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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Exactly. The "spring" appears to have much more room for compression than most of us thought... 😉
Patience is a virtue...
TSLA was around $17 (with latest split adjustment) in 2014 Feb, it was still around $17 in 2019 Sept., i.e. 5 and a half years later.
Then the spring got released and it sprung up to $414 by 2021 Nov. That is over 24x growth in 2 years.
Less than a year has passed since that peak, so it could keep going sideways for a long time before the next jump.
 
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Patience is a virtue...
TSLA was around $17 (with latest split adjustment) in 2014 Feb, it was still around $17 in 2019 Sept., i.e. 5 and a half years later.
Then the spring got released and it sprung up to $414 by 2021 Nov. That is over 24x growth in 2 years.
Less than a year has passed since that peak, so it could keep going sideways for a long time before the next jump.
Not really. The dynamic around the stock was completely different from 2014-2019.

Tesla was a small company, posting losses every quarter (though they had positive gross margins). Tesla had to raise cash multiple times and while we here were believers in the company and EV adoption, it still took a leap of faith………and a lot of in depth research of the finances to extrapolate future earnings. FUD and short selling was very effective in controlling the stock.

Fast forward to today and the dynamic is completely different. Yes patience is a virtue. But anyone thinking TSLA is going to trade sideways for years while Tesla executes 40-50% growth annually for the next 4-5 years is going to be quite wrong.
 
Disappointed to read the following Tesla Semi comments on LinkedIn from Jigar Shah, director of loan products at the DoE and renewables pioneer:

Operating costs are most certainly lower. But this doesn't accurately count the extra Infrastructure costs for Superchargers which will be closer to $0.43/kwh. Also doesn't address the weight versus payload trade-off math. Are these awesomely engineered trucks only good when delivering lighter loads or equally awesome when loaded up?

The reality is that most of these first fleets going EV are ones that return to a central place to charge. Unlikely to work today on routes going across the country.


(post link)

Referenced article....


What is the deal with this DoE? I understand pandering to Michigan voters, but why tear down and borderline lie about those on the front lines of the transition?

Perhaps I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he's misinformed.

(note: Shah does all his own LinkedIn posting)
 
Disappointed to read the following Tesla Semi comments on LinkedIn from Jigar Shah, director of loan products at the DoE and renewables pioneer:

Operating costs are most certainly lower. But this doesn't accurately count the extra Infrastructure costs for Superchargers which will be closer to $0.43/kwh. Also doesn't address the weight versus payload trade-off math. Are these awesomely engineered trucks only good when delivering lighter loads or equally awesome when loaded up?

The reality is that most of these first fleets going EV are ones that return to a central place to charge. Unlikely to work today on routes going across the country.


(post link)

Referenced article....


What is the deal with this DoE? I understand pandering to Michigan voters, but why tear down and borderline lie about those on the front lines of the transition?

Perhaps I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he's misinformed.

(note: Shah does all his own LinkedIn posting)

Maybe the next gigafactory should be in Detroit… or DC.
 
Not really. The dynamic around the stock was completely different from 2014-2019.

Tesla was a small company, posting losses every quarter (though they had positive gross margins). Tesla had to raise cash multiple times and while we here were believers in the company and EV adoption, it still took a leap of faith………and a lot of in depth research of the finances to extrapolate future earnings. FUD and short selling was very effective in controlling the stock.

Fast forward to today and the dynamic is completely different. Yes patience is a virtue. But anyone thinking TSLA is going to trade sideways for years while Tesla executes 40-50% growth annually for the next 4-5 years is going to be quite wrong.
The original battle for 200 and then 300 was based on probable execution and probable volume and probable profits. Now these metrics are all here, and in each segment are actually increasing. The market can cover its eyes, and label TSLA junk, but if someone is looking to invest in a sold out production capacity for an expensive widget, then TSLA is the place to go. Spambots, fake accounts, and admob payments are cute, but real profits based on real products remains compelling.
 
Maybe the next gigafactory should be in Detroit… or DC.

I mean.....there's no way this guy really thinks fleet operators are gonna pay $.43/kWh.

Didn't Elon say something ridiculous like $.07/kWh from megachargers? Even double that is totally fine.

It's gonna reeeeeally hard to vote for anyone moving forward. Except my boy Johnny Fetterman of course. But that's it.

Sorry for minor politic. Dead stop here!
 
I mean.....there's no way this guy really thinks fleet operators are gonna pay $.43/kWh.

Didn't Elon say something ridiculous like $.07/kWh from megachargers? Even double that is totally fine.

It's gonna reeeeeally hard to vote for anyone moving forward. Except my boy Johnny Fetterman of course. But that's it.

