Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Fun Fact: It feels good just to know I bought the majority of my TSLA shares for between $17 and $21 per share. 
Cheers to the Longs!
Cheers to the Longs!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
If everyone with shares (or even if you have no shares) could give me $.29, for each of their shares, that would make the math even easier.
January 2014 $40 calls bought in January 2013 when the price was ~$35, saw the stock price hit ~$200 in January 2014 prior to expiration. That was one of the first huge moves.
RT
RT
As long as he puts the cover letter on the TPS report for each individual share given.
navguy12
Active Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Nvidia down after bad earnings, but didn't guide for anything more horrendous.
Snowflake popping 17% on a revenue beat.
Salesforce beats earnings/rev but gives weak 2023 guidance, down almost 7% AH. Kinda strange, since the 2023 figure was only lowered a hair.
Overall......I'd say macro-neutral.
Snowflake popping 17% on a revenue beat.
Salesforce beats earnings/rev but gives weak 2023 guidance, down almost 7% AH. Kinda strange, since the 2023 figure was only lowered a hair.
Overall......I'd say macro-neutral.
Saw wsb using inverse cramer etf effectively. One person doubled his money the past month.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
I don't think all of us know that Elon's behavior is the reason for Q2's QoQ drop from Q1. It may have been a factor, but it is by my math at least 6x less influential than the collapse of the overall stock market which seems to have been triggered primarily by the ramifications of the war in Ukraine, by interest rate increases, and by the terrible natural disasters we've had this year. All the following numbers use pre-split TSLA prices.
First of all, if we do the measurement from Apr 1st to Jun 1st, TSLA fell 32% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 16%.
TSLA's beta is about 2.
2 * 16% = 32%
Performance on par with beta.
Here's a scatter plot showing daily pairs of TSLA price and NASDAQ price at market open, from the beginning of 2020 until today. Even in this naive comparison, TSLA and NASDAQ have a surprisingly linear relationship with R^2 of 0.773 which indicates a strong correlation. Amazingly, this correlation has appeared strong across TSLA prices ranging from less than $100 to more than $1200.
Taking the same chart but zooming in on March 15th through Jun 15th to include Q2 and a couple weeks before and after Q2, the correlation is stronger with R^2 of 0.862, as we would expect. On a shorter time horizon, less information specific to Tesla's performance and prospects will come out than over a multiyear time period, and so TSLA would be more likely to be influenced by other factors not relating directly to Tesla matters. In this case, TSLA explosively outperformed the NASDAQ in 2020 as the company hit a series of major milestones, including finally achieving sustainable positive cashflow, demonstrating mass production of good cars in Shanghai, finally getting added to the S&P 500, holding Battery Day, and showing impressive earnings growth, all of which generated alpha and drove the stock price higher. TSLA's long-term growth profile makes its macro correlation weaker over longer time periods.
Overall, the data says that around 80% of the variation in the TSLA price can be predicted simply by knowing the NASDAQ Index for the day in question.
For example, today the NASDAQ is at 12432. Using the linear regression shown in the chart below to model the relationship between TSLA and NASDAQ based on the data from Mar 15th to Jun 15th, the model predicts a current TSLA price of $829. The actual current TSLA price is $891. That's only a 7% prediction error even with zero other information included in the model!
Imagine I traveled back in time to Jun 15th and posted here with a poll asking for TSLA price predictions for Aug 24th, and imagine the only hint I provided was that the NASDAQ would be sitting at 12432. How many people would guess within 7% accuracy ($829-$953)? How much work would most guessers put into estimation while neglecting or downplaying the overwhelming importance of the NASDAQ data point?
A similar story even holds for daily price fluctuations, which have a lot more randomness involved. Here we can see TSLA's beta of 2 (the slope of the line) and a correlation coefficient of 0.435. That is, 43.5% of TSLA's daily variation since 2020 began was explainable by daily variation in the NASDAQ Composite. I would bet that random chaotic motion causes a great deal of the remaining 56.5% of the variation, but that I don't have data for testing that.
On 479 out of 658 trading days, which is 73%, TSLA and the NASDAQ moved in the same direction. On days of significant action during which the NASDAQ rose or fell by an absolute value of at least 1%, TSLA moved the same direction 86% of the time!
The correlation is significantly stronger if we exclude days where the NASDAQ moved less than 1.5% up or down, leaving behind only days where most likely some kind of big news came out that moved the overall markets. Now R-squared is 0.591!
