I haven't been tracking volume all that closely beyond "its really low". Is the current volume also adjusted for the split (or pre-split volume adjusted)? I'm wondering if the split has brought an additional 2/3rds reduction in volume as measured by value rather than shares.
Exactly what I think, too.
Yes, average volume has been adjusted for the split. Prior to the split, the average was around 30M. Right after the split, the average was 90M. It's been trending down ever since due to lack of volume since the split.
Average volume before split was in the high twenty millions per day.
This is my sense also. A continuing point of emphasis has become the # of job opening compared to the # of job seekers (I assume that these are the numbers in the official unemployed metric). I expect something a lot closer to 1:1 from the 2+:1 that we've got right now.
Was just coming to post this exact thing.
Even though overall volume was low today, it's great to see big green towers at the start and the end of the trading day!
This inspired me to look into Amazon's financials and other companies valued more than Tesla. I think you're right here.
www.macrotrends.net
companiesmarketcap.com
| Q1 2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | |
| Vehicle deliveries | 310,048 | 254,695 | 371,752 | 489,457 | 578,123 | 668,171 | 735,556 | 813,516 |
| Auto Rev excl ZEV creds | $ 16,182 | $ 14,258 | $ 20,804 | $ 28,389 | $ 34,109 | $ 40,090 | $ 44,869 | $ 50,438 |
| Auto CoGS | $ (11,322) | $ (10,521) | $ (14,672) | $ (19,073) | $ (21,951) | $ (25,026) | $ (27,159) | $ (29,602) |
| ZEV Credits | $ 679 | $ 344 | $ 420 | $ 469 | $ 469 | $ 469 | $ 469 | $ 469 |
| ZEV cred rev per veh | $ 2.2 | $ 1.4 | $ 1.1 | $ 1.0 | $ 0.8 | $ 0.7 | $ 0.6 | $ 0.6 |
| Auto Gross Profit excl ZEV creds | $ 4,860 | $ 3,737 | $ 6,131 | $ 9,315 | $ 12,158 | $ 15,064 | $ 17,710 | $ 20,836 |
| Avg Rev per Vehicle excl ZEV creds | $ 52.2 | $ 56.0 | $ 56.0 | $ 58.0 | $ 59.0 | $ 60.0 | $ 61.0 | $ 62.0 |
| Avg CoGS per Vehicle | $ (36.5) | $ (41.3) | $ (39.5) | $ (39.0) | $ (38.0) | $ (37.5) | $ (36.9) | $ (36.4) |
| Avg Gross Profit per Vehicle excl ZEV creds | $ 15.7 | $ 14.7 | $ 16.5 | $ 19.0 | $ 21.0 | $ 22.5 | $ 24.1 | $ 25.6 |
| Gross Margin excl ZEV creds | 30.0% | 26.2% | 29.5% | 32.8% | 35.6% | 37.6% | 39.5% | 41.3% |
| Auto Rev | $ 16,861 | $ 14,602 | $ 21,223 | $ 28,857 | $ 34,578 | $ 40,559 | $ 45,338 | $ 50,907 |
| Auto Gross Profit | $ 5,539 | $ 4,081 | $ 6,551 | $ 9,784 | $ 12,627 | $ 15,533 | $ 18,178 | $ 21,305 |
| Avg Rev per Veh | $ 54.4 | $ 57.3 | $ 57.1 | $ 59.0 | $ 59.8 | $ 60.7 | $ 61.6 | $ 62.6 |
| Avg Gross Profit per Veh | $ 17.9 | $ 16.0 | $ 17.6 | $ 20.0 | $ 21.8 | $ 23.2 | $ 24.7 | $ 26.2 |
| Auto Gross Margin | 32.9% | 27.9% | 30.9% | 33.9% | 36.5% | 38.3% | 40.1% | 41.9% |
| Research & Development | $ (865) | $ (667) | $ (700) | $ (735) | $ (772) | $ (811) | $ (851) | $ (894) |
| Selling, General & Administrative | $ (992) | $ (961) | $ (990) | $ (1,020) | $ (1,050) | $ (1,082) | $ (1,114) | $ (1,147) |
| Restructuring & Other | $ - | $ (142) | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ (1,857) | $ (1,770) | $ (1,690) | $ (1,755) | $ (1,822) | $ (1,892) | $ (1,965) | $ (2,041) |
| OpEx as % of Auto Gross Profit | 34% | 43% | 26% | 18% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 10% |
| Energy Generation and Storage Rev | $ 616 | $ 866 | $ 1,299 | $ 1,949 | $ 2,923 | $ 4,384 | $ 4,823 | $ 5,305 |
| Energy Gen and Store Cost | $ (688) | $ (769) | $ (1,077) | $ (1,507) | $ (2,261) | $ (3,391) | $ (3,730) | $ (4,103) |
| Energy Gen and Store Gross Profit | $ (72) | $ 97 | $ 222 | $ 441 | $ 662 | $ 993 | $ 1,092 | $ 1,201 |
| Energy Gen and Store Gross Margin % | -12% | 11% | 17% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
