That pretty much just leaves the crypto spammers.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
I showed one of my brokers the TSLA comparison chart regarding their debt (the junk rating one), and he was floored. He also was totally unaware that TSLA wasn't relying on government subsidies/ev credits, has no idea about how far ahead TSLA is. (This particular broker doesn't actively manage my account - if Wealthsimple had existed when I started investing I would have used it instead for my 'boring HODL portfolio').I think most "pro" investors simply trust AMZN more than TSLA today. Amazon doesn't have a CEO who's a wildcard, they have years of positive finances, and they have a track record investors can rely on.
Many Wall Street investors still think of Tesla as a risky startup with huge "competition" from legacy auto. To most of us that's nonsense, but tradition is hard to let go for many "traditional" investors.
This opinion will change given time, but I think it will take a year or two of stellar performance to truly wake Wall Street up. Eventually it will be obvious to most everyone and impossible to ignore. Over that time we'll see a Moody's credit upgrade, many more hedge funds will pour into TSLA, CT & Semi will launch, and the companies revenues and margins will rise through the roof.
In other words, buying opportunity.
I think there are many in the industry that just aren't up to speed (using 5 yr old narratives), let alone understand what's happening. To be fair, like Warren Buffet says, no one can understand in-depth more that a handful of companies (so it's not bad to invest in only a few high-quality ones that you can follow).
I'm grateful I discovered Tesla early. Some pure luck involved - I wasn't interested in investing, I just wanted someone to sell me an electric car (because my local Ford dealership said they weren't able to sell me even a hybrid, and Tesla from the beginning was willing to ship to anywhere in Canada, and not just to a few strategic markets here).
thesmokingman
Active Member
296.07... should have been better, could have been worse...
Krugerrand
Meow
Don’t be jealous you haven’t connected the dots yet.
I'm glad I invested in TSLA early too. Unlike you though I was interested in the stock, I simply held off for years because I honestly didn't think they'd survive. I admit it, I thought Tesla would fold like so many other new automakers have done over history. Once the M3 was in production and ramping, and once I could see how earnings were trending and the inevitable flip to profitability, that's when I decided to start accumulating. And soon thereafter my conviction became so strong I went all in.
In retrospect, best decision ever!!!
Yes! I made 10 cents a share on the 100 shares I added today.
Don't shorts have like 3 business days to deliver the stocks? Would this still apply for # of days to deliver the dividend stock?
All eyes on Fed tomorrow ...
Yesterday my lotto plays For (next Fri) were up 60%, decided to let it run ...
.....will let it play out .... tution fees
(+ MM might have figured out how to manage splits by adding a Stock Split Defeat Device ...
)
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Krugerrand
Meow
When your portfolio gets big enough to draw their attention, you’ll get the invite.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Powell comments coming at 10am Eastern tomorrow. I expect fireworks.
To meet their goals, it's my understanding the Fed needs to hike another ~1.25 points. We have meetings coming in September, November, and December. Sure seems like .75, .25, .25 is logical, but I think we may end up with two .50 hikes followed by a .25 to end the year. Maybe even .50/.25/.25.
Two reasons:
1) Mid-terms are coming.
2) Inflation has almost certainly broken. Shortages and disruptions still abound, but every retailer in the world has just warned of massive inventory glut. We can easily look around and see tons of consumer goods are like 10-30% cheaper than not too long ago. Plus the oil trade has broken.
I know crude has spiked back up this week, but I think the bull side of this trade is nearing the end of their possible tricks. The gas shortage is being touted as the end of the world, but it's not. Germany is pumping electricity into France like crazy as we speak, including tons of LNG-fed supply. It will be wildly expensive and emissions-intensive, but I think they know they'll get thru this winter unscathed.
Crude oil on the other hand has the Fed's laser focus IMO. And it's trending very nicely.
As US commercial supplies of crude and refined products rebound from covid disruptions:
WTI has been reliably trending down:
If we think Powell's #1 goal was to break this crude oil price gouging, which I believe it was, then it's appropriate to ease off the pressure a bit. I don't know the Fed well enough to know what "a bit" might mean, so I'm defaulting to thinking a .50 hike is appropriate. You can always slam another .50 hike on top of that 40 days later.
