Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1561362640261226499

Well…. That’s

Week-end OFF TOPIC
the sweet aspect for Cyber(nota)truck "reservation holders" is that Tesla actually told us that we could "lock-in" the $7,000 price for FSD. So even when the final price of the Cyber(nota)truck is given we will have benefited by doing what we did.

And if the rumor on YouTube can be believed about the 2 motor version of the Cyber(nota)truck being the first ones delivered because there won't be enough of the carbon fiber-wrapped motors for a long time Then my plan to buy one of each variation is going to reap a reward (And just for a total of $300).
At the time I did that I did not have enough money to buy all three vehicles, which has since changed. I figured I could buy the one motor even if TSLA didn't take off, and I figured if the stock went up I could buy the two motor (that was my "hope" goal, and really the most sensible), so another one hundred bucks.
And then why not dream? I put a hundred bucks down on a 3 motor (which is an easy purchase now).

But I also used my ant brain, and if I know anything it is that time messes up the plans of humans. So I thought something unforeseeable would happen and it would be best to have all the options open. 1 motor 2 motor 3 motor. I have it covered.
And the news this weekend is that the 2 motor will be the first model built because of a lack of carbon fiber wrapped motors. And the first half-million out of the plant will be 2 motor versions.

The only problem? There is too much time left between now and production.

 

[MP3Mike]

Not quite everyone, all I get above EAP is stopping for red lights and a chime telling me to manually start again when they go green!

Yes, at that time anyone that wants it can get it. Of course they would have to pay for it if they hadn't already.

 

[lafrisbee]

If you are blind, or handicapped, or elderly and not able to drive, this is a no brainer decision...to the opposite.

Dan

LAZY..you left out the biggest one...LLLLAAAZZZYYYY
And another one....those amongst you that have episodes of undiagnosable Road Rage.
I fit in both those groups, and would especially love to no longer have to deal with the stupid idiots (some of which qualify as "Elderly" or "handicapped". Can we say "handicapped"? Sorry.)

 

[Dave EV]

The expectation that FSD should transfer indefinitely is unrealistic and inconsistent with the way software is sold. Software is not a physical thing which is complete and then free forever. The idea that you can buy it and get free updates forever transferring it from car to car doesn't work.

Tesla is constantly updating and upgrading FSD they need a way of limiting that upgrade cycle. For most software this is captured with limited lifetime hardware which supports it. When you bought Windows 3.1, you didn't expect to get Windows 11 for free did you?

I do agree that some early adopters got a bit of the short end on this and would love to see Tesla throw down some discounts on FSD when it's mature to reward them. But commensurate with what they spent. For example: Someone who paid $6,000 for FSD on a car where the lease expired might get a $3,000 credit towards the final version at some future date.

If you bought a car with FSD 2-3 years ago for $6,000 there is a solid chance you'll see that returned to you in your resale value as the price of FSD continues to climb.

I agree that it's not realistic to expect a lifetime of FSD for the price, but as others have mentioned, there's lots of middle ground there that is reasonable - a certain amount of time for a no-fee transfer, and then perhaps a one-time transfer fee or something.

Get a better score!

With the current FSD release, the score mostly didn't matter - you needed only like 92 or better to get it, but there was other unknown criteria that also determined your eligibility, which was eventually determined to be 100+ miles spent on auto-steer in the last 30 days or so. Then they capped the number of people, so you still can't get it.

That is the crux of the problem. I have a 2018 Model 3 with FSD and I am not even in the beta program.
The car is 4 years old and it is unclear whether it will have officially released (non-beta) FSD before its old enough to be replaced.

There should be some sort of priority given to how long people have paid for FSD. Seeing someone subscribe to FSD for a month and get into beta stings and does not provide good customer relations.

 

[Paul_SF]

Week-end OFF TOPIC
the sweet aspect for Cyber(nota)truck "reservation holders" is that Tesla actually told us that we could "lock-in" the $7,000 price for FSD. So even when the final price of the Cyber(nota)truck is given we will have benefited by doing what we did.

And if the rumor on YouTube can be believed about the 2 motor version of the Cyber(nota)truck being the first ones delivered because there won't be enough of the carbon fiber-wrapped motors for a long time Then my plan to buy one of each variation is going to reap a reward (And just for a total of $300).
At the time I did that I did not have enough money to buy all three vehicles, which has since changed. I figured I could buy the one motor even if TSLA didn't take off, and I figured if the stock went up I could buy the two motor (that was my "hope" goal, and really the most sensible), so another one hundred bucks.
And then why not dream? I put a hundred bucks down on a 3 motor (which is an easy purchase now).