| Services & Other Rev | $ 1,279 | $ 1,466 | $ 1,616 | $ 1,766 | $ 1,916 | $ 2,066 | $ 2,216 | $ 2,366 |
| Services & Other Cost | $ (1,286) | $ (1,410) | $ (1,530) | $ (1,650) | $ (1,770) | $ (1,890) | $ (2,010) | $ (2,130) |
| Services & Other Gross Profit | $ (7) | $ 56 | $ 86 | $ 116 | $ 146 | $ 176 | $ 206 | $ 236 |
| Services & Other Gross Margin % | -0.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% |
| Income Tax provision | $ (346) | $ (205) | $ (600) | $ (1,200) | $ (1,700) | $ (2,200) | $ (2,500) | $ (3,000) |
| Share count fully diluted (B) | 3.471 | 3.465 | 3.519 | 3.573 | 3.627 | 3.681 | 3.735 | 3.789 |
| GAAP Net Income | $ 3.32 | $ 2.26 | $ 4.57 | $ 7.39 | $ 9.91 | $ 12.64 | $ 15.04 | $ 17.73 |
| GAAP Earnings per Share | $ 0.96 | $ 0.65 | $ 1.30 | $ 2.07 | $ 2.73 | $ 3.43 | $ 4.03 | $ 4.68 |
| Non-GAAP Earnings per Share | $ 1.08 | $ 0.76 | $ 1.40 | $ 2.17 | $ 2.83 | $ 3.53 | $ 4.12 | $ 4.77 |
Yep. and I am just hoping there will be an aftermarket 'wedge" camper top to make it into a low slung van, or a high-top station wagon.
This inspired me to look into Amazon's financials and other companies valued more than Tesla. I think you're right here.
Amazon compared to Tesla:
Here are the rough numbers for Amazon before the recent slowdown in the last year:
- 2x less revenue compound annual growth rate
- Gross margin % in low 40s, about equal to where Tesla will be in 2024 with new factories ramped up
- 2-3x less operating/net margin, and Tesla's lead is widening due to operating leverage increasing
- Heavy competition in online retail segment and moderate threat from Microsoft Azure in cloud services, vs Tesla being absurdly far ahead of competitors
Growth
Revenue: 30% per yearEarnings per share: 80% per yearOperating Income: 80% per yearMargins:
Gross: 42%Operating: 4 to 6%
Income:
Gross: $200BOperating: $30B
View attachment 851727
View attachment 851795
Amazon Revenue 2010-2023 | AMZN
Amazon annual/quarterly revenue history and growth rate from 2010 to 2023. Revenue can be defined as the amount of money a company receives from its customers in exchange for the sales of goods or services. Revenue is the top line item on an income statement from which all costs and expenses...
Right now my Tesla model for 2023 has deliveries of 2.8M and gross profit per car rising into the low-to-mid $20k range as Tesla improves on both the revenue and cost sides of the equation. Opex will stay under $8B I think. I've recently incorporated the $45/kWh US tax credit for batteries to cost on both cars from Fremont and Austin and also stationary storage, which has a big impact on margins. My thesis hasn't significantly changed from earlier this year other than the US sustainable energy tax advantages being finalized. I'm just trying to estimate the impact of the remaining price rises, mix shift, cost savings, etc.
The combined effect is a profit bonanza of $55B GAAP net income. I almost can't believe it but I derived each number independently of the others as best I could and I've spent months trying to figure out if I've lost my mind yet I keep getting similar results.
So I'm projecting Tesla to crush Amazon on earnings next year in addition to the better growth and margins, but as of today Amazon has a market cap more than 30% higher than Tesla's. How much longer can this last? How much longer until Tesla has the highest market cap?
View attachment 851830
Companies ranked by Market Cap - CompaniesMarketCap.com
Ranking the world's top companies by market cap, market value, revenue and many more metrics
View attachment 851858
- Apple makes steady profit with good margins but they're growing slowly. It took them 4 years to double net income from $50B to $100B, and that happened mainly because of a spike in 2020.
