum pain was defined as the number where option writers (the market makers) lose the least amount of money.
Wouldn't that be 875 then?

 

[Ocelot]

Optimus doesn't need to make a profit: all it needs to do is cut COGS in Tesla's factories (to start).

You'll know when 'bot is profitable when the factory DOESN'T shut down due to a pandemic wave.

As of right now, Optimus is vapourware.

If another company dressed a human up and announced this, and said “the competition is coming” they would be laughed at.

Go rewatch cybertruck presentation. “ available 2019!”.

It will happen, but it’s really anyones guess how many years away it is.

 

[Ogre]

Each 20 million EVs drops oil use by about 1%. Those same 20 million don't drop oil use by another 1% the next year.

To keep dropping oil use by 1% each year you have to displace 20 million more ICE cars with another 20 million new EVs.

1% per year isn't fast enough. Tesla can't do this alone.

A small percentage of cars produce a disproportionate percentage of emissions. The impact is going to be much faster than you estimate because cars which are used most will be the first to be replaced because to cost to operate an EV is so much lower. You already see this as Uber and Lyft drivers gravitate towards Teslas. High mileage commuters will also migrate to EVs quickly.

That Corvette which is parked in your garage counts as one of those 1 billion automobiles, but uses 1/100th the amount of fuel as most daily drivers. You don’t need to remove half a billion cars from the road to reduce emissions by 50%. Removing the 10% heaviest emitters will likely reduce carbon by 50% or more.

This is why the Tesla Semi, Cybertruck, and Robotaxi are so important.

 

[Ogre]

As of right now, Optimus is vapourware.

No.

Optimus is an unscheduled, unreleased product. “Vaporware” is a product which is way past due and has missed multiple deadlines. Cybertruck is arguably “Vaporware”… but only barely.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Seems like it's cooked, let's have a taste.

 

[henchman24]

Market taking the statements by the Fed as 75bps is in play for Sept and bears are hitting hard (they got their fuel). Pushed the Nasdaq down a level below 150MA. If that can be recaptured, that would be a positive on a negative day.

 

[Zero CO2]

picked up 10 @ $880.41 could not resist

 

[Drezil]

Germany is 30% wind and about 12% solar. They've committed to 100% renewables within 8 years.

Talk just about energy being commited to 100% renewabes ..

Very much is still dependend on (cheap) gas. around 80% or so go to industry instead of heating.

And at the moment the gas power-plants run at maximum capacity to help france and the swiss.. energy-exports to those contries 6-fold in the last moths. France because they had to shut of half of all their reactors due to things found in the containment not belonging there and most others an low load because the rivers are too hot to cool any heavier operation (france does 80% of its energy with nuclear - and are very heavily against new powerlines to cheap spain solar to protect their industry).
The swiss need energy because they make most of it with hydro, but the reservoirs with dams are petty much empty due to the heat and not enough rain.

Also we COULD import russian gas at any time over nord-stream 2 .. but due to EU-regulations we would have to pay spot-market-prices. Any gas over NS1 would not fall under that regulation (and this is the one russia only delivers the contractual minimum .. Uniper would LOVE to buy the maximum cheap there & sell it directly (or the energy generated by burning it))...

If you look behind the curtain, there is soo much rotten & most "news" fell more like theater ..

 

[Gigapress]

Easy peasy, Japanesy: MMs playing hot potato with their naked shorts. How many days apart are the FTD peaks? And what is the SEC-mandated reporting period for FTDs?

Spoiler: Ah so...

Kabuki!

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What I’m not understanding is why the failure-to-deliver would be almost exactly 600K shares for each of those peaks in close succession. Are you saying somehow the market makers were passing around the same batch of 600K shares worth of naked shorts they didn’t want to cover between each other so that none of them would get in trouble individually?

 

[ZachF]

Germany is 30% wind and about 12% solar. They've committed to 100% renewables within 8 years.

Interconnection of new projects big and small is many times quicker than in the US.

It continually surprises me people on a Tesla board don't see the energy oversupply looming. Russian products aren't going anywhere. Crude demand has peaked. It's one winter, not the end of days.

Germany solar generation is growing slower than just about everyone.

Hell, the US is on pace to add an entire Germany worth of solar generation just this year. Texas alone will probably out produce Germany in wind and solar in a year or two, at the rate they’re growing.

(Solar generation, source BP)

Germany will get to 100% renewables someday, but not in 8 years, and not without importing lots of solar from the south or paying a fortune because of poor local resources. Capacity factor for solar in Germany is about 9% producing almost nothing in December (when consumption peaks) compared to 23% in the US.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TAG! with yer middle-BB:

Hard to say that was unexpected.

 

[thesmokingman]

Woke up late today, took a look at my watch list, probably should have just gone back to sleep lol.

Right after I post that, what do I see, is that a cup handle forming? Oh let it be...

 

[Chenkers]

I thought the maximum pain was defined as the number where option writers (the market makers) lose the least amount of money.
Wouldn't that be 875 then?

Not necessarily. It depends on what options are hedged and to what extent. The max pain number calculates the balance point of all options included in the open interest. Of these, those that are further out of the money are likely to be fully hedged whereas those close to the money may not be. We have no real way of knowing as the options market is not transparent. However we can often observe that the market makers preferred expiration target is often around where there is a balance point between Put and Call walls, which doesn't always align with the actual max pain number. To complicate things further there are multiple market makers plus other big players that all have different exposure with varying targets and priorities.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If you look behind the curtain, there is soo much rotten & most "news" feels more like theatre...

Paging @ThisStockGood for the meme.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Germany solar generation is growing slower than just about everyone.

In December 2011 Germany installed >3GW of solar, more than the US installed in all of 2012.

When they want to move, they do. When they say 2030, I wouldn't bet against it.

 

[ZsoZso]

Not necessarily. It depends on what options are hedged and to what extent. The max pain number calculates the balance point of all options included in the open interest. Of these, those that are further out of the money are likely to be fully hedged whereas those close to the money may not be. We have no real way of knowing as the options market is not transparent. However we can often observe that the market makers preferred expiration target is often around where there is a balance point between Put and Call walls, which doesn't always align with the actual max pain number. To complicate things further there are multiple market makers plus other big players that all have different exposure with varying targets and priorities.

Good explanation, just a minor correction: I think you meant to say "further in the money". Those that are far out of the money will definitely expire worthless, therefore can be ignored by the MMs, i.e. they do not play a role in influencing the manipulation on the expiry day.