But I also used my ant brain, and if I know anything it is that time messes up the plans of humans. So I thought something unforeseeable would happen and it would be best to have all the options open. 1 motor 2 motor 3 motor. I have it covered.
And the news this weekend is that the 2 motor will be the first model built because of a lack of carbon fiber wrapped motors. And the first half-million out of the plant will be 2 motor versions.

The only problem? There is too much time left between now and production.

Was just thinking about that also, is the FSD price at the time of reservation really going to be honored?

That would be amazing, for the reservation holders and for Tesla. All Cybertrucks will be sold with FSD, it makes no sense not to, at $7&8k.

 

[MABMAB]

I agree that it's not realistic to expect a lifetime of FSD for the price, but as others have mentioned, there's lots of middle ground there that is reasonable - a certain amount of time for a no-fee transfer, and then perhaps a one-time transfer fee or something.



With the current FSD release, the score mostly didn't matter - you needed only like 92 or better to get it, but there was other unknown criteria that also determined your eligibility, which was eventually determined to be 100+ miles spent on auto-steer in the last 30 days or so. Then they capped the number of people, so you still can't get it.


There should be some sort of priority given to how long people have paid for FSD. Seeing someone subscribe to FSD for a month and get into beta stings and does not provide good customer relations.

Comparison is the thief of joy.

100 miles known to me for a long time. Was not unknown.

Did they cap? Or maybe just limit it to the number of cars they wanted to handle data from?

 

[MP3Mike]

Was just thinking about that also, is the FSD price at the time of reservation really going to be honored?

That would be amazing, for the reservation holders and for Tesla. All Cybertrucks will be sold with FSD, it makes no sense not to, at $7&8k.

Only for people that selected FSD with their reservation. (Not everyone did.)

 

[Paul_SF]

Only for people that selected FSD with their reservation. (Not everyone did.)

The ones that didn’t must feel pretty bad right now then. I did, and definitely getting it.

 

[Electroman]

After the last split my share count increased but TDAmeritrade was briefly still using the pre split price

Thats is when you should have sold and bought it again the next day for a cool 300% profit..

 

[Ogre]

I agree that it's not realistic to expect a lifetime of FSD for the price, but as others have mentioned, there's lots of middle ground there that is reasonable - a certain amount of time for a no-fee transfer, and then perhaps a one-time transfer fee or something.

One of which I mentioned!

The ones that didn’t must feel pretty bad right now then. I did, and definitely getting it.

I do!

Except later I got a second reservation and included it. So I may end up with FSD at $10,000. My thinking was the second truck would come much later when FSD was more likely to be mature. I should have added to both though since I could have opted out at purchase.

 

[WolfHero]

That all depends on how much faith you have that FSD will be solved. If you trust Elon and think FSD will be solved soon and you think a functional FSD is worth you while than jump on it now. Else you will regret having to pay so much more.

I think the fact that Elon is increasing the prices continuously is a clear sign that he has ultimate faith that a functional FSD is happening very soon.

Or, you could put that money in TSLA now and I am confident pace of it's growth will be faster than FSD cost does. *Wink*

 

[xhawk101]

That is the crux of the problem. I have a 2018 Model 3 with FSD and I am not even in the beta program.
The car is 4 years old and it is unclear whether it will have officially released (non-beta) FSD before its old enough to be replaced.

Ditto here too 2018 M3P with FSD beta... Would consider upgrading but it kind of makes me want to hold onto it.

 

[Tronguy]

How can you increase the price to $15k, when people who paid for it more than a year ago still can't get it?

This is not a new model. People buy pre-construction houses all the time. One gets such a house for a discount.

FSD, the full version, is a work in progress. What you're paying for: Some of what one gets now (traffic light recognition, lane changes, etc.), and some of which is for stuff you're going to get later. Just like for the aforementioned house.

Elon and Tesla have been very clear: When the absolutely full version of FSD is available, it's going to cost a lot more. Just like the house.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Reading some of these comments, sometimes I think I am the only one that sees FSD as more than just a fun toy to show off to your friends and impress your neighbors. This thing is life changing. It will open up mobility to huge portions of the population that have had their independence taken from them. It will give back to them the dignity they have lost for whatever reason by foring them to rely on others for their transportation needs.
I have been saying for years that when this technology reaches true level 5 functionality, it will be literally priceless to those that would be homebound without it. We should be rejoicing that it is coming to fruition, not bemoaning the price being asked for it. It will literally be worth at least as much as the car it is in to those that, without it, the car is literally a useless pile of metal.

