Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
And yet I pay $0.54/kWh from 4pm to 9pm in California....prices set well before Russia invaded Ukraine, and yet the entire EU dealing with having significant amounts of their energy supply cut off by a nutty Russian president can do better. What's wrong with this picture?

EDIT: Technically the price was $0.49/kWh before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Well, those spot prices I quoted are not retail prices but wholesale prices, and are not including VAT nor any local taxes. That would be like 20 eurocents extra where I live.
Also, the cheapest spot price (for Belgium) is 21 cents at 2AM, highest is 57 cents at 7PM. It’s only since a couple of months that we have the ability to have per-hour dynamic pricing at the retail level, most electricity customers have a fixed price for the entire day (or 2 separate prices for peak and non-peak times).
I’m curious, what is your lowest rate, and during which time of the day?
 
Agree with your analysis 100%. This is exactly how human drivers work, they do something wrong or sub-optimal, realize the "oops" (and potential dangerous consequences to that mistake) and behave differently next time. We've been told that FSD sees it's interactions for the first time, every time. Training the NN can improve things, if you identity the error and collect the necessary training data. These are the infinite edge cases.... I like the idea of memory (cloud based?) until the NN can train those mistakes away. Not sure how this would work when Tesla is bragging about FSDs continued independence from map data?
When Tesla brags about not using map data they mean they don’t use very high definition maps (which are Lidar point clouds, so really, really high definition) as their primary way of navigating in the world (comparing a current point cloud to the mapped one to understand drivable space). Remembering that a particular street corner has a stop sign, or that there’s a pothole in a particular spot in the road is different since the perception system is still vision, you are just using these extra memories as guides to the driving task.

It wouldn’t be that hard for Tesla to add these memory hints to the low res map data it currently uses, and indeed these memory hints could easily be automatically generated from fleet data. Thinking about it, maybe Tesla is either already doing this, or has plan to add it in, and we may hear more about this during AI day #2 September 30th.
 
Well, those spot prices I quoted are not retail prices but wholesale prices, and are not including VAT nor any local taxes. That would be like 20 eurocents extra where I live.
Also, the cheapest spot price (for Belgium) is 21 cents at 2AM, highest is 57 cents at 7PM. It’s only since a couple of months that we have the ability to have per-hour dynamic pricing at the retail level, most electricity customers have a fixed price for the entire day (or 2 separate prices for peak and non-peak times).
I’m curious, what is your lowest rate, and during which time of the day?
Ah, well that makes a big difference, wholesale versus retail.

Retail prices where I live can get down to $.10 from midnight to 6am Weekdays, and midnight to 2pm on weekends.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: NicoV
Well, those spot prices I quoted are not retail prices but wholesale prices, and are not including VAT nor any local taxes. That would be like 20 eurocents extra where I live.
Also, the cheapest spot price (for Belgium) is 21 cents at 2AM, highest is 57 cents at 7PM. It’s only since a couple of months that we have the ability to have per-hour dynamic pricing at the retail level, most electricity customers have a fixed price for the entire day (or 2 separate prices for peak and non-peak times).
I’m curious, what is your lowest rate, and during which time of the day?
I live in Kennewick, WA and get my power from Benton PUD and our current rate is .0739 per kWh plus a 15% system charge, so I ain't complaining! Most of our power is hydroelectric from all the dams built on the Columbia.

Man, it really has to be difficult paying your power bills at the rates you quoted.
 
Last edited:
Updates to US tax notes. I'm not lawyer or tax expert and this is not legal, tax or investment advice. Probably some of this is wrong. All I did was read the law (link) this morning and try to understand it and I’m sharing my notes.

1662329421086.png


1) I had a summation error in the total cumulative benefit (bottom right corner of the table). Thanks @heltok. The formulas for summing each year's estimated benefit and the cumulative sums for each year were correct, so this mistake only affected the bottom-right cell in the table.

