Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
To clarify, I'm saying that Elon's antics might be significant in the sense that it has some nonzero influence but I don't have good data on hand to test it.
The coefficient of determination (R^2) for the NASDAQ vs TSLA is about 80% depending on what time period I look at. That means most of the TSLA variation over the short term is caused by, or at least correlated with, the NASDAQ's movement. It also means that 100-80% = 20% of the variation remains unexplained by the model. The macro market is the overwhelmingly dominant factor, having 80/20 = 4x more influence than all other factors combined and more like 6x more influence when we look at only Q2 when the Twitter stuff all started.
That ~20% unexplained variation is either totally random or other factors are at play, one of which might be Elon's public behavior and stock sales. Other strong candidates include Tesla's actual quarterly reports and guidance, the new factories finally starting production, Tesla's avalanche of demand and subsequent price raises, and the US EV tax credit being refreshed. Also, as @StarFoxisDown! has pointed out, the Shanghai COVID shutdowns may have provided Wall St manipulators the opportunity to keep Tesla's impending explosion of profits from affecting the stock much this summer, but that dam will break soon enough.
Edit: I should also point out that for the simple model using only the NASDAQ index to predict TSLA, the prediction error is primarily coming from it underestimating how high TSLA has gotten this summer despite the NASDAQ being way down from earlier this year.
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