Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EnzoXYZ]

You really think Elon would have hired a "schmoozer" in 2010 as the "Vice President and Chief Vehicle Engineer" for creating the Model S? And kept him around for a year and a half? That would have been a serious failure on Elon's part.

Arriving:

Tesla Motors Announces Senior Engineering and Manufacturing Executives | Tesla

www.tesla.com

Leaving:

Two Tesla Execs Leave Before 2012 Model S Launch, Stock Falls

Californian automaker Tesla Motors [NSDQ:TSLA] suffered a 19.33 percent drop in share price on Friday last week after it announced two of its key engineers had departed the company months before its 2012 Model S was due to go on sale. Peter Rawlinson, Tesla’s vice president and chief engineer...

www.greencarreports.com

100% and that's why they don't last when the "schmoozer' needed to do actual work. I'll give you another example that I have personal knowledge of: Ricardo Reyes - Tesla's VP of communication back in 2010. The incompetence I over heard would have you scratch your head how they became executive level at any large company (unfortunately twice at Tesla). You definitely can hire the wrong employee and IMO Elon has many times. This is fine as anyone and any company can make 'mistakes.'
Anyways as a shareholder I'm glad he isn't working at Tesla anymore.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

100% and that's why they don't last when the "schmoozer' needed to do actual work. I'll give you another example that I have personal knowledge of: Ricardo Reyes - Tesla's VP of communication back in 2010. The incompetence I over heard would have you scratch your head how they became executive level at any large company (unfortunately twice at Tesla). You definitely can hire the wrong employee and IMO Elon has many times. This is fine as anyone and any company can make 'mistakes.'
Anyways as a shareholder I'm glad he isn't working at Tesla anymore.

Part of what I see that makes Tesla go faster and better than most companies is that they are utterly fearless in firing people who are not producing, even at the executive level where most companies form little good-old-boys clubs who protect each other.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Supposedly Tesla was at $190/kWh in 2017 for the Model 3 pack. The S&X pack was maybe $250/kWh because it was the previous generation using 18650 cells and old pack design. Now Tesla is probably at $100/kWh on average at the pack level.

Martin Viecha said very specifically "almost none of those savings came from cheaper battery costs".

Lower COGS is mostly due to Tesla innovation on production costs.

 

[wipster]

OMG

 

[Krugerrand]

Updated with Matt Smith's estimate . . . h/t to @sroh.

View attachment 852272

Don’t see my estimate on there.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Not able to handle Seattle's hardest turn here, but no big deal as this turn is ridiculous and from my time on Google Maps, it is the most missed turn in Seattle.

Gives me PTSD just to see that on the map.Glad to know I'm not the only one who goes "WTF!" on that switchback. Confusing even if you know where you're going.

Seven way stop, on a hill! WTF were the engineers thinking when they made that intersection? Ok, now I’m seriously thinking that AP has a chance if you’re testing it on that. BTW I lived less than a mile from that location in the 90s an had no idea it existed, even though I rode my bicycle all over Wallingford, Queen Anne, University, Ballard, Ravenna, Fremont, etc.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Do-er/Schmoozer" scale. Peter's words are all very well crafted and rehearsed..

FTFY.

 

[Drumheller]

Don’t see my estimate on there.

While we would all celebrate, I'm not sure $86,000 earnings per share is feasible this quarter. Perhaps next year.

 

[insaneoctane]

Plus S's and X's were considerably less expensive back in 2017. Would be interesting to see the comparison between now and five years ago.

I think the performance 3/Y are approaching what the lower end of what the S/X used to cost…great for stock holders, awful for customers.

 

[Ogre]

Don’t see my estimate on there.

They haven’t invented a spreadsheet that does proper hair ball to dollar conversions yet.

 

[cliff harris]

I think the performance 3/Y are approaching what the lower end of what the S/X used to cost…great for stock holders, awful for customers.