2) The Advanced Manufacturing tax credit of $45/kWh actually starts phasing out in 25% increments before expiration after 31 Dec 2032.
  • 100% ($45/kWh) from '23 through '29
  • 75% ($33.75/kWh) in '30
  • 50% ($22.5/kWh) in '31
  • 25% ($11.25/kWh) in '32
This makes a big difference to the potential total impact of the law if it stays as is, because Tesla’s exponential growth means most of their batteries will be sold in the later years of the credit scheme. However, I think the government is underestimating the total ten-year expenditure required to support this law all the way past 2030. Maybe they're expecting it to be changed in the next few years if Republicans take control of Congress and the Presidency. In any case, I'm pretty confident that the law is likely to stay as is at least through Biden's term, which ends in Jan 2025, because Biden has veto power over any bills that would revise the credit scheme, and also the Democrats currently have the majority in both houses in Congress.​

3) The 15% alternative minimum tax (AMT) for corporations does not affect Tesla’s ability to take advantage of the Advanced Manufacturing Production credit, which includes the $45/kWh battery credit plus other credits like solar photovoltaic production. This aligns with what @Usain had learned from Bradford Ferguson.
  • The credits "shall be treated as making a payment against the tax imposed by subtitle A...equal to the amount of such credit."
    • Subtitle A is the one for "CORPORATE TAX REFORM" and it's where the new 15% AMT is legislated
  • Because the credits are tax payments and not taxable income deductions, the credits not only could reduce Tesla’s total average US tax rate below 15%, but also Tesla might even end up paying a negative effective tax rate in the US because they will be generating so much credit value. If so, Tesla would receive a tax refund payment from the IRS.
  • For an entity like Tesla that would be subject to the 15% AMT, direct payment doesn’t apply to all of the credit types, but the 45X credit for $45/kWh for battery production is eligible.
As @The Accountant identified yesterday, under Section 6418 of the law, Tesla has the alternative option of selling their credits to other entities, similar to how they sell ZEV credits. Unlike ZEV credit revenue, this revenue would not be considered taxable income so it would go straight to profit. However, I don't see any obvious reason why Tesla would choose to transfer credits when they could claim 100% of the credit value by applying it to their own taxes. If they transferred credits, they'd have to spend time and resources on the process of negotiation and doing the transaction, and they'd also have to give away a portion of the value to the other party. The only advantage seems to be getting the cash sooner than waiting for a tax refund. Still, it's nice that this is possible in case Tesla is unable to claim the credits for itself for some obscure reason I'm not aware of, or in case Tesla wants the money immediately.​

Here is where the law says that the clean energy credits earned by an "applicable entity" are equivalent to tax payments:
SEC. 6417. ELECTIVE PAYMENT OF APPLICABLE CREDITS.
‘‘(a) IN GENERAL.—In the case of an applicable entity making an election (at such time and in such manner as the Secretary may provide) under this section with respect to any applicable credit determined with respect to such entity, such entity shall be treated as making a payment against the tax imposed by subtitle A (for the taxable year with respect to which such credit was determined) equal to the amount of such credit.
‘‘(b) APPLICABLE CREDIT.—The term ‘applicable credit’ means each of the following:

(7) The credit for advanced manufacturing production under section 45X(a).”

Tesla is not generally an “applicable entity” according to the definition, but for the 45X Advanced Manufacturing credits (and credits for clean hydrogen and carbon oxide sequestration) Tesla would be eligible per the special rules:
‘‘(1) APPLICABLE ENTITY.—
‘‘(A) IN GENERAL.—The term ‘applicable entity’ means— ‘‘(i) any organization exempt from the tax imposed by subtitle A,
‘‘(ii) any State or political subdivision thereof,
‘‘(iii) the Tennessee Valley Authority,
‘‘(iv) an Indian tribal government (as defined in section 30D(g)(9)),
‘‘(v) any Alaska Native Corporation (as defined in section 3 of the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act (43 U.S.C. 1602(m)), or
‘‘(vi) any corporation operating on a cooperative basis which is engaged in furnishing electric energy to persons in rural areas.
‘‘(D) ELECTION WITH RESPECT TO ADVANCED MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION CREDIT.—
‘‘(i) IN GENERAL.—If a taxpayer other than an entity described in subparagraph (A) makes an election under this subparagraph with respect to any taxable year in which such taxpayer has, after December 31, 2022, produced eligible components (as defined in section 45X(c)(1)), such taxpayer shall be treated as an applicable entity for purposes of this section for such taxable year, but only with respect to the credit described in subsection (b)(7).

