Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

The Apple Car is damned near irrelevant to Tesla shareholders.

The only reason it's brought up so frequently is as part of the "Competition is coming" narrative. But that argument is irrelevant.

Tesla is big enough and strong enough, they will succeed or fail in this industry based on the merits of their products and the skill of their engineers. People always talk about competition, but ultimately if your company makes a fantastic product, it will survive regardless of competition. This is ironically how Apple survived so long and expanded in spite of massive competition.

It is entirely possible Apple partners with someone to make their cars and eventually becomes successful in this space. It's going to take them 5+ years for Apple + an ideal partner to get to the scale Tesla is today and in that time Tesla will be 7x bigger than it is now.

So long as Tesla continues on their current course, they are immune to Apple. They might lose some customers, but there is still a massive untapped market. So long as Tesla continues to make the efficient cars most people love, they make them efficiently, and they retain their Supercharger network, nobody will slow demand for Tesla cars.

The ones who should be worried about Apple are GM and Ford. Any new entrant is going to be taking market share away from them. These guys should be **begging** to partner with Apple to take over their car computers and help release the Apple car of the future.

 

[raffiniert]

some long rides—up to 300K

now that is seriously long.

I mean, 300km would be a good ride for most, but 300'000 is more than 8 times around the globe, which is nothing short of remarkable.

Sorry, could not resist.

Learning: use units, and use the right one ;-)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The Apple Car is damned near irrelevant to Tesla shareholders.

The only reason it's brought up so frequently is as part of the "Competition is coming" narrative. But that argument is irrelevant.

Tesla is big enough and strong enough, they will succeed or fail in this industry based on the merits of their products and the skill of their engineers. People always talk about competition, but ultimately if your company makes a fantastic product, it will survive regardless of competition. This is ironically how Apple survived so long and expanded in spite of massive competition.

It is entirely possible Apple partners with someone to make their cars and eventually becomes successful in this space. It's going to take them 5+ years for Apple + an ideal partner to get to the scale Tesla is today and in that time Tesla will be 7x bigger than it is now.

So long as Tesla continues on their current course, they are immune to Apple. They might lose some customers, but there is still a massive untapped market. So long as Tesla continues to make the efficient cars most people love, they make them efficiently, and they retain their Supercharger network, nobody will slow demand for Tesla cars.

The ones who should be worried about Apple are GM and Ford. Any new entrant is going to be taking market share away from them. These guys should be **begging** to partner with Apple to take over their car computers and help release the Apple car of the future.

Your post actually brings up another point.

Since Tesla controls the entire ecosystem (manufacturing, software suite on both FSD and Entertainment, and things like Insurance), Tesla at a scale of 3X what it is today could engage in the mother of all price wars and bankrupt most of the industry if they really wanted to.

Say Apple does sign a partnership with say GM......and let's say Apple gives them 15% of the software profits (which I think is highly unlikely would likely be more in the 5-10% range), Tesla could undercut the retail of GM so hard that it would cause GM to collapse.....and well there goes Apple's ticket into the market.

 

[AndrewZ]

Nice:

Tesla Receives €50M Order from German Car Subscription Provider Fleetpool

Tesla has received another big, €50 million, order from German car subscription provider Fleetpool. The company will purchase the Model 3 and Model Y from Tesla for offering to both corporate and private customers.

www.tesmanian.com

I suspect that larger fleet orders like this and from places like Hertz etc are why Long Range Model 3s and Ys have been so backlogged, because I haven't seen one yet that offers rental Performance variants (although I'm sure they exist)

 

[Carl Raymond]

I’m feeling bad about posting Yaman Tasdivar (valueAnalyst) sky high forecast yesterday. On rereading I could not see that his argument justified his conclusions.

Here is a bearish tweet thread about the cost of inverters in Megapacks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567105785502507009

 

[Ogre]

Your post actually brings up another point.

Since Tesla controls the entire ecosystem (manufacturing, software suite on both FSD and Entertainment, and things like Insurance), Tesla at a scale of 3X what it is today could engage in the mother of all price wars and bankrupt most of the industry if they really wanted to.

Say Apple does sign a partnership with say GM......and let's say Apple gives them 15% of the software profits (which I think is highly unlikely would likely be more in the 5-10% range), Tesla could undercut the retail of GM so hard that it would cause GM to collapse.....and well there goes Apple's ticket into the market.

People (present company excepted) vastly underestimate how big Tesla’s manufacturing advantage is right now.