It seems to me like people are underestimating how massive of a move .75 + .75 + another .75 would be. I bet the fed knows how dangerous that might be, especially with QT hitting literally right now, and they'll play it safe in light of an improving inflation environment. I guess that translates to language like ".50 is definitely on the table for September" and some commentary about macro improvement.
To meet their goals, it's my understanding the Fed needs to hike another ~1.25 points. We have meetings coming in September, November, and December. Sure seems like .75, .25, .25 is logical, but I think we may end up with two .50 hikes followed by a .25 to end the year. Maybe even .50/.25/.25.
Two reasons:
1) Mid-terms are coming.
2) Inflation has almost certainly broken. Shortages and disruptions still abound, but every retailer in the world has just warned of massive inventory glut. We can easily look around and see tons of consumer goods are like 10-30% cheaper than not too long ago. Plus the oil trade has broken.
I know crude has spiked back up this week, but I think the bull side of this trade is nearing the end of their possible tricks. The gas shortage is being touted as the end of the world, but it's not. Germany is pumping electricity into France like crazy as we speak, including tons of LNG-fed supply. It will be wildly expensive and emissions-intensive, but I think they know they'll get thru this winter unscathed.
Crude oil on the other hand has the Fed's laser focus IMO. And it's trending very nicely.
As US commercial supplies of crude and refined products rebound from covid disruptions:
WTI has been reliably trending down:
If we think Powell's #1 goal was to break this crude oil price gouging, which I believe it was, then it's appropriate to ease off the pressure a bit. I don't know the Fed well enough to know what "a bit" might mean, so I'm defaulting to thinking a .50 hike is appropriate. You can always slam another .50 hike on top of that 40 days later.
It seems to me like people are underestimating how massive of a move .75 + .75 + another .75 would be. I bet the fed knows how dangerous that might be, especially with QT hitting literally right now, and they'll play it safe in light of an improving inflation environment. I guess that translates to language like ".50 is definitely on the table for September" and some commentary about macro improvement.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Yeah - what @ggr asks. Does anybody have any news or similar link - something better than 'entertainment' - that indicates a rating review (upgrade) is in the offing?
Best info I can find on the general topic:
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Bond Rating Agencies: Overview, Benefits, and Criticisms
Bond rating agencies are companies that assess the creditworthiness of both debt securities and their issuers. Discover more about them here.
This is how I understood things as well, which leaves me pondering the question - why would Tesla get a credit review? Its not like Tesla is borrowing money. Maybe if Tesla goes into the market for lease backed loans or a revolving loan / working capital type of loan, maybe that would get a rating? Would Tesla pay for a rating on these types of loans, and/or would lenders require a credit rating to issue something like this (almost certainly yes
)?My guess of the moment is that Tesla won't go looking for a revolver - lease backed loans is as close to borrowing that I can see Tesla doing.
Would a 3rd / external party pay a ratings agency for a rating review?
I see a corner case problem with some institutional investing criteria. If you require a minimum credit rating, and the company has only old debt and isn't taking on new debt, you could end up with an uninvestable company -- simply because they aren't borrowing money.
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
This is a very interesting interview with Alexandra Merz by Brighter with Herbert:
Some takeaways:
- Only 30 of the top 300 ETF's currently own any TSLA at all
- Many of the ETF's are likely waiting for a Moody's credit upgrade
- Some others will wait until the TSLA owning funds begin to outperform due to TSLA, only then will the stubborn ones buy in too (to keep up)
- If a Moody's upgrade is coming it will most likely be in late December, but it could be end of August (unlikely now?)
- When the upgrade happens it will near certainly trigger a huge influx of large TSLA investors (ETF's)
Good interview, very informative.