Transfer of credits is governed by Sec 6418. Here's the key passage with respect to Tesla:
‘‘SEC. 6418. TRANSFER OF CERTAIN CREDITS.
‘‘(a) IN GENERAL.—In the case of an eligible taxpayer which elects to transfer all (or any portion specified in the election) of an eligible credit determined with respect to such taxpayer for any taxable year to a taxpayer (referred to in this section as the ‘transferee taxpayer’) which is not related (within the meaning of section 267(b) or 707(b)(1)) to the eligible taxpayer, the transferee taxpayer specified in such election (and not the eligible taxpayer) shall be treated as the taxpayer for purposes of this title with respect to such credit (or such portion thereof).
‘‘(b) TREATMENT OF PAYMENTS MADE IN CONNECTION WITH TRANSFER.—With respect to any amount paid by a transferee tax- payer to an eligible taxpayer as consideration for a transfer described in subsection (a), such consideration—
‘‘(1) shall be required to be paid in cash,
‘‘(2) shall not be includible in gross income of the eligible taxpayer, and
‘‘(3) with respect to the transferee taxpayer, shall not be deductible under this title.
f) DEFINITIONS.—For purposes of this section—
‘‘(1) ELIGIBLE CREDIT.—
‘‘(A) IN GENERAL.—The term ‘eligible credit’ means each
of the following:
…[List of the credits]…
‘‘(vi) The advanced manufacturing production credit determined under section 45X(a).

As someone who is not a lawyer or tax professional, I found Part 8 confusing to read, so I may have misinterpreted it, but this law firm says it too.​


Transferability​

Additional good news for the manufacturers of clean energy equipment is that both the section 48C credit and the section 45X credit qualify for the new transferability regime introduced by the Act. Under this new regime eligible taxpayers can transfer eligible credits to unrelated taxpayers for cash. Also, the payment is not taxable income to transferor and not deductible to transferee.[32] More on transferability regime can be found here....
...

Direct Pay​

  1. Direct Pay Under the Inflation Reduction Act
The Act also includes an option of direct pay. If the taxpayer, taking into account the deemed tax payment for the credits, had “overpaid” its taxes it could elect a cash refund from the IRS. In general, direct pay is available only to entities exempt from tax and to government entities, except for the section 45X credit (as well as the section 45Q (carbon capture) and section 45V (clean hydrogen production credit)), which allows businesses to apply for direct pay. More on direct pay can be found in this article.

As to whether a taxpayer would prefer to monetize its section 45C credits by selling them or applying for direct pay, direct pay means 100 cents on the dollar while a buyer is likely to pay something less than 100 cents on the dollar. However, a buyer may be willing to make its payment sooner than the IRS processes a direct payment application in connection with the tax return.

4) Other credits that affect Tesla's business positively but aren't in my table because they're smaller and harder for me to estimate.
  • Battery electrode active materials
    • 10% of cost
  • Solar photovoltaic material, cell, module and inverter manufacturing credits
    • $40/kW for thin film photovoltaic cells and crystalline photovoltaic cells
    • $12/square meter for photovoltaic wafers
    • $3/kg for solar-grade polysilicon
    • $0.40/square meter for polymeric backsheet
    • $70/kW for solar modules
    • For inverters per watt:
    • (i) in the case of a central inverter, 0.25 cents.​
    • (ii) in the case of a utility inverter, 1.5 cents​
    • (iii) in the case of a commercial inverter, 2 cents​
    • (iv) in the case of a residential inverter, 6.5 cents​
    • (v) in the case of a microinverter, 11 cents​
  • Clean electricity production
    • $3/MWh with adjustments for inflation over time
    • Expires after the later of 2032 or the first year in which greenhouse gas emissions from the production of electricity in the United States have dropped by at least 75% from 2022 baseline emissions levels
  • Clean energy investment
    • 6% of cost
    • Solar farms, batteries
  • Residential clean energy
    • Previously was 26% credit for solar systems
    • Now bumped back up to 30% until '33 with phaseout after that until '35 expiration
    • Batteries (e.g. Powerwall) now included in eligible expenses
5) Credits for stuff Tesla might do, or might partner with other companies to do, in the future:
  • Residential heat pumps
  • Residential or commercial energy efficiency upgrades
  • New energy efficient home construction
  • Carbon dioxide sequestration
  • Hydrogen production
Home heat pumps and heat pump water heaters are eligible for a 30% tax credit for individuals, up to $2k maximum. So a $6700 heat pump could get a 30% discount through 2032. We already know Tesla intends to enter this market eventually, and this tax credit may accelerate Tesla’s entry.​
Tesla's home heat pumps supposedly will be part of integrated thermal management and energy efficiency systems for buildings, so this government support will be substantial if and when Tesla starts selling these products in the US. I also remember rumors from 2020 that Tesla was involved with Brookfield for an experimental residential real estate development project to make a suburban subdivision near Austin. The New Energy Efficient Home credit had expired at the end of '21, but this law pushes back the deadline to 31 Dec 2032 and increases the credit​
SpaceX is working on making methane from CO2 captured from the atmosphere. They would also need hydrogen for the chemical reactions to transform the CO2 to CH4, so it looks like SpaceX will get these subsidies. If Tesla gets involved at all (they are apparently planning to scale up their own electric utility in Texas…) then Tesla too will get subsidies for CO2 sequestration and clean H2 production.​
6) The new $4k individual tax credit for pre-owned clean vehicles will not apply to Tesla, at least any time soon, because it is restricted to vehicles sold for less than $25k and right now used Tesla cars sell for at least double that. This tax credit is clearly directed more at helping people under the $75k income limit buy a more affordable economy EV like a Leaf or Bolt.