The only reason I mentioned BYD being as close to an ideal partner upthread was because they are one of the few companies which makes EVs near the scale Tesla does (and most of their sales are tiny China only vehicles). But even they can’t seem to turn a profit doing it. In spite of the fact that the Chinese have a reputation for out-manufacturing everyone, Tesla is beating the Chinese makers at their own game.

As you suggest, in a pinch, Tesla could engage in a price war and wipe the floor with the rest of the industry. That is neither in their best interests, nor is it consistent with their mission at the current point, so they haven’t yet.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla stock is big buy, Goldman Sachs says

Tesla's stock remains a buy at Goldman Sachs. Here's why.

finance.yahoo.com

tesla-stock-is-a-big-buy-says-goldman-sachs-61717

"Despite the stock's rise, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney believes there is more upside to Tesla. Delaney's hot take comes after a meeting with Tesla's head of investor relations Martin Viecha. what Delaney had to say on Tesla following that pow-wow.

• Price Target: $333.33
• Rating: Buy (reiterated)
• Stock price movement assumed: +22%

Takeaway #1: Tesla's costs are headed lower​

Takeaway #2: Tesla is a winner from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)​

Takeaway #3: Tight EV supply supports higher prices, profits"​

 

[2daMoon]

I seem to recall reading that Tesla's agreement with China includes that the money made there stays there. So, if they are making profits, Tesla's best choice is to build more factories there with any money beyond expenses.

Granted, exports likely result in some profits that may not go back to China. If this is the sort of arrangement they have, it aligns Tesla with China's success and growth. Which, to me, is a good thing.

Seems as though it was someone like Jefferson that went on about how the easiest way to "conquer" another nation is to trade with them. I think Elon got the memo on that, which is what made his deal the first like it in recent history.

 

[Todd Burch]

Tesla stock is big buy, Goldman Sachs says

Tesla's stock remains a buy at Goldman Sachs. Here's why.

finance.yahoo.com

tesla-stock-is-a-big-buy-says-goldman-sachs-61717

"Despite the stock's rise, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney believes there is more upside to Tesla. Delaney's hot take comes after a meeting with Tesla's head of investor relations Martin Viecha. what Delaney had to say on Tesla following that pow-wow.

• Price Target: $333.33
• Rating: Buy (reiterated)
• Stock price movement assumed: +22%

Takeaway #1: Tesla's costs are headed lower​

Takeaway #2: Tesla is a winner from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)​

Takeaway #3: Tight EV supply supports higher prices, profits"​

Despite the stock's rise? We're down 33% from ATH, lol. Of course there's freaking upside.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla stock is big buy, Goldman Sachs says

Tesla's stock remains a buy at Goldman Sachs. Here's why.

finance.yahoo.com

tesla-stock-is-a-big-buy-says-goldman-sachs-61717

"Despite the stock's rise, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney believes there is more upside to Tesla. Delaney's hot take comes after a meeting with Tesla's head of investor relations Martin Viecha. what Delaney had to say on Tesla following that pow-wow.

• Price Target: $333.33
• Rating: Buy (reiterated)
• Stock price movement assumed: +22%

Takeaway #1: Tesla's costs are headed lower​

Takeaway #2: Tesla is a winner from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)​

Takeaway #3: Tight EV supply supports higher prices, profits"​

I would love it if we could get in a habit of posting said Analysts EPS estimates as well when we post stuff.

Not trying to call you out at all. Just even the bullish analysts still have very low earnings estimates for the rest of this year and especially 2023-2025.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Tesla stock is big buy, Goldman Sachs says

Tesla's stock remains a buy at Goldman Sachs. Here's why.

finance.yahoo.com

tesla-stock-is-a-big-buy-says-goldman-sachs-61717

"Despite the stock's rise, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney believes there is more upside to Tesla. Delaney's hot take comes after a meeting with Tesla's head of investor relations Martin Viecha. what Delaney had to say on Tesla following that pow-wow.

• Price Target: $333.33
• Rating: Buy (reiterated)
• Stock price movement assumed: +22%

Takeaway #1: Tesla's costs are headed lower​

Takeaway #2: Tesla is a winner from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)​

Takeaway #3: Tight EV supply supports higher prices, profits"​

So she's stated the most obvious facts about Tesla possible. That's a step ahead of the average equity analyst.

 

[thesmokingman]

So she's stated the most obvious facts about Tesla possible. That's a step ahead of the average equity analyst.

Yea, especially in the context of where Goldman was with Tesla just a few short years ago.

 

[EVMeister]

So she's stated the most obvious facts about Tesla possible. That's a step ahead of the average equity analyst.

Mark Delaney is a she?

 

[Stretch2727]

Here is a bearish tweet thread about the cost of inverters in Megapacks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567105785502507009

ON Semi is scaling SiC big time.