View attachment 851855
- Saudi Aramco is in an industry facing secular decline towards extinction with no hope of long-term salvation, and their products are commodities with wildly variable prices. Tesla's rise will make this reality increasingly obvious over the next few years. It looks like the long-feared Peak Oil quietly happened in 2019 without much fanfare.
View attachment 851857
- Microsoft and Alphabet have similar financials with about $75B annual earnings growing about 40% per year or so. They've both been doubling earnings every 2-3 years. Excellent, but still much slower than Tesla. They also have good margins, but less than where Tesla will be in 2023 according to my projections.
So there really is no one and nothing stopping Tesla from becoming the world's most valuable company within the next two years in my opinion. When Tesla gets to Microsoft and Alphabet level earnings by around 2024 and are still showing growth above 50% per year, it's hard to see Tesla shooting to #1 at around $3T market cap.
Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Vehicle deliveries 310,048 254,695 371,752 489,457 578,123 668,171 735,556 813,516 Auto Rev excl ZEV creds $ 16,182 $ 14,258 $ 20,804 $ 28,389 $ 34,109 $ 40,090 $ 44,869 $ 50,438 Auto CoGS $ (11,322) $ (10,521) $ (14,672) $ (19,073) $ (21,951) $ (25,026) $ (27,159) $ (29,602) ZEV Credits $ 679 $ 344 $ 420 $ 469 $ 469 $ 469 $ 469 $ 469 ZEV cred rev per veh $ 2.2 $ 1.4 $ 1.1 $ 1.0 $ 0.8 $ 0.7 $ 0.6 $ 0.6 Auto Gross Profit excl ZEV creds $ 4,860 $ 3,737 $ 6,131 $ 9,315 $ 12,158 $ 15,064 $ 17,710 $ 20,836 Avg Rev per Vehicle excl ZEV creds $ 52.2 $ 56.0 $ 56.0 $ 58.0 $ 59.0 $ 60.0 $ 61.0 $ 62.0 Avg CoGS per Vehicle $ (36.5) $ (41.3) $ (39.5) $ (39.0) $ (38.0) $ (37.5) $ (36.9) $ (36.4) Avg Gross Profit per Vehicle excl ZEV creds $ 15.7 $ 14.7 $ 16.5 $ 19.0 $ 21.0 $ 22.5 $ 24.1 $ 25.6 Gross Margin excl ZEV creds 30.0% 26.2% 29.5% 32.8% 35.6% 37.6% 39.5% 41.3% Auto Rev $ 16,861 $ 14,602 $ 21,223 $ 28,857 $ 34,578 $ 40,559 $ 45,338 $ 50,907 Auto Gross Profit $ 5,539 $ 4,081 $ 6,551 $ 9,784 $ 12,627 $ 15,533 $ 18,178 $ 21,305 Avg Rev per Veh $ 54.4 $ 57.3 $ 57.1 $ 59.0 $ 59.8 $ 60.7 $ 61.6 $ 62.6 Avg Gross Profit per Veh $ 17.9 $ 16.0 $ 17.6 $ 20.0 $ 21.8 $ 23.2 $ 24.7 $ 26.2 Auto Gross Margin 32.9% 27.9% 30.9% 33.9% 36.5% 38.3% 40.1% 41.9% Research & Development $ (865) $ (667) $ (700) $ (735) $ (772) $ (811) $ (851) $ (894) Selling, General & Administrative $ (992) $ (961) $ (990) $ (1,020) $ (1,050) $ (1,082) $ (1,114) $ (1,147) Restructuring & Other $ - $ (142) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Total Operating Expenses $ (1,857) $ (1,770) $ (1,690) $ (1,755) $ (1,822) $ (1,892) $ (1,965) $ (2,041) OpEx as % of Auto Gross Profit 34% 43% 26% 18% 14% 12% 11% 10% Energy Generation and Storage Rev $ 616 $ 866 $ 1,299 $ 1,949 $ 2,923 $ 4,384 $ 4,823 $ 5,305 Energy Gen and Store Cost $ (688) $ (769) $ (1,077) $ (1,507) $ (2,261) $ (3,391) $ (3,730) $ (4,103) Energy Gen and Store Gross Profit $ (72) $ 97 $ 222 $ 441 $ 662 $ 993 $ 1,092 $ 1,201 Energy Gen and Store Gross Margin % -12% 11% 17% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% Services & Other Rev $ 1,279 $ 1,466 $ 1,616 $ 1,766 $ 1,916 $ 2,066 $ 2,216 $ 2,366 Services & Other Cost $ (1,286) $ (1,410) $ (1,530) $ (1,650) $ (1,770) $ (1,890) $ (2,010) $ (2,130) Services & Other Gross Profit $ (7) $ 56 $ 86 $ 116 $ 146 $ 176 $ 206 $ 236 Services & Other Gross Margin % -0.5% 3.8% 5.3% 6.6% 7.6% 8.5% 9.3% 10.0% Income Tax provision $ (346) $ (205) $ (600) $ (1,200) $ (1,700) $ (2,200) $ (2,500) $ (3,000) Share count fully diluted (B) 3.471 3.465 3.519 3.573 3.627 3.681 3.735 3.789 GAAP Net Income $ 3.32 $ 2.26 $ 4.57 $ 7.39 $ 9.91 $ 12.64 $ 15.04 $ 17.73 GAAP Earnings per Share $ 0.96 $ 0.65 $ 1.30 $ 2.07 $ 2.73 $ 3.43 $ 4.03 $ 4.68 Non-GAAP Earnings per Share $ 1.08 $ 0.76 $ 1.40 $ 2.17 $ 2.83 $ 3.53 $ 4.12 $ 4.77
Neither investment nor financial advice. Just my model.
Recently heard that the back seat is 6 foot wide. If true, that means I can probably work something for sleeping in the cabin in camping mode and enjoy the stars.
I think it mainly comes down to this number which Tesla will surpass next year and when it does (NOT if) and it passes Apple, we get to be the most valuable company on the planet as the growth rate might be continuing to get higher. And I don't believe you've included Tesla recognizing FSD monies in your model?
What I hate about the so-called Airstream, is that the aerodynamics of it are not early as good as the name says it is. They could have kept a lot of the interior space instead of narrowing the whole thing by 8" and instead focus on tapering the rear of the trailer so it leaves less of a wake.While it doesn't contain a release date, this writeup from Airstream is pretty informative:
The Airstream eStream Concept: An Electrifying Promise for the Future of Travel and Adventure
the eStream Concept Travel Trailer is a vision for how we’ll hit the road in the coming years.www.airstream.com
I agree with your thoughts when it comes to aerodynamics on this prototype; however, if you took at both the Basecamp model I referenced earlier and also the Bambi(?), it looks like they've done exactly what you mentioned around the backend. Hopefully they'll incorporate those aerodynamic aspects when they eventually release the e-Stream.
So if chips and cells are not the limiting factor then what is?
I know we feel it hasn't been a great year for TSLA. but in fact we're up 22% (nothin' to sneeze at), and TSLA is best among tech cos.:
View attachment 851690
And think about all the Meta investors! TSLA is now worth more than double what used to be Facebook:
View attachment 851709
Companies ranked by Market Cap - CompaniesMarketCap.com
Ranking the world's top companies by market cap, market value, revenue and many more metrics
No risk of embarrassment. I found a typo in my auto cost column that wasn't calculating the $45/kWh tax credit for Austin cars, only Fremont ones. I edited the table as follows. I get $5/share in Q4 2023 now too
| Q1 2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | |
| Vehicle deliveries | 310,048 | 254,695 | 371,752 | 489,457 | 578,123 | 668,171 | 735,556 | 813,516 |
| Auto Rev excl ZEV creds | $ 16,182 | $ 14,258 | $ 20,804 | $ 28,389 | $ 34,109 | $ 40,090 | $ 44,869 | $ 50,438 |
| Auto CoGS | $ (11,322) | $ (10,521) | $ (14,672) | $ (19,073) | $ (21,391) | $ (24,246) | $ (26,216) | $ (28,460) |