7) Overall, I’m still shocked that the US government actually passed a law with this much support for sustainable energy and fighting climate change. It’s not perfect, like how it gives the full $7.5k tax credit for hybrids, but on the whole this is a big deal and it will attract a bonanza of investment in North American production of the entire value chain of renewable energy from mines to end user to recycling. The biggest subsidies are going to clean vehicles, batteries, home solar & storage, home energy efficiency upgrades, and heat pumps, all of which are right in Tesla's wheelhouse now or a few years from now. It will come at substantial taxpayer cost though and the longevity of the law is questionable especially as we get to the later years of the 2020s and find that renewable energy (and Tesla) has scaled a wee bit faster than the Congressional Budget Office had planned for.

America has some of the highest per-capita energy consumption in the world, a large domestic oil&gas industry, and many prominent political leaders denying or dismissing the risks of continued dependence on fossil fuels. We went rogue and pulled out of the Paris Climate Accord in 2017. We invented the silicon photovoltaic cell in the 50s and the lithium-ion battery in the 70s, but then seemed content to put these technologies on the shelf and let the Japanese, Chinese and Koreans run with the tech for decades. I seriously did not expect this level of commitment to happen *ever*, let alone in 2022. I think the best case realistic outcome is that the law lasts until at least 2025, giving at least three solid years for a blitz of investment (that we’ve already seen beginning as soon as this law was signed) and then by 2026 that has hopefully established the industry enough that a diminished future credit schedule doesn’t have too much negative impact.
 
Last edited:

"Driving By Numbers: Canada's 10 best-selling EVs in 2022's first half​

Well, kinda-sorta... EV sales reporting is erratic, but these are the top-selling affordable, rebate-applicable EVs."

10. Mazda MX-30 (384) New
9. Kia Soul EV (403) down 26% from first half 2021
8. Kia Niro EV (425) down 58%
7. kia EV6 (458) New
6. Nissan Leaf (590) down 2%
5. Volkswagen ID.4 (983) New
4. Chevrolet Bolt (1042) down 68%
3 Hyundai Kona Electric (2,227) down 32%
2. Hyundai Ioniq (3,226) New
1. Tesla Model 3 (7,054) up 23%

As a Canadian living in Canada's most populous area I see Model Ys on the road to a ratio of 2:1 over Model 3s. You may wonder why Model Y is not in this list top 10 list of BEVs, that is because this list only includes rebate applicable EVs and currently Model Y is priced higher that the $55,000 CAD cap. Furthermore, "Tesla’s Model 3 price increase in late 2021 that removed the most affordable Tesla from rebate contention. Despite the Model 3’s current exclusion from the program, thousands of Model 3 customers benefited from rebates in early 2022 due to the timing of their order in 2021." So the quantity for Tesla Model 3 sales in first half 2022 is much higher than 7,054 noted above, and the Tesla Model Y likely higher quantity than that. Adding Model S & X and Tesla is selling >2X more BEVs than all other remaining competitors combined.

