Do Reduced Wait Times mean a Reduced Backlog? I'm not so sure.
Delivery wait times not only factor increases in production at all four vehicle plants but also takes into consideration the increased capacity expected in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. It is possible that the backlog is the same or greater even if the wait times come down.
It is also possible the backlog has come down as there have been huge price increases and a weakening economy.
One way we may know is to look at the Customer Deposits on the Balance Sheet when Q3 is published. It that number goes up, I suspect the backlog has not dropped.
The increase of $94m in Q4 2021 and $200m in Q1 2023 (see chart below) had the effect of an increasing backlog and the fact that Tesla changed deposits from $100 to $250 in the US on Aug 2021. But the $100 deposit backlog is all but flushed out as of today so any change in the Customer Order amount in Q3 should be driven by orders.
The customer orders cover Energy and Auto and within Auto the Semi, CT and Roadster but I believe the movement in this number is driven mainly from the churn on the S3XY auto orders.
Let's see what the Q3 numbers show us.
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