Sorry for minor politic. Dead stop here!
I'm sure Megacharger rates will vary based on location. In Modesto California (the Pepsi location) they are on PG&E and likely paying $0.25/ kWh (varies based on time of day) from PG&E unless they have a big solar array.
 
The original battle for 200 and then 300 was based on probable execution and probable volume and probable profits. Now these metrics are all here, and in each segment are actually increasing. The market can cover its eyes, and label TSLA junk, but if someone is looking to invest in a sold out production capacity for an expensive widget, then TSLA is the place to go. Spambots, fake accounts, and admob payments are cute, but real profits based on real products remains compelling.
I don't think Wall St can even cover its eyes as we get into next year.

Let's do a bit of math. I think Tesla will do $9.50 in GAAP EPS for 2023 (these are post split calculations). Even at a share price of 420/share at the end of 2023, TSLA's TTM P/E will be 44. It's Forward P/E would be 30. These are based on my expectations for 2023 earnings and Q4 2023's earnings.

So even at 1.3 trillion market cap, TSLA's valuation would be more than twice as cheap as it is today.

And then you start getting into 2024's earnings...............You can see how we're now FINALLY at a point where the scale of Tesla's earnings will force the issue. I know this seems hard to believe if you've been a Tesla investor for the past 10 years....but again, we're in a different dynamic now.
 
I don't think Wall St can even cover its eyes as we get into next year.

Let's do a bit of math. I think Tesla will do $9.50 in GAAP EPS for 2023 (these are post split calculations). Even at a share price of 420/share at the end of 2023, TSLA's TTM P/E will be 44. It's Forward P/E would be 30. These are based on my expectations for 2023 earnings and Q4 2023's earnings.

So even at 1.3 trillion market cap, TSLA's valuation would be more than twice as cheap as it is today.

And then you start getting into 2024's earnings...............You can see how we're now FINALLY at a point where the scale of Tesla's earnings will force the issue. I know this seems hard to believe if you've been a Tesla investor for the past 10 years....but again, we're in a different dynamic now.
The main underestimation from the market is the improvement to the production of the car and battery and motor. Improving margins can happen with economies of scale, but are hard to do with increased cost of parts and labor prices increasing as well. The auto industry is closely watching, because if several factories can be profitable, what about 10 or 20 factories? (there's that pesky economy of scale again).
 
The main underestimation from the market is the improvement to the production of the car and battery and motor. Improving margins can happen with economies of scale, but are hard to do with increased cost of parts and labor prices increasing as well. The auto industry is closely watching, because if several factories can be profitable, what about 10 or 20 factories? (there's that pesky economy of scale again).
and overestimation is that every one else will just catch up;)
 
I'm sure Megacharger rates will vary based on location. In Modesto California (the Pepsi location) they are on PG&E and likely paying $0.25/ kWh (varies based on time of day) from PG&E unless they have a big solar array.
I've often thought that it makes the most sense (in the short term) for Semi's to be used by the PepsiCo's, Walmart's, and FedEx/UPS's of the world for main local warehouse delivery where both the origins and locations are equipped with megachargers, so the driver can plug in when arriving and charge while unloading, ready to head to the next location or back to the warehouse.

In a few years when Tesla or someone else develops a trailer that can hold connected supplemental batteries can they think about really long journeys.
 
Boy, it didn't take Apple long did it? Even though they've been talking about the concept since April per a Google search.

 
I don't know about that. I don't think his interest in Twitter rises anywhere close to his interest in Space exploration and renewable energy. I could easily see him walk away from the Twitter deal. Zero chance he walks away from Mars(literally and figuratively).

His interest isn't in Twitter. The focus of his interest is the dream he had for X.com from back in his PayPal days.

He has already said that acquiring Twitter gets him to his goal about three years quicker than would starting from scratch.

Anyone who thinks he wants Twitter simply for the dumpster fire it currently is underestimates the value to Elon of starting the project with a large, diverse, and established user-base to jump start into a greater plan.

Or, maybe because he has done so poorly with SpaceX, Tesla, Boring Co., etc. it is easy to presume he doesn't have a clue and to discount his vision as being just another flash in the pan like these others?

O ye of little faith.
 
480k in one shot seems like a big purchase to me, maybe not to some people...

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All the replies and votes about this post and I haven't seen one person yet discuss something I've been thinking about this.

She posted it last night. Looks like the high for GOOG today was ~111 so if she put a limit sell order in for 120 she hasn't sold yet.

Seems to me it would be better to get the GOOG sold at market or with a tighter limit and get that over and get into TSLA at a favorable price before a run up. Could have gotten TSLA today in the 270s. What price will she get TSLA at if she has to wait for GOOG to get back to 120 first?

Wouldn't that have been a better discussion than the first reply?
 
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