Take note of the numbers above that competition is not coming. For all BEV models that have been in production for more than one year, all other manufacturers saw their sales quantities drop (some significantly) year over year. Only Tesla Model 3 (and Y if it had been included in the above list) have seen (substantial) increase in year over year sales. Take that Moody's.

Screen Shot 2022-09-04 at 7.40.26 PM.png
 
Unfortunately the proper way of solving that particular behavior will never be solved using Teslas current architecture. A human deals with that by doing it wrong the first time and then remembering there is a stop sign there subsequent times. Tesla FSD has no memory like that. It approaches every intersection as if it were seeing it for the first time.

Are we sure about that?

Tesla has the ability to drive on unmapped routes, doesn't use high definition maps, but can capture enough information to produce simple vector maps with key indicators like stop signs and speed limits mapped.

When vision is clear, vision updates the vector map.

There is even a strong argument for the fleet map portion to be updated more frequently than the core software or the NN,

The maps also help with driving in snow and other situations with reduced vision.

Even if Tesla is not already doing fleet vector maps, it doesn't seem like a difficult addition. It seems like a simple / obvious thing to add with no real downside, Because when clear vision contradicts the map, vision takes priority. It is a small step up to mark particular stop signs as "hard to see", the penalty for displaying extra caution in this locations isn't significant.

I know who I think will solve FSD first, and I anticipate that second isn't really in the race at this stage.

EDIT: I see you also reached a similar conclusion.
 
Last edited:

"Driving By Numbers: Canada's 10 best-selling EVs in 2022's first half​

Well, kinda-sorta... EV sales reporting is erratic, but these are the top-selling affordable, rebate-applicable EVs."

10. Mazda MX-30 (384) New
9. Kia Soul EV (403) down 26% from first half 2021
8. Kia Niro EV (425) down 58%
7. kia EV6 (458) New
6. Nissan Leaf (590) down 2%
5. Volkswagen ID.4 (983) New
4. Chevrolet Bolt (1042) down 68%
3 Hyundai Kona Electric (2,227) down 32%
2. Hyundai Ioniq (3,226) New
1. Tesla Model 3 (7,054) up 23%

As a Canadian living in Canada's most populous area I see Model Ys on the road to a ratio of 2:1 over Model 3s. You may wonder why Model Y is not in this list top 10 list of BEVs, that is because this list only includes rebate applicable EVs and currently Model Y is priced higher that the $55,000 CAD cap. Furthermore, "Tesla’s Model 3 price increase in late 2021 that removed the most affordable Tesla from rebate contention. Despite the Model 3’s current exclusion from the program, thousands of Model 3 customers benefited from rebates in early 2022 due to the timing of their order in 2021." So the quantity for Tesla Model 3 sales in first half 2022 is much higher than 7,054 noted above, and the Tesla Model Y likely higher quantity than that. Adding Model S & X and Tesla is selling >2X more BEVs than all other remaining competitors combined.

Take note of the numbers above that competition is not coming. For all BEV models that have been in production for more than one year, all other manufacturers saw their sales quantities drop (some significantly) year over year. Only Tesla Model 3 (and Y if it had been included in the above list) have seen (substantial) increase in year over year sales. Take that Moody's.

View attachment 849002
Wouldn’t surprise me to see Shanghai made Y/3 SR models eventually make there way to Canada to sell under the rebate cap price.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: Words of HABIT
Well, those spot prices I quoted are not retail prices but wholesale prices, and are not including VAT nor any local taxes. That would be like 20 eurocents extra where I live.
Also, the cheapest spot price (for Belgium) is 21 cents at 2AM, highest is 57 cents at 7PM. It’s only since a couple of months that we have the ability to have per-hour dynamic pricing at the retail level, most electricity customers have a fixed price for the entire day (or 2 separate prices for peak and non-peak times).
I’m curious, what is your lowest rate, and during which time of the day?
The 3 choices for me with SCE are (lowest/highest):

EV plan $0.21 / $0.54
4pm to 9pm TOU $0.33 / $0.52
5pm to 8pm TOU $0.33 / $0.65

4pm to 9pm is highest for EV plan. All retail pricing, no taxes, or minimums.