True. Am replacing a 2015 model S with a model Y performance, in red, with FSD. The price is about the same!
TBH the performance Y is overpriced, if I was more price sensitive or was assured I'd get the Long Range tomorrow, I'd cancel my order. I'm looking forward to a time when Tesla can drop the model Y prices everywhere and get closer to being truly mass market.
Something tells me that production levels in 2023 are going to be insane and my wish will come true

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Part of what I see that makes Tesla go faster and better than most companies is that they are utterly fearless in firing people who are not producing, even at the executive level where most companies form little good-old-boys clubs who protect each other.

Henrik Fisker's pointless ass was hired to create the entire exterior of the Model S. When it became clear he just wanted to steal Tesla's recipe, he was fired and the engineers just built whatever exterior look cut the air best.

That's a mistake followed by bold action. Worked out pretty good I think.

The standard corporate response would've been to double down and insist the hiring was pure genius.

 

[brantse]

It seems that Elon doesn't agree with the market and everyone yesterday that started saying that at least one more 0.75% raise is guaranteed, if not two.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569951122231787521

 

[JusRelax]

It seems that Elon doesn't agree with the market and everyone yesterday that started saying that at least one more 0.75% raise is guaranteed, if not two.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569951122231787521

I'm not sure if I'm just reading this incorrectly, but I'd like to clarify that I don't think Elon made any comment in this statement about what he thinks the Fed will do. He only stated what he thinks the Fed should do.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Biden to announce approval of $900 million in U.S. EV charging funding | REUTERS (1 hr ago)

Biden to announce approval of $900 million in U.S. EV charging funding

President Joe Biden on Wednesday will announce the approval of the first $900 million in U.S. funding to build EV charging stations in 35 states as part of a $1 trillion infrastructure law approved in November, the White House said.

www.reuters.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

August PPI report shows U.S. wholesale inflation moderating for a second month

Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2024 M02 Results

www.bls.gov

Hedgies/shortzes tried a fear-inducing bear raid prior to the BLS announcement; it didn't work

QQQ realtime chart below:

 

[Nocturnal]

It would be odd if the US was really still seeing runaway inflation. Europe, China etc. are beginning to spend on stimulus even.

UK inflation rate unexpectedly dips to 9.9% as fuel prices decline

U.K. inflation slowed in August on the back of a fall in fuel prices, though food prices continued to rise as the country's cost of living crisis persists.

www.cnbc.com

China Sees Third Quarter as Key for Rollout of Stimulus Measures

China said it will accelerate its stimulus rollout in the third quarter as it tries to recover from a second quarter marred by pandemic-related losses.

www.bloomberg.com

Housing market is in a reasonable decline.

Mortgage demand from homebuyers falls 29% since last year, as interest rates surge past 6%

Rates are surging due in large part to the Fed's hawkish inflation policies, and that's weighing on mortgage demand.

www.cnbc.com

Let's hope JPow starts to relax a bit.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569951402004447234

 

[brantse]

I'm not sure if I'm just reading this incorrectly, but I'd like to clarify that I don't think Elon made any comment in this statement about what he thinks the Fed will do. He only stated what he thinks the Fed should do.

Thanks for correcting. Yes, I think Elon is implying (and has been hinting at this for a while) that he is beginning to see significant input cost declines, and that the fed is at risk of making a policy mistake by hiking rates too much.

Certainly the fed has a lot of data, but we see how well they used that data when making the decisions that got us here. I think I'll side with the guy who is building out businesses and industries that exceed many of the worlds nation's GDP than the federal reserve.

 

[EVWatcher]

Thanks for correcting. Yes, I think Elon is implying (and has been hinting at this for a while) that he is beginning to see significant input cost declines, and that the fed is at risk of making a policy mistake by hiking rates too much.

Certainly the fed has a lot of data, but we see how well they used that data when making the decisions that got us here. I think I'll side with the guy who is building out businesses and industries that exceed many of the worlds nation's GDP than the federal reserve.

Musk is brilliant. He’s not infallible. He was wrong about covid being over a few months after it started. I’m sure he’s been wrong about many things but he knows how to hire and evaluate smart people to steer him straight.

Not saying he’s wrong. But I’m not gonna blindly accept he’s right over head of an org that exists to decide what’s best for these things.