Some takeaways:
- Only 30 of the top 300 ETF's currently own any TSLA at all
- Many of the ETF's are likely waiting for a Moody's credit upgrade
- Some others will wait until the TSLA owning funds begin to outperform due to TSLA, only then will the stubborn ones buy in too (to keep up)
- If a Moody's upgrade is coming it will most likely be in late December, but it could be end of August (unlikely now?)
- When the upgrade happens it will near certainly trigger a huge influx of large TSLA investors (ETF's)
Good interview, very informative.
Follow TeslaBoomerMama on Twitter.Yeah - what @ggr asks. Does anybody have any news or similar link - something better than 'entertainment' - that indicates a rating review (upgrade) is in the offing?
Best info I can find on the general topic:
Bond Rating Agencies: Overview, Benefits, and Criticisms
Bond rating agencies are companies that assess the creditworthiness of both debt securities and their issuers. Discover more about them here.www.investopedia.com
This is how I understood things as well, which leaves me pondering the question - why would Tesla get a credit review? Its not like Tesla is borrowing money. Maybe if Tesla goes into the market for lease backed loans or a revolving loan / working capital type of loan, maybe that would get a rating? Would Tesla pay for a rating on these types of loans, and/or would lenders require a credit rating to issue something like this (almost certainly yes
My guess of the moment is that Tesla won't go looking for a revolver - lease backed loans is as close to borrowing that I can see Tesla doing.
Would a 3rd / external party pay a ratings agency for a rating review?
I see a corner case problem with some institutional investing criteria. If you require a minimum credit rating, and the company has only old debt and isn't taking on new debt, you could end up with an uninvestable company -- simply because they aren't borrowing money.
She used to work at Moody's and knows this stuff cold. She is mounting a pressure campaign to get Moody's and S&P to upgrade TSLA credit rating.
Edit: Ninja'd by @Mengy. Alexandra Merz is TeslaBoomerMama
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
... and you somehow didn't notice that MMs has 149 days notice they needed to cover naked shorts?
adiggs
Well-Known Member
All good info and I really do appreciate your read on things.
I have fewer links to support my thinking - I'm expecting another .75 increase OR some significant talk and action on QT (rather than disappearing into the background as it is right now). I've got a few reasons for thinking this:
1) I agree that there is evidence that inflation is breaking. However there isn't yet broad metric evidence of inflation decreasing. I've read previous Fed comments as indicating that they are looking for broad evidence of inflation on a downwards slope - not a subset of sectors peaking and/or starting to decline. Retail, manufacturing, services, wages, employment, capital goods, durable goods, inventory, energy, food (my own quicky list of a range of things I expect they are considering).
2) The current rate, despite the aggressive .75 and .75 raises to get here, has only brought the fed up to a neutral monetary policy - maybe --slightly-- restrictive due to the very low levels of QT thus far implemented (don't have a link - I've read that at least the first month actuals were a small fraction of the budget). Neutral monetary policy in the face of such high inflation is actually -still- very stimulative. And prior to the most recent raise, despite the really high inflation level, Fed policy was actually fairly strongly stimulative.
The current rate, and the raises to get here, only seems high and aggressive because its relative to the unprecedented level of stimulus for the last 2 years (0% interest PLUS $120B new money added each month by the Fed PLUS heavy government spending).
3) Too many investors have an unconscious expectation of the "Fed put" - the idea that all of our investments are hedged by the Fed at the market level, in that the Fed won't let the stock market sell off --too- much (Fed would stop raising rates, and maybe even lowering them, if the market REALLY sold off). As a result the investing class hasn't yet taken inflation and the possibility of recession seriously enough. For this reason I expect the Fed to make at least 1 move, and soon, that is at least 1 notch surprisingly more aggressive than the investing class expects. Something to shock us out of our complacency about inflation / recession / interest rates.
That could be a .75 move this time when investors are expecting .50. It could be the .50 move but with significant QT activity, along with a lot of talk / education / anticipated impact about how QT is off and running and has a couple of $T to go over the next couple of years.
I'm personally most interested in the QT activity. I expect that to have a much faster impact / transmission into the stock market than the interest rate increases.
(Whole lot of opinion, not advice. We all make our own decisions and experience our own consequences)
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