We can continue either in PM or new thread if need be....
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: NicoV
7) Overall, I’m still shocked that the US government actually passed a law with this much support for sustainable energy and fighting climate change. It’s not perfect, like how it gives the full $7.5k tax credit for hybrids

Great post. Regarding Hybrids. With all these benefits, do hybrids even make sense anymore? Ie assume we have a chassi and are deciding to add a motor, an engine or both. Specially if we use LFP and assume the newer CATL cells going into production now. Maybe with the current inflation things will change in the future, but without it seems likely that BEV>PHEV financially given the $45/kWh discount.

Here is an exampleL
Start with a 10kWh and car body with a small electrical motor. You have the option:

1. Add another 40kWh and upgrade the motor. Assume $100/kWh at pack level. Cost $(100-45)*40=$2200 for batteries and $500 for the bigger motor = $2700

2. Add an ICE engine, tank, exhaust gearbox etc. Not sure exact costs but let's use this:
Screenshot 2022-09-05 at 09.12.12.png

So say $3000 for Engine and Auxilliary.

So difference is BEV-PHEV=-$300, ie BEV is cheaper than PHEV. Anyone can improve this back of the envelope calculation?

Then the question is how much are customers willing to pay for BEV over Hybrid? More recalls with double the systems? Better for FSD?

Imo Hybrid is meaningless with these new rules. Legacy might still sell a few of them, but they will not become more profitable per car than BEV. They are stupid, but they will likely not be meaningful in the large picture.
 
Last edited:
"That has never happened before in this part of CA, and I am seriously concerned about human health & power grid integrity if it transpires."

Wow, who knew he had climate data for the last 4.5 billion years for California?
Lol, be careful you will upset the cult. Religions dont like it when you poke holes in their dogma. They like their boogeyman, dont mess with the illusion.

What about the part where they developed a grid that cant handle it and then blame the evil humans in the usa (ignoring china) for the weather and then continue to develop policies that make it worse so they can keep blaming the boogeyman in a never ending death spiral that only communism can pull off.
 
Lol, be careful you will upset the cult. Religions dont like it when you poke holes in their dogma. They like their boogeyman, dont mess with the illusion.

What about the part where they developed a grid that cant handle it and then blame the evil humans in the usa (ignoring china) for the weather and then continue to develop policies that make it worse so they can keep blaming the boogeyman in a never ending death spiral that only communism can pull off.
2D25BD9C-2A00-483C-B1B0-D08D775E434A.jpeg
 
And yet I pay $0.54/kWh from 4pm to 9pm in California....prices set well before Russia invaded Ukraine, and yet the entire EU dealing with having significant amounts of their energy supply cut off by a nutty Russian president can do better. What's wrong with this picture?

EDIT: Technically the price was $0.49/kWh before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Europeans don't have to deal with PG&E who got paid to modernize their power lines and just gave all that money to shareholders. Then when they got sued for not maintaining power lines, they kept giving money to shareholders and shafted the customers.

This is the peril of government sanctioned monopoly.
 
I am not saying we need to keep talking about this topic on this thread, but I am happy that Alexandra has decided to continue her pursue for an upgrade based on her tweeter poll.

Looks like Fact Checking also voted yes, with good reason.


View attachment 848804

Edit: >> Looks like Elon's tweet is working to increase the pressure . . .

On Sept 3, The Street wrote:
. . . Musk, who has become the most powerful and influential CEO in the world with nearly 105 million followers on Twitter at last check, there is no institution or company that is untouchable. The rating agency Moody's has thus just learned the hard way.

In an incendiary tweet, the billionaire claims that Moody's is no longer relevant. . .


and The Street goes on to summarize the arguments twitters presented for an AAA rating.

. . . . . . and Hiro just weighed in on the Moody's debate.

 
John McElroy (of AutoLine Detroit show fame) evidently took notes when Munro is talking and wrote these Wards Auto article on how Tesla is leading fundamental changes to the auto manufacturing industry.

Unlearning What Toyota Taught Us

Nov 23, 2021
Today, the automotive world is changing. EV startups, notably Tesla, have ripped Toyota’s game plan to shreds. They’re moving at lightning speed, taking daring steps with new technology and breaking the old business models.

Why Automakers Need to Change the Way They’re Structured

Sep 01, 2022

Software-defined cars and skateboard-based BEVs are shaking up the old way of doing things. And it’s likely going to force OEMs to change their corporate structures, particularly in their engineering departments.
 
