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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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a couple of weeks ago I asked the members here that understand and remember more than I do what the hell the stock split was going to do to the Stock price during the run-up (actually now a non-run-up) to the stock split.
All I can remember is that the stock went up and up and up for weeks, and then the day before the stock dropped like a rock.
Well if non-run-up happened, then tomorrow look for a 10% climb.

And I do not remember anyone's explanation as to why it dropped the day before the split.
 
a couple of weeks ago I asked the members here that understand and remember more than I do what the hell the stock split was going to do to the Stock price during the run-up (actually now a non-run-up) to the stock split.
All I can remember is that the stock went up and up and up for weeks, and then the day before the stock dropped like a rock.
Well if non-run-up happened, then tomorrow look for a 10% climb.

And I do not remember anyone's explanation as to why it dropped the day before the split.
In 2020, the stock rose every day for the 5 days prior to the split.
It rose the day after the split as well.
Aug 28 $443
Aug 31 $498 (first day split adjusted)

TSLA shares started dropping on Sep 1st because Tesla reported the intent of a $5B capital raise.
With no capital raise this time, maybe the stock runs for a few days. At least I hope so.
 
Video with likely info on solving 4680 production problems posted here:-

TLDR - Apparently making significant progress,
 
Would be interesting to see a map of the area - do we know exactly where the left turn is located?
Behold my googlefu Huntington Rd · Jacksonville, FL 32210

1661314074042.png
 
I think he'll have a lot more leverage to negotiate a lower price if that's what he wants. Not sure he still wants it though. What once looked like a tasty snowcone is turning out to be more of a dirty snowball. But if he does get it for say $40B, that should leave him with about $10B to buy back shares.
That’s not a lemonaid snow cone, its just a cup filled with yellow snow!!!
 
TSLA shares started dropping on Sep 1st because Tesla reported the intent of a $5B capital raise.
With no capital raise this time, maybe the stock runs for a few days. At least I hope so.
I've been wondering to myself (I have no way of knowing one way or the other) if Elon's recent sale of shares is functioning in a similar fashion to the capital raise last time - as a drag on the shares by providing incremental liquidity / float for the shorts to cover.
 
Even Californians can't complain when I say that the split is happening today!

13 hours to go. Unlucky for some shorts.

Maybe all the S&P500 trackers will finally buy in when they see the SP crater 66.6%. Hmm - 666. Elon does it again. Well I did point you all to the numerology thread...

This btw is a fantastic example of where I have humbly juxtaposed several messages into one post.
 
Just to emphasise Tesla's ability to sell cars and that demand is not a problem, my parents are buying picking up their Tesla (long range) this friday. It's dad's (82), and mums (78) first new car ever. My brother has ordered a model Y (also his first new car) which is due to be delivered in November. Now if Tesla could just get a wriggle on with the RHD dual motor cybertruck for Australia (although I will adjust the order to get the higher specc'd model), my order will fill in (my first new car) and we're all set!
 
Here are the notes from the dojo presentation:

Some slides: Tesla Dojo Custom AI Supercomputer at HC34

Beyond Compute - Enabling AI through System Integration

Ganesh Venkataramanan, Tesla Motors



Ganesh was at AMD, Operon ‘64 and a few others. Also holds WR for fastest clocked silicon



“Hot Chips - One of the most premiere chip conferences”





80% of data is unstructured, requires new types of processing



Need new data types

New types of cores



‘What is AI’

‘What is ML’

‘What is DL’



AI Training Systems - Dataset Models (SW) and Compute Scale (HW)





4D labels in video data - space and time

Taking 3D models of the environment, label it, and take it over time

Automated labeling, but requires a lot of processing and involvement even when automated labeling



If Human is in the AI loop, progress will be slow

Solution is recursion

More good data, better models!