NIO has a contract with them. Lots of rumors Tesla is/will be using them. Company management will not comment on direct customers but they have a plan to focus on EV's and Battery Storage with SiC.

The Semiconductor industry will respond and bring the price down. I don't think this has the same challenge as batteries.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Eh, sorry but I can't even remotely get excited for an outperformance day on the first day of the week. It just means TSLA is being positioned for options and if you look at options volumes today, it's heavy on the 270 Puts. So I'd wager this is just MM's keep the stock out of reach of that. Plus volume is still weak.

Usually when TSLA's outperformance to start a week is options related, it means that it's going to underperform if the macro's make a rally throughout the week. There's really nothing to get excited about until we see some trends showing continued outperformance ( and most importantly on macro green days).

Just nothing to do but count the days down till Oct 2nd.

I'm not that cynical. EVs, solar, and renewables all did great today. I think that part of the market is reacting positively to the "IRA". The solar element of my portfolio did particularly well today.

 

[SmokyPeat]

now that is seriously long.

I mean, 300km would be a good ride for most, but 300'000 is more than 8 times around the globe, which is nothing short of remarkable.

Sorry, could not resist.

Learning: use units, and use the right one ;-)

Sheesh. When someone runs in a 10k race that must be quite troubling for you.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Despite the stock's rise? We're down 33% from ATH, lol. Of course there's freaking upside.

Author should have specified "despite teh stock's (recent) rise. Yes, TSLA is down 33% from ATH beginning of the year, however TSLA is up 33% from the lows of late May.

I would love it if we could get in a habit of posting said Analysts EPS estimates as well when we post stuff.

Not trying to call you out at all. Just even the bullish analysts still have very low earnings estimates for the rest of this year and especially 2023-2025.

Agree analysts EPS estimates are low, however with Russia's continued invasion of Ukraine, China threats to Taiwan's sovereignty, and an unprecedented global warming crises (1 in a 1000 year floods, fires, heat waves), all affecting trade routes, manufacturing supply chains, chip shortages, inflation, and weaponizing oil and gas, I'll cut them some slack for being cautious. Very few analysts forcast for more than one year. In my books any analysis forcast for higher share price than we are trading today works fine my me. We can't expect analysts to truly understand Tesla except a few like Ron Baron. And we should be greatful that TMC gives us the information edge over these professionals. Knowledge is power. What we do with this knowledge is up to us.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Sorry, didn’t mean to offend.

As a cyclist who has been intentionally sprayed with gravel by pickups going onto the shoulder in front of me, has been coal rolled by them, who has done some long rides—up to 300K—in various places with some unpleasant encounters, and who has had many scares from oblivious motorists including while bicycle commuting across decades (in the Bay Area no less), I intended this as a kind of gallows humor.

At risk of offending further, I’ll share my not entirely tongue-in-cheek warning for would-be bicycle commuters: 10% of the drivers try to be courteous and wind up doing unpredictable things, 80% of drivers are oblivious and dangerous, and 10% of the drivers are actively trying to kill you.

Even with this attitude, I still wound up with one good scare a year and an accident (mostly pratfalls thank goodness) about every five years on average, though these days I’m mainly Zwifting.

YMMV

As a motorcyclist I just assume 100% of drivers are trying to kill me and ride accordingly. And that's with obeying traffic laws (well, except perhaps speed limits) and not holding up traffic.

 

[WattsHappening]

Tesla stock is big buy, Goldman Sachs says

Tesla's stock remains a buy at Goldman Sachs. Here's why.

finance.yahoo.com

tesla-stock-is-a-big-buy-says-goldman-sachs-61717

"Despite the stock's rise, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney believes there is more upside to Tesla. Delaney's hot take comes after a meeting with Tesla's head of investor relations Martin Viecha. what Delaney had to say on Tesla following that pow-wow.

• Price Target: $333.33
• Rating: Buy (reiterated)
• Stock price movement assumed: +22%

Takeaway #1: Tesla's costs are headed lower​

Takeaway #2: Tesla is a winner from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)​

Takeaway #3: Tight EV supply supports higher prices, profits"​

That's several Wall Street firms who have raised their price targets over the last week or two. Wait until they run numbers after Q3 earnings are released. They will have to revise their full year 2023 estimates as well as 2024. We should expect a slew of upgrades and target price increases. Not sure what that means to the SP, as that is still being driven most by macros.

But try to be patient and HODL! Just a matter of time. I say that as much to myself as to you all, as I am very impatient to see the rocket ship take off.

 

[WolfHero]

What's with these plus/minus $15 crazy swing in after hours?