| ZEV Credits | $ 679 | $ 344 | $ 525 | $ 584 | $ 584 | $ 584 | $ 584 | $ 584 |
| ZEV cred rev per veh | $ 2.2 | $ 1.4 | $ 1.4 | $ 1.2 | $ 1.0 | $ 0.9 | $ 0.8 | $ 0.7 |
| Auto Gross Profit excl ZEV creds | $ 4,860 | $ 3,737 | $ 6,131 | $ 9,315 | $ 12,718 | $ 15,845 | $ 18,653 | $ 21,978 |
| Avg Rev per Vehicle excl ZEV creds | $ 52.2 | $ 56.0 | $ 56.0 | $ 58.0 | $ 59.0 | $ 60.0 | $ 61.0 | $ 62.0 |
| Avg CoGS per Vehicle | $ (36.5) | $ (41.3) | $ (39.5) | $ (39.0) | $ (37.0) | $ (36.3) | $ (35.6) | $ (35.0) |
| Avg Gross Profit per Vehicle excl ZEV creds | $ 15.7 | $ 14.7 | $ 16.5 | $ 19.0 | $ 22.0 | $ 23.7 | $ 25.4 | $ 27.0 |
| Gross Margin excl ZEV creds | 30.0% | 26.2% | 29.5% | 32.8% | 37.3% | 39.5% | 41.6% | 43.6% |
| Auto Rev | $ 16,861 | $ 14,602 | $ 21,328 | $ 28,972 | $ 34,693 | $ 40,674 | $ 45,453 | $ 51,022 |
| Auto Gross Profit | $ 5,539 | $ 4,081 | $ 6,656 | $ 9,899 | $ 13,302 | $ 16,429 | $ 19,237 | $ 22,562 |
| Avg Rev per Veh | $ 54.4 | $ 57.3 | $ 57.4 | $ 59.2 | $ 60.0 | $ 60.9 | $ 61.8 | $ 62.7 |
| Avg Gross Profit per Veh | $ 17.9 | $ 16.0 | $ 17.9 | $ 20.2 | $ 23.0 | $ 24.6 | $ 26.2 | $ 27.7 |
| Auto Gross Margin | 32.9% | 27.9% | 31.2% | 34.2% | 38.3% | 40.4% | 42.3% | 44.2% |
| Research & Development | $ (865) | $ (667) | $ (700) | $ (735) | $ (772) | $ (811) | $ (851) | $ (894) |
| Selling, General & Administrative | $ (992) | $ (961) | $ (990) | $ (1,020) | $ (1,050) | $ (1,082) | $ (1,114) | $ (1,147) |
| Restructuring & Other | $ - | $ (142) | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - | $ - |
| Total Operating Expenses | $ (1,857) | $ (1,770) | $ (1,690) | $ (1,755) | $ (1,822) | $ (1,892) | $ (1,965) | $ (2,041) |
| OpEx as % of Auto Gross Profit | 34% | 43% | 25% | 18% | 14% | 12% | 10% | 9% |
| Energy Generation and Storage Rev | $ 616 | $ 866 | $ 1,299 | $ 1,949 | $ 2,923 | $ 4,384 | $ 4,823 | $ 5,305 |
| Energy Gen and Store Cost | $ (688) | $ (769) | $ (1,077) | $ (1,507) | $ (2,261) | $ (3,391) | $ (3,730) | $ (4,103) |
| Energy Gen and Store Gross Profit | $ (72) | $ 97 | $ 222 | $ 441 | $ 662 | $ 993 | $ 1,092 | $ 1,201 |
| Energy Gen and Store Gross Margin % | -12% | 11% | 17% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
| Services & Other Rev | $ 1,279 | $ 1,466 | $ 1,616 | $ 1,766 | $ 1,916 | $ 2,066 | $ 2,216 | $ 2,366 |
| Services & Other Cost | $ (1,286) | $ (1,410) | $ (1,530) | $ (1,650) | $ (1,770) | $ (1,890) | $ (2,010) | $ (2,130) |
| Services & Other Gross Profit | $ (7) | $ 56 | $ 86 | $ 116 | $ 146 | $ 176 | $ 206 | $ 236 |
| Services & Other Gross Margin % | -0.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.0% |
| Income Tax provision | $ (346) | $ (205) | $ (600) | $ (1,200) | $ (1,700) | $ (2,200) | $ (2,500) | $ (3,000) |
| Share count fully diluted (B) | 3.471 | 3.465 | 3.519 | 3.573 | 3.627 | 3.681 | 3.735 | 3.789 |
| GAAP Net Income | $ 3.32 | $ 2.26 | $ 4.67 | $ 7.50 | $ 10.59 | $ 13.51 | $ 16.07 | $ 18.96 |
| GAAP Earnings per Share | $ 0.96 | $ 0.65 | $ 1.33 | $ 2.10 | $ 2.92 | $ 3.67 | $ 4.30 | $ 5.00 |
I'd assume manufacturing capacity at Austin and Berlin. They are still ramping up and don't have those factories dialed in yet since they are new.
Production!