Different types of online and offline models

Knowledge graphics - Semantic networks, BigGAN, Multi-Modal AI, Transfer Learning, Datacentric AI, ART Networks





Since 2012, Effective Compute

8x from Moore’s Law

25x from Algorithms

37500x from Scale out ($$$)



Differentiated hardware



GPU power trend is up

2014: 300W

2016: 350W

2019: 400W

2021: 500W

2022: 700W

2030: 9000W+



Difficulty of cooling

The more power in the same power requires exponentially more power to cool



Power delivery

Most GPUs today uses Lateral Power Delivery

Some AI chips use vertical power delivery

So… vertical power delivery



Datacenter architecture evolution

It’s all about connectivity

Focused compute and connectivity





D1 Chip

400W TDP

645mm2, TSMC N7

50B transistors

362 TOPs BF16/CFP8

22.6 TOPs FP32



25 D1 chips on a Tile

14kW on a tile

9 PetaOPs BF16/CFP16



Pakcaging - Use all fan out layers



Unparalleled integration

25 chips in a Dojo Tile

2 chips in a PCIe card by comparison



You need a software stack





More goals



Architecture

Integration

Disaggregation

Abstraction

Algorithm

Compilers



Q&A



Q : NV : Dojo for non-tesla users?

A : Focused on internal customers first. Elon has made it public, over time will be made available to researchers, but no time frame



Q : Google : Scale was 37000x vs Moore’s Law. How much more scale can we get from $$ - what happens as we approach that limit

A: No idea. But that scale growth is not scalable. Have to get it more efficient. Need to do similar compute in lower power. Most algorithms are developed for current architectures, so those need to develop as well.



Q: Have algorithms changed in Tesla with the HW?

A: In the process. More at AI Day



Q: Chair : Process to build Dojo

A: Since the interview with Elon. Want to do different than CPU/GPU. Whole team is still answering that question. We noticed many bottlenecks in inference first, hence FSD, then started similar scale issues for training, that’s simply how it began. Knowing your workloads is important, need to optimize systems.



Q : Qualcomm : Training tile cooling?

A : Partner IPs involved. Infrastructure level, it’s just a liquid cooled computer. But for efficiency, had to do a lot of design.



Q: Learning from design fan out wafer?

A: Alternatives didn’t integrated enough. MCM, Interposer. Scale out for those weren’t enough. Platform has to be as large as possible. We learned a lot - key factor for fanout is yield - don’t need perfect yield, then focus on power and performance. Chip industry is 2.5D/3D, all of that increases power density, which means cooling difficulties - you fall through a cliff in requirements. All those discontinuities were considered.



Q : How did you think about the config. Bandwidth is linear, compute is quadratic.

A: We have taken the best judgment call based on physics and modeling. We can refine it any time.



Q: Deal with failures

A: Mentioned earlier



Q : SiFive : When IBM650 - first large scale computer. Tesla built a machine because they couldn’t buy one. Make more business sense to create standards?

A: If we can solve our problems with any platform, that’s what we aim for. Doing this in-house is because we didn’t find a commercial solution moving fast enough.



Q : Software target challenges

A : No commercial software for us, we built our own, even down to intermediate representations. Our distributed compiler is amazing. A lot of distributed compilers talked about in 60s/70s.



Q: Types of NNs, how they map to Dojo

A: Transformer NNs are published. Lots of things are changing. We fast follow.



Q : Dojo 2?

A : We won’t sit idle.
 
okay, all the jokes aside (3 right == left) and such ... there is a case for routing based on difficulty of route - the thing Waymo does and we criticize it for is actually a feature right. Tesla FSD should choose the safest route based on .... well ... current conditions / past experiences ... idk

Avoiding known tricky maneuvers through adjustments to the route calculation cost function is only a stop-gap that reduces the amount of interventions but it cannot avoid dangerous situations or prevent the car from being stuck in all cases. For a Waymo, this makes sense as it scales the number of robotaxis per human operator. Tesla's stated goal is a generalized solution that is significantly safer than a human driver. They need to know the failure modes in order to address and fix them. That's what FSD Beta testers sign up for.
 
Do we believe in this? Is this applicable for Tesla's battery chemistries?

Tesla has been doing this since Supercharger v1...
SC does not start with low power ... it starts with max power the battery conditions allow and then decrease as SOC rises.
What max power is, depends on the SC cabinet and wires in the car. It used to be 150kW, v3 goes to 250 (rumored 270).

Tesla-Model-3-LR-on-Supercharger-V3-June-2019-Data.png
 
Complete BS. You cannot change the limitations of physics (especially heat and expansion) with a "better software"...
"But even the most optimised charging protocols will not be the main factor that enables extreme fast charging for most vehicles, says Tal. He expects the biggest improvements in vehicle charging times to come from new battery chemistries, bigger battery designs and faster charging station technology, along with car companies enhancing their battery pack designs."