Last edited:
. . . . . . and Hiro just weighed in on the Moody's debate.

I agree. However new and old American auto companies have this high propensity to go bankrupt. The probability of default is 99% according to historical data.

Auto company that doesn't hold the bankruptcy title

Ford
Tesla

Auto company that has a junk bond status

Ford
Tesla

Auto companies that have gone bankrupt

Mod: put a few hundred lines into spoiler. --ggr.

A[edit]

B[edit]​

C[edit]​

D[edit]​

E[edit]​

F[edit]​

  • Fageol (1900, 1917)[83]
  • Fal-Car (1909–1914)[88]
    Also known as F.A.L.
  • Falcon Engineering Company (1907–1909)[83]
    Unrelated to Ford Falcon
  • Falcon-Knight (1927–1929)[83]
  • Famous (1908–1909)[83]
  • Fanning (1901–1903)[83]
  • Farmack (1915–1916)[83]
  • Farner (1922–1923)[83]
  • Faulkner-Blanchard (1910)
  • Federal (1907–1909)[83]
  • Federal Steam (1901–1902)[30]
  • Fenton (1913–1914)[83]
    Unrelated to Fenton Headers
  • Ferris (1920–1922)[2]
  • Fey Touring (1897–1906)[89][90]
  • Fiberfab (1964–1983)
  • Fidelia (1913–1914)[2]
  • Field (1886, 1905)[30]
  • Fina-Sport (1953–1954)
  • Firestone-Columbus (1909–1915)[83]
  • Fischer-Detroit (1914)
  • Fisher (1901–1905)[83]
  • Fisker Automotive (2007–2014)
  • Flagler (1914)[91]
    Based in Michigan
  • Flanders 20 (1910–1912)[83]
  • Flanders Manufacturing Company (1912–1914)[92]
  • Flanders (1913)
    'Flanders Six' model
  • Flexbi (1904)[83]
  • Flint (1923–1927)[83]
  • Flyer Motor Car Company (1913–1914)
  • Forest (1905–1906) Organized in Boston.[93]
  • Forest City[47] (1905[93])
    Manufactured as the Jewell beginning in 1906. Organized in Cleveland, Ohio, & named for the city nickname.[93]
  • Forsyth (circa 1896) Franklin, Minnesota; only a prototype built.[93]
  • Forth (1905)
    New York company, one of two of the same name, organized by Clarence Forth. No cars built. [94]
  • Forth (1910-1911)
    Mansfield, Ohio, company, one of two of the same name, organized by Clarence Forth. Only one prototype car assembled; went bankrupt late 1911.[95]
  • Fort Pitt[83] (1908–1910, 1911)
    Organized in New Kensington, Pennsylvania; moved to Pittsburgh 1911. Always known as the Pittsburgh Six[96]
  • Foster (1889,1901–1904)[30]
  • Fostoria (1906–1907)[83]
  • Fournier-Searchmont[97]
  • Fox (1921–1923)[83]
  • Franklin (1902–1934)
  • Frayer-Miller (1904–1910)[83]
  • Frazer (1946–1951)
  • Frederickson (1914)[83]
  • Fredonia (1902–1904)
  • Fremont (1920–1922)[83]
  • Friedman Automobile Company (1900–1903)[98]
  • Friend Motors Corporation (1920–1921)
  • Fritchle Electric (1905–1920)[83]
  • Frontenac (1906–1913)
  • Frontenac Motor Corporation (1921–1925)[83]
  • Frontmobile (1917–1918)[83]
  • F.R.P. (1914–1916)[83]
  • F.S. (1911–1912)[83][99]
  • Fuller (1908–1910)[83]
  • F.W.D. (1910–1912)[37]
    Based in Wisconsin

G[edit]​

H[edit]​



I[edit]​

J[edit]​

K[edit]​

L[edit]​



M[edit]​



N[edit]​

O[edit]​



P[edit]​



Q[edit]​

R[edit]​

S[edit]​

T[edit]​

U[edit]​

V[edit]​

W[edit]​

X[edit]​

Y[edit]​

Z[edit]​

  • Zehr (1912–1915)[3]
  • Zent (1900–1902, 1904–1906)[3]
  • Zentmobile (1903)[3]
  • Zimmer Motorcars (1978–1988)
  • Zimmerman (1908–1915)[3]
  • Zip (1913–1914)[3][/ISPOILER]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I agree. However new and old American auto companies have this high propensity to go bankrupt. The probability of default is 99% according to historical data.

