0, edited the original post to make it clear.Is the digit before the last 5 a '0' or '1'?
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0, edited the original post to make it clear.Is the digit before the last 5 a '0' or '1'?
Patience is a virtue...Exactly. The "spring" appears to have much more room for compression than most of us thought...
Not really. The dynamic around the stock was completely different from 2014-2019.Patience is a virtue...
TSLA was around $17 (with latest split adjustment) in 2014 Feb, it was still around $17 in 2019 Sept., i.e. 5 and a half years later.
Then the spring got released and it sprung up to $414 by 2021 Nov. That is over 24x growth in 2 years.
Less than a year has passed since that peak, so it could keep going sideways for a long time before the next jump.
Disappointed to read the following Tesla Semi comments on LinkedIn from Jigar Shah, director of loan products at the DoE and renewables pioneer:
Operating costs are most certainly lower. But this doesn't accurately count the extra Infrastructure costs for Superchargers which will be closer to $0.43/kwh. Also doesn't address the weight versus payload trade-off math. Are these awesomely engineered trucks only good when delivering lighter loads or equally awesome when loaded up?
The reality is that most of these first fleets going EV are ones that return to a central place to charge. Unlikely to work today on routes going across the country.
(post link)
Referenced article....
The Staggering Economics of the Tesla Semi
The economics of the Tesla semi show that it is about 83% cheaper to drive and haul goods than a standard diesel truck. Not to mention the reduction in cost due to less maintenance. The Tesla semi will truly disrupt the trucking industry.www.torquenews.com
What is the deal with this DoE? I understand pandering to Michigan voters, but why tear down and borderline lie about those on the front lines of the transition?
Perhaps I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he's misinformed.
(note: Shah does all his own LinkedIn posting)
The original battle for 200 and then 300 was based on probable execution and probable volume and probable profits. Now these metrics are all here, and in each segment are actually increasing. The market can cover its eyes, and label TSLA junk, but if someone is looking to invest in a sold out production capacity for an expensive widget, then TSLA is the place to go. Spambots, fake accounts, and admob payments are cute, but real profits based on real products remains compelling.Not really. The dynamic around the stock was completely different from 2014-2019.
Tesla was a small company, posting losses every quarter (though they had positive gross margins). Tesla had to raise cash multiple times and while we here were believers in the company and EV adoption, it still took a leap of faith………and a lot of in depth research of the finances to extrapolate future earnings. FUD and short selling was very effective in controlling the stock.
Fast forward to today and the dynamic is completely different. Yes patience is a virtue. But anyone thinking TSLA is going to trade sideways for years while Tesla executes 40-50% growth annually for the next 4-5 years is going to be quite wrong.
Maybe the next gigafactory should be in Detroit… or DC.
I'm sure Megacharger rates will vary based on location. In Modesto California (the Pepsi location) they are on PG&E and likely paying $0.25/ kWh (varies based on time of day) from PG&E unless they have a big solar array.I mean.....there's no way this guy really thinks fleet operators are gonna pay $.43/kWh.
Didn't Elon say something ridiculous like $.07/kWh from megachargers? Even double that is totally fine.
It's gonna reeeeeally hard to vote for anyone moving forward. Except my boy Johnny Fetterman of course. But that's it.
Sorry for minor politic. Dead stop here!
I don't think Wall St can even cover its eyes as we get into next year.The original battle for 200 and then 300 was based on probable execution and probable volume and probable profits. Now these metrics are all here, and in each segment are actually increasing. The market can cover its eyes, and label TSLA junk, but if someone is looking to invest in a sold out production capacity for an expensive widget, then TSLA is the place to go. Spambots, fake accounts, and admob payments are cute, but real profits based on real products remains compelling.
Hey, I recognize her. She's the one in the Chuck Cook video.480k in one shot seems like a big purchase to me, maybe not to some people...
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The main underestimation from the market is the improvement to the production of the car and battery and motor. Improving margins can happen with economies of scale, but are hard to do with increased cost of parts and labor prices increasing as well. The auto industry is closely watching, because if several factories can be profitable, what about 10 or 20 factories? (there's that pesky economy of scale again).I don't think Wall St can even cover its eyes as we get into next year.
Let's do a bit of math. I think Tesla will do $9.50 in GAAP EPS for 2023 (these are post split calculations). Even at a share price of 420/share at the end of 2023, TSLA's TTM P/E will be 44. It's Forward P/E would be 30. These are based on my expectations for 2023 earnings and Q4 2023's earnings.
So even at 1.3 trillion market cap, TSLA's valuation would be more than twice as cheap as it is today.
And then you start getting into 2024's earnings...............You can see how we're now FINALLY at a point where the scale of Tesla's earnings will force the issue. I know this seems hard to believe if you've been a Tesla investor for the past 10 years....but again, we're in a different dynamic now.
and overestimation is that every one else will just catch upThe main underestimation from the market is the improvement to the production of the car and battery and motor. Improving margins can happen with economies of scale, but are hard to do with increased cost of parts and labor prices increasing as well. The auto industry is closely watching, because if several factories can be profitable, what about 10 or 20 factories? (there's that pesky economy of scale again).
Didn't Elon say something ridiculous like $.07/kWh from megachargers?
By historical standards you were positively courteous.Hey, I did my part today. You need to try harder. I’m able to offer tips for the low price of 3 TSLA shares.
I've often thought that it makes the most sense (in the short term) for Semi's to be used by the PepsiCo's, Walmart's, and FedEx/UPS's of the world for main local warehouse delivery where both the origins and locations are equipped with megachargers, so the driver can plug in when arriving and charge while unloading, ready to head to the next location or back to the warehouse.I'm sure Megacharger rates will vary based on location. In Modesto California (the Pepsi location) they are on PG&E and likely paying $0.25/ kWh (varies based on time of day) from PG&E unless they have a big solar array.
Yeah and a week ago it would've been just 1 TSLA share. Inflation is real.Hey, I did my part today. You need to try harder. I’m able to offer tips for the low price of 3 TSLA shares.
I don't know about that. I don't think his interest in Twitter rises anywhere close to his interest in Space exploration and renewable energy. I could easily see him walk away from the Twitter deal. Zero chance he walks away from Mars(literally and figuratively).
All the replies and votes about this post and I haven't seen one person yet discuss something I've been thinking about this.480k in one shot seems like a big purchase to me, maybe not to some people...
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