On the other hand, for the less-than-1.5% days for the NASDAQ, it seems TSLA just tended to do whatever it wanted without regard for what the NASDAQ was doing. This could be due to many factors, including alleged manipulation by options market makers seeking Max Pain, or random chaotic variation, or TSLA having some consistent tendency to jump twice as high as the market on days with big moves, or something else I'm not thinking of.
Here's another way to look at it. The table below shows, for each $100 price range for TSLA, the minimum and average NASDAQ open in the last 365 days.
This table clearly shows how, if we want TSLA to get back to $1000 and beyond, we either need to wait for the NASDAQ to reach like 14000+ or wait for good Tesla news, understood well enough by the market to cause a reaction, for TSLA to start substantially outperforming its beta. Tesla has never opened above $1000 with the NASDAQ less than 13000, and these days the NASDAQ is less than 13000. I expect, if all else fails, the market will manage to somewhat comprehend the numbers for Q3 deliveries and financials and TSLA will go up, and then Q4 deliveries and financials will knock their socks off in January.
Conclusion
Elon Musk is single-handedly crushing TSLA and the entire stock market with his stock selling, antics and controversial Twitter acquisition bid. More complaining about this is definitely warranted, and the author recommends further research and posting about it outside of the designated threads.
This is not investment or financial advice.
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lafrisbee
Active Member
Ant logic deems this the best news he has heard in a good while because this might be the reason there was no run-up of the stock just before the split. If the last split caused the shorts to feel a ton of pain then they might have decided to switch to this game plan. And that means the naked short covering will start tomorrow for some of the MM's tomorrow. We will see. A two day firework show? You can take this as solid financial advice...from an ant.
AS an aside, I feel as though this Elon dude is a pretty fart smeller. He is the straw that stirs the drink. He sold when he knew the moment was there. This made it so he could get what he needed without nose-diving the stock. WHile I don't like how it blocked the momentum it was probably the most favorable strategy for us.
They always have. That's why those of us who are experienced in these matters ( i.e., lost a lot of money ), advise against such moves.Maybe most everyone here—except @Krugerrand , @AudubonB, me, and a few others—tried to get clever and sold shares and bought options leading up to the split.
The Streeters said “Whoa, never mind the shorting, let’s take that money!"
/joking, well at least half
As far as I can tell, the Street makes money now mainly by confounding the short term expectations of Retail.
The brokers are already anticipating the need for naked short sellers to buy the split shares in order to belatedly deliver to the rightful owner of the stock. They got away with it the first time. Why not again? Nobody's going to do or say anything.
Haha, the reddit comments in this thread:Some full-on Farzyness for you:
Tesla Stock POST SPLIT Price Targets Thru 2035 - Bear, Base, Bull #TSLA | Farzad Mesbahi
Cheers to the Longs!
When the bull case turns out to be pessimistic...
The only way to get a read on what is possible is model a combination of wind and solar in various locations, with many years of weather data.
I have heard that wind is good in Germany in winter specifically off shore wind, in summer I bet solar does a lot better in Germany that it does in winter.
Solar is cheap enough to work for Germany in summer.
Finally the the EU could get together and arrange some HDVC links to land in northern Italy. West side - Spain + Morocco, East Side - Greece + Turkey.
Just the threat of building the HDVC links might make the Russians realise their gas threat has an expiry date.
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For the project above, running a 3.2 GW link for 4,200 KM is estimated to cost roughly $12 Billion AUD. That includes a challenging deep water section which they probably don't have in the Med Sea.
The Morocco to Turin link seems to be roughly 2,000 KM by plane, the sea route might be a bit longer.
Krugerrand
Meow
Au contraire, I was bloody brilliantly clever. I continued to hold my shares and by sunup tomorrow I’ll have 3xs more! Most of those shares will have a cost basis of just over $2. Mwhahahahaha!Maybe most everyone here—except @Krugerrand , @AudubonB, me, and a few others—tried to get clever and sold shares and bought options leading up to the split.
The Streeters said “Whoa, never mind the shorting, let’s take that money!"
/joking, well at least half
As far as I can tell, the Street makes money now mainly by confounding the short term expectations of Retail.
what? you’ve never watched The Sopranos?A general economic indicator I'd never considered, the garbage business is still booming, no sign of recession there.
America’s trash flow isn't signaling a recession, CEO explains
Republic Services CEO does not see a recession in America's trash.finance.yahoo.com
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