Auto company that doesn't hold the bankruptcy title

Ford
Tesla

Auto company that has a junk bond status

Ford
Tesla

Auto companies that have gone bankrupt

A[edit]​

B[edit]​

C[edit]​

D[edit]​

E[edit]​

F[edit]​

  • Fageol (1900, 1917)[83]
  • Fal-Car (1909–1914)[88]
    Also known as F.A.L.
  • Falcon Engineering Company (1907–1909)[83]
    Unrelated to Ford Falcon
  • Falcon-Knight (1927–1929)[83]
  • Famous (1908–1909)[83]
  • Fanning (1901–1903)[83]
  • Farmack (1915–1916)[83]
  • Farner (1922–1923)[83]
  • Faulkner-Blanchard (1910)
  • Federal (1907–1909)[83]
  • Federal Steam (1901–1902)[30]
  • Fenton (1913–1914)[83]
    Unrelated to Fenton Headers
  • Ferris (1920–1922)[2]
  • Fey Touring (1897–1906)[89][90]
  • Fiberfab (1964–1983)
  • Fidelia (1913–1914)[2]
  • Field (1886, 1905)[30]
  • Fina-Sport (1953–1954)
  • Firestone-Columbus (1909–1915)[83]
  • Fischer-Detroit (1914)
  • Fisher (1901–1905)[83]
  • Fisker Automotive (2007–2014)
  • Flagler (1914)[91]
    Based in Michigan
  • Flanders 20 (1910–1912)[83]
  • Flanders Manufacturing Company (1912–1914)[92]
  • Flanders (1913)
    'Flanders Six' model
  • Flexbi (1904)[83]
  • Flint (1923–1927)[83]
  • Flyer Motor Car Company (1913–1914)
  • Forest (1905–1906) Organized in Boston.[93]
  • Forest City[47] (1905[93])
    Manufactured as the Jewell beginning in 1906. Organized in Cleveland, Ohio, & named for the city nickname.[93]
  • Forsyth (circa 1896) Franklin, Minnesota; only a prototype built.[93]
  • Forth (1905)
    New York company, one of two of the same name, organized by Clarence Forth. No cars built. [94]
  • Forth (1910-1911)
    Mansfield, Ohio, company, one of two of the same name, organized by Clarence Forth. Only one prototype car assembled; went bankrupt late 1911.[95]
  • Fort Pitt[83] (1908–1910, 1911)
    Organized in New Kensington, Pennsylvania; moved to Pittsburgh 1911. Always known as the Pittsburgh Six[96]
  • Foster (1889,1901–1904)[30]
  • Fostoria (1906–1907)[83]
  • Fournier-Searchmont[97]
  • Fox (1921–1923)[83]
  • Franklin (1902–1934)
  • Frayer-Miller (1904–1910)[83]
  • Frazer (1946–1951)
  • Frederickson (1914)[83]
  • Fredonia (1902–1904)
  • Fremont (1920–1922)[83]
  • Friedman Automobile Company (1900–1903)[98]
  • Friend Motors Corporation (1920–1921)
  • Fritchle Electric (1905–1920)[83]
  • Frontenac (1906–1913)
  • Frontenac Motor Corporation (1921–1925)[83]
  • Frontmobile (1917–1918)[83]
  • F.R.P. (1914–1916)[83]
  • F.S. (1911–1912)[83][99]
  • Fuller (1908–1910)[83]
  • F.W.D. (1910–1912)[37]
    Based in Wisconsin

G[edit]​

H[edit]​



I[edit]​

J[edit]​

K[edit]​

L[edit]​



M[edit]​



N[edit]​

O[edit]​



P[edit]​



Q[edit]​

R[edit]​

S[edit]​

T[edit]​

U[edit]​

V[edit]​

W[edit]​

X[edit]​

Y[edit]​

Z[edit]​

  • Zehr (1912–1915)[3]
  • Zent (1900–1902, 1904–1906)[3]
  • Zentmobile (1903)[3]
  • Zimmer Motorcars (1978–1988)
  • Zimmerman (1908–1915)[3]
  • Zip (1913–1914)[3]

I'm suing you for finger-scrolling fatigue.