Dan

 

[Paul_SF]

Reading some of these comments, sometimes I think I am the only one that sees FSD as more than just a fun toy to show off to your friends and impress your neighbors. This thing is life changing. It will open up mobility to huge portions of the population that have had their independence taken from them. It will give back to them the dignity they have lost for whatever reason by foring them to rely on others for their transportation needs.
I have been saying for years that when this technology reaches true level 5 functionality, it will be literally priceless to those that would be homebound without it. We should be rejoicing that it is coming to fruition, not bemoaning the price being asked for it. It will literally be worth at least as much as the car it is in to those that, without it, the car is literally a useless pile of metal.

Dan

Yeah, exactly what Elon said and some people won’t believe it until it happens.

“At SpaceX(and Tesla I’d say) we specialize at converting the impossible to late”- Elon Musk

https://twitter.com/x/status/1450868052040507392

 

[BioSehnsucht]

The whole "biggest asset value increase" with FSD thing only applies to people who want to let their car drive around without them, which lets be realistic isn't most Tesla owners.

I bought FSD when it was discounted a few years ago as an add-on to my EAP because I am hoping to some day not have nag during TACC w/ lane keeping (aka regular autopilot). NoAP on highways would be nice for road trips but just a perk, and I have almost zero use case for FSD on city streets, even if it was 100% functional all the time.

 

[ggies07]

The whole "biggest asset value increase" with FSD thing only applies to people who want to let their car drive around without them, which lets be realistic isn't most Tesla owners.

I bought FSD when it was discounted a few years ago as an add-on to my EAP because I am hoping to some day not have nag during TACC w/ lane keeping (aka regular autopilot). NoAP on highways would be nice for road trips but just a perk, and I have almost zero use case for FSD on city streets, even if it was 100% functional all the time.

I don't know man, if it really all works one day and somehow I lose my job in the future, I would put my car in the network in a heart beat.

 

[Paul_SF]

The whole "biggest asset value increase" with FSD thing only applies to people who want to let their car drive around without them, which lets be realistic isn't most Tesla owners.

I bought FSD when it was discounted a few years ago as an add-on to my EAP because I am hoping to some day not have nag during TACC w/ lane keeping (aka regular autopilot). NoAP on highways would be nice for road trips but just a perk, and I have almost zero use case for FSD on city streets, even if it was 100% functional all the time.

“Most Tesla owners” now, from the 1st 3million cars ever made. Correct? Do you think this will stay like this, when there will be 100mill and beyond Teslas on the road? I doubt it and I believe Elon is right. Late, but right.

 

[Captkerosene]

I have issue with this Twitter account, in terms of some of the things he tweets, but this tweet really hits to the point

https://twitter.com/x/status/1561400969799147520

People complaining about 15k FSD (3k price increase) while legacy auto dealership do mark up's that make FSD's price seem like a bargain. The lack of context among some people is funny.

Why would anyone care about how the price of FSD relates to the incomes of other parts of the world? There's plenty of of items that are worth more than a small fortune to other parts of the world. Who cares what FSD price relates to Korea or Italy

Rather silly comparison if ya ask me

It's pricey for FSD. It's wildly underpriced for full autonomy. Since full autonomy is not very close, why not sell FSD for a much lower price and then hit us up again when FA is ready? Or, are we already going to be charged again for full autonomy? (I'm on my third FSD license and never use it. Only bought it because I thought that it would become full autonomy some day and very valuable.)

 

[MC3OZ]

Reading some of these comments, sometimes I think I am the only one that sees FSD as more than just a fun toy to show off to your friends and impress your neighbors. This thing is life changing. It will open up mobility to huge portions of the population that have had their independence taken from them. It will give back to them the dignity they have lost for whatever reason by foring them to rely on others for their transportation needs.
I have been saying for years that when this technology reaches true level 5 functionality, it will be literally priceless to those that would be homebound without it. We should be rejoicing that it is coming to fruition, not bemoaning the price being asked for it. It will literally be worth at least as much as the car it is in to those that, without it, the car is literally a useless pile of metal.

Dan

It think it terms of what a working Robotaxi is worth.

Paying $20,000 for FSD is IMO the same as paying a Uber driver $7 per day, my guess is that not many Uber drivers want to work for $7 per day. ($200 / Month)

For personal use, loyal customers and early adopters there should be additional discounts and additional options, hopefully that will come.

But I think Tesla mostly wants to shut the door on people building a Robotaxi fleet by stealth at a discount rate. And they want to capture a fair chunk of the revenue from working Robotaxis. I doubt that the short-term take rate is a major focus, but preannouncing prices rises gets some people off the fence.